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yo guys , dont know how many on here play ante post but the festival is getting closer and i thought id stick up a thread for those interested . the ante post forum is not busy and if ya have any opinions thoughts or snippets put em up we need all the help we can get tbh.
i will start with the arkle ....marine national is the hot fav and a good supreme winner last year ,hacked up on chase debut and odds on for the arkle he may well win but too short for me . this will cut up and could well be a single figga field and i like the chance of HENRY DE BROMS QUILIXIOS 25/1 SLYS IF YA CAN GET ANYTHING ON WITH THEM..20s general and 14/1 billys nrnb i have played ante post at 20s ew and a few buttons 25s slys .quilixios travelled and jumped well when winning over 2m at naas last week, picked up well after the last and henry said post race "he has gears and a high cruising speed and the arkle looks the obvious race for him . a course winner and who has won 2 of his 3 chases and didnt stay 3m in the 2nd of those the 25s /20s looks fair to me good luck opinions encouraged. SELECTION QUILIXIOS 25/1 & 20/1 EW 3 PLACES .
i will start with the arkle ....marine national is the hot fav and a good supreme winner last year ,hacked up on chase debut and odds on for the arkle he may well win but too short for me . this will cut up and could well be a single figga field and i like the chance of HENRY DE BROMS QUILIXIOS 25/1 SLYS IF YA CAN GET ANYTHING ON WITH THEM..20s general and 14/1 billys nrnb i have played ante post at 20s ew and a few buttons 25s slys .quilixios travelled and jumped well when winning over 2m at naas last week, picked up well after the last and henry said post race "he has gears and a high cruising speed and the arkle looks the obvious race for him . a course winner and who has won 2 of his 3 chases and didnt stay 3m in the 2nd of those the 25s /20s looks fair to me good luck opinions encouraged. SELECTION QUILIXIOS 25/1 & 20/1 EW 3 PLACES .
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Good luck with the thread, hope you get some interest.
I put mine up on the bumpers/novice hurdles thread yesterday. Sadly, there seems to a can't too bothered attitude amongst bookmakers this year. For instance the Arkle should have a w/o Marine Nationale market already. |
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yeah dd hopefully get some input , so many races to go through its hard to cover them on your own and sometimes ya can pick up on something someone posts which can spark an interest that would have passed you by , i will have a look at your thread thanks and good luck .
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Foyles.
Good luck a very good article just looking at the book got one loose the fav laid at 7/2 sad to say nothing changes. Ronnie. |
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quilixios all being well should go off from the front or prominent and his good jumping and cruising speed will be a help ,wether he can beat the fav or the others we will see but ticks a few boxes imo.
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thanks ronnie plenty can happen yet as we know and its a novice chase the fav just the 1 run but may go for the irish arkle as could quilixios so we could learn a lot more from that.best of luck ronnie and hope you are well.
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sir tom (pricewise ) put up mymate mozzie ew for this in yesterdays post ,could anyone put up the write up if possiblle ,thanks !
