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Harry Findlay on T V last night.
Harry Findlay on T V last night.
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Replies: 89
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Daughters house (allegedly) which is worse….ffs
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I'm sure your right dealer in that case. The points I'm making are general. Bloom clearly not in it for kicks. Harry is. But most successful pro gamblers have got over a compulsive condition if they ever had one.
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I've mentioned this before but it's relevant to this thread.
H.F. Twitter profile @TheDogHarry states....... " Jackpot Betting Addict. " I doubt somehow that he has deposit limits or asked for A.C. checks with the nanny. |
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I do not know Mr Findlay except he once owned Denman - his claim-to-fame. Is he an overall winner on betting or does he lose more than he wins?
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According to the Kelly criterion your optimal bet is about 43.75% of your capital
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Showws how mad the Kelly staking system really is. Fancy having to gamble nearly half your capital on the toss of a coin! Call it wrong twice in a row and you've done two thirds of your entire bank.
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kelly is correct for optimal growth of a sum of capital, so any loss is just a matter of time to recover, but it's probably academic, as if you think that an 8-1 chace is actually even money, there is probably something quite significant that you've overlooked.
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2 wrong in a row and your left with ~ 25%
But that off a full bankroll... I doubt anyone would commit 100% of the roll. Gamblers/investors must think about staking for the next day/week/month/quarter |
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Your bank is £1,000. You lose 43.75% of that bank on the first toss. So you're left with £552.50
43.75% of £552.50 is £241.72. So, after two incorrect calls you will have lost £437.50 on the first toss, plus £241.72 on the second toss, equals £679.72, near enough two thirds. Either way, two thirds or three quarters, it's a mad way to bet. Dave: What you're arguing is that if you make an 8/1 shot even money, the Kelly system forces you to revise your pricing, for no other reason than you can't afford to use your staking system. Not because you've overlooked something. What if you go over the event again, and still make the 8/1 shot even money? What do you do now? The only option is to abandon Kelly. |
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but if you are a serious gambler then you are not all on a bet, no matter how good the odds offered are.
Thinking back to George Baker falling off in the Flying childers, nothing is a cert. Plus if you don't have a workable edge, ie you are getting 4/1 on an even money shot, then give up gambling and look on it as recreational punting. Do it down the pub and if you win buy a round and if you loose put it down to a good night out. |
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There are a few plays I've been involved in that have been practical certainties, ie barring an act of god. Due to most participants not fully understanding what they are betting on. They are obviously infrequent, and your stakes are still limited in regard to what you can get down. Not sports related, though.
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Dave: What you're arguing is that if you make an 8/1 shot even money, the Kelly system forces you to revise your pricing, for no other reason than you can't afford to use your staking system.
No I'm not. Kelly is about optimal growth. If you want to increase your capital at the fastest rate, you put the amount suggested on your selection. It doesn't matter what happens in the short term. I was being flippant (see cider in ear) with my comment about even money shots available at 8-1. Kelly also doesn't understand that you have eat, so while increasing your capital at the fastest rate, you need to make arrangements for that. |
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It's just theory isn't it. They will never legislate for people legitimately and systematically trying to profit from gambling anyway. So it's moot.
If I recall correctly, one of those times I was hitting my betfair exposure limit. In regular times, I don't ordinarily bet over £100. One of those opportunities was so great, I was trying to bet in k's on any platform that would take the cash (including bfex). I doubt I would be able to do it again, in the unlikely event of a similar opportunity arising. |
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Read Harry Findlays book watched a few videos and I have to say that I like the man without meeting him, the only thing I can’t work out is how he gets so much money on
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simple 1kev . if you are considered a long term mug punter you will get on . the key is long term . bookmakers will think that way . lots of punters dont .
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Read Gambling for life by Harry F and read Public enemy No 1 by Patrick Veitch.
Then ask yourself if you had a spare 50 large, who would you ask to invest it. |
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You are probably right Doctor, but what a hard read the Veitch book was.!
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10 million….and millions on the all blacks…..zzzz
A person with a 42inch @rse climbs down a 6 inch chimney every Xmas eve ffs….. |
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would harry pass the new betting checks
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Doubtful
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Unless it was Mr Curley or a trainer eg Mr Hills any other professional punter with a high profile ie big mouth I'm no fan of; a successful punter is intelligently quiet and modest whilst executing their next betting strategy. They do not tell the world and whoever willing to listen how it's done until near retirement or retirement.
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They turn to other means for fuel books,tv and other…..
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Mind you it’s all down to bottle if you have the cash would you have the bottle to ask for an even 20 large or any other ?
Plus can you deal with a loss mentality supposing you still have plenty of funds…. |
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Mentally
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formoftheace 30 Sep 23 09:29
Mind you it’s all down to bottle if you have the cash would you have the bottle to ask for an even 20 large or any other ? Plus can you deal with a loss mentality supposing you still have plenty of funds… A proper gambler can easily deal with losing streaks but if not then you really shouldn't be having bets. |
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All in the mind and not the pocket….imo
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apparently the best punters are those who turn large fortunes in to small fortunes as long as they can boast about some big wins in between,
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formoftheace 30 Sep 23 10:32
All in the mind and not the pocket….imo Losing streaks for real and not in the mind. |
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poster 25 Dec 05
apparently the best punters are those who turn large fortunes in to small fortunes as long as they can boast about some big wins in between nailed it  |
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I cannot imagine being a "pro" punter and not betting in 10's of thousands.
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Potts didn’t punt in thousands,or Nevison and probably countless others
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Potts that made his money from mining....
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If I see The Anorak at Salisbury on Thursday, I must ask him for a loan ...
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cacique 30 Sep 23 13:24
Potts that made his money from mining.. Different Potts |
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Quixall what planet have you been on? Dave Nevison not betting in thousands when he was doing it for a living is like saying you are successful at football betting!!!
Btw the Anorak got the hump because I mentioned that Dave was critical about how small Alans stakes were, I thought it was common knowledge at the time tbf. |
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everyday day is a school day!!
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Good point about kidology to get the money on. If they think Harry is out of control he gets the big money on ( or he did before recent nonsense )
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I’m very confident Nevison wasn’t punting in thousands
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