Punter cashes out for £50k win

I'd have cashout too esp in a big field and steeplechase or lay it if it was a hotpot; £50k is a lot of money unless one is in the same league as the Energumene backer.

I totally agree with Angela Rebecchi

Ìt must be well in the books favour or they wouldn't offer it. It's really popular with   football punters but have heard some horror stories and very few worthy cash outs.

Poor value but not many would turn it down I certainly wouldnt.. @ that stage it isnt a £2 stake its a £50 k stake on Luccia @ appalling odds.

If one was friendly with a bookie one could lay it off at the track eg lay £75k at 2/1; outcome a minimal return of £75k or £133k (283-150) if Luccia had won.

Few bookies on course willing to take that kind of bet Impossible..

First off ew multiples (L15 etc) are a way to the paupers grave imo as you basically need  all 4 to place to win a reasonable profit (unless massive prices obv) so having done the £1ew acca surely he does another £1 win acca and cash 1 out? Do a L15 but also do a £1 acca and you're quids in (when it happens) either way for minimal outlay as even over time adding £1 to each L15 isn't going to cost you as much in cashing out when this happens - 'when' obv not if as all us acca backers know! There must e several volumes of books worth printing of all the football punters that did/didn't cash out and regretted it forever, same story over and over though.

He wooda took 40 even 30

'workrider', I think a big hitter could persuade his "friendly" bookie to help lay it off for a figure more than the £50k cashout, and evenly split the amount above £50k received in the process esp in a big meet like Cheltenham. To his bookie it's just another financial positive business transaction.

L15s and L31s give great value i think.

Especially double odds 1 winner, but more importantly on extra place races. They can certainly add up!

True, but the stake increases monumentally. Multiples are profitable if at big odds or at least 4/1 plus each selection.

Impossible I know some very big bookies here from going racing and they would have a very hard time laying it off even at Cheltenham. Least we forget this was just a ordinary punter backing I presume in a betting shop ,so why we are even going there is a question in itself.

Punter will probably have to supply paperwork to prove he/she can afford to bet £2.

'workrider', I guess so, £283k is a monumental amount.

Mar 16, 2023 -- 8:18PM, impossible123 wrote:

I'd have cashout too esp in a big field and steeplechase or lay it if it was a hotpot; £50k is a lot of money unless one is in the same league as the Energumene backer.

you should never add the legs of an acca if it's one you are going to cash out on though, as you are giving away a lot of money for no reason

Mar 16, 2023 -- 8:30PM, geoff m wrote:

Poor value but not many would turn it down I certainly wouldnt.. @ that stage it isnt a £2 stake its a £50 k stake on Luccia @ appalling odds.

it's a £50k stake at VERY GENEROUS odds, over 5.0, as the payout would have been £283k

.:. always omit the legs you will cash out by, you are donating away a large amount of your winnings

I am guessing in this scenario if they left out Luccia they would have collected closed to £100k, so the bookies offered 50% of the bet and laughed their way to the bank when they accepted it

The bookmaker paid out £50k to a £2 stake. I don't think they were laughing their way to the bank!

i backed 4 of yesterdays big prices in ew singles dont do multiple bets, but in ew bets with enhanced places etc,
always confused as how you pick the long priced winners alongside a 6 to 4 shot unless you just do horse number,names ,birthdays etc etc,but doing that suggests you wouldnt no about cash outs etc,etc,
but well played who,ever it was

I agree with Freddie different punters different cashout offers,some guy on Facebook yesterday had £2ew T on Stage star 8/1 envoi 12/1 &sir du 66/1 & cashed out for £164 bet photo on Facebook I hope his family hid all the ropes

50k flashing in front of you and waiting for Nico to boost it in a race like that carrying hype……take the 50k all day……imo..

As ever, I don't get the thinking here.

If you stake a 5-fold, but know you'd be tempted to cash out after 4 if the first four all come in, why not split your stakes and bet the 4-fold and the 5-fold for half the amount each?

