There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
17 Jul 23
15:42
Joined:
Date Joined:
22 Apr 04
6.50 Disclaimer usually avoid these sort of short priced horses like the Plague.
Fernao a 4yo colt who didn't make his debut until April this year looks superbly bred to be a Miler, by Frankel out of a Machiavellian mare who has produced 6 winners from her 7 offspring, most notably Al Wukair, 3rd in Churchills 2000gns before winning the G1 Jacques Le Marois rated 119, most of the other half siblings were rated 80/99 and his full sister ran in a G3 at Chantilly yesterday 6th of 7 but was impeded.
As you say breeding isn't everything and this horse must i presume have had some issues to prevent it from running as a 2/3 yo. Backed into 4/1 for his debut, was slowly away in last and looked rather green but shot up the straight to get 3rd, again looked green nto when sent off Evens fav over tonights C/D, ran quite wide and had to be rousted along to get 2nd to a Joseph O'Brien horse by over 4 lengths. LTO in what looked an easier race again raced lazily and Billie Lee gave him a few cracks to concentrate before he pulled right away to win by 8 lengths.
Rather short for me to back, so i'll just watch and hope he runs really well.
Could be a lot more to come from this horse and runs in a h'cap tonight from 89 against good experienced h'cappers, i'm noticing he hasn't been gelded so with his breeding could become a stallion for his owners Ballylinch Stud, think he'll need more than a maiden win to reach that objective, so will need to win or run very well in this 0-90 h'cap before possibly stepping up to listed level in future.
Fernao a 4yo colt who didn't make his debut until April this year looks superbly bred to be a Miler, by Frankel out of a Machiavellian mare who has produced 6 winners from her 7 offspring, most notably Al Wukair, 3rd in Churchills 2000gns before winning the G1 Jacques Le Marois rated 119, most of the other half siblings were rated 80/99 and his full sister ran in a G3 at Chantilly yesterday 6th of 7 but was impeded.
As you say breeding isn't everything and this horse must i presume have had some issues to prevent it from running as a 2/3 yo. Backed into 4/1 for his debut, was slowly away in last and looked rather green but shot up the straight to get 3rd, again looked green nto when sent off Evens fav over tonights C/D, ran quite wide and had to be rousted along to get 2nd to a Joseph O'Brien horse by over 4 lengths. LTO in what looked an easier race again raced lazily and Billie Lee gave him a few cracks to concentrate before he pulled right away to win by 8 lengths.
Rather short for me to back, so i'll just watch and hope he runs really well.
Could be a lot more to come from this horse and runs in a h'cap tonight from 89 against good experienced h'cappers, i'm noticing he hasn't been gelded so with his breeding could become a stallion for his owners Ballylinch Stud, think he'll need more than a maiden win to reach that objective, so will need to win or run very well in this 0-90 h'cap before possibly stepping up to listed level in future.
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 45
|
By:
Lol WTF
|
|
By:
Do you have trouble with actual words, Formoftheface, everything i've read that you post usually ends up with FFs!
|
|
By:
No,a decent read but strange no play…I only do ffs when it’s a head scratcher
|
|
By:
As i said at the start, i tend to avoid these supposed good things like the plague especially at 9/4 ish.
Just thought was an interesting horse, i don't always have to bet and usually back horses at an EW price. |
|
By:
cliches should be avoided like the plague
|
|
By:
So should drunks imo.
|
|
By:
 |
|
By:
Will watch with interest, stewarts.
|
|
By:
I also like this one, not much doubt he is better than the mark. Slight concern would be that he could still be a bit green up against these experienced handicappers, and it's not an easy track to make up ground from a long way back.
|
|
By:
I certainly wouldn’t be laying it….
|
|
By:
Hope it’s not a fancied but didn’t play……used to hear it on course…..small play decent play don’t let it run loose…..
|
|
By:
Very disappointing. Needs a longer trip but not much to take out of that.
|
|
By:
Yep wise not to play …..hound Hexham bound
|
|
By:
Dropped back to last i think, that could kn@cker up his stud career, that's why i don't back these short priced good things.
You do wonder why he didn't run till this year, shame. |
|
By:
so all that and no bet?
|
|
By:
Only thing to note I suppose, it did seem that he was winging it to post rather rapid. Don't know if he was keen before the camera shot. Then he was gunned out of the stalls.
|
|
By:
Another quite interesting horse at Killarny tonight in the 1st race a claimer, this won't interest swiftynifty and probably quite a few others as i may not have a bet on this horse either.
