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I’ve had a few comments from some of my followers on Twitter recently in relation to what has been a very poor couple of months in terms of results for this column. It’s very difficult to respond in any depth given the character limits on that platform, but I didn’t want to ignore or not acknowledge them, so I thought I’d make a few comments on here.
It’s been a fairly topsy-turvy year so far for the column… a steady start to the year with three small winning months, then a hot period in April and the first half of May when there were lots of winners, followed by a dismal run since then, and the column’s tally for the year at the time of writing is +83 points to advised stakes/prices, which is some way below where it was at the end of May.
Maybe for [[for you hugh but no-one bar fraudy can get on at your advised prices[:crazy:]]]]
So in recent weeks, I’ve had quite a few comments along the lines of “what’s going on/where has it all gone wrong”. It’s certainly true that, frankly, my results have been very poor lately, although the problem in terms of addressing that issue is that I’ve been doing this job for 15 years and have had similar comments at some point in every single one of those years, despite the column’s overall record.
There are various reasons why this happens. Some of it - as I have often commented in the past - is just randomness and variance kicking in. Many people struggle with the concept that long-term winning punters don’t win all the time, whereas the truth is that frequently it’s a few big winning bursts each year that are responsible for the profits. It’s difficult sometimes getting people to recognise this fact.
It’s enlightening, however, looking at the year-by-year records of Phil Bull (as published in Howard Wright’s biography) - for instance, in the 1960s he recorded overall winnings of around £29,000 (the equivalent of around £300,000), but lost overall in five of those 10 years, and he’s widely regarded as being one of the best and most successful punters of his era.
That’s partly why we publish a month-by-month (and selection-by-selection) record of how the column has fared. Look back at the records for the last 15 years and you’ll see that in most years I have endured some especially barren spells.
However… whilst I’d say there was a strong degree of variance/randomness at play both in my good spell in April/early May and my poor spell subsequently, there’s a bit more to it than that as well.
The nature of betting markets changes frequently, and what works at one stage may not do so for a variety of reasons at a later stage. I’ve had to tinker with my approach at numerous stages over the 15-year duration of this column as the market gradually adjusts to different angles.
That said, I haven’t done much differently over the last couple of months compared with what I was doing earlier this year, but in my view the overnight markets happen to have been especially efficient in recent weeks. Why that’s the case I’m not sure - there are certainly more tipsters on overnights nowadays, both for the main media websites and private enterprises, tipping into what are very soft markets in the first few hours after the bookmakers publish their first tentative stab at opening prices.
As I’ve said many times, a lot of the overnight prices that are offered are a long way out of line, but we are also, in my view, seeing bigger precautionary cuts than was previously the case to anything the bookmakers see attracting support at that early stage.
I’m not complaining about that - I’m the last person in a position to complain about prices being cut because of tipsters - but as people have been asking me why I haven’t had as much success lately as earlier in the year, that’s the main reason; I’ve frequently had a shortlist of three or four horses that have all more than halved in price overnight. Whether that’s just a temporary thing (it wasn’t happening nearly so much earlier this year), I’m not sure.
I’m not interested in moving into the overnight tipping game (other than for the stronger markets at Royal Ascot and Cheltenham), the markets are soft enough at 9am even after they have had 18 hours or so to settle, and it’s hard enough for followers of a relatively successful tipster with a reasonable following to get on even on the day of the race.
There’s also obviously been a lot of questionable judgment on my part too - earlier this year, if I was deciding between a couple of horses in the morning, the one I went with seemed to keep winning and the one I left alone seemed to run poorly, whereas the opposite has been true in recent weeks.
If I was only punting for myself, I wouldn’t be in the slightest bit concerned about my recent run, but it’s an altogether different matter when you’re giving selections as a tipster, not only because you feel bad when people are losing money based on your advice but also because they only see the outcome of your selections, rather than having a wider view of the horses that made your shortlist.
Adjusting to changes in the betting market isn’t easy, and to be honest I wouldn’t have been too disheartened if I’d had one or two losing years as a tipster along the way - I’d say it’s very likely to happen at some stage, especially as I think the betting climate is unquestionably harder for day-of-race tipsters these days.
However, I’d also point out - as the FAQ has stated all along - that part of the aim of the column is to provide an interesting read and provide an insight into the type of reasoning that can help with form study, and I’d like to think the column still stands up reasonably well in that respect even during a bad spell.
It’s been a fairly topsy-turvy year so far for the column… a steady start to the year with three small winning months, then a hot period in April and the first half of May when there were lots of winners, followed by a dismal run since then, and the column’s tally for the year at the time of writing is +83 points to advised stakes/prices, which is some way below where it was at the end of May.
