cheltenham festival fancies

Good luck with the thread, hope you get some interest.

I put mine up on the bumpers/novice hurdles thread yesterday.

Sadly, there seems to a can't too bothered attitude amongst bookmakers this year. For instance the Arkle should have a w/o Marine Nationale market already.

yeah dd hopefully get some input , so many races to go through its hard to cover them on your own and sometimes ya can pick up on something someone posts which can spark an interest that would have passed you by , i will have a look at your thread thanks and good luck .

Foyles.
Good  luck a very good article  just looking  at the book got one loose the fav laid at 7/2 sad to say nothing  changes.
Ronnie.

quilixios all being well should go off from the front or prominent and his good jumping and cruising speed will be a help ,wether he can beat the fav or the others we will see but ticks a few boxes imo.

thanks ronnie plenty can happen yet as we know and its a novice chase the fav just the 1 run but may go for the irish arkle as could quilixios so we could learn a lot more from that.best of luck ronnie and hope you are well.

sir tom (pricewise ) put up mymate mozzie ew for this in yesterdays post ,could anyone put up the write up if possiblle ,thanks !

My Mate Mozzie
Arkle Chase (Cheltenham, March 12)
1pt each-way at 25-1

As the old saying goes, you should never be afraid of one horse, but I'm not sure those rules apply to Marine Nationale, who has looked unbeatable so far and could not have made a more impressive start to his chasing career.

He was miles too good for Facile Vega in the Supreme last season and on his first start over fences at Leopardstown over Christmas he won in a canter – and in a much quicker time than it took Dinoblue to win the Grade 1 chase over the same course and distance on the same day.

On all known evidence it is going to take a wonder horse to beat him in the Arkle in March, but he has run only once over fences, he's long odds-on and he's due to run at the Dublin Racing Festival next, so at this stage it makes sense to try to find an each-way alternative.

Facile Vega on a going day would probably be the main threat but he's not on my Christmas card list and was really disappointing at Leopardstown last time when last of four to Found A Fifty. He's bounced back from a bad run at Leopardstown before and might do so again as he loves Cheltenham, but Patrick Mullins was of the opinion that he needs further now and he has plenty of options at the festival.

Surely the best chance the Mullins team have of winning the Arkle would be with Gaelic Warrior, who jumps like a two-miler and has all the pace in the world. Clearly he's better going right-handed but he's run two crackers on his two runs at Cheltenham and, if he were to run in this race, he would be a serious opponent to Marine Nationale. The vibe the yard are giving off, though, is that he would be better served by the New course and is more likely to go for the Turners.

Il Etait Temps has taken surprisingly well to fences and was a Grade 1 winner over hurdles, so he could end up being the best of the Mullins runners. He was no match for Gaelic Warrior at Limerick last time but the trip and ground weren't in his favour and he wasn't beaten too far in the Supreme last year despite jumping badly. It's not hard to see him running well in a race that will suit but, like Facile Vega, he's got loads of Cheltenham options.

Found A Fifty jumped horribly out to his right at Leopardstown when winning the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase. Two miles is his trip but I doubt very much if Cheltenham will be his course, so I think the two most interesting ones at the current prices are the 2021 Triumph Hurdle winner Quilixios and Gavin Cromwell's My Mate Mozzie.

Quilixios returned to form when dropped back to 2m last time and he can go well from the front, but My Mate Mozzie is preferred as he is going to be ridden to make the frame and, in a race in which I expect only a handful of runners, has every chance of doing so.

My Mate Mozzie isn't the easiest to win with but he has most definitely improved for the application of a tongue-tie. Two starts ago, in an admittedly weak race over course and distance, he jumped really well to come out on top in a canter, and then he did really well to run on into second at Leopardstown last time, splitting Found A Fifty and Facile Vega, given he was ridden way off the pace in a race that didn't have a strong gallop.

I have no doubt My Mate Mozzie is more talented than Gabynako, who finished second in an Arkle for Gavin Cromwell, and the trainer has a great record when targeting one at a big race. Clearly he will struggle to beat Marine Nationale barring accidents, but he looks the type who could be placed.

I think it is fair to say that the Racing Post Novice was a very poor Grade 1, and it fell apart with Found A Fifty still winning despite his problems. My Mate Mozzie picked up pieces, and is essentially a bridle merchant. His overall winning recortd is not good. It is also worth mentioning that he is 8/1 favourite for the Grand Annual.

It looks as if he is taking on another short priced favourite just for the sake of putting a selection up.

thanks cobs

I will put up HERMES ALLEN at 20/1 for the Brown Advisory.