Shocking cash out offer that for the punter. Should have been nearer 75k. Probably had no option but to take it

The vast majority of punters putting on these sort of bets would not for one moment consider all these different scenarios being suggested here. They will simply decide what to do by taking into account their own financial circumstances.

Should have been at least 75k….but in a race like that……50 large would look good in any account

If you're putting £2 accas on don't think they will have tens of thousands in betfair to lay off, WD that punter would of had a great night celebrating.

Formoftheace. She was trading at well under 2/1 so 75k would seem a reasonable ish offer fair enough if she was 11/4 or even slightly higher, I’d say it was a poor cash out offer for the return expected

Can you not do a "partial cashout"?
Would still have been a pathetic offer, but a few quid in the hole and a run for your money.

Mar 17, 2023 -- 9:51AM, formoftheace wrote:

50k flashing in front of you and waiting for Nico to boost it in a race like that carrying hype……take the 50k all day……imo..

100 %

I think there was a scenario not long ago the punter got a call and accepted an offer…..the fav they would have been waiting on fell early at short odds…..

There was a small drift on Luccia I noticed yesterday. Horse never looked happy, think Nickys horses are not at the races this week.

Basically the cashout was a 25,000-1 shot. In my view even with the poor cashout it was a correct cashout

What could/would you do with fifty large……a lot..and what would it do to the mindset….

Mar 17, 2023 -- 10:56AM, formoftheace wrote:

What could/would you do with fifty large……a lot..and what would it do to the mindset….

Betting is just All relative to your life. Tony Bloom putting 100k on his horse, is the same as some guy putting 500 quid he's saved up with a reasonable job.

I myself have a fascination with winning big from something very, very small.

ITV highlight these huge cash bets- it's quite pathetic really, because as I say it's all Relative to how much money you have in the first place.

This thread highlights how punters have never had it so good,not so long ago the cashout did not exist and he would have got nothing.Those saying it was a poor cashout should bear that in mind £50K V Zilch?

Nice to read a thread with a sensible discussion.

It's all on your circumstances....whether you take a cash out or not .....I was not offered one  in 2021 so had no choice but to let it run.......if I had been offered 40K I would have took it .........if you do take it , you can't beat yourself up if the jackpot win does happen........

I disgaree entirely @Cagliari - had the punter given this 5 minutes of thought he could have had a better result with or without the existence of cashout.

Only by laying longbridge,how else?

formoftheace Joined: 17 Apr 12
Replies: 757617 Mar 23 09:51 
I think there was a scenario not long ago the punter got a call and accepted an offer…..the fav they would have been waiting on fell early at short odds…..

------------------------------
6

FEnvoi Allen (FR)
J:
J. W. Kennedy
T:
Henry de Bromhead, Ireland

-
4/9 f

chased leaders, fell 4th

I doubt that the punter really believed that the 1st 4 in his EW acca would actually win and for once I agree with glen, 50k was a terrific offer under the circs and I would have taken it all day!

I agree with Driver and Glen.

Most punters haven’t got a clue what Betfair Exchange is, never mind have sufficient money or nous to be able to lay off for a better profit. Even though the last leg lost I can’t fault him for taking the offer. He probably couldn’t even work out it was poor value nor care.

@CagliariG

"Only by laying longbridge,how else?"

Stake the 4-fold rather than - or in addition to - the 5-fold, if you know you will bail after 4 winners for a (poor-value) cashout, why stake the 5-fold in the first place?

Or stake both for stakes that will give you the equivalent of a 50% cashout if you want to keep some interest in the last?

He may have had five £5ew singles and thought he’d cover them in a £1ew acca just in case they all placed.

How many small time punters are going to do that longbridge? Unless the chap had a crystal ball how would he know his first 4 would win,could have been any of the others that lost and it would make no difference whether he had done 4 or 5?

He’d have probably took the cash out after the third winner then!