Maybe for [[for you hugh but no-one bar fraudy can get on at your advised prices[:crazy:]]]]
So in recent weeks, I’ve had quite a few comments along the lines of “what’s going on/where has it all gone wrong”. It’s certainly true that, frankly, my results have been very poor lately, although the problem in terms of addressing that issue is that I’ve been doing this job for 15 years and have had similar comments at some point in every single one of those years, despite the column’s overall record.
There are various reasons why this happens. Some of it - as I have often commented in the past - is just randomness and variance kicking in. Many people struggle with the concept that long-term winning punters don’t win all the time, whereas the truth is that frequently it’s a few big winning bursts each year that are responsible for the profits. It’s difficult sometimes getting people to recognise this fact.
It’s enlightening, however, looking at the year-by-year records of Phil Bull (as published in Howard Wright’s biography) - for instance, in the 1960s he recorded overall winnings of around £29,000 (the equivalent of around £300,000), but lost overall in five of those 10 years, and he’s widely regarded as being one of the best and most successful punters of his era.
That’s partly why we publish a month-by-month (and selection-by-selection) record of how the column has fared. Look back at the records for the last 15 years and you’ll see that in most years I have endured some especially barren spells.
However… whilst I’d say there was a strong degree of variance/randomness at play both in my good spell in April/early May and my poor spell subsequently, there’s a bit more to it than that as well.
The nature of betting markets changes frequently, and what works at one stage may not do so for a variety of reasons at a later stage. I’ve had to tinker with my approach at numerous stages over the 15-year duration of this column as the market gradually adjusts to different angles.
That said, I haven’t done much differently over the last couple of months compared with what I was doing earlier this year, but in my view the overnight markets happen to have been especially efficient in recent weeks. Why that’s the case I’m not sure - there are certainly more tipsters on overnights nowadays, both for the main media websites and private enterprises, tipping into what are very soft markets in the first few hours after the bookmakers publish their first tentative stab at opening prices.
As I’ve said many times, a lot of the overnight prices that are offered are a long way out of line, but we are also, in my view, seeing bigger precautionary cuts than was previously the case to anything the bookmakers see attracting support at that early stage.
I’m not complaining about that - I’m the last person in a position to complain about prices being cut because of tipsters - but as people have been asking me why I haven’t had as much success lately as earlier in the year, that’s the main reason; I’ve frequently had a shortlist of three or four horses that have all more than halved in price overnight. Whether that’s just a temporary thing (it wasn’t happening nearly so much earlier this year), I’m not sure.
I’m not interested in moving into the overnight tipping game (other than for the stronger markets at Royal Ascot and Cheltenham), the markets are soft enough at 9am even after they have had 18 hours or so to settle, and it’s hard enough for followers of a relatively successful tipster with a reasonable following to get on even on the day of the race.
There’s also obviously been a lot of questionable judgment on my part too - earlier this year, if I was deciding between a couple of horses in the morning, the one I went with seemed to keep winning and the one I left alone seemed to run poorly, whereas the opposite has been true in recent weeks.
If I was only punting for myself, I wouldn’t be in the slightest bit concerned about my recent run, but it’s an altogether different matter when you’re giving selections as a tipster, not only because you feel bad when people are losing money based on your advice but also because they only see the outcome of your selections, rather than having a wider view of the horses that made your shortlist.
Adjusting to changes in the betting market isn’t easy, and to be honest I wouldn’t have been too disheartened if I’d had one or two losing years as a tipster along the way - I’d say it’s very likely to happen at some stage, especially as I think the betting climate is unquestionably harder for day-of-race tipsters these days.
However, I’d also point out - as the FAQ has stated all along - that part of the aim of the column is to provide an interesting read and provide an insight into the type of reasoning that can help with form study, and I’d like to think the column still stands up reasonably well in that respect even during a bad spell.
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Fraudy just been on to stick up for him spouting more of his nonsense claims
In fraudy we trust
[ This image is no longer available. ]
In fraudy we trust[ This image is no longer available. ]
Why would anyone go to this length ffs……the game is like playing the old fashioned yo-yo up and down and up and down and up and down ffs…..a bad month big deal it happens get over it or put it right…..
zzzzzzz
zzzzzzz
I’ll give him 2-3 months and it will be good night from him……he’s under big pressure imv….tbf…
Aye
Ffs is common in this game,punt,riding,trainers and owners….
Ffs is common in this game,punt,riding,trainers and owners….
Quixall,the only tipsters worse than you reside in the "Premiership"!! NAP
I know
I tried to look at Hugh on twitter but he blocked me…..
I tried to look at Hugh on twitter but he blocked me…..
That 8/13 poke he managed to beat tipped him over.
It looked like a flippant middle finger to the 42 losers he picked in June.
It looked like a flippant middle finger to the 42 losers he picked in June.
In all seriousness all the bollox about overnight markets etc is a red herring,he quotes Phil Bull,did he have the array of overnight odds of bookies who will not lay a decent bet?
