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another monster boost ( dancing gemini )
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now
1.73  |
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Burst
BUBBLE |
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Another big drifter. If they didn't fancy it, why run? Third money hardy needed by the owner!
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clearly ground but do you know until they have run on it ? ( hence the drift )
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Bookies seemed to be pretty certain it wouldn't win on it. But what do they know...
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Doesn't quite tally as the ground should have been priced in.
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It was priced in. No way 4/5 SP and odds against here on good ground.
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more like 1/2 or shorter
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Correct, howard.
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But 4/6 would have been short enough.
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Priced in in the early trading obviously. I looked at the market last night and it was 1.4*. This morning it was 1.3*. The going was not an an known, if anything it has been drying conditions.
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not an unknown
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and this race was not illiquid. I've seen enough trading on here to know that the massive drift was not down to going that was already a known variable. If it tipped down cats and dogs for 2 hours, that would be different. But it didn't.
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cider jockey blamed the ground pure and simple. Bookies open up short to test the market. Punters ( the bigger ones ) didn't want 1/2 or even 4/6. Bookies and layers on here had to go to a "crazy " price on form. Why ? The ground. Bookies would take on secretariat frankel and ribot rolled into one on tacky ground. It pays the wages long run.
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What do you think he was going to say, my stallion prospect was not good enough
 I'm not saying there was anything nefarious but in my view that drift was not due to ground that was already priced in to today's racing. |
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Good old Richard jr
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And though bookies would take on champions on that ground ( eg. Baeed ) they will certainly do it with ones like this one that might not be much superior ( or at all ) anyway.
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don't think you understand bookmaking cider. I had a licence.
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Somebody's burst bubble wasn't mine - I aim to always miss the boat with certain trainers and am happy. Anyway 3rd run and wasn't dreadful, see it again somewhere wish connections well
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'How do they price up?'
I'm assuming the Champagne Stakes was an AP race, then DOR betfair is the tissue. That's what I'm trying to get across to betting 'expert' howard. This was a mature market, and the ground conditions where known, with racing on the track the day before. If the professionals thought that there was a significant prospect that the fav would flop on the known going, no way would that price have held solid for so long. In my strong opinion, anyway. |
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fwiw I backed Sunway in the race, win only. As I feel he is a smart one, and that Ascot run was too bad to be true. Of course, he turned the form right around with the jolly, and I still lost on the race
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highly likely the connections didn't know whether he would handle the ground. If he does he could win 5 lengths or more. If not well beat. No way would punters have let the price go 7/4 or more. There was clearly hope that he would handle it. In the end you were largely betting on whether he would go on it.
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there aren't many mature markets regarding the shorties these days it all happens last 5 minutes to the bigger money
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It's hardly bottomless and he was rated 11lb clear on ratings, with his form working out extremely strongly and well advertised with a horse he had stuffed bolting up yesterday at the same meeting. He had scope to underperform and still win.
I suspect there was knowledge in the market to whales. But we may never what that was. |
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Was it Harzand who drifted significantly before the Derby? and unknown to the public, he had a late injury scare and nearly didn't run. enough people knew to move the market that was one of the most liquid of them all.
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I don't remember, D.Weld and betting patterns though
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Bookies could retire on what they've made this flat season. What a farce it has been.
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There was a massive drifter at RA this year, and it transpired after the race that the horse had some kind of injury, and there was a dispute between the trainer and the owner about whether to run it or not. George Boughey possibly?
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Yes his Coventry hope, switched stable now
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Sure there are always dodgy cases but if that was one I will pack in. The trainers look after the owner. You would always say you are are hopeful or the owner would say why the feck are you running my valuable horse on tacky ground ? There was nothing to say the horse wouldn't make class tell and handle it. I wouldn't have layed it at evens.
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I wouldn't necessarily say it was dodgy, but very often big players in the market have knowledge that is not public. Over jumps, a horse might have fallen in schooling for example. That would impact the true price. Which is what this one smells like to me. It doesn't mean that the horse can't win most of the time (unless it's the really dodgy characters), just that it has been theoretically compromised in one way or another.
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Nothing to see for me but defer to others. Hannon thinking his geese are swans as usual would be my feeling, and others maybe just didn't take him up on it. It apparently had good timings so I don't know - always try and miss the bloke out no matter so didn't see much
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Its amazing how the bookies "know" all the time!!
Over excited imaginations trying to find a link between a horse priced up at 1/2 goes off at 4/5 and gets beaten.. Turns out he either wasn't good enough, or was a non jigger |
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Cider, you were on the right lines opposing the fav. I tried too hard and even put the remaining 4 in a small Trifecta perm to get the favourite stuffed.
Sunway finished lame behind Rosallion last time. If he'd run true, maybe to a length in second, then it wouldn't have been a visually stunning performance to sway so many to think Rosallion was nailed on today. Also, of course nothing in Rosallion's form to say he'd won on soft ground. |
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Frogger, the animal was 11/1 for his Ascot romp. The form had worked out beautifully (so far). Personally I feel that straight track form at Ascot can be unreliable. Perhaps gamblers close to the Hannon barn knew that he had been flattered based on home work. Will be very interesting to see how he goes on the next outing.
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Listening Cider. He was talked up since then, but like I say I try and miss out from that quarter
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Will be interesting to see how Sunway goes on for here too, Tattcorner. Knowing how the trainer operates, and they have blown a workable handicap mark. He will move forward for holding up and a trip.
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Sums up flat racing that punters now think a 'gamble' is backing a horse from 2/5 to 1/10.
MJK is correct. It's a guaranteed moneymaker for them. In the last race you would have thought Sandrine would have struggled on the ground, and Biggles would have loved it. Result Sandrine wins comfortably, and Moore makes Biggles look unrideable for the second race in succession. The game has become too unpredictable. Whether it is borne out of something dodgy, or sheer incompetence, it is the same result for the punter. You shouldn't have to have inside knowledge, or just bet in running to win. Next year time to take a nice break after Royal Ascot, and save money. Even without gambling, other sports are now a much more entertaining watch. |