Rosallion

Burst
BUBBLE

Another big drifter. If they didn't fancy it, why run? Third money hardy needed by the owner!

clearly ground but do you know until they have run on it ? ( hence the drift )

Bookies seemed to be pretty certain it wouldn't win on it. But what do they know...

Doesn't quite tally as the ground should have been priced in.

It was priced in.  No way 4/5 SP and odds against here  on good ground.

more like 1/2 or shorter

Correct, howard.

But 4/6 would have been short enough.

Priced in in the early trading obviously. I looked at the market last night and it was 1.4*. This morning it was 1.3*. The going was not an an known, if anything it has been drying conditions.

not an unknown

and this race was not illiquid. I've seen enough trading on here to know that the massive drift was not down to going that was already a known variable. If it tipped down cats and dogs for 2 hours, that would be different. But it didn't.

cider jockey blamed the ground pure and simple.  Bookies open up short to test the market. Punters ( the bigger ones ) didn't want 1/2 or even 4/6. Bookies and layers on here had to go to a "crazy " price on form.  Why ? The ground.  Bookies would take on secretariat frankel and ribot rolled into one on tacky ground.  It pays the wages long run.

What do you think he was going to say, my stallion prospect was not good enough

I'm not saying there was anything nefarious but in my view that drift was not due to ground that was already priced in to today's racing.

Good old Richard jr

And though  bookies would take on champions on that ground ( eg. Baeed )  they will certainly do it with ones like this one  that might not be much superior ( or at all ) anyway.

don't think you understand bookmaking cider. I had a licence.

Sep 16, 2023 -- 2:28PM, howard wrote:

don't think you understand bookmaking cider. I had a licence.

HOw do they price up?

I think they price everything short and push out to test where the money will come.
And they also "create" a steamer that has no fking chance of winning but everyone thinks its money that is moving it.

Somebody's burst bubble wasn't mine - I aim to always miss the boat with certain trainers and am happy. Anyway 3rd run and wasn't dreadful, see it again somewhere wish connections well

'How do they price up?'

I'm assuming the Champagne Stakes was an AP race, then DOR betfair is the tissue. That's what I'm trying to get across to betting 'expert' howard. This was a mature market, and the ground conditions where known, with racing on the track the day before. If the professionals thought that there was a significant prospect that the fav would flop on the known going, no way would that price have held solid for so long. In my strong opinion, anyway.

fwiw I backed Sunway in the race, win only. As I feel he is a smart one, and that Ascot run was too bad to be true. Of course, he turned the form right around with the jolly, and I still lost on the race

highly likely the  connections didn't know whether he would handle the ground. If he does he could win 5 lengths or more. If not well beat. No way would punters have let the price go 7/4 or more. There was clearly hope that he would handle it. In the end you were largely betting on whether he would go on it.

there aren't many mature  markets regarding the shorties these days it all happens last 5 minutes to the bigger money

It's hardly bottomless and he was rated 11lb clear on ratings, with his form working out extremely strongly and well advertised with a horse he had stuffed bolting up yesterday at the same meeting. He had scope to underperform and still win.

I suspect there was knowledge in the market to whales. But we may never what that was.

Was it Harzand who drifted significantly before the Derby? and unknown to the public, he had a late injury scare and nearly didn't run. enough people knew to move the market that was one of the most liquid of them all.

I don't remember, D.Weld and betting patterns though

Bookies could retire on what they've made this flat season. What a farce it has been.

There was a massive drifter at RA this year, and it transpired after the race that the horse had some kind of injury, and there was a dispute between the trainer and the owner about whether to run it or not. George Boughey possibly?

Yes his Coventry hope, switched stable now

Sure there are always dodgy cases but if that was one I will pack in. The trainers look after the owner. You would always say you are are hopeful or the owner would say why the feck are you running my valuable horse on tacky ground ? There was nothing to say the horse wouldn't make class tell and handle it. I wouldn't have layed it at evens.

I wouldn't necessarily say it was dodgy, but very often big players in the market have knowledge that is not public. Over jumps, a horse might have fallen in schooling for example. That would impact the true price. Which is what this one smells like to me. It doesn't mean that the horse can't win most of the time (unless it's the really dodgy characters), just that it has been theoretically compromised in one way or another.

Nothing to see for me but defer to others. Hannon thinking his geese are swans as usual would be my feeling, and others maybe just didn't take him up on it. It apparently had good timings so I don't know - always try and miss the bloke out no matter so didn't see much

Its amazing how the bookies "know" all the time!!

Over excited imaginations trying to find a link between a horse priced up at 1/2 goes off at 4/5 and gets beaten..

