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2/5 Constitution Hill on here to win the Champion Hurdle. Would to have a bad day to get beat imo, h
2/5 Constitution Hill on here to win the Champion Hurdle. Would to have a bad day to get beat imo, h
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On top of that brass the Fav didn't scope well after LTO and misses it's prep-race.
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Funnily enough Hendo said they were not going to scope him again until AFTER his next piece of fast work. Must be confident he is OK
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stew
You'll never know unless you have a look on the day mate , it's another punter offering odds don't forget not a bookmaker and the special markets sometimes resemble pool betting rather than matrix odds. Just suggesting you check out both and take a view which gives best value for money , nothing to do whether you think Chill is a certainly or not it's about the related price. |
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brassneck08 Feb 24 12:43Joined: 13 Feb 03 | Topic/replies: 19,641 | Blogger: brassneck's blog
The Champion hurdle is usually run at a very fast pace,if a horse happens to fumble just one hurdle it will be very difficult to get back into the race.CH is no Annie Power , Correct Brass. Your not going to see C.Hill throw the race away @ the final hurdle @ the festival. |
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State Man will be 1/5 without CH.
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Can readily see CH 1/4 / 2/9 if less than 8 runners if another rag tuns up to make it 8 yer more likely to get 1/3 / 2/7.
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Any idea what the price was last year geoff ?
No doubt it should be 1/5 and expect it to be around that but won't stop me looking just in case , life can be full of surprises. The suggestion to stew was a general one as well really , should always check the comparison be it Champion Hurdle or Plumpton. |
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If you mean State Man without CH last year Hayden .No i dont. @ a guess would have been more 2/5 as Vauban was a reasonable contender .This year daylight is the best option to give State Man a run without C.H.
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It should really be shorter w/o fav than Chill is to win the race as there seems to be more chance of State Man winning the race than it does any of the other beating State Man , such is the shape of the race.
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Yes agree
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Hayden08 Feb 24 13:31Joined: 15 Jan 02 | Topic/replies: 12,716 | Blogger: Hayden's blog
Any idea what the price was last year geoff ? No doubt it should be 1/5 and expect it to be around that but won't stop me looking just in case , life can be full of surprises. The suggestion to stew was a general one as well really , should always check the comparison be it Champion Hurdle or Plumpton. Did you mean a box of chocolates Hayden? |
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Something far more valuable than chocolates stew on occasions especially in both unmanaged sports markets and markets than don't draw so much attention.
The exchange motto is a simple one , if you don't ask you don't get  |
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Have you 'won' the requisite £3000 pot to put on the great horse yet?
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his mobilty scooter is on Gumtree.
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4/11 State Man w/o C.Hill NRNB. Is a steal with Bet 364 plus 1.
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and is a far better bet than C.Hill 2/5 done yer dough if he doesnt show.
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Sir Tom found another chink in the hoss' armour apparently.
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SM lovely horse but no world beater imo. The harder he tries to win 2nd place in danger imo. Of course it depends what runs maybe 4 or 5 runners.
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Do agree with geoff in that 2nd vs 3rd looks more daylight than 2nd vs 1st potentially when you look at the field but that said Howard does make a fair point as we've seen it so often when trying to win costs at the end of the race.
My mind is to wait until post time anyway then decide what's the best option , if any. |
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much invested Geoff?
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£138 .so far. if anybody wants to put up 2/5 again i will take it.
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Take C.H out the equation theres naff all to challenge State Man even if he puts it up to C.H. Canna get a bet on with 364 plus 1. all accounts up the swanee years ago.
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Everything in the race should/will be ridden to beat State Man ( not CH ) but I hope you collect geoff.
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Dont think they will howard. If they have any sense will do a Zanahiyr and ride for £48k for 3rd place. If you ride to try & beat State Man yer gunna end up chucking 3rd and even 4th away. Will be 2 seperate races within a race imo.
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Wouldnt suprise me if Elliot reverted back to hurdles with Zanahiyr for this prospect .On his run against Bob Olinger gives him as good a chance as any to pick up 3rd and hes done it for last 2 years.
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Certainly appears to be a match, and not really a close one.
The way i see it, forget AP or trying to 2nd guess tactics. Back CH on the day with what you can afford to lose without losing sleep, watch him win on TV, go collect and have a few drinks to celebrate. That's the theory anyway |
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How can the others be ridden to beat SM when they aren't going to do anything to effect it, SM will lead followed by CH and then the rest most probably at a steady pace.
The also rans will be hoping to pick up the pieces should something go wrong with the front two they won't be trying to effect the race themselves because it will likely cost them their own chance. The deal here is that "the rest" will be viewing SM in the exact same way as they view CH, none of them are there to try and get second, they are all there in order to try and get third. |
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I think the jockeys of the rest bar the fav and 2nd fav will play it by sight eg if either CH and SM are infront 2 out they'd be looking for a best 3rd place. Similarly, if SM is past by CH off the last bend; I do not think SM will make the running or be ridden from the front or infront of CH.
If the real CH turns up the rest will be running for places no matter how much stronger SM is this year as intimated by his trainer; CH will just breeze past SM off the final bend as if SM is standing still. |
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I would guess SM will try to lead at a slow pace though something else will likely go on. If nothing goes a decent CH might well lead a long way out.
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I think most of us are reading it very similar with S.M leading @ a steady pace with a sprint from 2nd last. He was held up last year and gifted C.H 3 or 4 easy lengths so wont repeat that .and setting a very strong gallop hes in danger of just setting it up for C.H with potential to lose 2nd cant see him doing that either.
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Seems to be a fair bit of momentum behind SM. Think we're going to get a big price about CH.
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Sorry what’s going on here with this thread someone wanting to stir up a decent price for him perchance?
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Pegasus over hurdles but with an off day the second fav is tremndous. Notihng else within 2 streets of these two.
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Think everyone agrees with that Eric tbh without much exception , the debate is more about the price and whether to get involved now or wait until the day ( like myself ) and also whether the preferred option is the f/cast or w/o fav market.
Good luck to all whatever you decide |
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well aye nico's gona sit behind state man going a crawl?
walofs |
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Chappie on 'Barstewards' says he heard that CH has 'had a wind-op'
[b]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NSjtWjBX-XM[/b] @10.30 mins in Lee said he'd heard all wasn't right with CH |
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7/4 now!!
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For once I didn't carry through with my policy of laying any Cheltenham odds on shot at Xmas. I just thought it was throwing money away as Nicky only had one target and he looked unbeatable. I would be a layer of all of the Henderson runners now.
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Stew you could could stop a train FFS
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I have bored you with this many times but every horse is evens to run and evens not to run up until the 5 day stage. So many things can go wrong at home and then there is the increasing reluctance to take on anything rated 5lb clear.
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