His run against the French horse was really very good, we know they went a strong gallop, far stronger than the KG and we know that Hermes Allen was pretty much involved in that gallop, he wasn't ridden to pick up the pieces cheap late on, turning in he made a mistake and as KK and Giovinco briefly closed in it would have been here that he would have been forgiven for paying for trying to keep tabs on the winner, yet he didn't fall in a hole, instead he fought off the other two who had a cheaper run through the race and stuck on well to the line. I think he's a thorough stayer who should be running in this race, in last years Ballymore his stamina wasn't used and he got outpaced off of a slowly run race.

It's the way of it, if the French horse turned up he'd be a short enough favourite but because HA loses a race he's ignored in the market even though he loses to what could be a monster and after trying to land a glove or two on him.

It was since this race that we started to hear noises from the stable about Stay Away Fay might not being suited to the old course and I just wonder if some of the talk about him not running in this is because Nicholl's also knows that he has a horse ably suited to the race as well, and look at the form line that both SAF and HA has with Giovinco who pushed SAF to the line but was tailed off and PU at xmas.

Who knows what the Irish are capable of, there's any number that could step up and win but I just don't trust the favourite Grangeclare West and certainly not at the price, I just have a nagging feeling about what he'd find if and when he has to get down and dirty, he's classy but it all fell his way last time against horses that disappointed a little.

All in all HA must be overpriced at 20/1, when taking into account how the race was run and his contribution in it although an 11 length defeat it could be that he has the 2nd best piece of staying novice form in the book, and the horse with the best ain't showing up!!

Great write up duffy and hard to disagree with any of it 

Thank you Hayden, do you fancy him for this too?

yes duffy a very good write up and exactly what the thread is about  and you make a solid case for hermes allen ,as said we  cant do  all the races thoroughly on our  own and many  pairs of eyes  are better than one so to speak . all talk of the winner of the kauto star but the 2nd has done nothing wrong and nicholls knows the time of day and if he does line up here he isnt going to be 20/1 good luck.

Bar Marine Nationale, I think the novice chases are weak, and consequently, very open.

Three potential issues with Hermes Allen: Nicholls seems to think he is quicker than he actually is; it's a similar story with Stay Away Fay, and then you have the ratings going into the Kauto Star, Hermes Allen was 151 and Kilbeg King 135. Even allowing for Kilbeg King having a better trip that needs a bit of explanation. Personally, I would have Hermes Allen in the Brown Advisory, and Stay Away Fay in the National Hunt Chase. If Nicholls could be persuaded to go down that route then 20/1 would look a lot more attractive. For a horse who isn't the most fluent jumper, and lacks a gear, I think Stay Away Fay is a terrible price for the Brown Advisory.

At the time i did think the same in that credit for running at attacking race and that he's still probably best of the home trained.


Follow with interest , good luck 

Just checked and Hermes Allen is 16/1 NRNB (with a possible boost). I think I would be more inclined to take that than the 20/1.

going by attheraces odds site billies 16/1 nrnb could be the way to go ,havent checkedif thats correct at billies as i cant get on their site fookin cartwheel appears.

soz dd didnt see your post ^^^

Yes, good point dd, not losing much there.

Should add i never back ante-post but obviously doesn't stop me from having an opinion from time to time.


Best of luck all   

I too thought the run by Hermes Allen on Boxing Day was a good one.

But backed him nrnb for the Turners.

I'm sure NRNB is the way to go if you can get on. Nicholls thinks a lot of Stay Away Fay (despite the comments above) - e.g. he's planned to run in the Cotswold Chase later this month. I really can't see SAF running in the NH Chase, and in that case, HA must be likely to run in the Turners.

I echo the comments above BTW, I though HA ran a very good race on Boxing Day, against a monster who gave him no chance.

It's odds on to work as strontium suggests. Even if Nicholls felt the longer race was a better fit he would probably shy away from taking the ride away from Cobden. I don't think either of them win the shorter races.

In days gone by i used to have plenty of Ant post bets at cheltenham with variable degress of success.Some good some not so good.

In recent years however my antepost bes are very limited, i think the change in weather conditions and its unreliability make ante post betting very difficult imvho. conditions can cahnge very quivcly these days and make atotal mess of your hard worked out ante post bets. So i tend not to nbother theses days and make my bets when i have a reasonable certainty on the state of the going.

I have mde 4 bets however this year which wre all made some time a go as follows

Arlke - Facile Vega - has now drifted alamingly since i placed my bet and does not look value for sure.

