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Rosallion
Rosallion
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Owner has a petro dollar business
Cost no barrier  |
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The same bloke who owns Postponed who foregoes an ARC victory for petrol dollars at Meydan and the Coronation Cup at Epsom. He also moves his horses from Mr Cumani to Mr Varian. He thinks he knows better.
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I'm talking about when they declared. They did not know at that point it would be fast. Transport has to be booked, staff, travel, connections informed. If you want to be pedantic, they must have committed to run by the start of the week I would have thought.
All plans can be changed even half an hour before races. What's lost apart from money ? the race won worth 200k the winner plus group 1 status. |
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You're completely missing the point, deliberately I would say. Connections of top class horses trained in the UK that apparently hate soft going do not put Longchamp in October in their immediate plans, in the hope that it's the one time out of ten it will be fast going. They don't think, oh yes let's get this potentially extremely valuable stallion trained to racing pitch and pray it doesn't rain there for once. Yes you could definitely get connections hoping it would be soft, and end up pulling out if it turns up quick. It doesn't happen the other way around.
You'll get the premier races where they will still run on unsuitable going, Royal Ascot for example but yesterday's race is not one of those. There is more prestige in the Dewhurst, and more chance of getting quicker going (ordinarily). In the same way, you don't get fast ground horses aimed at the old RP. The quotes are actually crediting the owner for deciding to run in France. Prize money is not relevant, he is Blue Point's first g1 winner, and if he wins a premier g1 he won't be too far off that 1st prize for a single cover, of which there is five a day. |
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You seem to know rather a lot about what trainers definitely do which races are exactly the right targets and when prize money is not relevant. What a loss to racing you were
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I know enough to be aware that trainers who blame soft going for poor runs typically don't plan to run abroad, in Arc weekend a couple of weeks later. It's hardly pulling up trees, most people who take following racing seriously know that Longchamp in October is usually a bog. As I wrote upthread, in the same way you don't get soft ground horses targeting the BC.
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I might agree with 2yos but Trueshan is a soft ground horse but won on fast because at his age and a gelding, what did they have to lose by giving it a go.
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King is obviously infamous for pulling them out at the last minute! Trueshan running in the first place, and then winning easily suggested it wasn't that quick, at least on Sat. But the race times suggest otherwise. Fast side of good, probably bordering on GtF.
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All week the talk from Paris has been of sunny weather continuing to dry out Longchamp, with Sunday’s Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe set to be run on the soundest surface since Enable defeated Sea Of Class in 2018, yet the official going descriptions issued by France Galop continue to indicate conditions are much easier.
On Monday the going was described as very soft, while on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday it has been given as soft, although trending slightly drier each day at 3.7, then 3.6 and 3.5 on the descending scale of the penetrometer. Clerk of the course Charles de Cordon forecasts no rain between now and Sunday afternoon, and predicts a reading of 3.3, or good to soft, so why all the talk of a fast-ground Arc? Two years ago France Galop began using the TurfTrax GoingStick as a second measure of the amount of moisture in the ground; not to replace the penetrometer, but to augment it with a going scale and description which would be recognisable to British and Irish trainers and punters. |
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Ground was obviously safe and slightly easier on Saturday. Some horses keep winning on soft without being mudlarks. Stamina test being the key. Don't think Trueshan needs soft ground per se. Certainly one of his best performances was on the AW.
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I think Trueshan was "hurt" humping 10st 8lbs in a handicap AW race of very good prize money.
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clearly likes top of the ground. It could have dried up at Donny so because he was such a good horse layers didn't get stuck in early.
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running on soft will be the 'acid test', but fair chance that will never happen again.
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5/4 fav for the Sussex Stakes. Anyone antepost?
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Of course it won't happen but that will let you always think you were onto something.
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No I don't think so. My main angle was the he was flattered at Ascot originally but I abandoned that theory after the English 2000. I still don't feel like that terrible performance can be attributed to the going.
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Well terrible performances can always be something other than the going no matter how bad it is but the way I think it was 95% going. It stops trains if they don't act on it. ( eg Baaeed Ascot ) He clearly loves very quick ground which is usually a very good steer in these matters. Your main point though was the drift came on the day. Well the ground could have dried out and we didn't know for sure whether he would handle it. But on the day layers knew the going and many thought at the odds a horse that had won his first two races impressively on top of the ground was worth taking on.
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I stand by that but neither of us can prove it either way. It's a redundant topic now unless he pops up of softish going again.
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I would go further than that. He could win on soft going not as tacky as Doncaster and if the opposition was poor say small field and say if they don't like it either. The whole game is built on good guesswork not acid tests imo.
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If nothing untoward is found for the underpar performance of Notable Speech earlier come the Sussex on good going I'd give the horse another chance at 7/1. I think the ground suited Rosallion best today hence the money. The runner-up Henry Longfellow would be my selection on soft going, before Notable Speech
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You're talking about the market. Considering he was not unproven on soft, and now you claim he is, the market should price him up very generously compared to the proven form on faster going. Or you think the market knew Donny was 'tacky' and that's the only going he hates. Which I would move, is stretching credibility somewhat!
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Many fast ground horses will go on on sloppy soft. Who knows what the ground is before racing ? There's often a big difference between Timeform and Official ( Racing Post results ) AFTER the race. The main thing is how good are and what is their optimum trip which can change with conditions. On it's likely campaign going forward it's unlikely ever to be priced generously even if it runs on soft which it almost certainly will not do. At Donny enough layers thought he was best suited by ground on the quick side. Ground can dry up but whatever the exact condition was many on the day including me thought there was a real chance of an issue. But he's such a good horse he still started odds-on ( 4/5 )
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