Roderick, is the horse that interests me in this race, stablemate of the likely favourite Is That Love for James Mcauley. This horse started life with Richard Fahey as a 2 yo and won 2 of his 1st 3 races, before being sold to race in France, was gelded some time before its 1st race in France some 20 months later, running around small provincial courses as well as on AW at Deauville, didn't show a huge amount for that trainer and was switched to Mlle Crombez where appears to have had an upturn in form. Horse was very consistant for the Mlle running in decent 22k h'caps around 1m, best form on G/S ground, form figures of 22174 before a 7th in a listed race, these weren't around the provinces but at Chantilly, Longchamp and St Cloud. Changed hands after being off for over a year and now owned by the trainer, had a couple of runs at Dundalk and typical Mcauley ran him over 6fs 1st time up behind useful sprinter Harrys Bar and San Andreas both rated over 100, didn't run too badly for a blow out after 15 months off. Nto at Dundalk completely blew the start, rearing in the stalls but made good ground to get on back of pack 2fs out, jockey then let him coast home. He's in to be claimed for 10k so presumably trainer doesn't want to lose him cheaply, another 4 1/2 months off and he's highest rated in a field where only probably 3 others have a chance, how will he get on, i don't know, will he just be given another blow out or over his best distance on his preferred going and presuming he's a lot fitter now, could well win. Nothing in the markets as yet so probably best to wait and see what happens with the betting, his runners are running very well at the moment, 3 winners, 4 2nds, 3 3rds from last 15 runners. Would be nice if The Anorak was to see this and comment on his french rating but don't expect he'll notice. |
|
By:
Not a bean for him all day and nothing waiting to back it, think we know where this is heading.
|
|
By:
wd
|
|
By:
Mcauley, never know what he's up to, assumed wasn't off but gets up on the line, as i said interesting runner!
|
|
By:
Very interesting, well spotted.
|
|
By:
Very interesting, well spotted.
|
|
By:
so all that and no bet?! hope you held your nerve stew, cracking analysis and not shafted by trainer shenanigans.
|
|
By:
stewarts is right about McAuley, though -
Becoming the Ken Payne of Ireland. |
|
By:
I backed it early this afternoon Swifty with 356 expecting to be about 7/1 3rd fav, got paid 20/1, also with skybet this am where i went for the 4 places took 13/2 and paid out at 13/2!
 Couldn't believe it went over 30 on here, so assumed i'd done my money, funny old game. |
|
By:
Oh good - from your - "very disappointing - not been a bean for him all day "- post ...
OI presumed that you had not had a bet. You missed the 30.0 on here ... But, at least you did not let it run loose - elsewhere.  |
|
By:
Weeldone
|
|
By:
good shout
|
|
By:
WD
|
|
By:
He's in to be claimed for 10k so presumably trainer doesn't want to lose him cheaply, another 4 1/2 months off and he's highest rated in a field where only probably 3 others have a chance, how will he get on, i don't know, will he just be given another blow out or over his best distance on his preferred going and presuming he's a lot fitter now, could well win.
Wd Stewarty. This part of your analysis wasn’t correct however. He had put him in cheap at 10k so did want rid of him cheap |
|
By:
Top work, Stewy, VWD
|
|
By:
How much did you pay for this analysis and who is the author please.
|
|
By:
What was amazing about this race was it looks as if they landed a good old fashioned SP job, commentator mentioned after race that there were huge cheers for the winner when he got the photo result. There was nothing in the back boxes all day as it drifted from early 7 out to 34, and same with bookies where drifted from 11/2 to 20/1. Took a lot of willpower from connections to not jump in as price drifted until just before the off when got backed at 34-27 on here.
Tote paid £9.80 which was about right imo. Honcho, don't know what you're alluding to, as I Don't look at Tipsters never mind pay for them. |
|
By:
Reckon you're near the mark there stew , i've been part of SP knockout jobs and they happen far more frequently that people would imagine , not to be confused with the big priced one that's backed down then drifts back to near it's original price as that's sometimes down to a person with a big mouth leading to a plan reversal.
Great spot mate , keep it going |
|
By:
You will be 'namechecking' John Pegley, next - Hayden
|
|
By:
Was Terry Myers in my day onlooker.
|
|
By:
Hi stew,just put up a thread re-Iqbal Khan,anything you can advise on?
|
|
By:
No Glen, only noticed his name amongst the riders, not heard of him to be honest.
I did reply to you about your previous question re- irish apprentices on an onlooker thread, but don't think you came back to it. |
|
By:
Thanks stew,you answered the question for me stew and I had nothing to add.
|