Champion chase - Jonbon

Triumph Hurdle - Burdett Road - Happy with my antrepost bet and is now sghorter.

Gold Cup -Gallopin De Champs - I have been backing this horse reguarly since it won last year. Its my main bet of the festival and i think it will win cruising. Happy with my Ante post bet.

On Hernes Allen i like the horse a lot but am keeping my powder dry as i , like the trainer have no idea where it may go. AsDD says NRNB at 16/1 looks ok

monkfish winning and allaho out the big news today ,also just seen b365 nrnb  on many of the non handicaps for those interested .

More of less given up on AP Foyles with the massed ranks of entries from the usual suspects and even with NRNB there does not seem to be an upside given that if most of the fancied ones turn up the markets are unlikely to be hugely different on the day.

i know what you mean in years gone by i would have around 10 -15 ante post bets by now , i only have half a dozen at present but anything can happen as we see with allaho . one that interests me enough to get involved at  at a big price is  AHOY SENOR  in the gold cup ,obviously one that comes with risks but was yet to be headed when falling 5 or 6 out in last years gold cup ,a horse that seems best in the spring and is talented when on a going day , 50/1 nrnb looks fair imo.  we dont know for sure what would have happened in the gold cup if he had stood up may not have won but could have well been placed and baring the fav it looks open to me and galopin has got to back up a mighty effort last time when hacking up in bad ground .ive had a few quid ew nrnb  the 50s ew  he is declared for the cotswold  on saturday which he won last year ,if he flops he will prob go for the stayers so money back .

I had a similar effort 66s NRNB Hitman for the Ryanair .

good luck paulo

the arkle looks like many regard it a 2 horse race marine nationale and gaelic warrior ,it may well be and tom segal although putting up my mate mozzie has all but conceded he is playing for places , i think the fav could be vulnerable ok he is unbeaten and was a good winner of the supreme and looks the likely winner going by the betting and ratings but its a novice chase and odds on makes no appeal to me if he  or gealic warrior . i have been punting quilixios ew at the 25s and 20s ante post and also the 14/1 nrnb which i think is still fair . ,marine beat  facile vega quite well but the mullins horse has proved vulnerable since and possibly needs further ,hopefully marine and gaelic warrior both line up in the irish arkle and the festival betting could see a big change . whatever quilixios jumped well last time and 2 miles looks his trip and i make it around a 10/1 chance tops so 14s nrnb appeals , opinions encouraged.

Not encouraging news for us Hermes Allen fans be it Turners or Brown Advisory, Nicholl's saying that he might miss the festival and go to Aintree because of the easier nature of the track, he really doesn't think he's a proper stayer, I thought the xmas run and how he raced through it suggested a stiffer 3 miles would be right up his street.

I suppose with Ginny's Destiny emerging, he's got a good one for both the RSA and the Turners.

a few years back nicholls  said kempton not siviniarcos track ,we know how that panned out !

an upset in the irish arkle and a shake up in the betting for the chelt  version

So sad about Hermes Allen, have to say , he was not a 2 and a half miler and how that race panned out having to force him to try and close down that gap and having to go faster than he is comfortable with, well, I'll say no more...so sad

as suspected a bit of a shake up in the arkle market after  marine nationale and gaelic warrior both well  at the dublin festival  and ? around both now and possible we bill have a much bigger field than anticipated pre leopardstown . marine national may have had excuses but the air of invincibility has eroded somewhat , could still prove to good but it looks more open now and a few who may have gone turners or the handicap route might fancy their chances in the arkle a bit more now.
the gold cup and many will think its all over bar the shouting after galopins win in the irish version at leopards ,he will be difficult to beat but around 5/4 i have to take him on , alreadyb on gentlemansgame and he will gon there a fresh horse having sat in his box at home while the big guns were fighting out the finishes in the trials, hewick would be a big threat on goodish  ground and with a ride similar to the king george win ie held onto could run a massive race and should not be underestimated and the nrnb option could be the way to go .

Protektorak @ 16/1 NRNB in the Ryanair, I expect him to be a NR but would prefer it if he took his chance in the Ryanair than the Gold Cup.

the turners should cut up, fact or file il etait temps found a fifty among others could go elsewhere at the festival and facile vega if rocking up here could go very close ,strong festival form and the supreme 2nd reads well ,been shaping as tho a step up in trip should suit and 8/1 nrnb looks fair imo.

dont know if he will run here but ahoy senor looks a big price in the ryanaire at 25/1 nrnb ew . have to ignore some indifferent runs this season but the drop down in trip could suit much better and this horse comes alive in the spring looked all over the winner at aintree till collared late by shishkin in the bowl he has some good form and lucinda should have him spot on if this is the target ,lots of ifs and buts about his jumping but has the ability and price looks fair imo.

fav banbridge could miss this if going on the soft side

my first thought after iberico lord won the betfair hurdle was to look for a price in the champ hurdle but he wasnt quoted and dont know if it is too late to be supplemented others  on here will know if its possible  think he has a real chance on soft there if he was . near the head of the betting  in the county hurdle and will prob go there but would be of big interest  to me if they supplemented him. cons hill out leaves a few options open.