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My Mate Mozzie
Arkle Chase (Cheltenham, March 12) 1pt each-way at 25-1 As the old saying goes, you should never be afraid of one horse, but I'm not sure those rules apply to Marine Nationale, who has looked unbeatable so far and could not have made a more impressive start to his chasing career. He was miles too good for Facile Vega in the Supreme last season and on his first start over fences at Leopardstown over Christmas he won in a canter – and in a much quicker time than it took Dinoblue to win the Grade 1 chase over the same course and distance on the same day. On all known evidence it is going to take a wonder horse to beat him in the Arkle in March, but he has run only once over fences, he's long odds-on and he's due to run at the Dublin Racing Festival next, so at this stage it makes sense to try to find an each-way alternative. Facile Vega on a going day would probably be the main threat but he's not on my Christmas card list and was really disappointing at Leopardstown last time when last of four to Found A Fifty. He's bounced back from a bad run at Leopardstown before and might do so again as he loves Cheltenham, but Patrick Mullins was of the opinion that he needs further now and he has plenty of options at the festival. Surely the best chance the Mullins team have of winning the Arkle would be with Gaelic Warrior, who jumps like a two-miler and has all the pace in the world. Clearly he's better going right-handed but he's run two crackers on his two runs at Cheltenham and, if he were to run in this race, he would be a serious opponent to Marine Nationale. The vibe the yard are giving off, though, is that he would be better served by the New course and is more likely to go for the Turners. Il Etait Temps has taken surprisingly well to fences and was a Grade 1 winner over hurdles, so he could end up being the best of the Mullins runners. He was no match for Gaelic Warrior at Limerick last time but the trip and ground weren't in his favour and he wasn't beaten too far in the Supreme last year despite jumping badly. It's not hard to see him running well in a race that will suit but, like Facile Vega, he's got loads of Cheltenham options. Found A Fifty jumped horribly out to his right at Leopardstown when winning the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase. Two miles is his trip but I doubt very much if Cheltenham will be his course, so I think the two most interesting ones at the current prices are the 2021 Triumph Hurdle winner Quilixios and Gavin Cromwell's My Mate Mozzie. Quilixios returned to form when dropped back to 2m last time and he can go well from the front, but My Mate Mozzie is preferred as he is going to be ridden to make the frame and, in a race in which I expect only a handful of runners, has every chance of doing so. My Mate Mozzie isn't the easiest to win with but he has most definitely improved for the application of a tongue-tie. Two starts ago, in an admittedly weak race over course and distance, he jumped really well to come out on top in a canter, and then he did really well to run on into second at Leopardstown last time, splitting Found A Fifty and Facile Vega, given he was ridden way off the pace in a race that didn't have a strong gallop. I have no doubt My Mate Mozzie is more talented than Gabynako, who finished second in an Arkle for Gavin Cromwell, and the trainer has a great record when targeting one at a big race. Clearly he will struggle to beat Marine Nationale barring accidents, but he looks the type who could be placed. |
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I think it is fair to say that the Racing Post Novice was a very poor Grade 1, and it fell apart with Found A Fifty still winning despite his problems. My Mate Mozzie picked up pieces, and is essentially a bridle merchant. His overall winning recortd is not good. It is also worth mentioning that he is 8/1 favourite for the Grand Annual.
It looks as if he is taking on another short priced favourite just for the sake of putting a selection up. |
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thanks cobs
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I will put up HERMES ALLEN at 20/1 for the Brown Advisory.
His run against the French horse was really very good, we know they went a strong gallop, far stronger than the KG and we know that Hermes Allen was pretty much involved in that gallop, he wasn't ridden to pick up the pieces cheap late on, turning in he made a mistake and as KK and Giovinco briefly closed in it would have been here that he would have been forgiven for paying for trying to keep tabs on the winner, yet he didn't fall in a hole, instead he fought off the other two who had a cheaper run through the race and stuck on well to the line. I think he's a thorough stayer who should be running in this race, in last years Ballymore his stamina wasn't used and he got outpaced off of a slowly run race. It's the way of it, if the French horse turned up he'd be a short enough favourite but because HA loses a race he's ignored in the market even though he loses to what could be a monster and after trying to land a glove or two on him. It was since this race that we started to hear noises from the stable about Stay Away Fay might not being suited to the old course and I just wonder if some of the talk about him not running in this is because Nicholl's also knows that he has a horse ably suited to the race as well, and look at the form line that both SAF and HA has with Giovinco who pushed SAF to the line but was tailed off and PU at xmas. Who knows what the Irish are capable of, there's any number that could step up and win but I just don't trust the favourite Grangeclare West and certainly not at the price, I just have a nagging feeling about what he'd find if and when he has to get down and dirty, he's classy but it all fell his way last time against horses that disappointed a little. All in all HA must be overpriced at 20/1, when taking into account how the race was run and his contribution in it although an 11 length defeat it could be that he has the 2nd best piece of staying novice form in the book, and the horse with the best ain't showing up!! |
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Great write up duffy and hard to disagree with any of it
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Thank you Hayden, do you fancy him for this too?
