Martingale success stories

unless their IT software was supplied by Fujitsu.....

A good few years ago me and my son done it online with Black and Red for very small stakes, we won 200 over the weekend playing all day taking it in turns. I wrote out thousands of combinations before and we followed it, we were banned by the Monday and had terrible trouble getting our money.

I had to send a copy of passport to Malta and other details, they said it never arrived even though it was recorded and had to send it all again.
They are a well known company

Will always fail in the end. How long you get away with it just depends on luck.

eg Roulette betting on red up to 10 times to win £1 with a £1,023 bank (£1, £2, £4, £8, £16, £32, £64, £128, £256, £512) is simply the same as risking the whole £1,023 on a single 1-in-784 shot to win £1. You'll win almost every time, but still terrible value.

It will end in sorrow eventually. Roulette is an Independent Trial Process. I was once entertained to a superb evening in a casino in Brighton. After a delicious meal I watched at a table. There were a lot of systems players at the table. Zero came up 3 times in 5 spins & all the systems players were totally wiped out. BUT a little old lady who just put £1 on 2 numbers every time, one of which was zero, went home very happy!

eg Roulette betting on red up to 10 times to win £1 with a £1,023 bank (£1, £2, £4, £8, £16, £32, £64, £128, £256, £512) is simply the same as risking the whole £1,023 on a single 1-in-784 shot to win £1. You'll win almost every time, but still terrible value.

Take the 1-784 shot everytime, once saw 14 reds in a row in a casino.

if ewe have unlimited funds and a casino has unlimited bets ewe cannot fail to hit a winner.

What's the least you can put on now, from memory we were playing for pence, just text my son if he remembers.

I believe in London now the minimum bet on the individual numbers is £5 & on the even shots it's £25. Also at blackjack they now shuffle the cards after every 3 or 4 hands making card counting impossible. Casinos should be avoided if your prime intention is to make money. I hope this clarifies the situation.

All loss recovery systems are doomed to end in failure

If you don't believe me toss a coin 1 Billion times and record results. GL

Dr Pessimistus Slicer, what was your doctorate in again, remind me?!

Have a gues!!!Dr Aristotle Slicer PhD MB BS B Pharm MRCVS DRCOG

My Son text me back..

We were playing for 2p, think we put £40 on quite a few times. Didn't we get banned after two days, did we win just over 200


2p 4p 8p 16p 32p 64p 1.28  2.56  5.12  10.24  20.48  40.96  81.92

I wrote down  B-B-R-B-R-B-R-R-R-B-B-B R-B etc etc

Think 20p is minimum bet now..

BRRRRRRR turn the heating up.

used to have a laugh and joke with an old guy at work about this ,who fancied trying to double a small 18 grand pension pot he had , on red/black, ev/odds, as he figured 18 was nothing really so 36 he could do something with or bust
but even if casino played ball how do you no they wont say thanks but no thanks ,after youve done say 10 grand and wont accept your 20 grand bet ?

!st time poster.........all casinos display on or near the table as to what their maximum bet is on an individual number, even money chances , columns, etc, etc.  They will accept your bet up to this figure at all times.

I thought the Martingale was part of the rites of passage for young gamblers. I tried it whwn I was about 16 and had some success before the inevitable wiped me out

it cannot be done. although i seem to recall a geezer who saved up about 250k and stuck it on red in a vegas casino. could be wrong

no punter ever expects to win in a casino, unless they are playing poker against mugs like me who turn up laggo

punted horses for over 5o yrs but never been in a casino or bought a lottery tkt/scratchcard
was once in a 6 star hotel in jamica for 3 weeks with a casino on site ,was going to have a go but when i went i spent all my time watching/enjoying atmosphere /freebies and never had a bet was going to try blackack

Inside The Edge on Amazon interesting if you like blackjack. The 2 lads who sold everything and put on red in Vegas did win mitolo.

good. must have been agonising deciding when to move in

the anti wokies wont like it but did anyone watch LIMITLESS on sat night where hubby was convinced he new million quid answer and he did but his mrs did her best to talk him out of it, you not only need to no the answer but willing to write off a million quid if your wrong,if your not wealthy to begin with a huge sum of money pays tricks wityh you mind,fair play to bloke for backing his uni memory days to within a yr,and now i,ll no the answer for evermore

Brilliant, well done him.