@s.kenbo - fair point, I hadn't considered that it might be an EW acca where the "plan" was to get them all placed and the winners were a surprise.

@Cagliari - No crystal ball required.  Assuming it is a straight 5-leg win acca, you know when you stake it how much you would have running onto the fifth leg if the first 4 copped.  If that amount is an amount that would make you want to cashout, stake the 4-fold.

It's like deal or no deal.

Make a stupid offer and they take it because 50k is a lot
of money.

If people thought about it beforehand they would
steak their bets better.

He's happy, bookies laughing, hey ho.

Why would the bookies be laughing? They've paid out 50k on a losing bet!

It saves them a lot of money over the long term if punters are prepared to take poor value cashouts.

@driver2

"Why would the bookies be laughing? They've paid out 50k on a losing bet!"

What Jack B said - they just bought something worth £75k for £50k.  If you do that often enough, you make a lot of money.

The same concept as finding value as a punter - it doesn't matter if some of your bets are losers, so long as you have positive EV over the long-term you make money.

ROFL longbridge,great business model paying out £50K for £4,do that enough times and they go skint!!!

50 large or wait on Nico surrounded with the big Irish yards hustling him……aye…..50 large please…..ta..carry on Nico….

Do that enough times and a number of them they'll be paying out £50k and dodging paying out £150k when the last leg comes in and the punter has taken the cashout.

heard it  all now "punters never had it so good"   overruns of 135% early prices available in the morning for pennies to p[unters with  losing accounts, yeah great!!

xxxx





longbridge, many years ago I worked for William Hills in their trade department and I can assure you that bookmakers do not make money from hedging. What they do do is reduce their losses by laying off part or all of the liability. In this case they settled the bet at a cost of 50K. Whether or not the horse won is totally irrelevant, the bet was settled and went in their book as a 50K loser. Before Betfair educated the layers, showing them that by allowing punters to "cash out" they could reduce their losses even further, they were forced to hedge with rival bookmakers at the full odds. Some of you have complained that the cash out offered was not enough, but the punter didn't have a gun held to his head and sensibly (imo) took the 50K.

That wasn't me blowing kisses by the way

Luccia went off 13/8.  So if expected win  was 250k and the punter settled for 50k then the effective cash out odds were 4/1!!!

They would have had £100k running onto the final leg, so this cash out was the crime of the century. Pity the punter didnt have the cash to lay some of it off on the pink button. oh well.

I'm sure the punter doesn't think his pay out is the crime of the century, he just got £50k for a losing bet.
I don't like cash outs, your damned if you do damned if you don't. they are undoubtedly poor value and in the long run only one party benefits but I can't see why bookmakers should offer more money, the ball is in the punters court, take it or leave it.

Why would the bookies be laughing? They've paid out 50k on a losing bet!



If they had your excellent hindsight/aftertiming
ability they would doubtless have let it run.

They've settled a 200k debt for £50k of course they
are laughing, it's bookmaking.

Concur with Driver.

I use to hedge down to the business model threshold and certainly a million miles away from making it green , always remembered i was a layer not a backer but always aimed to stay with the business model parameters , never had to cross my fingers to justify anything.

As for the decision to hedge the £50k it'll always be an individual choice against personal circumstances , i've no idea who this guy is so couldn't have a clue what to advise.

Math's is never a consideration or what's perceived as value for money because if they were part of the decision criteria there wouldn't ever be cash outs as nobody would take them , no different to deal or no deal and can only be measured against your own personal financial state and bottle , we're all different as punters and risk takers.

The cash out amount is set as bait and like DOND the onus is on the punter , cuckoo land to expect anything different from a business.


Good luck today all   

As the dealer says.....Take it or leave it as you have the choice.

"If they had your excellent hindsight/aftertiming
ability they would doubtless have let it run."

They've settled a 200k debt for £50k of course they
are laughing, it's bookmaking."

