How many races can u safely analyse

Also is there just a criteria in what races u will play

Played 1250 markets last 3 months 90% win market at a guess.

Laying?

99% trading

just concentrate on horses I’ve watched and made notes on.

This is a good question - it's possible to bet in way too many races very easily, as they are just available.

How many races/selections suits you will be personal - to your analysis approach, other life commitments, laying vs backing, trading etc.

But fatigue in analysis is certainly a real thing - looking for selections intensively takes it's toll during a day, and overtrading is a real factor IMO.

I like to ramp it up in numbers when I feel I have the resources, but restrict when I feel I don't. I like to keep open minded though, and not just follow specific horses - because it's easy to neglect understanding of the opposing horses that way.

A further point to add would be how long you believe is needed to make any selection - there's no such thing as certainty. So at what point do you stop analysis and say 'that's good enough'.

Yes very good question top3man

My answer would be plenty as a younger person but not so many as an older person,I find as you get older unless I’m going racing I would not spend anytime at all on a day like yesterday which was utter rubbish,certain tracks I would just avoid completely which gives you a break or more time to concentrate on those that suit me more,as a young man I did the lot.

JImnast- Very good point, age is a big factor especially has it's got harder to make it pay on here.

Good morning lady

I think it’s become harder ever since the exchanges came in certainly regarding finding horses over priced by the traditional odds compilers horses that were say priced up at 16/1 which you would consider been only a 10/1 chance are now around that price.

I think the age think is true to many probably most however I think onlooker still manages to do every race.

All of them.

Next Question.

When you find a race in which you can identify in your racing knowledge to know a bit about the horses contesting the race to a high enough level and only have to watch reply on a few to get the race covered and you know for certain that one will not be winning and say its in the first 3 in the betting (single figure odds). Would you lay that horse for a certain profit or just split the liability out on the ones in your analysis u believe will win.

So if you had a hard 8 race - the lay is 5.0. but of the remaining 7 - you believe its between 3 of them, would you back the 3 against the field for the same liability of your lay (say £100 liability) or just lay the 5.0 shot for £25 Less comms return?

Stu - I stop on the analysis when I believe I have visualized how the race is going to pan out and there is no doubt that the race wont go that way. Obviously then by 200 yards in I realise that the tactics I expected are now not in force, because one has missed the break or the jockey has taken a pull or one has gone forward for once

If you know for certain a 5.0 shot won't be winning, why wouldn't you lay it? You can still back the ones you fancy most.

I've made that mistake many times. I don't like the first 3 favs so I back the 4ťh and 5th and 6th one. The 7th one wins and I lose with my backs instead of winning by laying the top 3.

Topman - yes, I find as I have more years lodged in racing, the less I feel 'certain' as such - things so often fail to pan out the way you planned, so your planning has to be more flexible, or allow margins for error more.

Jul 5, 2023 -- 10:53AM, Gaze733 wrote:

If you know for certain a 5.0 shot won't be winning, why wouldn't you lay it? You can still back the ones you fancy most.I've made that mistake many times. I don't like the first 3 favs so I back the 4ťh and 5th and 6th one. The 7th one wins and I lose with my backs instead of winning by laying the top 3.

but over time what would be more beneficial.

£25.00 guaranteed "yes" but when laying you're effectively backing the other 7 - yet only 1 can win a return. if you nail the ones that can win, surely the % play is higher long term in money back

Laying is very worth it if you pick good lays. It's better to risk 10 to win 2 than risk 2 and lose 2.

5/10 minutes on each race at the moment, which means you have to be super fast and super smart, ideally you would do your form the day before and pick your races you want to bet on, as for yesterday looking at the cards was not inspiring at fist sight, "learnt from the past that is not helpful to think like that", actually was some very good racing yesterday, and a multiple win was there for the taking, my working conditions are not conducive to winning a multiple bet at the moment. have to change something because i dont like betting on every dam race, and you can easily overlook a really strong bet caught in that mode, happened to me yesterday backing allday race to race, could of had just a few really strong bets instead, did manage to win 1250 on lucky fifteen, ended up only 100 profit on the day, useless after being up 550 and missing a winner i wanted to bet.

I look at flat races in 2 quite separate ways. Firstly does it look an interesting race in which a study of form/pedigree might be profitable. In my case that is mostly maidens, novice and pattern races. Secondly does the shape of a market make a speculative bet worth a try? When 90% of races are low grade, I might bet the top 2 in the market in a handicap if they look clear of the rest and the prices allow a decent return. In most other flat races, I just watch out of interest. Chasing is different as it is often possible to narrow it down to 3 possible winners by watching them jump the first 3 fences as some horses make it very clear they are not in the mood quite early. Bet or lay in running.