Chmpn Hdle is Wednesday,I think.

ok thanks penzance as said dont think they will reroute iberico but he looks to be improving fast and prob a lot more to come and the champ hurdle not as strong as a few days ago!

Champion Hurdle is Tuesday @ 15.30

Best day of the festival

penzance means the supplement day is wednesday andrew

Apologies Foyles/Penzance

no problem andrew good luck all !

SIR TOM SEEMS TO LIKE IBERICO LORD

iberico lord supplemented for the champ hurdle .......well done nico ya know it makes sense !

Could nick a place, and only got to finish in the top 4 to get the supplementary entry fee back.

well done nicky^^^^

yes strontium who knows ? can he beat state man ? has state man improved since last season hard to know tbf .

been going through the champion chase and the fav is going to be hard to beat obviously but there are more than one way to skin a cat ,and tho the 1st 3 in the betting look head and shoulders above the rest the way the race is run could  be key , edwardstone should make the running at a decent clip and that could force an error or 2 from those in the chasing pack ,el fab and jonbon not always foot perfect no suprise if the 3 fight out the finish but coud be set up for something to pick up the pieces coming from off the pace . rather than play any of the front 3 i have backed gentleman de mee who on the face of it has plenty to find but is usefull on his day and could be ridden to pick up the pieces here . in all probability one of the front 3 will win but anything can happen.
selection GENTLEMAN DE MEE 50/1 NRNB EW 3 PLACES GOOD LUCK OPINIONS ENCOURAGED.

Was 20/1 ew wo 1/4 odds 2 places with sportsbook or poors but not entitled to any of that but think ground will be right for it

looking atb bthe OR gent dee mee 164....jonbon 170 ...edwardstone 166 ....capt guiness 162  fav is clear on 175 .but not a massive amount to find  with most of the others not saying he will win hes an outsider  but 50s looks fair imo.

Agree but 20's wo doesn't include el fab 1/4 1st 2 so could be 20/1 winner if el fab wins and he's 2nd as long as el fab is in 1st 3 and the gent you pick up the place at least

huge huge hype around a few of the favs , now that hype may turn out to be justified and for instance ballyburn may turn out to be the 2nd coming ,many of the pundits /experts and indeed those connected to the yard seem convinced he only has to turn up and that may turn out to be the case but imo he is going to go off shorter than he should, whatever! i dont play at short odds and my instinct is to take him fact or file sir geno and a few of the other shorties on .i am not a layer so that option is out the window so i will look to play a few against the shorties at bigger odds gonna go through a few races and see if i can come up with anything solid .

Yes, some of the Mullins fourth/fifth strings could provide a bit of value Foyles. In the Gallaghers, Billericay Dickie is in the "could be anything" category, and Mercurey won by half the track LTO. In the Triumph, he's got a whole batallion, including some who've never raced in GB/Ire. Salvator Mundi beat Sir Gino in France LTO. I doubt even he'll run 9 though, so may need to wait until the 48 hr stage

strange you say that strontium had a quick glance at the gallaghers and that one caught the eye and will go back to it in a while, looking at  the the brown advisory american mike is interesting ,the step up to 3m last time seemed to suit and was supplemented for this and should have room for plenty of improvment has also btn fact or file when both made chasing debuts at navan over 20f fav fav may have had excuses but one is around evs and american mike is 12s or 14s .

Yes mate nobody really knows how to accurately assess the chances of these 3rd/4th/5th strings in that yard as they're so full of depth quality and i'd include connections in that such is the potentially big improvement from one run to another with the younger horses.

yeah 2nd 3rd 4th 5th strings often go off bigger than they perhaps should  in the old days of the shops how many times you hear from punters oh stats the second string  that cant win the stable jock rides the shorter priced one he knows he is on the right one . and tho i wouldnt know what goes on in yards gallops /workouts they wouldnt imo  put the gun to their heads so to speak ,so they may have an idea or hunch that a is better than b at home it may not be the same in the heat of a race ,plus these lightly raced types can improve some may be flashy workers and others may be laid back types who dont show a lot . as i say a lot of guesswork and luck needed .

how many times when a yards 2nd 3rd or 4th string beats a supposed 1st string you hear the words muttered or put up on here cheating khoonts the fact is the bigger yards with loads of good horse is  they probably dont know . the trainer and jock will have words on it but they dont know for sure most of the time.imo.

