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Rosallion

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By:
Cider
When: 16 Sep 23 15:57
"We've decided to go to the Champagne Stakes with Rosallion," Hannon said. "It's a nice flat track for him and we didn't want to chuck him in a Group 1 race just yet. We want to give him a bit more experience before that.

"We always thought he was a good horse but we were really taken with the improvement he showed after his win at Newbury.


A clue or two there I suppose, looking back. Not exactly raving about him. Suspect that he has only shown that form once, ie not at home.
By:
Frogger
When: 16 Sep 23 16:04
There would have been more hope, plus was a podcast appearance I think. That's Hannon restrained, and how intelligent given the result. Can't believe I'm discussing the fellow - pip pip all the best
By:
howard
When: 16 Sep 23 20:09
Some good points Cider especially regards Ascot and the stable. Betting has moved even further to the high liquidity much later in recent times. Of course late rain a couple of hours changes betting dramatically but in races like this the "early" action goes on rather a long time these days with loads of smaller players that aren't really ground dependent on their bets unless it's already soft/heavy WITH MORE RAIN FORECAST. With the latter situation the layers can get stuck in early. It wasn't clear cut enough here because the ground wasn't desperate and little/no more rain was forecast. So until very late when more bigger players on both sides got involved the price held up on a horse that was very good on figures/form. In the end there was highly likely doubt in trainer's mind with tacky ground whatever the going description and the bigger punters were not going to play at odds they surely would have on good or quicker.
By:
1st time poster
When: 17 Sep 23 13:37
bookies are going to get cold/bored trying to lay this at 1 to 2 on fastewr ground in next few races,unless one of the usual suspects/soppy people on here are walking by,
yesterday/morning line/itv/ interviewing jock pre race reminded me of when dobbs told the world chindt coudnt be beaten best piece of work ever seen at hannons blah,blah before bombing out
By:
Cider
When: 01 Oct 23 07:27
Running in the Lagardere today. Certainly don't ordinarily enter and run in Longchamp on Arc weekend if seeking good or fast going. Times yesterday suggesting it's not bottomless, not sure how reliable the standards are on the new course in France. Trueshan certainly seemed to enjoy it.
By:
sparrow
When: 01 Oct 23 13:20
Well done winners.
By:
Angela Rebecchi
When: 01 Oct 23 13:21
Class performance
By:
stu
When: 01 Oct 23 13:22
Fair play good win, but owe the jock on the jollie there - dreadful ride.
By:
sageform
When: 01 Oct 23 13:26
Good winner, came past the second who had the run of the race.
By:
Angela Rebecchi
When: 01 Oct 23 13:28
Didn't settle great early and shifted left and took a few lengths to start going but was comfy in the finish. Great ride
By:
Cider
When: 01 Oct 23 13:31
Yes that was more like the 'Ascot' Rosallion. I'm still not convinced that his monumental drift and soft defeat at Donny was due to the going. But the ground looked quick enough there today, visually anyway. According to LoS the jockeys were reporting it as the faster side of good yesterday.
By:
Cider
When: 01 Oct 23 13:37
Time tipped ahead of standard. No soft in it, seemingly.
By:
howard
When: 01 Oct 23 15:47
Levey said: “I was always going to win today. He had his ground and that’s how good he is

“We always thought he was a good horse and the ground was the reason he ran like he did last time. We were worried about the draw and he’s done really well to win.

“I’ve always thought of him as a Guineas horse.”

A delighted Hannon said: “It was very sticky ground at Doncaster and he hated it, but I was so disappointed – I couldn’t believe he got beat. We scoped him afterwards and everything was fine and the only thing I can put it down to was the ground.
By:
Cider
When: 01 Oct 23 15:52
Of course, we know they blamed the going after the race in Donny. But they still entered and declared in Longchamp which is usually a bog. It's actually very fast going.

We may never find out if the horse avoids cut for the remainder of its career.
By:
howard
When: 01 Oct 23 15:53
cider his drift at Donny was due to worries about the ground in the punters minds. He didn't drift that much because there was a chance the ground would dry up as there was little rain forecast. By the race day it was clear the ground was unlikely to be ideal but he's such a good horse nobody on here or anywhere else would lay fancy prices and he started 4/5.   Nowt else to it imo.
By:
stu
When: 01 Oct 23 15:54
I was always going to win today.

