Blue Rose Cen 2.59 Betfair Sp

Guess i was the only one who backed the winner....
No help from anyone on here.
Bot slashing a huge chunk as they jumped.

lack of governance means padi can do whatever he wants.  if 2.59 bsp suits him then 2.59 it is.

who's checking ?  kpmg send someone along fresh out of south bank university with a degree in Culinary arts and ask her to check padi's not diddling the bsp's ??

I got 11/4 sportsbook. I thought she went off at about 4 here, slightly bigger in-running. I never saw 2.59 either.

Thats what i am trying to Find out was that the Betfair Sp exchange for everyone?
Or was i getting personally Shaffted and getting only 2.59?

It suggests that there was a large bet awaiting with option to take SP if not taken pre-race. Never worth doing that (unless you have no other option) .

Of course it was universal Mat. Was about £3k iirc 2.59.

9/2 sp there in the 1930 bsp 5.2

2.59 is the publically-declared BSP.

https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/result/longchamp/2023-10-01/1550/80/4

Its clear clicking the betfair sp button comes with high risks if the horse jumps out well as the bot will slash it odds and screw you over.
Thanks Longbridge. still feeling aggrieved as i had a big wedge on it and had to settle for 6/4 (2.59 plus commission) instead around 2/1.

This company certainly likes to move the goal posts in their favour.

ya that horse last night got out well. 5.2bsp to 9/2 bookie price..and perhaps it could have been even less depending on the bot. the place market sp beat the industry price though

You will always get the odd one in such erratic markets dominated late on by all this bloody software.

Mat22

was your "big wedge" straight BSP or "take BSP if unmatched"?

Backing and expecting a big price on BSP would be a pretty poor strategy for sure, so why take the risk?...but then again, surely it isn't always a low price, because if it was we could all win simply by laying at BSP every time...

If it was 3.2 before the off, what price were you asking for?

I think you're right stu - it's been a while but someone did an analysis of backing UK racing at BSP and the numbers came out almost flat (before commission, which is always the killer) so the usual assumption tha BSP is broadly a fair price seems true in the long run.

yep longbridge - I use take sp sometimes as a 'failsafe' but never deliberate method. But, discussing any particular price in isolation is fairly pointless, as the variability is likely in both directions at times.

I would agree however, it could be made clearer how it's generated.

Guess i was the only one who backed the winner....

No, a few of us did, BF and on course

As this was a French race, I also wonder what was liquidity like? That can skew any BSP also.

@stu

"I would agree however, it could be made clearer how it's generated."

I found this page years ago.  I think it is clear, though it is by no means simple to get one's head around (at least, not for me!).

https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/FAQs_detailedWorkings.html

s.kenbo 04 Oct 23 10:30 
If it was 3.2 before the off, what price were you asking for?






No answers forthcoming I notice.

I'm not sure anyone could actually work out a real market/selection BSP from that info page TBH - I do get some of the principles, but applying it to an actual selection looks almost impossible to do - I seem to recall hearing similar from one of the trading gurus, who basically said that as far as it matters, even with the info on some aspects of the calculations, it's basically impossible to work out in the real selections/markets.

stu - I think it is literally impossible to do because of the "take BSP if unmatched" money.

Absent that, given a few hours of spreadsheet time I think I could build a model to check the Near/Far projections BF publish on-site against the SP and Exchange money shown on the ladder.

yeh, there's a lot of invisible information needed to make the final calculation of the figure matched at BSP. Like you say which money is sitting waiting to be matched/cancelled at off is unknown to us. There can be really odd ones like a hidden big lump of money sitting at a big price, but with 'take sp' selected.

Like when the National wnr Noble **** won @50/1.
Didn't return anything like that with BSP.

I left a bet at 3.5 and ticked the box take betfair SP thinking if i dont get matched i will get around the 2/1 mark or 3.00..... it was hovering around 3.2 as they suspended next i get 2.59....
how they generate that and came to that conclusion is baffling....Bot went over the top IMO.

this was a group 1 race at longchamp with plenty of liquidity about not some mickey mouse race at PAU or cagnes sur mer

Maybe stu right poor strategy using betfair sp.......

So much for betfairs  claim  we are bets price 94% of the time!

The other 6% they stich you up!

@Mat22

"I left a bet at 3.5 and ticked the box take betfair SP"

Then I fear you may have been the agent of your own (and others!) misfortune, depending on how "big" your "big wedge" was - as Brian suggested near the top of the thread.

"Take BSP" bets are invisible to the BSP market (as stu and I alluded to in our discussion) until the market is suspended at the 'off' and the unmatched bet suddenly becomes added to the SP pool, which tends to drive down the BSP (for back bets, reverse true for lays).

"Take BSP" works well for the kind of £10 betting I do, I wouldn't want to try it with £1000.

@ longbridge

Yeah your probably on the money there. some good points raised on this thread by a few of you.