In many ways Paul Townend has the toughest job in racing and he'd need to be psychic not to choose the wrong one with at least some regularity.

most jocks seem to go with form in the book or what it has done rather than what something could be capable of which on the face of it is understandable . the odds compilers imo  will also take that kind of a view which is sound but in fields of lightly raced potential improvers id like to think they are not so far in front of punters ok they may have access to stable insiders or whatever  as to what is fit or what is in the race for a run out the back i dont know but pricing up for them also includes guesswork ..imo.

Really interested to see who gets on board Mistergif in the Supreme , 5lb claimer gave him a lovely ride at Limerick but green and gold may mean differently .WM was impressed after the race and am sure more so when his 80 length trailer at Limerick (2nd till 3 out ) came out to win at Punchestown 3 weeks later .

as an example a few years back in one of the mares novices hurdles at the festival willie had 6 or 7  runners in the race the fav the 2nd  3rd fav and 4  or 5 big outsiders all either unraced or 1 run out the back but all very well bred  after summing up the race the fav was the most likely winner but too short for me  the 3rd fav had a decent  chance but i decided to back the 5 bigger priced of his 7 to smaller stakes and hope for the best . now backing 5 in a race is gonna dilute it massivly but i went ahead anyway for small stakes and popped a token £5 on each on bfsp forgive the aftertiming but it is an example of the possible merit of  stable strings and pecking order .anyway it ended up a photo finish between concertina and one ridden by noel fehily which the name escapes me both  at huge prices especially  on the bfsp and no i didnt have the forcast anyway its the only time i have been shouting for a 66/1 poke hoping it has been done in a photo by another "rag"

Certainly agree with the lower strings being guesswork to price up especially lightly raced , we see the RP forecast 2/1 for 8/1 shots on occasions for debutantes or very unexposed horses which is perfectly understandable in my view.

You're correct though Foyles that doesn't give the bookmaker much if any advantage over the punter when pricing up those types initially , that said they don't half make it up on over round in some races 

too right ^^^

interesting paulo keep em coming guys as said several pairs of eyes or heads /ears are better than one and any snippets or opinions are appreciated and useful.

Just something I noticed the other day...

Since P.Townend became the stable jockey at Closutton, W.Mullins has won 29 Grade 1 races at the DRF.
Townend rode 17 of those. (59%)
The same period W.Mullins has saddled 17 Grade 1 winners at the Cheltenham Festival and Townend was up top on 15 of those. (88%)
Just shows that come March, they know the pecking order.
(Did not include the bumper horses as Patrick gets first pick)

some rain predicted the next few days but nothing of much significance going by a few weather sites ground should dry out for the las t few days of the festival and possible we have a good ground gold cup and that would help a fair few and not sure it suit galopin ideally ,hewick and bravemansgame plus a few others would be more suited  by less testing ground this may not be the penalty kick many predicted .
hendos form a big concern and sir geno on the slide strugglin g to hold onto favouritism on here ......more drama .

I will do something with the JP horses imo ie

Mystical Power, Iberico Lord (without Stateman), Fact or File, Sa Majeste & Dino Blue

They all look decent imo just need to figure out the best acca set up here.

First day found a fifty apple away hoping get in handicap bottom weight , Marie’s rock bet ew but that was on ideal hotpot run in champion hurdle 
Punting starts today I guess
Wonder how small fields be ?

state man is he untouchable here 3  wins from 3 in grade 1s makes him look the part on form figgas  but could be said he has been beating the same horses and may not be so far clear as the ratings suggest i certainly wouldnt touch him at around 2/5 ,he may well be too good but was put in his place  by constitution hill last season and he faces a few potential improvers in iberico lord and irish point ,the latter may be best over further and iberico lord could be underestimated here ,has strong handicap form winning the greatwood and betfair hurdle arguably the 2 strongest handicap hurdles this side of the festival, supplemented by connections after the defection of cons hill and open to any amount of improvement he could run a big race tommorow already on ew but will go in again given he has his ideal ground conditions here
SELECTIONS IBERICO LORD AROUND 10/1 BOOKS BUT SHOULD BE A FAIR BIT BIGGER ON HERE WHICH IS WHERE I WILL PLAY WIN AND PLACE.