Turns out he either wasn't good enough, or was a non jigger

Cider, you were on the right lines opposing the fav.  I tried too hard and even put the remaining 4 in a small Trifecta perm to get the favourite stuffed.
Sunway finished lame behind Rosallion last time. If he'd run true, maybe to a length in second, then it wouldn't have been a visually stunning performance to sway so many to think Rosallion was nailed on today. Also, of course nothing in Rosallion's form to say he'd won on soft ground.

Frogger, the animal was 11/1 for his Ascot romp. The form had worked out beautifully (so far). Personally I feel that straight track form at Ascot can be unreliable. Perhaps gamblers close to the Hannon barn knew that he had been flattered based on home work. Will be very interesting to see how he goes on the next outing.

Listening Cider. He was talked up since then, but like I say I try and miss out from that quarter

Will be interesting to see how Sunway goes on for here too, Tattcorner. Knowing how the trainer operates, and they have blown a workable handicap mark. He will move forward for holding up and a trip.

Sums up flat racing that punters now think a 'gamble' is backing a horse from 2/5 to 1/10.

MJK is correct. It's a guaranteed moneymaker for them.

In the last race you would have thought Sandrine would have struggled on the ground, and Biggles would have loved it. Result Sandrine wins comfortably, and Moore makes Biggles look unrideable for the second race in succession.

The game has become too unpredictable. Whether it is borne out of something dodgy, or sheer incompetence, it is the same result for the punter. You shouldn't have to have inside knowledge, or just bet in running to win. Next year time to take a nice break after Royal Ascot, and save money. Even without gambling, other sports are now a much more entertaining watch.

"We've decided to go to the Champagne Stakes with Rosallion," Hannon said. "It's a nice flat track for him and we didn't want to chuck him in a Group 1 race just yet. We want to give him a bit more experience before that.

"We always thought he was a good horse but we were really taken with the improvement he showed after his win at Newbury.

A clue or two there I suppose, looking back. Not exactly raving about him. Suspect that he has only shown that form once, ie not at home.

There would have been more hope, plus was a podcast appearance I think. That's Hannon restrained, and how intelligent given the result. Can't believe I'm discussing the fellow - pip pip all the best

Some good points Cider especially regards Ascot and the stable. Betting has moved even further to the high liquidity much later in recent times. Of course late rain a couple of hours changes betting dramatically but in races like this the "early" action goes on rather a long time these days with loads of smaller players that aren't really ground dependent on their bets unless it's already soft/heavy WITH MORE RAIN FORECAST. With the latter situation the layers can get stuck in early. It wasn't clear cut enough here because the ground wasn't desperate and little/no more rain was forecast. So until very late when more bigger players on both sides got involved the price held up on a horse that was very good on figures/form. In the end there was highly likely doubt in trainer's mind with tacky ground whatever the going description and the bigger punters were not going to play at odds they surely would have on good or quicker.

bookies are going to get cold/bored trying to lay this at 1 to 2 on fastewr ground in next few races,unless one of the usual suspects/soppy people on here are walking by,
yesterday/morning line/itv/ interviewing jock pre race reminded me of when dobbs told the world chindt coudnt be beaten best piece of work ever seen at hannons blah,blah before bombing out

Running in the Lagardere today. Certainly don't ordinarily enter and run in Longchamp on Arc weekend if seeking good or fast going. Times yesterday suggesting it's not bottomless, not sure how reliable the standards are on the new course in France. Trueshan certainly seemed to enjoy it.

Well done winners.

Class performance

Fair play good win, but owe the jock on the jollie there - dreadful ride.

Good winner, came past the second who had the run of the race.

Didn't settle great early and shifted left and took a few lengths to start going but was comfy in the finish. Great ride

Yes that was more like the 'Ascot' Rosallion. I'm still not convinced that his monumental drift and soft defeat at Donny was due to the going. But the ground looked quick enough there today, visually anyway. According to LoS the jockeys were reporting it as the faster side of good yesterday.

Time tipped ahead of standard. No soft in it, seemingly.

Levey said: “I was always going to win today. He had his ground and that’s how good he is

“We always thought he was a good horse and the ground was the reason he ran like he did last time. We were worried about the draw and he’s done really well to win.

“I’ve always thought of him as a Guineas horse.”

A delighted Hannon said: “It was very sticky ground at Doncaster and he hated it, but I was so disappointed – I couldn’t believe he got beat. We scoped him afterwards and everything was fine and the only thing I can put it down to was the ground.

Of course, we know they blamed the going after the race in Donny. But they still entered and declared in Longchamp which is usually a bog. It's actually very fast going.

We may never find out if the horse avoids cut for the remainder of its career.

cider his drift at Donny was due to worries about the ground in the punters minds. He didn't drift that much because there was a chance the ground would dry up as there was little rain forecast. By the race day it was clear the ground was unlikely to be ideal but he's such a good horse nobody on here or anywhere else would lay fancy prices and he started 4/5.   Nowt else to it imo.

I was always going to win today.