Ive been doing it with Both Teams To Score, just random games, finding games ar around 2.1, start off at a quid, then double and double and double on each loser etc

Ive hit game 7 twice which means its £64 ffs, yes its landed both times on the seventh match but fook me its stressful by that point

Another game I do draw a line at £128 that waaaay to much for a bet that in my opinion should be landing 1/3 at least in my opinion

Bookies will ban or limit you though, so its a none starter as the exchange is naturally more limited liquidity wise for btts esp

Martingale on favs is free money. Back 1 nap of the day at 1.8-4.0 and increase stakes accordingly.

@Sontaran I'd rather martingale BTTS NO or Under 2.5. What are the odds 7 football games with defensive teams will have 3 goals? When you bet on the overs you get stressed everytime HT is 0:0.

It's quite a simple calculation. How much the punter is willing to bet vs how much the casino is willing to bet i.e. total bankroll vs total casino funds. Of course casino's have a max bet limit well below any financial values which would jeopardize their business model. So once a punter has hit that limit due to a bad run, they are knackered. Monte Carlo casino publishes route results and I have in the back of my mind that they recorded black landed 26 times in a row in 2013, which was still the record for that casino the last time I look.

Incidentally Kerry Packer took on Aspinall's in London in the 70s or 80s and broke them and they had to close for a while. I believe he was playing blackjack and effectively adapting the martingale system, taking advantage of Aspinall's standing any bet.  For many years I used to play in roulette in a casino in La Rochelle when on holiday and employed an adaption of the martingale system with a set of numbers I just backed all night until I got ahead, never lost in that bricks and mortar casino. I tried to do the same about 20 years ago online when all the casino's sprung up with sensible bonuses at the time and failed miserably almost straight away. for example Victor Chandler casino playing blackjack, I managed to lose over 30 straight hands despite playing perfect strategy. Thankfully that cured me of the folly of believing there is anything straight about a computer controlled game of chance...

I didn’t believe black could come out 26 times in a row. You were correct. It looks like it happened in 1913 though.

I’ve been rounding down to make the doubling easier to do, but is that about 65million to one?

THEN THEY MOVED THE MAGNET TO UNDER RED

Storm Alert 17 Jan 24 10:57 

I managed to lose over 30 straight hands despite playing perfect strategy. Thankfully that cured me of the folly of believing there is anything straight about a computer controlled game of chance...

before ewe began did ewe think the hands were random? Ffs

the guy who put his savings on red was an english guy, a few weeks back i noticed a youtube video of him going back and doing it again, but i think it's a bit of a cop out, he's betting nothing like he did the first time and it looks more like a set up with the casino for pr.

the video for the first one is also on youtube, he's on a roped off table and it's he's set it up with them in advance, he's not a walk in, he bets $135k ish, back then i'd imagine that was less than £100k

I managed to lose over 30 straight hands despite playing perfect strategy. Thankfully that cured me of the folly of believing there is anything straight about a computer controlled game of chance...

before ewe began did ewe think the hands were random? Ffs Happy



oh dear. its all a fix. again

do ewe be leave a computer generated hand is 100% random tolo?

yes and no

you can never be sure its totally random, and even boffins say as much. but its not deliberate or a fiddle

for the purposes of online card games its adequate

Is there a book on  this topic , must be the thinnest book on the market if so.

that would be the winners almanac 2023 by gays

Slipped my mind that one mitolo , 2nd thinnest

Can't be thinner than The LGBT+ Tour Guide to Mecca.

ffs , 3rd thinnest     

my wild years-jacob rees-mogg

Final revised opinion , top twenty   

mitolo17 Jan 24 14:17Joined: 13 Apr 21 | Topic/replies: 4,123 | Blogger: mitolo's blog
my wild years-jacob rees-mogg

was the question, have you ever seen jacob rees-mogg and happyhibby in the same room?