The overnight market is no more than the books feelers testing the air and the muppets like Hugh expect people to believe they are actual "markets" but still use the odds when convenient if it boosts their figures.
All he had to say was "I found less winners during my dry spell",that is all because that it all that counts!!
The overnight market is no more than the books feelers testing the air and the muppets like Hugh expect people to believe they are actual "markets" but still use the odds when convenient if it boosts their figures.
All he had to say was "I found less winners during my dry spell",that is all because that it all that counts!!
is this a cry for 'don't sack me', even though I'm well down at SP every year as the prices quoted are unobtainable for 90% of my disciples?
It’s people like Hugh Taylor that have killed the game for a lot of punters. All this nonsense about overnight prices, when it’s clear he’s given it to the market the night, before he advises the horses in the morning.
If any form reader could get on the night before, we would all be in clover.
I’ve had countless bets I’m unable to bet because a tipster like Taylor has killed the odds the night before and it hurts when you’ve spent 3 hours on a race to find a bet, to find it’s collapsed in price in 15 minutes and you can’t get on. It got to the point when I just used to study amateur rider races just to get an edge, as no one was interested in them races.
It’s a tough game but not tough for people like Taylor who will always be accommodated at the best odds
If any form reader could get on the night before, we would all be in clover.
I’ve had countless bets I’m unable to bet because a tipster like Taylor has killed the odds the night before and it hurts when you’ve spent 3 hours on a race to find a bet, to find it’s collapsed in price in 15 minutes and you can’t get on. It got to the point when I just used to study amateur rider races just to get an edge, as no one was interested in them races.
It’s a tough game but not tough for people like Taylor who will always be accommodated at the best odds
Agree with Harry C, all these tipsters putting horses up at big odds for the weekend like Calvin, Delargy, Carter etc as soon as the books put a market up are killing it for everybody else.
Complete bollox to blame tipsters for killing anything,if you were so sure to start with the double or treble your stake to account for shrinkage?
Hugh blocks anyone who posts anything negative on his fred. It's obvious he doesn't take criticism very well even though he is quite ready to put up his past exploits as a shield.
Sir Paul has popped in
Sir Tom has done no better
Sir Paul has popped in
Sir Tom has done no better
Not too many years ago when Seagull ran away from a £50K challenge after the RP claimed he tipped a winner on the front page and forgot to mention the multiple Rule 4s from non runners!!
I only asked if he punted them imo
Chapman blocked me regarding whip/pro cush
Luke Morris because I questioned his style
Hollie because of the Leger ride…..ffs
Chapman blocked me regarding whip/pro cush
Luke Morris because I questioned his style
Hollie because of the Leger ride…..ffs
No different here Quixall,StewB and Ikeaman because they hate awkward questions about their dubious threads e.g Ikeaman reacts with a knee jerk when reading supposedly blocked posts that have bait in them!!
e.g Ikeaman words to the effect "My tipping must be due to the European heatwave"..........then "In Spain,receptionist tells me it has been hot recently but only 30c today"!! Immediately after me stating how brutal the heat has been!!!
ROFL btw!!
e.g Ikeaman words to the effect "My tipping must be due to the European heatwave"..........then "In Spain,receptionist tells me it has been hot recently but only 30c today"!! Immediately after me stating how brutal the heat has been!!!
ROFL btw!!
You stood up for Happysandwich Quixall which was admirable but who was conned worse,you or The management?
You stood up for Happysandwich Quixall which was admirable but who was conned worse,you or The management?
CagliariG 25 Jul 23 19:42 Joined: 16 Jul 22 | Topic/replies: 5,363 | Blogger: CagliariG's blog
Complete bollox to blame tipsters for killing anything,if you were so sure to start with the double or treble your stake to account for shrinkage?
Walofs
Complete bollox to blame tipsters for killing anything,if you were so sure to start with the double or treble your stake to account for shrinkage?
Walofs
TM was sore on him it was dreadful reading….I myself couldn’t give 2 monkeys for the ball sack….a cruel person…tbf…
You miss the point/fact Quixall,Ikeaman and Halfapicnic are ONE and the same!!!
Sir Hugh's tip in the 8.50 = 20 with the books -45/1 on 'ere
To be fair that was frank and very honest response top man. I think he is the very best to open up shows a remarkable amount of class and judgement. Just my thoughts very few would or could have done that so well.
TBF to Hugh most tipsters would have ignored it and tried to pretend it hadn't happened (the bad run).
What happens after a bad run ……. Different gravy those Twitter geeks who want quick and massive returns for a 3 quid outlay, the phrase I’ve seen that sums up most Twitter tippers is the scatter gun approach to tipping and they are a boom boom lot and most will be Novices who ain’t got a clue, Hugh part of the old school who’s forgotten more than the Twitter clowns know
ooohh!