They didn't settle a debt of any kind, let alone 200k. You can't seem to get it into your thick head that the bottom line is that the bookmaker lost 50k! Maybe they would have laughed if the last leg won as they would have saved a packet, but they would still have LOST 50k, this was inevitable once the punter took the cash out. Where in this discussion have I aftertimed? If I had been the bookmaker I would have done the same thing and if I had been the punter I would have tried to cash out half of the bet, but if that wasn't on the table I'd have taken the 50k. I used to read Wilbur Smith's novels and one of his characters was teaching her son how to play the stock market. I have never forgotten her words, "remember son, you'll never get poor taking a profit!"

It didn't work out in the bookmaker's favour on this occasion but one individual bet is insignificant over the long term. Bookmakers offer cash out on most bets these days because it saves them money over the long term. It really is as simple as that.

I think we've covered that Jack. Yes, quite simply they reduce their losses, but they are LOSSES all the same. How could it have worked in the bookmakers favour on this occasion? FFS don't you get it either? Once the punter takes the cash out they've lost 50k, surely that's end of story! A different result wouldn't have changed a thing financially. They may well have slept better, but they would still be out of pocket! Anyway, that's me done on this thread, I could never be a special needs teacher, I haven't got the patience!

driver 

99.6% of punters who plaice these £2 bets aint got a clue of the logistics of gambling..unless the 50k means absolutely fck all of course 99.99% are gona snap it up.

If the horse had won they would have saved themselves a bundle when the punter took the cash out, but the horse lost and they ended up paying out 50 grand, therefore it did not work out in their favour on this occasion. Individual results are irrelevant over the long term.

Someone said earlier about if you're going to cash out don't put the 5th leg in.

Well in this case there is every possibility that if they didn't put the 5th leg in they'd probably have cashed out after the 3rd leg.

If you know you're going to cash out then don't include the 5th leg many have said , does that mean doing a 4 fold you don't put the 4th leg in , how about a treble why not make it a double , maybe a double and not including the 2nd will confirm you're a singles backer.

Mar 18, 2023 -- 3:18PM, duffy wrote:

Someone said earlier about if you're going to cash out don't put the 5th leg in.Well in this case there is every possibility that if they didn't put the 5th leg in they'd probably have cashed out after the 3rd leg.

why is that? the obvious play if betting on several events is to only put in the ones you will run. though I totally get most £2 punters taking on jackpot shots won't actually think about that and the what ifs, so cashing out is obviously a wise move when presented with a monster payout. I just wish tony bloom or someoeone stepped in and gave them £75k for it, and then just pocketed the money by arbing off or letting it run if they so wished as hate the bookies rinsing people in these moments, which they did here.

Mar 18, 2023 -- 2:28PM, driver2 wrote:

"If they had your excellent hindsight/aftertimingability they would doubtless have let it run."They've settled a 200k debt for £50k of course theyare laughing, it's bookmaking." They didn't settle a debt of any kind, let alone 200k. You can't seem to get it into your thick head that the bottom line is that the bookmaker lost 50k! Maybe they would have laughed if the last leg won as they would have saved a packet, but they would still have LOST 50k, this was inevitable once the punter took the cash out. Where in this discussion have I aftertimed? If I had been the bookmaker I would have done the same thing and if I had been the punter I would have tried to cash out half of the bet, but if that wasn't on the table I'd have taken the 50k. I used to read Wilbur Smith's novels and one of his characters was teaching her son how to play the stock market. I have never forgotten her words, "remember son, you'll never get poor taking a profit!"

makes no sense.

I will you a double at 4.0 on flipping a coin twice and you call them right. that's the literal price.

though after the first coin flip I am going to offer you 1.5x your initial bet, and you take it, as it is profit !

Mar 18, 2023 -- 3:24PM, Hayden wrote:

If you know you're going to cash out then don't include the 5th leg many have said , does that mean doing a 4 fold you don't put the 4th leg in , how about a treble why not make it a double , maybe a double and not including the 2nd will confirm you're a singles backer.

only if you are going to cash out at those stages, yes. not sure what you are struggling to understand here.