Must have had a crystal ball for how the jollie would be ridden out of possible contention too. How did he know that?

Today's sp suggests otherwise, as it should have been the reverse, and smashed in the market. Or are you claiming it would have gone off at circa 5-1 if it had been pulled out of Donny?

Most people did not write that race off as down to unsuitable going. As I state though, we may now never know for sure.

Notable also that nobody posted on this thread after I brought it back until after the result

I followed your post cider but just to congratulate the winners.

And 6 hours afterwards

I didn't play in the race, personally. Just thought it was interesting that he was running in Longchamp as the next run, considering 9/10 times, Longchamp is a swamp, but they blamed the going for the underwhelming rum. As it turned out, it's very quick, but there's no way they knew that would be the case when declaring to run.

Hope you don't mind me saying Cider but I suspect you haven't made money from betting say the last 20 years. You think too much what other people are thinking and how other people are punting.   ( "Today's sp suggests otherwise / most people did not write that race off as down to unsuitable going".  )   
At York August Marhaba the champ won 8/1 ( 10/15 goodwood soft ) Silver Sword 15/2 ( 7/15 goodwood soft ) Warm Heart 9/1 ( 5/8 Curragh soft )

I don't mind you saying it all. It is quite incorrect, mind

Cider you throw the dice. You don't know what any ground is until day of race and sometimes during racing. And courses have different soil /surfaces. Getting beat at say Ffos Las on soft wouldn't put me off running a horse at Catterick on soft. Donny can get sticky and it's sometimes sloppy at Longchamp and you get away with it.

And connections of stallion prospects will never say that their horse wasn't good enough. In fact, it is rare in racing for the trainer of any fav that gets stuffed to admit to that. I do know that connections who don't want soft ground for a potential classic/stallion horse wouldn't usually put Longchamp in October in their plans.

In a similar way, they don't send ones who need cut over to the BC. Rosallion could easily have been boxed off until next year. I listen to what connections say, but in most cases it is useless. You do however, once in a while, get some useful gems.

Yes they say things and they do things. But experienced trainers when blaming the ground are usually right. Today it was quick and he liked it. There was a an unbeaten horse in the race on home soil and C&D winner.  Guess what ground he had been winning on ?

We'll only see that tested if he runs on softish again. Today was run on unseasonably quick going.

Funnily enough I saw Hannon interviewed before the race and he said 'on the day, we blamed it on the going'. Which is an odd way of phrasing it.

Anyhow, let's see how the career goes, today was inclusive. If it comes up soft for the SJP for example, let's see if he is pulled out of the race.

by the way unless you or anyone else posts for starters 3 months p&l  we don't really know

He got stuck in the mud last time and drifted like a barge. He atoned big time today.

Plenty of posters on here know I'm a long term winner. Willie waving not required

So if he never runs on soft again you were correct. Nice one.

I've not done horse racing 'professionally' for many years tho. I used to, until I found something that I was much better at, and concentrated the serious stuff in that area. I still like to profit on hr obviously, but mostly it's recreational on the horses, I love the sport and winner finding.

He'll go for the 2000G. However, he'll not run if the ground is soft or worse, according to trainer.

As I've indicated, they put Arc weekend in his plans, so I feel like that suggests I'm right, but does not prove it. I don't know any serious trainer who determines that they need to avoid soft will a stallion prospect, and then plans the next run at Longchamp in October.

It's not like you just turn up in France on the day. They decided to run a long time before it looked like it could turn up unseasonably quick.

"They decided to run..."    They didn't DECIDE TO RUN  they just kept him in the race. Sometimes it's a bit warmer and dry in Paris than England. Don't tell me what it's normally like. It was very quick when Golden Horn won. ( after getting beat on slower ground at York btw )

I'm talking about when they declared. They did not know at that point it would be fast. Transport has to be booked, staff, travel, connections informed. If you want to be pedantic, they must have committed to run by the start of the week I would have thought.

I think info from weather and locals. Mr Gosden stated yesterday ground was Good; tomorrow ie today would be Good to Firm.

Owner has a petro dollar business
Cost no barrier

The same bloke who owns Postponed who foregoes an ARC victory for petrol dollars at Meydan and the Coronation Cup at Epsom. He also moves his horses from Mr Cumani to Mr Varian. He thinks he knows better.

I'm talking about when they declared. They did not know at that point it would be fast. Transport has to be booked, staff, travel, connections informed. If you want to be pedantic, they must have committed to run by the start of the week I would have thought.

All plans can be changed even half an hour before races. What's lost apart from money ? the race won worth 200k the winner plus group 1 status.

You're completely missing the point, deliberately I would say. Connections of top class horses trained in the UK that apparently hate soft going do not put Longchamp in October in their immediate plans, in the hope that it's the one time out of ten it will be fast going. They don't think, oh yes let's get this potentially extremely valuable stallion trained to racing pitch and pray it doesn't rain there for once. Yes you could definitely get connections hoping it would be soft, and end up pulling out if it turns up quick. It doesn't happen the other way around.