Must have had a crystal ball for how the jollie would be ridden out of possible contention too. How did he know that?
By:
Cider
When: 01 Oct 23 15:56
Today's sp suggests otherwise, as it should have been the reverse, and smashed in the market. Or are you claiming it would have gone off at circa 5-1 if it had been pulled out of Donny?
By:
Cider
When: 01 Oct 23 15:57
Most people did not write that race off as down to unsuitable going. As I state though, we may now never know for sure.
By:
Cider
When: 01 Oct 23 16:00
Notable also that nobody posted on this thread after I brought it back until after the result Laugh
By:
sparrow
When: 01 Oct 23 16:05
I followed your post cider but just to congratulate the winners.
By:
sparrow
When: 01 Oct 23 16:05
And 6 hours afterwards Grin
By:
Cider
When: 01 Oct 23 16:11
I didn't play in the race, personally. Just thought it was interesting that he was running in Longchamp as the next run, considering 9/10 times, Longchamp is a swamp, but they blamed the going for the underwhelming rum. As it turned out, it's very quick, but there's no way they knew that would be the case when declaring to run.
By:
howard
When: 01 Oct 23 16:17
Hope you don't mind me saying Cider but I suspect you haven't made money from betting say the last 20 years. You think too much what other people are thinking and how other people are punting.   ( "Today's sp suggests otherwise / most people did not write that race off as down to unsuitable going".  )   
At York August Marhaba the champ won 8/1 ( 10/15 goodwood soft ) Silver Sword 15/2 ( 7/15 goodwood soft ) Warm Heart 9/1 ( 5/8 Curragh soft )
By:
Cider
When: 01 Oct 23 16:21
I don't mind you saying it all. It is quite incorrect, mind Happy
By:
howard
When: 01 Oct 23 16:23
Cider you throw the dice. You don't know what any ground is until day of race and sometimes during racing. And courses have different soil /surfaces. Getting beat at say Ffos Las on soft wouldn't put me off running a horse at Catterick on soft. Donny can get sticky and it's sometimes sloppy at Longchamp and you get away with it.
By:
Cider
When: 01 Oct 23 16:26
And connections of stallion prospects will never say that their horse wasn't good enough. In fact, it is rare in racing for the trainer of any fav that gets stuffed to admit to that. I do know that connections who don't want soft ground for a potential classic/stallion horse wouldn't usually put Longchamp in October in their plans.
By:
Cider
When: 01 Oct 23 16:30
In a similar way, they don't send ones who need cut over to the BC. Rosallion could easily have been boxed off until next year. I listen to what connections say, but in most cases it is useless. You do however, once in a while, get some useful gems.
By:
howard
When: 01 Oct 23 16:39
Yes they say things and they do things. But experienced trainers when blaming the ground are usually right. Today it was quick and he liked it. There was a an unbeaten horse in the race on home soil and C&D winner.  Guess what ground he had been winning on ?
By:
Cider
When: 01 Oct 23 16:52
We'll only see that tested if he runs on softish again. Today was run on unseasonably quick going.

Funnily enough I saw Hannon interviewed before the race and he said 'on the day, we blamed it on the going'. Which is an odd way of phrasing it.

Anyhow, let's see how the career goes, today was inclusive. If it comes up soft for the SJP for example, let's see if he is pulled out of the race.
By:
howard
When: 01 Oct 23 16:54
by the way unless you or anyone else posts for starters 3 months p&l  we don't really knowWink
By:
impossible123
When: 01 Oct 23 16:55
He got stuck in the mud last time and drifted like a barge. He atoned big time today.
By:
Cider
When: 01 Oct 23 16:56
Plenty of posters on here know I'm a long term winner. Willie waving not required Laugh
By:
howard
When: 01 Oct 23 16:57
So if he never runs on soft again you were correct. Nice one.
By:
Cider
When: 01 Oct 23 17:00
I've not done horse racing 'professionally' for many years tho. I used to, until I found something that I was much better at, and concentrated the serious stuff in that area. I still like to profit on hr obviously, but mostly it's recreational on the horses, I love the sport and winner finding.
By:
impossible123
When: 01 Oct 23 17:00
He'll go for the 2000G. However, he'll not run if the ground is soft or worse, according to trainer.
By:
Cider
When: 01 Oct 23 17:03
As I've indicated, they put Arc weekend in his plans, so I feel like that suggests I'm right, but does not prove it. I don't know any serious trainer who determines that they need to avoid soft will a stallion prospect, and then plans the next run at Longchamp in October.
By:
Cider
When: 01 Oct 23 17:04
It's not like you just turn up in France on the day. They decided to run a long time before it looked like it could turn up unseasonably quick.
By:
howard
When: 01 Oct 23 17:14
"They decided to run..."    They didn't DECIDE TO RUN  they just kept him in the race. Sometimes it's a bit warmer and dry in Paris than England. Don't tell me what it's normally like. It was very quick when Golden Horn won. ( after getting beat on slower ground at York btw )
By:
Cider
When: 01 Oct 23 17:22
I'm talking about when they declared. They did not know at that point it would be fast. Transport has to be booked, staff, travel, connections informed. If you want to be pedantic, they must have committed to run by the start of the week I would have thought.
By:
impossible123
When: 01 Oct 23 18:05
I think info from weather and locals. Mr Gosden stated yesterday ground was Good; tomorrow ie today would be Good to Firm.
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