Thirteen against the Bank by Norman Leigh is a good read - reverse labouchere on all 6 evens shots....make the bank increase their stakes after they have lost.

Jan 17, 2024 -- 9:58AM, Gaze733 wrote:

@Sontaran I'd rather martingale BTTS NO or Under 2.5. What are the odds 7 football games with defensive teams will have 3 goals? When you bet on the overs you get stressed everytime HT is 0:0.

It would make more sense yeah

But I cant bring myself to do no btts as it goes against my natural bias for goals, but 6 games in a row have been no on two separate occasions within a week of doing the trial. And not once has three landed in a row, only hitting two in a row once. So its heavily weighted to no from a short number data.

Like the AFCON, so far its 8/12 for unders, two of them landing very late and lucky for over 2.5 backers. Good odds for btts yes amd over 2.5 goals but with good reason.

Bare in mind you need odds of 2.1 even 2.2 plus for yes btts

Trust me its brutal and stressful if you know have a particular game in mind and think randomly picking one will suffice for an easy little profit

SS

Don't follow soccer at all myself but what you're suggesting looks like a numbers game to me rather than any personal opinion , if i was forced to play Martingale ( i'd need a gun to my head ) i'd play your 2.1 or 2.2 suggested immaterial of who's playing , wouldn't matter if it was Brazil vs Argentina or Crewe vs Exeter but in any case i'd go against the public by using negative outcomes as your criteria rather than need what every other Tom , Dick and Harry wants to happen.

Unless you're playing because you want to watch tv games and want a more high profile interest then that may be different , depends what you want out of it and what your aims/goals are but have to remember this is one hell of a random sport you're dealing with here and a £512 requirement could arrive quicker than you could imagine.

Biggest question you need to ask yourself is how far are you prepared to go with something that will only be a small winner when you consider what you've lost to end on that winning bet , also bearing in mind you're playing a near 100% book so whatever your personal opinion may be it's a near perfect market so there's no true value just a personal choice acting as a selection criteria.

In a perfect world ( you wouldn't choose to play martingale ) this would be classed as a strategy that shouldn't be subsidizing other bets or the reverse so effectively this should be your only betting outlay , which i'd imagine would be difficult.

Best of luck however you play   

Hayden

That's exactly what you say a numbers game

And I was prepared to go to £128 which was 8 games in total, £255 balance, and I've absolutely knocked it on the head and decided too after hitting the 7th match a second time and it winning still made me say feck it.

If it can hit game 7 twice in such a short amount of bets it's a no goer for me.

Imagine starting at £10...

Stress isn't worth it at those stakes

Nice1 mate , good decision 

Not sure this fits in this topic but yesterday I found out that the most likely score for any football match is 1-1. This surprised me. Apparently the sample was over 291,000 games and 11% finished 1-1.  That makes it a 9/1 shot on average.  The problem is of course that scores depend upon the relative  skills of the teams opposing each other. The other thing from the sample was that total goals odd or even is more likely to end up odd. Bet365 usually offer 39/40 for this bet.

All I can say really is the old method will lead to massive tension and high stakes eventually. It's worth trying with a small balance but you soon see the problem you'll face.

Brians

1-1 is a common scoreline and two evenly matched sides will play it out a lot esp in the English leagues

Casino you tube videos watched a few of how they card count and claim all these winnings but all are heavily edited to seem they win lots and you never see the print outs of what they have won same as the horse racing claims and all they have to do is say right this Saturday we are live but they don’t it’s edited and that’s fiddling, so I’d take them all with a pinch of salt as it’s not true it’s a good con

I had to send a copy of passport to Malta and other details, they said it never arrived even though it was recorded and had to send it all again.
They are a well known company

Name and shame please Billy - the truth should be out there on these type, when you've won fair and square.

