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Just get one at 1/2ish to get evens the double....if you can. 1/3 with most most books to win and my plan FWIW is the single only. I'm looking to win 1k so it's a case of 3k to win the 1 k or sweat on the double but with only 1k risked.
Opinions welcome with only one selection mentioned. Of course the 1/2ish to make it evens doesn't need to run at Cheltenham..
Opinions welcome with only one selection mentioned. Of course the 1/2ish to make it evens doesn't need to run at Cheltenham..
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Take State Man out and it's a 2/11 chance imo...
Result Analysis My Ratings Past Winners POS. (DRAW) HORSE / SP TRAINER / JOCKEY AGE WGT OR TS RPR MR 1 Runner Jacket 2. Constitution Hill 1/12F Nico de Boinville Nicky Henderson 6 1110 175 118 163 – Took keen hold, jumped well, prominent, nudged along to lead 2 out, soon clear, easily (tchd 1/11) 2 9½ Runner Jacket 5. Rubaud (FR) 15/2 Harry Cobden Paul Nicholls 5 1110 149 107 146 – Led, pushed along and headed 2 out, soon no chance with winner |
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Just watch the race and enjoy a Champion. There's 12,000 other races this year to have a bet on.
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Are you going in large A/P Stew or waiting till the day ?
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Think even a dog would have CH as the winner barring incident or it having an off day.
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Might be the wrong sort of grass.
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Maybe consider the two leaders in the market ie Constitution Hill (1/3) and State Man (3/1) - both head and shoulders above the rest, but adjust the odds accordingly. Then lay-off State Man (3.23 odd boost/nrnb) to return stake on the day for a free carry if both selections turn up; I'm fairly certain State Man will be shorter than 3.23 (probably 9/4) on the day.
But, not a proposition for me unless it was for an upgrade eg led to oled tv. Good luck though! |
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"I'm fairly certain State Man will be shorter than 3.23 (probably 9/4) on the day". If CH is there he won't be anywhere near as short as that.
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Maybe 5/2 at best would be my opinion. We'll see on the day.
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On the day you won't get much more ( if anything ) than 25% on your money CH. ( 1/4 ) That would mean State Man at about 4/1. But you might have your account closed with an EW bet.
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Agree with Howard, not sure how Stateman can be shorter than 3.32 on the day. If he is I'll be having a monster bet on CH.
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TOp 2O ExcUSES pOST RACe
1. Low Sun 2. He was as fit as we could get him and probably needed another run 3. Saddle Slipped 4. Lost a shoe 5. Slow pace 6. They went off too quick 7. In Season 8. Needs 3 miles now 9. Lost more that one shoe 10. He wasn’t himself today (whatever the f*** that means) 11. Covid 19 12. Ground was too tacky 13. Ground was too firm 14. Prep Run for the Dubai World Cup 15. Too keen had never settled 16. Got himself in a duel with Stateman and got mugged late up the hill 17. It’s a awfully hot day and he got worked up before hand 18. Localised Aurora Borealis 19. Time for him to go chasing 20. Palpitating heart |
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"Good news is.................Unibet laid him for bundles!
Thanks Nicky |
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If there are 8+ runners State Man will be stupidly shorter than you'd imagine for obvious reasons , then Hulk will start yet another repetitive thread on comparing ISP to the win exchange price.
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Excuse 21- Unibet says not today
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stewarty b31 Jan 24 23:10Joined: 02 Aug 02 | Topic/replies: 17,009 | Blogger: stewarty b's blog
Just get one at 1/2ish to get evens the double....if you can. 1/3 with most most books to win and my plan FWIW is the single only. I'm looking to win 1k so it's a case of 3k to win the 1 k or sweat on the double but with only 1k risked. Opinions welcome with only one selection mentioned. Of course the 1/2ish to make it evens doesn't need to run at Cheltenham.. But the 2/5 CH DOES need to run @ Cheltenham .Hence its 2/5!!! Not 1/4 as he will be on the day if he shows. |
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Not sure what Impossible is smoking. But if CH runs & State Man is sorter than 3.23(wheres that price from) 9/4 .Its time 4 me to pack the game in .
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If geoff is correct about 1/4 stew and you want the 1.4 exchange price as of now then effectively you're backing 1.12 that it'll make the post time.
Pays your money takes your chance  |
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For a teddy bear like yourself,stewarty...Rangers HT/FT v Livingston on Saturday..4/9 Sportsbook....
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Upcoming races / Prize Money
Champion Hurdle £253,000 Saudi Red Sea Handicap 15f - £1.25m Man if he was mine I’d be saying Allah Akbar and Inshalah and Habibi and selling out asap Last season Get Shirty picked up £200k for finishing third and Nate the Grate £62k for 5th and I’d like to think CH would have the measure of both in a flat race. |
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It's another world ELG and we can't even compete with inflationary prize money never mind at that level , the time is fast approaching if not arrived when so called " prestige " means jack **** and the irresistible rewards become the No1 priority , however wealthy the owners may be.
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more utter nonsense from the scottish DG.
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Wouldn't be surprised if constitution hill doesn't run. Nicky not happy as he's only 99% right.
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I'd also be surprised slicks but there's still a price you need to be comfortable with and also to alleviate from the stress of dreading seeing that headline reading " fav out of big race " one morning eating your cornflakes.
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Chappie on 'Barstewards' says he heard that CH has 'had a wind-op'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NSjtWjBX-XM @10.30 mins in |
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Hendo had a wind-op? It would not surprise me. He did sound a bit croaky and rough.
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Surely that should be made public if it is true we the Punters have a right to know.
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Dunno Acey. Just thought I'd mention it.
had to rewind it - double-take like  |
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'acey', it's nrnb maybe not with his sponsor.
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Champion Hurdle entries are being pulled out regularly, even though Oddschecker still quote Vauban and Lossiemouth. One of the guru's may be able to post the smallest field numerically ever for the race; we could be close this year.
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Dont think we'll be matching the 3 runners in 1932. In more recent times, 7 runners in Lanzarote's Champion was matched last year.
Could be another post war low this year.. |
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Thank you fairweather
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At present, last year's prices were very similar to this year's and the CSF paid 4/6. Might be the way forward imv..
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What we thinking 4 or 5 horse race this year
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Maybe but first seven get a prize.
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stew
When looking at a f/c in a race of that shape should check the w/o fav price just in case , sometimes the discrepancy in price isn't worth the extra risk really as the f/c is effectively a double but the w/o fav price a single. |
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Agree to a certain extent Hayden but no surprise if the Fav goes off at 1/4 now even 2/9. If that is the case perhaps the CSF might only pay 2/5. I was just giving an alternative because it is my belief now that the FAV will be shorter than 1/3.
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The Champion hurdle is usually run at a very fast pace,if a horse happens to fumble just one hurdle it will be very difficult to get back into the race.CH is no Annie Power ,and Nick is no Ruby,you all have being warned by the Brass.
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** Also. let's say the FAV goes off at 2/7. What price would you get the 2nd FAV without the FAV? That said, I know where you are coming from.
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