There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 75 comments are related to the topic:
cheltenham festival fancies
cheltenham festival fancies
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 75
|
By:
fav banbridge could miss this if going on the soft side
|
|
By:
my first thought after iberico lord won the betfair hurdle was to look for a price in the champ hurdle but he wasnt quoted and dont know if it is too late to be supplemented others on here will know if its possible think he has a real chance on soft there if he was . near the head of the betting in the county hurdle and will prob go there but would be of big interest to me if they supplemented him. cons hill out leaves a few options open.
|
|
By:
Chmpn Hdle is Wednesday,I think.
|
|
By:
ok thanks penzance as said dont think they will reroute iberico but he looks to be improving fast and prob a lot more to come and the champ hurdle not as strong as a few days ago!
|
|
By:
Champion Hurdle is Tuesday @ 15.30
Best day of the festival |
|
By:
penzance means the supplement day is wednesday andrew
|
|
By:
Apologies Foyles/Penzance
|
|
By:
no problem andrew good luck all !
|
|
By:
SIR TOM SEEMS TO LIKE IBERICO LORD
|
|
By:
iberico lord supplemented for the champ hurdle .......well done nico ya know it makes sense !
|
|
By:
Could nick a place, and only got to finish in the top 4 to get the supplementary entry fee back.
|
|
By:
well done nicky^^^^
|
|
By:
yes strontium who knows ? can he beat state man ? has state man improved since last season hard to know tbf .
|
|
By:
been going through the champion chase and the fav is going to be hard to beat obviously but there are more than one way to skin a cat ,and tho the 1st 3 in the betting look head and shoulders above the rest the way the race is run could be key , edwardstone should make the running at a decent clip and that could force an error or 2 from those in the chasing pack ,el fab and jonbon not always foot perfect no suprise if the 3 fight out the finish but coud be set up for something to pick up the pieces coming from off the pace . rather than play any of the front 3 i have backed gentleman de mee who on the face of it has plenty to find but is usefull on his day and could be ridden to pick up the pieces here . in all probability one of the front 3 will win but anything can happen.
selection GENTLEMAN DE MEE 50/1 NRNB EW 3 PLACES GOOD LUCK OPINIONS ENCOURAGED. |
|
By:
Was 20/1 ew wo 1/4 odds 2 places with sportsbook or poors but not entitled to any of that but think ground will be right for it
|
|
By:
looking atb bthe OR gent dee mee 164....jonbon 170 ...edwardstone 166 ....capt guiness 162 fav is clear on 175 .but not a massive amount to find with most of the others not saying he will win hes an outsider but 50s looks fair imo.
|
|
By:
Agree but 20's wo doesn't include el fab 1/4 1st 2 so could be 20/1 winner if el fab wins and he's 2nd as long as el fab is in 1st 3 and the gent you pick up the place at least
|
|
By:
huge huge hype around a few of the favs , now that hype may turn out to be justified and for instance ballyburn may turn out to be the 2nd coming ,many of the pundits /experts and indeed those connected to the yard seem convinced he only has to turn up and that may turn out to be the case but imo he is going to go off shorter than he should, whatever! i dont play at short odds and my instinct is to take him fact or file sir geno and a few of the other shorties on .i am not a layer so that option is out the window so i will look to play a few against the shorties at bigger odds gonna go through a few races and see if i can come up with anything solid .
|
|
By:
Yes, some of the Mullins fourth/fifth strings could provide a bit of value Foyles. In the Gallaghers, Billericay Dickie is in the "could be anything" category, and Mercurey won by half the track LTO. In the Triumph, he's got a whole batallion, including some who've never raced in GB/Ire. Salvator Mundi beat Sir Gino in France LTO. I doubt even he'll run 9 though, so may need to wait until the 48 hr stage
 |
|
By:
strange you say that strontium had a quick glance at the gallaghers and that one caught the eye and will go back to it in a while, looking at the the brown advisory american mike is interesting ,the step up to 3m last time seemed to suit and was supplemented for this and should have room for plenty of improvment has also btn fact or file when both made chasing debuts at navan over 20f fav fav may have had excuses but one is around evs and american mike is 12s or 14s .
|
|
By:
Yes mate nobody really knows how to accurately assess the chances of these 3rd/4th/5th strings in that yard as they're so full of depth quality and i'd include connections in that such is the potentially big improvement from one run to another with the younger horses.
|
|
By:
yeah 2nd 3rd 4th 5th strings often go off bigger than they perhaps should in the old days of the shops how many times you hear from punters oh stats the second string that cant win the stable jock rides the shorter priced one he knows he is on the right one . and tho i wouldnt know what goes on in yards gallops /workouts they wouldnt imo put the gun to their heads so to speak ,so they may have an idea or hunch that a is better than b at home it may not be the same in the heat of a race ,plus these lightly raced types can improve some may be flashy workers and others may be laid back types who dont show a lot . as i say a lot of guesswork and luck needed .