Mar 18, 2023 -- 3:06PM, driver2 wrote:

I think we've covered that Jack. Yes, quite simply they reduce their losses, but they are LOSSES all the same. How could it have worked in the bookmakers favour on this occasion? FFS don't you get it either? Once the punter takes the cash out they've lost 50k, surely that's end of story! A different result wouldn't have changed a thing financially. They may well have slept better, but they would still be out of pocket! Anyway, that's me done on this thread, I could never be a special needs teacher, I haven't got the patience!

the cash out is a dream result for the bookie in this scenario PRIOR to the final race. obviously knowing the result it was a bad result, but wouldn't we all like to bet after the event

Is it not also a dream result for the puntwr though, £50k for a losing bet,

Some on this forum always play after the event , can't knock it as they have a mighty fine strike rate

if offered 10k cash out 95% wood have accepted.

^
bang on

Mar 18, 2023 -- 3:54PM, Rico-Dangleflaps wrote:

if offered 10k cash out 95% wood have accepted.

I agree

The average Joe isn't going to be sat there doing the "math" to see if the math is right!! Nor are they going to have the means to operate a better work around themselves. They are simply thinking about that figure and what it can do for them.

Exactly

Everything that's  been said is now being repeated over and over again.

Mar 18, 2023 -- 4:15PM, sparrow wrote:

Everything that's

Yeah

Everything that's  been said is now being repeated over and over again.

You're right sparrow , if we're not careful it'll become another Constitution Hill G.O.A.T thread   

Yes over and over, hayden

Everything that's  been said is now being repeated over and over again.

Repetition no less.

50 large sitting in the account looking good and the p continues…….

Every punter on planet would’ve cashed out…….ffs

To turn down a certain £50,000 can only mean one thing - we have a multi-millionaire in our midst!!!!

Exactly

Waiting on Nico on a hype in amongst the primed Irish to do you a favour and win you a right bundle zzzzzzz ffs…

Everything that's  been said is now being repeated over and over again.

I agree with rico.

We're going over old ground now

Everyone seems to be repeating themselves

Stammer…..terrible

Everything that's  been said is now being repeated over and over again.

Everyone seems to be repeating themselves


Everything that's  been said is now being repeated over and over again.

Everyone seems to be repeating themselves


Everything that's  been said is now being repeated over and over again.

Everyone seems to be repeating themselves


Everything that's  been said is now being repeated over and over again.

Everyone seems to be repeating themselves


Everything that's  been said is now being repeated over and over again.

Everyone seems to be repeating themselves


Everything that's  been said is now being repeated over and over again.

Everyone seems to be repeating themselves


Everything that's  been said is now being repeated over and over again.

Everyone seems to be repeating themselves


Everything that's  been said is now being repeated over and over again.

Everyone seems to be repeating themselves


Everything that's  been said is now being repeated over and over again.

Everyone seems to be repeating themselves


Everything that's  been said is now being repeated over and over again.

Everyone seems to be repeating themselves


Everything that's  been said is now being repeated over and over again.

Everyone seems to be repeating themselves


Everything that's  been said is now being repeated over and over again.

Everyone seems to be repeating themselves


Everything that's  been said is now being repeated over and over again.

Everyone seems to be repeating themselves


Everything that's  been said is now being repeated over and over again.

Everyone seems to be repeating themselves


Everything that's  been said is now being repeated over and over again.

Everyone seems to be repeating themselves


Everything that's  been said is now being repeated over and over again.

Everyone seems to be repeating themselves


Everything that's  been said is now being repeated over and over again.

Everyone seems to be repeating themselves


Everything that's  been said is now being repeated over and over again.

Everyone seems to be repeating themselves


Everything that's  been said is now being repeated over and over again.

Everyone seems to be repeating themselves


Everything that's  been said is now being repeated over and over again.

Everyone seems to be repeating themselves

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4lQ_MjU4QHw