Sir Hugh's Mcloven short of lovin' gettin chinned by the jolly at lingfield
Sir Tom tipping summat up at Yarmouth tomorra - his boat race on RP frontpage tempting subscribers in.
He musta been ecstatic guessing what the ground will be like tomorrow when stabbing out out a selection to keep his paymaster content.
Sir Hugh's Mcloven short of lovin' gettin chinned by the jolly at lingfield
Sir Tom tipping summat up at Yarmouth tomorra - his boat race on RP frontpage tempting subscribers in.
He musta been ecstatic guessing what the ground will be like tomorrow when stabbing out out a selection to keep his paymaster content.
leif - Where did you Cut & Paste - this Hugh Taylor's original post/article from?
It's within https://www.attheraces.com/tips/atr-tipsters/hugh-taylor (at the moment anyway)
I wonder how AI detection systems will ruin value seeking tipsters?
Surely can’t be that hard for it to analyse and pick out likely targets and kill the price so there’s no risk for the firm.
Maybe even set a few traps along the way too.
Traders do an okay enough job but AI will completely wreck it.
Surely can’t be that hard for it to analyse and pick out likely targets and kill the price so there’s no risk for the firm.
Maybe even set a few traps along the way too.
Traders do an okay enough job but AI will completely wreck it.
Bull couldn't watch ( and record ) 95% + of the races. And the tv ones he could watch were in b&w !
Farh to Say breaks the run. Maybe winners will start following.
Surely nobody backs any tipsters selection simply because they've tipped it.
Most tipsters selecting bigger priced runners give a set of reasons why they think the horse might outrun its price, but it's not unusual to judge they're missing something. A particular tipster may judge that a horse has a decent chance due to a decent time put up in a race over the same C/D two or three starts back, but I may judge that the horse's current rating doesn't justify such optimism, never having won off the mark it's racing off on that day. If the price on that horse shortens considerably having been tipped by a high-profile tipster, that can only be good for me if there's another runner in the race I strongly fancy, since it's price is likely - though not certain - to be bigger than I judge it ought to. And if I don't have any particular fancy, I simply pass the race and move on to another.
Or, if you really do think the tipster's reasoning is wide of the mark, why not lay it once it's shortened up ?
Most tipsters selecting bigger priced runners give a set of reasons why they think the horse might outrun its price, but it's not unusual to judge they're missing something. A particular tipster may judge that a horse has a decent chance due to a decent time put up in a race over the same C/D two or three starts back, but I may judge that the horse's current rating doesn't justify such optimism, never having won off the mark it's racing off on that day. If the price on that horse shortens considerably having been tipped by a high-profile tipster, that can only be good for me if there's another runner in the race I strongly fancy, since it's price is likely - though not certain - to be bigger than I judge it ought to. And if I don't have any particular fancy, I simply pass the race and move on to another.
Or, if you really do think the tipster's reasoning is wide of the mark, why not lay it once it's shortened up ?
Hugh's long been a brilliant tipster but the prices he uses for the profit and loss are pure fantasy for 99.9% of readers.
@Bluebook
The 'optimism' is overated by folk who will bet on these 'high profile tipsterers' even if it means taking way shorter odds.
For me, the issue with these high profile guys is the pressure on them to churn out tips almost daily, on meetings they'd prefer to swerve but required to please their paymasters. [thought HT took the pish by selecting an 8/13 poke that got beat]
Been a few painful festivals where you can see them dragged from one preview to another, turning up on shows almost distraught having seen their tips getting mullered. Sir Tom you'd think has the right idea by refusing to leave his sofa unless he's off to watch his son play basketball. when was the last time you saw him sat in a studio?
Ironically, following Sir Hugh's written apology for his dire performance lately Sir Tom appears on the Intheknow show with his hair in place [normally looks like worzel gummidge] an wearing his best Calvin klein cardigan. seemed rather upbeat and optimistic
Racing is dire tomorrow - there'll still be tips for the mugs
The 'optimism' is overated by folk who will bet on these 'high profile tipsterers' even if it means taking way shorter odds.
For me, the issue with these high profile guys is the pressure on them to churn out tips almost daily, on meetings they'd prefer to swerve but required to please their paymasters. [thought HT took the pish by selecting an 8/13 poke that got beat]
Been a few painful festivals where you can see them dragged from one preview to another, turning up on shows almost distraught having seen their tips getting mullered. Sir Tom you'd think has the right idea by refusing to leave his sofa unless he's off to watch his son play basketball. when was the last time you saw him sat in a studio?
Ironically, following Sir Hugh's written apology for his dire performance lately Sir Tom appears on the Intheknow show with his hair in place [normally looks like worzel gummidge] an wearing his best Calvin klein cardigan. seemed rather upbeat and optimistic
Racing is dire tomorrow - there'll still be tips for the mugs
If anybody thinks it's easy, have a go in the tipping comp' on here !
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