|
|
By:
how many times when a yards 2nd 3rd or 4th string beats a supposed 1st string you hear the words muttered or put up on here cheating khoonts
 the fact is the bigger yards with loads of good horse is they probably dont know . the trainer and jock will have words on it but they dont know for sure most of the time.imo. |
|
By:
In many ways Paul Townend has the toughest job in racing and he'd need to be psychic not to choose the wrong one with at least some regularity.
|
|
By:
most jocks seem to go with form in the book or what it has done rather than what something could be capable of which on the face of it is understandable . the odds compilers imo will also take that kind of a view which is sound but in fields of lightly raced potential improvers id like to think they are not so far in front of punters ok they may have access to stable insiders or whatever as to what is fit or what is in the race for a run out the back i dont know but pricing up for them also includes guesswork ..imo.
|
|
By:
Really interested to see who gets on board Mistergif in the Supreme , 5lb claimer gave him a lovely ride at Limerick but green and gold may mean differently .WM was impressed after the race and am sure more so when his 80 length trailer at Limerick (2nd till 3 out ) came out to win at Punchestown 3 weeks later .
|
|
By:
as an example a few years back in one of the mares novices hurdles at the festival willie had 6 or 7 runners in the race the fav the 2nd 3rd fav and 4 or 5 big outsiders all either unraced or 1 run out the back but all very well bred after summing up the race the fav was the most likely winner but too short for me the 3rd fav had a decent chance but i decided to back the 5 bigger priced of his 7 to smaller stakes and hope for the best . now backing 5 in a race is gonna dilute it massivly but i went ahead anyway for small stakes and popped a token £5 on each on bfsp forgive the aftertiming but it is an example of the possible merit of stable strings and pecking order .anyway it ended up a photo finish between concertina and one ridden by noel fehily which the name escapes me both at huge prices especially on the bfsp and no i didnt have the forcast anyway its the only time i have been shouting for a 66/1 poke hoping it has been done in a photo by another "rag"
|
|
By:
Certainly agree with the lower strings being guesswork to price up especially lightly raced , we see the RP forecast 2/1 for 8/1 shots on occasions for debutantes or very unexposed horses which is perfectly understandable in my view.
You're correct though Foyles that doesn't give the bookmaker much if any advantage over the punter when pricing up those types initially , that said they don't half make it up on over round in some races  |
|
By:
too right ^^^
|
|
By:
interesting paulo keep em coming guys as said several pairs of eyes or heads /ears are better than one and any snippets or opinions are appreciated and useful.
|
|
By:
Just something I noticed the other day...
|
|
By:
Since P.Townend became the stable jockey at Closutton, W.Mullins has won 29 Grade 1 races at the DRF.
Townend rode 17 of those. (59%) The same period W.Mullins has saddled 17 Grade 1 winners at the Cheltenham Festival and Townend was up top on 15 of those. (88%) Just shows that come March, they know the pecking order. (Did not include the bumper horses as Patrick gets first pick) |
|
By:
some rain predicted the next few days but nothing of much significance going by a few weather sites ground should dry out for the las t few days of the festival and possible we have a good ground gold cup and that would help a fair few and not sure it suit galopin ideally ,hewick and bravemansgame plus a few others would be more suited by less testing ground this may not be the penalty kick many predicted .
hendos form a big concern and sir geno on the slide strugglin g to hold onto favouritism on here ......more drama . |
|
By:
I will do something with the JP horses imo ie
Mystical Power, Iberico Lord (without Stateman), Fact or File, Sa Majeste & Dino Blue They all look decent imo just need to figure out the best acca set up here. |
|
By:
First day found a fifty apple away hoping get in handicap bottom weight , Marie’s rock bet ew but that was on ideal hotpot run in champion hurdle
Punting starts today I guess Wonder how small fields be ? |
|
By:
state man is he untouchable here 3 wins from 3 in grade 1s makes him look the part on form figgas but could be said he has been beating the same horses and may not be so far clear as the ratings suggest i certainly wouldnt touch him at around 2/5 ,he may well be too good but was put in his place by constitution hill last season and he faces a few potential improvers in iberico lord and irish point ,the latter may be best over further and iberico lord could be underestimated here ,has strong handicap form winning the greatwood and betfair hurdle arguably the 2 strongest handicap hurdles this side of the festival, supplemented by connections after the defection of cons hill and open to any amount of improvement he could run a big race tommorow already on ew but will go in again given he has his ideal ground conditions here
SELECTIONS IBERICO LORD AROUND 10/1 BOOKS BUT SHOULD BE A FAIR BIT BIGGER ON HERE WHICH IS WHERE I WILL PLAY WIN AND PLACE. |