Hanrik Larsson.242 GOALS IN 313 MATCHES FOR CELTIC.Surely there must be a martingale success story in these stats

So lets all fast forward our lifes video to today.Are we all sitting on a possible Martingale success story in the making involving Erling Haaland of Man city?Think about it!This could be your lucky day.And then you can all come back next year and tell us how you found the secret to riches beyond your wildest dreams.
TIP."ITS NOT THE CAR THAT WINS,ITS THE DRIVER OF THE CAR,WHEN YOU USE THE MARTINGALE SYSTEM."

often wondered if there was a way using some kind of martingale system with trading or cash out.

No staking system can ever overcome making bad value bets. End of.

Don't waste your time looking.

But surely the about Martingale is it can destroy you even if you place value bets - if I pay you 2.01 for a coin-toss, if you bet at level stakes you'll win long-term, if you insist on doubling up every time you lose you will eventually hit a point where your bank or my stake limit stop you playing?

Start with a stake of 0.01 a bet and a bank of £1m - set it to auto play and check in  from time to time to collect your winnings.

You can have mathematical value in some event every gambling day that can be proven but proven value still needs time before you can guarantee anything as opposed to a one off.

If someone offered me 2.2 a coin toss for £100k i'd refuse the bet

If someone offered me 2.2 a coin toss for 1,000 spins at £1k a pop i'd snap his hand off.


Good luck all 

Sorry meant 100 spins...

Or If you are multi millionaire Rico you sit there all day watching those pennies mount up....

That becomes a utility question about the value of 100k to you , not about the odds offered.

Just an example Johnny to make the point that in my opinion even proven value needs time , so irrespective of what it means to an individual in this case.

Pretty sure plenty will disagree but to me doing what i perceive as the right thing would still apply.

ask someone if theyd risk 50 quid on the toss of a coin and most will say no

tell them they will get 100, or 120 or.. eventually everyone would risk it

How can you "prove value in a real life environment daily" - You only think you have value ...your results over a period of time might point towards your evaluations being correct , but as for being 100% certain ? - I'm not so sure - unless you are "cheating" or arbing ?

Some punters getting "value" on a coin toss over multiple spins would still end up losers ..

Some punters taking odds on on a coin toss over multiple spins would still end up winners...

How do you know with certainty you are a good punter or just a lucky punter ? I'm not sure you ever do with 100% certainty...

Surely you can prove value in (eg) a coin toss or a fair (real physical or non-fixed RNG) roulette wheel?

But equally, as Hayden says, you want to do your betting over enough tosses/spins that the chance of you seeing returns close to theoretical average becomes very large?

But those opportunities don't exist in real life - it's all theoretical - Where are the real life examples ? - it's all subjective , personal opinion on value.

As johnny suggests value is only a real measure when you know everything about the events e.g. a 50/50 coin toss.

In any betting where there are any unknowns value is always a 'guesstimate'

I've always said that value is just a posh word for a personal opinion unless it can be proven mathematically , of course these aren't real life examples as we're all just trying to make a point aren't we.

If you're patient and wait for them to present themselves there a many proven values every week , arb's would have to be included in proven value as they are mathematically just that , there are others about but they present themselves via racecards rather than generated by an individual.

Hayden talking plenty of sense as usual.
My two penneth would be that staking systems have their place in gambling, but none will work long term unless your selections make a level stakes profit. When they do, certain staking systems can then increase that profit.

Even arbing is subjective and is not risk free ...Which side of the trade do you plays first ?  What stakes ? What happens if price shifts or you get knocked back on one side of the trade ? Should you take the small no risk profit or run the side of the trade that "in your opinion" offers the most value ?

I agree with fairweather.

You are assuming that because your records indicate a profit ,(although you've not mentioned anything about number of bets included in your sample), that you have convinced yourself that you can spot value - How do you know that you haven't just been lucky ?

Take all those points Johnny but think the serious arbers ( if there's any left and i've never been one of them ) play the game more cleverly than to be caught out that way , like keeping stakes attainable , checking limits first and placing bets fairly simultaneously.

Not sure there's too may left that can get on these days as you don't hear much about it these days via forums etc , never appealed to me personally as nicking 2% or so to put an a/c under scrutiny but also being confident the 2% would drag my overall performance down rather than increase has never appealed , even though it may be free money.