You'll get the premier races where they will still run on unsuitable going, Royal Ascot for example but yesterday's race is not one of those. There is more prestige in the Dewhurst, and more chance of getting quicker going (ordinarily). In the same way, you don't get fast ground horses aimed at the old RP.

The quotes are actually crediting the owner for deciding to run in France.

Prize money is not relevant, he is Blue Point's first g1 winner, and if he wins a premier g1 he won't be too far off that 1st prize for a single cover, of which there is five a day.

You seem to know rather a lot about what trainers definitely do which races are exactly the right targets and when prize money is not relevant. What a loss to racing you were

I know enough to be aware that trainers who blame soft going for poor runs typically don't plan to run abroad, in Arc weekend a couple of weeks later. It's hardly pulling up trees, most people who take following racing seriously know that Longchamp in October is usually a bog. As I wrote upthread, in the same way you don't get soft ground horses targeting the BC.

I might agree with 2yos but Trueshan is a soft ground horse but won on fast because at his age and a gelding, what did they have to lose by giving it a go.

King is obviously infamous for pulling them out at the last minute! Trueshan running in the first place, and then winning easily suggested it wasn't that quick, at least on Sat. But the race times suggest otherwise. Fast side of good, probably bordering on GtF.

All week the talk from Paris has been of sunny weather continuing to dry out Longchamp, with Sunday’s Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe set to be run on the soundest surface since Enable defeated Sea Of Class in 2018, yet the official going descriptions issued by France Galop continue to indicate conditions are much easier.

On Monday the going was described as very soft, while on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday it has been given as soft, although trending slightly drier each day at 3.7, then 3.6 and 3.5 on the descending scale of the penetrometer.

Clerk of the course Charles de Cordon forecasts no rain between now and Sunday afternoon, and predicts a reading of 3.3, or good to soft, so why all the talk of a fast-ground Arc?

Two years ago France Galop began using the TurfTrax GoingStick as a second measure of the amount of moisture in the ground; not to replace the penetrometer, but to augment it with a going scale and description which would be recognisable to British and Irish trainers and punters.

Ground was obviously safe and slightly easier on Saturday. Some horses keep winning on soft without being mudlarks. Stamina test being the key. Don't think Trueshan needs soft ground per se. Certainly one of his best performances was on the AW.

I think Trueshan was "hurt" humping 10st 8lbs in a handicap AW race of very good prize money.

clearly likes top of the ground. It could have dried up at Donny so because he was such a good horse layers didn't get stuck in early.

running on soft will be the 'acid test', but fair chance that will never happen again.

5/4 fav for the Sussex Stakes. Anyone antepost?

Of course it won't happen but that will let you always think you were onto something.

No I don't think so. My main angle was the he was flattered at Ascot originally but I abandoned that theory after the English 2000. I still don't feel like that terrible performance can be attributed to the going.

Well terrible performances can always be something other than the going no matter how bad it is but the way I think it was 95% going. It stops trains if they don't act on it. ( eg Baaeed Ascot )  He clearly loves very quick ground which is usually a very good steer in these matters.  Your main point though was the drift came on the day. Well the ground could have dried out and we didn't know for sure whether he would handle it.  But on the day layers knew the going and many thought at the odds a horse that had won his first two races impressively on top of the ground was worth taking on.

I stand by that but neither of us can prove it either way. It's a redundant topic now unless he pops up of softish going again.

I would go further than that. He could win on soft going not as tacky as Doncaster and if the opposition was poor say small field and say if they don't like it either.  The whole game is built on good guesswork not acid tests imo.

If nothing untoward is found for the underpar performance of Notable Speech earlier come the Sussex on good going I'd give the horse another chance at 7/1. I think the ground suited Rosallion best today hence the money. The runner-up Henry Longfellow would be my selection on soft going, before Notable Speech

You're talking about the market. Considering he was not unproven on soft, and now you claim he is, the market should price him up very generously compared to the proven form on faster going. Or you think the market knew Donny was 'tacky' and that's the only going he hates. Which I would move, is stretching credibility somewhat!

Many fast ground horses will go on on sloppy soft. Who knows what the ground is before racing ? There's often a big difference between Timeform and Official ( Racing Post results )  AFTER the race. The main thing is how good are and what is their optimum trip which can change with conditions. On it's likely campaign going forward it's unlikely ever to be priced generously even if it runs on soft which it almost certainly will not do. At Donny enough layers thought he was best suited by ground on the quick side. Ground can dry up but whatever the exact condition was many on the day including me thought there was a real chance of an issue. But he's such a good horse he still started odds-on ( 4/5 )