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Billy Liddell
02 Oct 23 13:14
Joined:
Date Joined: 28 Aug 05
| Topic/replies: 6,033 | Blogger: Billy Liddell's blog
£5000 Bank

£20 Double   8/11   4/6

Fairyhouse 2-50 King Of Kingsfield   1.84  £50 Win

Done The Bizz  in a NH flat race and a Point-to-Point at 2m 1f and 3m on Soft ground on debut in March and then Bommy night last year. Continued decent form when Third of 8 behind A Dream To Share when beaten 11l at 28-1 on his latest outing in a Grade 1 NH flat race and Gordon Elliott's 5yr old could have a nice future over The Sticks.


Fairyhouse 3-50 Shannon Royale  1.76   £60 Win


Another for The Gordon Elliott/ Jack Kennedy Combo who was a winner at 10-3 in a NH flat race at Clonmel over 2m 1f  in April, beating dead-heaters Toad Hall and Walk Away Harry by 2 1/2l. Form has worked out So The Say..
Pause Switch to Standard View Never Back ODDS ON, so They Say
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Report GEORGE.B October 2, 2023 1:22 PM BST
Good luck with your latest venture, Billy
Report Hayden October 2, 2023 1:33 PM BST
Ditto , best of luck Billy will follow with interest  Happy
Report brassneck October 2, 2023 1:48 PM BST
Add a little pinch of Martingale to your recipe Billy and you will create a wonderful gambling Cake.Grin
Report Manoleeds October 2, 2023 1:54 PM BST
In theory if you make a horse shorter than what you can back at then you have a bet. I think Harry Findlay used to back novice hurdlers at 1.5 when he made them 1.25 -but the story is that he continued to back them at 1.5 when they were really 1.6.
Anyway good luck for sticking your head over the parapet.
Report slickster October 2, 2023 2:03 PM BST
O'hehir "napped" King of kingsfied. Guy would stop an avalanche. I would bail out if I were you. Should be OK with the other one as he hasn't jinxed it Grin.
Report Hayden October 2, 2023 2:09 PM BST
Billy has run previous threads slickster and will rightly do his own thing , he's clever and savvy enough to know that phrases like " someone is a jinx " is long term nonsense and will have zero bearing on how successful or otherwise the thread will become.


Good luck all Happy
Report longbridge October 2, 2023 2:16 PM BST
Which "they" say you shouldn't back odds-on?

So long as you are getting value, it should be a better strategy than backing odds-against, if only because variance is lower and long losing runs should not play such havoc with cashflow?
Report madhatters October 2, 2023 2:17 PM BST
GL BL
Good to see you back again
Hope you don't have to rely on stewards var Grin
Report formoftheace October 2, 2023 2:56 PM BST
One down one waiting….
Report Hayden October 2, 2023 3:20 PM BST
Pointless responding after each race Ace , it's a £5k bank and Billy sees it out until the death either way.
Report formoftheace October 2, 2023 3:24 PM BST
Ok…I’ll watch with interest
Report freddiewilliams October 2, 2023 3:30 PM BST
Will u still continue with the cistern if u lose  4 half k
Report Whippin Piccadilly October 2, 2023 3:42 PM BST
Another 5K bank? lol Looking at a loss even if the second odds on point goes in. Moving forward, you'll have to maintain an extremely high S/R to make a profit playing at those prices. My advice? Don't do it.
Report tanglefoot October 2, 2023 3:48 PM BST
I’ll sit on the loo for this one.Tongue Out
Report barstool October 2, 2023 3:56 PM BST
2nd favs would have been ok.
Report tanglefoot October 2, 2023 3:57 PM BST
Oh shii. nevertheless only 1 out 3 non handicap hurdles win at Fairy
Report tanglefoot October 2, 2023 3:57 PM BST
^^ favs
Report onlooker October 2, 2023 4:51 PM BST
You have got the old saying WRONG - Billy.

The saying is ....

'Never Back a horse that has NOT already WON at race, at Odds On.


Now you may well argue - But they both have Won Bumpers.


I would counter that with ... But Bumpers are NOT the same as Hurdle races ...

- as proven this afternoon.

- and - in the 3:15 Newton Abbot, too

1st  Afta Party 50/1
2nd  Roger Pol   6/5F
Report Rico-Dangleflaps October 2, 2023 5:02 PM BST
is this a pretendee bank or reel pleese?
Report DancingBraveTheBest October 2, 2023 5:11 PM BST
Billy will have last laugh imo......its a marathon not a sprintHappy
Report tanglefoot October 3, 2023 1:38 PM BST
Where is our Billy,Feronily 3.35 Galway 1/5 and Butch 4.05 Southwell 8/11 Devil
Report DancingBraveTheBest October 3, 2023 2:18 PM BST
You cant just back every odd on Tangle.....you WOULD end up in the poor house thenHappy
Report DancingBraveTheBest October 3, 2023 2:19 PM BST
One thing I know though is I am lumping on Billys next selection as it WILL winHappy
Report brassneck October 3, 2023 2:44 PM BST
Just Martingale Manchester City you can,t lose with a big five grand tank.Grin
Report brassneck October 3, 2023 2:53 PM BST
Minus a goal of courseWhoops
Report tanglefoot October 3, 2023 2:54 PM BST
Slickster will be on the case Laugh
Report slickster October 3, 2023 3:14 PM BST
We can only hope Billy is playing with counterfeit if this is how he bets. And anyone backing this feronily at 5s on coming from these quarters 1st time out and over nearly 3 miles is seriously delusional. Oh yeah and o'hehir, the biggest jinx ever to roam this earth, has NAPPED it!!!!!!
Report BESTMATE44 October 3, 2023 3:42 PM BST
Don't you just love Irish racing!
Report onlooker October 3, 2023 3:52 PM BST
You do - When you have Laid the FAV at 1.33