We all know the bigger the value the bigger the bet  -  but how do we ever know what the correct price should be ? - we just don't , we can only guess what we think is the fair price , so we can never accurately calculate the correct amount to stake.

I'd play the side of the trade that I though offered the value - increasing variance , but winning more long term if my opinion is right (enough times) - but I still might be winning because I am lucky (or losing if I am unlucky) - You can't be certain , all you can do is look at your results with more certainty as the number of bets increases.

One persons perception of value will end up being another persons lay or the exchange wouldn't exist.

You have to prove/confirm it mathematically to class it as true value otherwise it's just your own personal opinion.

If you can prove it then great as your over broke becomes another persons over round.

In all honesty though i'm talking about utilizing what bookmakers are forced to offer as there's never really any value in the 100% book world on the exchange and that really is as personal opinion as it gets.

Pleasing though isn't it that we can all find different ways to make it work and still debate different strategies   

My point is that you can't prove it mathematically in the real world....

Technically though Johnny whatever your methods you can prove it just by finding a book under 100%.

Also the arbers i've known ( or rather had to deal with ) have no interest in thinking which side of the coin they want to be successful , they all play piggy in the middle and want something for their trouble so the last thing arbers want to do is express an opinion.

Off for some food , not had time for a bite today with that Rybakina match going on seemingly forever.


Best of luck all   

Two horse race - prices 2.00 , 2.04 - What can we determine here :-

- One of the horses is definitely value , but we don't know which one.
- Both horses could be value, probably unlikely ,  albeit not much value in either if this statement is true.
- Quite likely one of the horses will be bad value, but we don't know which one.

And how to the subjective bit - How to play ? Is there a right way or a wrong way ?

Should you nick the small guaranteed profit , but almost certainly one of the two bets placed will be a bet at a bad value price , thereby giving away a slice of the value on the other bet ?

OR - Try to maximise your profit by using your opinion to pick the horse that , in your opinion is the incorrect price ?

the best value martin gale cistern known to man is back the outsider in the cricket coin toss markets.

no it isnt

get a security guard to accompany the captains as near as he can to the middle, while linked up on the phone to whoever

as soon as the toss is known he will relay it and you have 6 seconds before the price moves violently

market suspends when ump tosses the coin.

Drone footage zooming in on the coin as it lands.

Don't all Martingale/investment/betting systems fail cause of "black swans".... events that you cannot put into models but have that 0.0001% of occuring
18 reds in a row on a single zero table is 0.0001%,,

Nick Leeson would have got away with it only for the Kobe Earthquake.

Also Russia defaulting on its debt was the start undoing of LTCM
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/longtermcapital.asp

Ronnie or Novak best martingale system but need very deep pockets

There’s that guy on YouTube who bakes stuff but doubles the eggs every time he does a video on whatever he’s making.

One video was like 10 minutes of him breaking all the eggs.

Cruised past a million subs in short order and closing in on 2mil.

If you want a small snapshot of why Martingale will not work, look at the coin toss of India in ODI's

They Have Lost 13 In A Row

So, if you were starting out trying to win 1 rupee on India winning the toss...
You'd have to be putting 16 thousand odd on the next one to achieve it
Seems reasonable to me!

Thread title is an oxymoron.

never ever played an online casino..

just went on bf casino (virtual) had £5 on black 6 times..landed on red 6 times.

#went on casino live (real table) had £5 on black 6 times..4 black and 2 red.

question,why would anyone play on virtual?

to back red 6  times

ty al giv it a go later.

martingale can work with variable odds betting like the horses by setting a bank limit and earning more banks than you bust - the thing is to be successful it requires your average win strike rate relative to your average odds to be such that it will also be successful at level stakes and  as it’s easier to scale level stakes you’d be better off binning your successful martingale system and betting level stakes …. I think

the non-financial benefit of the martingale system though is that it’s like Russian roulette betting in that you wake up each day thinking is this the day I lose everything - keeps it interesting