Forums
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
sparrow
04 Sep 23 18:38
Joined:
Date Joined: 20 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 55,473 | Blogger: sparrow's blog
Shocked
431.934895951                £93.17    £40,151.32
440            £30.01       
450            £30.18       
460            £12.05       
470            £30.29       
480            £23.43       
490            £20.29       
500            £58.08       
510            £17.20       
520            £15.40       
530            £20.40       
540            £9.59       
550            £19.20       
560            £3.45       
570            £0.25       
580            £0.06       
610            £0.01       
660            £0.32       
680            £0.04       
690            £16.89       
700            £2.32       
750            £0.06       
780            £0.04       
790            £0.96       
800            £0.08       
810        £0.05
Pause Switch to Standard View 430/1 winner wins as it should
Show More
Loading...
Report hulk23 September 4, 2023 6:39 PM BST
marquands had a shocker on that Rhubarb.

tracked that, capable of much better.
Report sparrow September 4, 2023 6:40 PM BST
Time Patrol but stable money was supposed to be on the other horse in the yard.
Report Gaze733 September 4, 2023 6:40 PM BST
You know what's sad? My grail said I should back it at BSP 11-50, if the megamug market hadn't laid it I woulda backed it at 50.
Report Hayden September 4, 2023 6:42 PM BST
My usual reply sparrow

Bottom weight and handicap debut
Report Gaze733 September 4, 2023 6:42 PM BST
at BSP 100-500 the grail had just 1 winner in 416 runners, now two.
Report wroughtironronn September 4, 2023 6:43 PM BST
Missed the race as I was cooking our tea - bit of a shock

18:30 Windsor
Time Patrol - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:319699334519 | Placed: 04-Sep-23 17:57:33    Back    180.00    1.00    --    --
179.00
Won
Report hulk23 September 4, 2023 6:44 PM BST
1 winner in 416 runners

is that technically a grail ??
Report Gaze733 September 4, 2023 7:57 PM BST
6495 runs, 524 wins, 8% SR, 80% ROI at BSP 11-50. But at BSP 100-500 it was only profitable in the place market so I ignored it but I guess a winner was due.
Report Rico-Dangleflaps September 4, 2023 8:07 PM BST
6495 runs, 524 wins

thats 1 winner ever 13 races?
Report sageform September 4, 2023 8:11 PM BST
How much of the high price was due to a woman riding? There sere 22 flat races today and 6 were won by women riders but most of them start at longer odds that their form justifies.
Report Gaze733 September 4, 2023 9:20 PM BST
Yes rico, I see math is your strong suit.
Report TOP3MAN September 4, 2023 9:25 PM BST
come on.........its payday for the Tony Carroll handicap debutant system after running under a loose rain with no homework over the incorrect trip and laid for the fees.

the analysis of previous runs....outpaced. so drop it back in trip Cry
Report TOP3MAN September 4, 2023 9:26 PM BST
Rico-Dangleflaps • September 4, 2023 8:07 PM BST
6495 runs, 524 wins

thats 1 winner ever 13 races?

thats correct and the **** didnt back one at 430-1 - he has all the data and no idea
Report TOP3MAN September 4, 2023 9:28 PM BST

Sep 4, 2023 -- 6:39PM, hulk23 wrote:


marquands had a shocker on that Rhubarb.tracked that, capable of much better.


rhubarb is a mincemeat of a horse.....a bookie horse

Report Rico-Dangleflaps September 4, 2023 9:29 PM BST
wel sed topman.
Report TOP3MAN September 4, 2023 9:46 PM BST
Also lets not forget dear Tony had 15 runners across the country today, in which he put dear old Jason Watson up on the two shortest priced runners and he has expertly as he does for David O'Meara managed to get his runners well out the frame!!!!

What a fantastic cash cow dear Jason is
Report Gaze733 September 5, 2023 10:39 AM BST
What part of 1 winner in 416 runners did you miss? Do you back every rag with a 0.24% chance to win? Go ahead and back every handicap debutant that drifts above 200, you might get a winner in a year or two.
Report Rico-Dangleflaps September 5, 2023 2:41 PM BST
Gaze733 04 Sep 23 19:57 
6495 runs, 524 wins
Report sageform September 5, 2023 2:52 PM BST
Massive difference between a 100/1 shot with plenty of form and one with hardly any.
Report Gaze733 September 5, 2023 3:11 PM BST
HC debutants never need any form
Report Hayden September 5, 2023 3:12 PM BST
When a horse has had 3 runs in a non handicap punters should class it as a debutant as the " form " is irrelevant.

When a horse is a handicap debutant you should think of it having its first run in a new career.

As we all know handicaps are formed so that theoretically the field dead heats , so laying handicap outsiders is fraught with danger.

If you don't believe me ask connections.


Why do you think Rico never uses handicaps when laying his longshots   Happy
Report Gaze733 September 5, 2023 4:07 PM BST
"As we all know handicaps are formed so that theoretically the field dead heats"

Then why does every other race have a 2/1 fav? If the handicappers did their job correctly, a 10 runner field would have each horse at 9/1 no?
Report Gaze733 September 5, 2023 4:08 PM BST
I'd rather back Frankel carrying a bag of bricks than a 45 rated horse.
Report sageform September 5, 2023 4:41 PM BST
Gaze you are right in theory but a handicapper has to weigh recent form and old form. If a horse that starts the season on 100 and finishes nearly last 3 times in handicaps beaten (say) 15 lengths over a mile, how would you rate it? If taken literally it should be 70 but is more likely to be 90. So it will start at 33/1.
Report 11kv September 5, 2023 6:25 PM BST
Well done ironronn
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com