Winer - Well-backed from 12.0 to 3.5
Report Hayden October 3, 2023 4:01 PM BST
Reckon posting this is a waste of time for slickster but here goes.....

If whoever you're on about hadn't tipped the horse it would still have lost , the word jinx only means something to gamblers looking for excuses.


Best of luck  Happy
Report brassneck October 3, 2023 4:05 PM BST
After yesterday, irish racing fans favourite song is HIT THE ROAD JACK,if you link the song to irish racing you may save yourself a lot of money.Cry
Report Hayden October 3, 2023 4:06 PM BST
Does that mean you're laying them Brass and making lots of money  Happy
Report brassneck October 3, 2023 4:13 PM BST
i should do,the guy is really bad,if he had a brain he would be dangerous.AND i will say no more about him.apart from he is an awful jockey.Cry
Report slickster October 3, 2023 4:47 PM BST
Reckon posting this is a waste of time for Hayden but here goes.....
This guy O'hehir is as clueless as it gets. He would stop water going down a plughole. I've been watching him for years and NOTHING has changed. He "NAPPED " zarak the brave. The word is "NAPPED". This is his intelligence. Has been known to "NAP" 1-14 and 1-16 losers I kid not. Feronily another painfully rotten "nap". He supplements my income. The biggest JINX there is.
Best of luck Happy
Report Hayden October 3, 2023 4:56 PM BST
Firstly ,there's no such thing as a jinx , the word is just a ready made excuse for gamblers.

Secondly , if he didn't tip them i hope you're not suggesting even some of them would actually win.



Best of luck anyway slickster and each to their own.

PS , How can you be certain he's not laying them himself  Happy
Report DancingBraveTheBest October 5, 2023 1:33 PM BST
Billy, any idea when your next selection will be? CheersHappy
Report slickster October 5, 2023 1:37 PM BST
O'hehir wouldn't have the brains to lay them himself. He is naive gullible and clueless. Think Billy has gone underground.
Report Hayden October 5, 2023 1:48 PM BST
Apologies slickster , didn't know you knew him personally.
Report Rico-Dangleflaps October 5, 2023 2:21 PM BST
billy dont be hero,dont be a fool to yourself.
Report slickster October 5, 2023 6:21 PM BST
Don't need to know him "personally" Hayden. I've been laying his odds on "naps" for years. A money making machine he is. The biggest JINX to ever set foot on this earth. You should try it. Just do the OPPOSITE to what he says. You won't go wrong. Daily mirror. Irish version.
Report Hayden October 5, 2023 6:29 PM BST
Thanks , the day i start believing a jinx exists i'll give it a go  Happy
Report onlooker October 5, 2023 7:13 PM BST
Yours an slickster's conversation -re: 'Jinx'...

Immediately reminded me of the classic Bernard Manning joke ... about - Hymie (on his deathbed) and his wife Rebecca. Happy
Report Rico-Dangleflaps October 5, 2023 9:33 PM BST
best money mekking cistern going is..get a mate to pick a horse in every race and lay it...ching ching.
Report swift-tuttle October 6, 2023 12:10 PM BST
Can the actual SP odds influence the BFSP ROI?

    Odds (SP)         Bets          Wins          Win%          P/L(SP)          ROI(SP)          P/L(BF)          ROI(BF)    
    1.47        6        5        83.33%        1.35        22.5        1.54        25.64   
    3.7        37        12        32.43%        7.4        20        8.94        24.16   
    81        13147        82        0.62%        -6505        -49.48        1518.39        11.55   
    1.09        1        1        100%        0.09        9        0.09        8.82   
    1.18        133        118        88.72%        6.24        4.69        9.18        6.9   
    12        29692        2134        7.19%        -4133.5        -13.92        1702.47        5.73   
    301        1855        2        0.11%        -1253        -67.55        105.04        5.66   
    1.11        59        55        93.22%        2.05        3.47        3.11        5.28   
    1.3        375        295        78.67%        8.5        2.27        18.1        4.83   
    3.13        822        259        31.51%        -12.39        -1.51        37.56        4.57   
    8.5        19352        2026        10.47%        -2126.25        -10.99        721.24        3.73   
    1.03        5        5        100%        0.15        3        0.16        3.14   
    17        83431        3652        4.38%        -21460        -25.72        2480.74        2.97   
    15        70316        3656        5.20%        -15568        -22.14        1986.26        2.83   



The table is sorted on best BFSP ROI to a 1.00 stake and shows the top 14 over the period 2011 to 2023.

There is a practical problem in settinga  system up based on this because you can't be sure of the actual SP before the off (when you have to place your BFSP bet).
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