Betting In-Play

The only way I can imagine winning money betting IR by 'bot is on the tracks where TPD GPS feed data is available - otherwise what information does your 'bot consume to inform its betting?  And others have pointed out the flaws with that data.

Maybe there are some 'bots using financial market-derived "weight of money" algorithms to bet in-play without knowledge of the real-world race or horses, but that is beyond my skills by a long way.

Anecdotally it seems that most of the winning betting IR is done by those formerly hiring boxes at the racecourse for fast pics and now paying for drone feeds, but that's just hearsay.

been on the forum 14 years

>

Yeah 14 years and still has no clue says it all

You gonna share your longterm wisdom?

its easier to win on the CIU fruit machine.

i'll tell you something voltage.

3 mile chase, jump off.  nothing over £14 backing or laying anything. 

i stick up money at 12.5 and immediately £108 appears looking for 12

now.  that was either someone wanting £108 on exactly the same horse as me, at almost exactly the same time as me, at one tick under what i was looking for.  or someone (afternoon paddy) was simply sticking money in front of mine to make it harder for me to get matched.  and that amount just happened to be an amount i see all the time around my bets. 

usual derision incoming, just telling you exactly what happened.

hth.

Feb 14, 2023 -- 1:53PM, longbridge wrote:

The only way I can imagine winning money betting IR by 'bot is on the tracks where TPD GPS feed data is available - otherwise what information does your 'bot consume to inform its betting?

the money i put up was the other half of a trade.  if you're wondering why paddy would bother making it harder to get matched.  whisper it .... he don't like people greening up. 

keep that to yourself though

things changed again beginning of last week..3-4 others conker with me..way way harder since last mon.

was good owning the fruities too    https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/family-tribute-fruit-ma...

@hulk23

So if the price you were looking for was fair, "paddy" was prepared to take less than fair value (ie lose money) just to stop you - you personally - getting matched?

I get the impression you believe your story and it is not a wind-up but it seems vanishingly unlikely you have been singled out in this peculiar way, or that it would make commercial sence for BF/PP to take a poor price to steal business at a better price from you.

i agree with all that longbridge.

however, you presumably feel all these £108's i see one tick under my bets, including the one mentioned above when there was next to nothing for anything else is just coincidence.  if it's not, and i don't believe it is, there's only one person with the capability to target individual accounts and bets, and that's the person running this place.  when i put the money up at 12.5 did you know it was mine ?  did rico ?  did swaddle ? 

did paddy ?

of course hulk simply needs to video this happening and confront BF, but despite insisting this has been going on for all his bets for months, he hasn't done this.

david, i'm not asking you or anyone else to believe me.  i've stated what happened, it's 100% true, you can make your own mind up, i've a feeling you already have, which is fair enough.

@hulk23

These 108s only appear one tick under *your* bets?

It could not be someone being running a 'bot that looks at markets that are sufficiently liquid and and puts their bet up a tick inside the best offer (anyones, not just hulk's) to save themselves modelling the market from first principles?

The only thing I'm certain of, is that you allege something that is damaging your betting experience and would certainly result in enforcement action from the GC, but won't do anything about it.

now.  that was either someone wanting £108 on exactly the same horse as me, at almost exactly the same time as me, at one tick under what i was looking for.  or someone (afternoon paddy) was simply sticking money in front of mine to make it harder for me to get matched.  and that amount just happened to be an amount i see all the time around my bets.

Hulk, there is a 3rd and more likely option in addition to your either or analysis above, namely: Betfair's X-matching algorithm.

Take this market as an example. I has the x-matching algorithm switched on by betfair and currently looks like this on the website, (Note the amount wanting to back the democrats)

USA - Presidential Election 2024 -- Winning Party

3 Runners            £131,917 Matched

			101.4%		98.5%
Democratic Party	2.16	2.18	2.2		2.28	2.3	2.32	£51,493
	£100	£1,075	£575		£49	£46	£57
Republican Party	1.89	1.9	1.91		1.94	1.95	1.96	£76,104
	£57	£54	£57		£7	£167	£120
Any Other	26	27	28		32	34	36	£4,320
	£17	£7	£3		£2	£17	£28

If I request the prices without the synthetic x-matching prices, i.e. the raw actual market offers
you can clearly see that there's very little real offers wanting to back the democrats, and what the website is displaying is a composite of odds & prices laying the other two runners.
Betfair profit from this x-matching by increasing visual liquidity, and by skimming the difference between the lays and the inverse composite backs.

USA - Presidential Election 2024 -- Winning Party

3 Runners            £131,917 Matched

			101.4%		98.5%
Democratic Party	2.16	2.18	2.2		2.28	2.3	2.32	£51,493
	£4	£926	£569		£2	£1	£10
Republican Party	1.89	1.9	1.91		1.94	1.95	1.96	£76,104
	£57	£54	£57		£7	£167	£105
Any Other	26	27	28		32	34	36	£4,320
	£17	£7	£3		£2	£17	£28

whilst I have no insight into what your market looked like prior to you placing your back at 12.5, you do mention "nothing over £14 backing or laying anything" and £108 is an exact multiple of £14, so if there was 8 x £14 offers to lay on the other runners at a composite inverse odds of 12 or less, the x-matching algorithm would indeed out pip you for a £108 back


next time it happens to you, take a screen shot if you can, it will aid your quest to find out what is going on.

in the above example, there is a real £569 lay offer at 2.2 but with x-matching there is £575 lay offer at 2.2

that extra (front running) £6 @2.2 (£7.20 Liability) is made up of dutching
£6.79 @ 1.94 
£0.41 @ 32

So betfair fulfil a £6 back, arbing it for a £5.97 liability and pocket just under 3 pence.
do that a few thousand times on each market/race and its ££££

Ppl don’t want evidence, they want something they can blame.

If I request the prices without the synthetic x-matching prices, i.e. the raw actual market offers

So how does one request this?

raw data is obtained using the API

So betfair fulfil a £6 back, arbing it for a £5.97 liability and pocket just under 3 pence.
do that a few thousand times on each market/race and its ££££

my argument is paddys role here should be to provide the service and take commission.

if he's getting involved in the markets, as you allude to, he's not doing so for a loss which opens up a whole can of worms as to the extent of his involvement, including the £108 bets. 

all the time i've written about these bets not one persons come on and said no, they're my bets.  same as nobody ever owned up to the Voler bets.  cos they didn't exist.

dustybin is on the money.

If you don't like what you see on the TV, the sensible thing to is to turn it off and seek entertainment elsewhere

simple solution - paddys not allowed to bet on any market as it's clearly not a level playing field given the information he is privy to that nobody else is.

it's person to person.  ohh, and we have a few quid kicking around. 

ffs

few quid kicking around = we're ball deep in every market

Hulk still not able to provide evidence of getting front run despite it happening on every bet he has....