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yes duffy a very good write up and exactly what the thread is about and you make a solid case for hermes allen ,as said we cant do all the races thoroughly on our own and many pairs of eyes are better than one so to speak . all talk of the winner of the kauto star but the 2nd has done nothing wrong and nicholls knows the time of day and if he does line up here he isnt going to be 20/1 good luck.
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Bar Marine Nationale, I think the novice chases are weak, and consequently, very open.
Three potential issues with Hermes Allen: Nicholls seems to think he is quicker than he actually is; it's a similar story with Stay Away Fay, and then you have the ratings going into the Kauto Star, Hermes Allen was 151 and Kilbeg King 135. Even allowing for Kilbeg King having a better trip that needs a bit of explanation. Personally, I would have Hermes Allen in the Brown Advisory, and Stay Away Fay in the National Hunt Chase. If Nicholls could be persuaded to go down that route then 20/1 would look a lot more attractive. For a horse who isn't the most fluent jumper, and lacks a gear, I think Stay Away Fay is a terrible price for the Brown Advisory. |
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At the time i did think the same in that credit for running at attacking race and that he's still probably best of the home trained.
Follow with interest , good luck |
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Just checked and Hermes Allen is 16/1 NRNB (with a possible boost). I think I would be more inclined to take that than the 20/1.
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going by attheraces odds site billies 16/1 nrnb could be the way to go ,havent checkedif thats correct at billies as i cant get on their site fookin cartwheel appears.
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soz dd didnt see your post ^^^
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Yes, good point dd, not losing much there.
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Should add i never back ante-post but obviously doesn't stop me from having an opinion from time to time.
Best of luck all |
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I too thought the run by Hermes Allen on Boxing Day was a good one.
But backed him nrnb for the Turners. |
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I'm sure NRNB is the way to go if you can get on. Nicholls thinks a lot of Stay Away Fay (despite the comments above) - e.g. he's planned to run in the Cotswold Chase later this month. I really can't see SAF running in the NH Chase, and in that case, HA must be likely to run in the Turners.
I echo the comments above BTW, I though HA ran a very good race on Boxing Day, against a monster who gave him no chance. |
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It's odds on to work as strontium suggests. Even if Nicholls felt the longer race was a better fit he would probably shy away from taking the ride away from Cobden. I don't think either of them win the shorter races.
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In days gone by i used to have plenty of Ant post bets at cheltenham with variable degress of success.Some good some not so good.
In recent years however my antepost bes are very limited, i think the change in weather conditions and its unreliability make ante post betting very difficult imvho. conditions can cahnge very quivcly these days and make atotal mess of your hard worked out ante post bets. So i tend not to nbother theses days and make my bets when i have a reasonable certainty on the state of the going. I have mde 4 bets however this year which wre all made some time a go as follows Arlke - Facile Vega - has now drifted alamingly since i placed my bet and does not look value for sure. Champion chase - Jonbon Triumph Hurdle - Burdett Road - Happy with my antrepost bet and is now sghorter. Gold Cup -Gallopin De Champs - I have been backing this horse reguarly since it won last year. Its my main bet of the festival and i think it will win cruising. Happy with my Ante post bet. On Hernes Allen i like the horse a lot but am keeping my powder dry as i , like the trainer have no idea where it may go. AsDD says NRNB at 16/1 looks ok |
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monkfish winning and allaho out the big news today ,also just seen b365 nrnb on many of the non handicaps for those interested .
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More of less given up on AP Foyles with the massed ranks of entries from the usual suspects and even with NRNB there does not seem to be an upside given that if most of the fancied ones turn up the markets are unlikely to be hugely different on the day.