Small fields with a short priced favourite making the market to either lay or back something else.

Would you trade this Vince lamour in the 2.15 ladycarla.?
pinged out on debut -currently trading around 55

Leif- Traded Angel of England made a small profit.

Good thread, try not to comment myself much, a couple of well known fools around.

Enjoyed reading, what I actually was advised by a couple of shrewds were ok how long can you go studying...BUT also is it repeatable without burnout? No good if your not operating at your max, the game will screw you over

Horse Racing / 15:35 Musselburgh / 7f Hcap

Gioia Cieca    Back    312644639461    05-Jul-23 15:30        3.65    53.22        3.65    Not Settled


Horse Racing / 15:35 Musselburgh / 7f Hcap
Gioia Cieca    Lay    312644708718    05-Jul-23 15:31        K    1.81    61.00    Unmatched    Not Settled

See if this can get matched.

Never thought it would get matched mind win 55 I/R

Horse Racing / 15:45 Thirsk / 6f Hcap
Rainbow Rain    Lay    312646317574    05-Jul-23 15:48        3    41.00        3    Not Settled
    
Horse Racing / 15:45 Thirsk / 6f Hcap
Rainbow Rain    Back    312646271686    05-Jul-23 15:48        6    33.00        6    Not Settled

Basically what I do these days, once I know which horse I'm trading I have a system for stakes and odds which vary quiet alot depending on factors.

GL All.

Horse Racing / 16:05 Musselburgh / 1m1f Hcap
Shine On Brendan    Lay    312647589486    05-Jul-23 16:02        3    41.00        3    Not Settled
    
Horse Racing / 16:05 Musselburgh / 1m1f Hcap
Shine On Brendan    Back    312647556319    05-Jul-23 16:02        4.7    34.35        4.7    Not Settled

This one, knew I should get trade unless something like falling out the stalls happened, if it goes on to win a bonus. Again low stake just because of trainer not one of my favs.

4-15 no bet, tend to leave short price favs with a good chance alone, unless I think they a good thing and will go in high.

good thread and look at the contributions from people, absolutely useless, how can people improve their lot if no one wants to share any things they have learned from a lifetime of punting, instead people posting stupid bets on here, would of been interesting to know more about peoples different approaches, if i can share one thing, dont rule out any races because you dont like betting on those type of races, every type of race has something extra that you can learn from to improve your overall knowledge, even if it means you refrain from betting in those races untill you have arrived at a better way of solving those type of races, will always be certain limitations to certain races like maidens. the best races are handicaps and always will be.

maidens and novices are great, especially smaller fields. It's basically fav vs the second fav and the rest can be ignored.

We all have our own opinions as to what we prefer.

Most hep winners,win of a higher rating than last win,yet a lot of punters look for horses that are down in weight.on their mark.maybe 1/10 win. down in weight,9/10 win up in weight.

We ve all seen crap racing everyday,but certain tracks,meetings still are competitive,

Newmarket ,always strong fields,Yarmouth,cos it’s near to newmarket,get alot of big trainers running there.

Thirsk,always big fields,pontefract form seems to stand up.

Can’t trust anything rated 80 or below,they can’t always repeat previous runs.

All horses are rated correctly by the hcper,so you need to look for anything different,
Hood,distance,going,jockey,grade,new stable,wind,

Anything that might lead to the horse running above its rating.

It is possible to enjoy following a sport without betting on it every day and racing is a sport. I do have a small bet most days but also enjoy the sport for its own sake. Following owners, pedigrees, trainers, tactics etc. After 65 years of trying, making a profit is not the main issue for me.

I try to find 4 or 5 races every day to bet win and place in. Avoiding class 6 if I can and certain trainers and jockeys. Cover them all in smaller stake ew multiple and acca. One winner or 3 places usually pays the day.

Go along with all of jimnast says. Older and wiser myself now.

Correct Sparrow.

Not got time to write a book Roadrunner too busy finding my trades. I posted bets to show that every race is so different for me because of my factors which are too many to explain, plus was bang in the middle of racing so they were short replies and sorry for that. Thought people would ask questions but thread went dead so didn't bother anymore, probably why nobody bothers replying anymore when the feedback is always negative.

I wouldn't call myself useless either with my experience of being a bookie, a punter and now I mostly trade, my staking plan is 33 44 55 66 77 88 99 111 222 333 444 555, oddments are added as I always have to leave a round number Can't remember the last 555 I hit. Now you can see why I haven't got time to explain everyone of them.



P.S Your contribution learnt me zero.