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I just read an article that says you should adjust your stakes as often as possible, e.g. if your bank grows by 10%, increase stakes by 10%.
But let's consider the common situation. Your average SR is 25%, but this week it's 38%. Your bank grows by 50%. Now you increase the stakes by 50% and surprise surprise, your SR is 18% the next week and you drop down to your original bank or worse, then lose more due to tilt. According to the article, expecting the hot run to end is gambler's fallacy. But not expecting the hot run to end is a degenerate gambler's fallacy.
But let's consider the common situation. Your average SR is 25%, but this week it's 38%. Your bank grows by 50%. Now you increase the stakes by 50% and surprise surprise, your SR is 18% the next week and you drop down to your original bank or worse, then lose more due to tilt. According to the article, expecting the hot run to end is gambler's fallacy. But not expecting the hot run to end is a degenerate gambler's fallacy.
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Another example: Toss a coin 30 times - 20 heads 10 tails, bank increases 50%. Increase the stake by 50% then get 12 heads 18 tails. Even with an edge you lose.
What you mean is 'don't expect good runs to continue' and don't increase staking due to a good run.
Both depend on other factors - exactly how long and consistent is the 'good run', and how much you increase your staking.
Staking can always be increased if you have sufficient bank.
Both depend on other factors - exactly how long and consistent is the 'good run', and how much you increase your staking.
Staking can always be increased if you have sufficient bank.
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