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i know what you mean in years gone by i would have around 10 -15 ante post bets by now , i only have half a dozen at present but anything can happen as we see with allaho . one that interests me enough to get involved at at a big price is AHOY SENOR in the gold cup ,obviously one that comes with risks but was yet to be headed when falling 5 or 6 out in last years gold cup ,a horse that seems best in the spring and is talented when on a going day , 50/1 nrnb looks fair imo. we dont know for sure what would have happened in the gold cup if he had stood up may not have won but could have well been placed and baring the fav it looks open to me and galopin has got to back up a mighty effort last time when hacking up in bad ground .ive had a few quid ew nrnb the 50s ew he is declared for the cotswold on saturday which he won last year ,if he flops he will prob go for the stayers so money back .
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I had a similar effort 66s NRNB Hitman for the Ryanair .
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good luck paulo
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the arkle looks like many regard it a 2 horse race marine nationale and gaelic warrior ,it may well be and tom segal although putting up my mate mozzie has all but conceded he is playing for places , i think the fav could be vulnerable ok he is unbeaten and was a good winner of the supreme and looks the likely winner going by the betting and ratings but its a novice chase and odds on makes no appeal to me if he or gealic warrior . i have been punting quilixios ew at the 25s and 20s ante post and also the 14/1 nrnb which i think is still fair . ,marine beat facile vega quite well but the mullins horse has proved vulnerable since and possibly needs further ,hopefully marine and gaelic warrior both line up in the irish arkle and the festival betting could see a big change . whatever quilixios jumped well last time and 2 miles looks his trip and i make it around a 10/1 chance tops so 14s nrnb appeals , opinions encouraged.
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Not encouraging news for us Hermes Allen fans be it Turners or Brown Advisory, Nicholl's saying that he might miss the festival and go to Aintree because of the easier nature of the track, he really doesn't think he's a proper stayer, I thought the xmas run and how he raced through it suggested a stiffer 3 miles would be right up his street.
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I suppose with Ginny's Destiny emerging, he's got a good one for both the RSA and the Turners.
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a few years back nicholls said kempton not siviniarcos track ,we know how that panned out !
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an upset in the irish arkle and a shake up in the betting for the chelt version
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So sad about Hermes Allen, have to say , he was not a 2 and a half miler and how that race panned out having to force him to try and close down that gap and having to go faster than he is comfortable with, well, I'll say no more...so sad
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as suspected a bit of a shake up in the arkle market after marine nationale and gaelic warrior both well at the dublin festival and ? around both now and possible we bill have a much bigger field than anticipated pre leopardstown . marine national may have had excuses but the air of invincibility has eroded somewhat , could still prove to good but it looks more open now and a few who may have gone turners or the handicap route might fancy their chances in the arkle a bit more now.
the gold cup and many will think its all over bar the shouting after galopins win in the irish version at leopards ,he will be difficult to beat but around 5/4 i have to take him on , alreadyb on gentlemansgame and he will gon there a fresh horse having sat in his box at home while the big guns were fighting out the finishes in the trials, hewick would be a big threat on goodish ground and with a ride similar to the king george win ie held onto could run a massive race and should not be underestimated and the nrnb option could be the way to go . |
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Protektorak @ 16/1 NRNB in the Ryanair, I expect him to be a NR but would prefer it if he took his chance in the Ryanair than the Gold Cup.
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the turners should cut up, fact or file il etait temps found a fifty among others could go elsewhere at the festival and facile vega if rocking up here could go very close ,strong festival form and the supreme 2nd reads well ,been shaping as tho a step up in trip should suit and 8/1 nrnb looks fair imo.
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dont know if he will run here but ahoy senor looks a big price in the ryanaire at 25/1 nrnb ew . have to ignore some indifferent runs this season but the drop down in trip could suit much better and this horse comes alive in the spring looked all over the winner at aintree till collared late by shishkin in the bowl he has some good form and lucinda should have him spot on if this is the target ,lots of ifs and buts about his jumping but has the ability and price looks fair imo.
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