State Man V Const Hill,bring it on.

Feb 6, 2023 -- 9:16AM, Cider wrote:

Willie Mullins doesn't want to lose the Cheltenham festival win at the DRF either. It seemed to me he was far more upset that Lossiemouth might have given Cheltenham away rather than losing on Saturday, ie he would rather have lost with that one on Saturday than have won with a hard race. An easier position if you're going to win the race anyway of course.Ruby Walsh and GOB were pretty adamant that GDC would have been ridden differently if yesterday was the primary objective. The perception among most stakeholders is that a horse has a harder race if it front runs. Though Ruby Walsh himself doesn't agree with that perception.

True. And it's gas the way tactics have totally changed at Willie Mullins'. He was always adamant that he didn't want his runners out in front and until around the time Ricci came on board that was the case, Willie often being quoted as saying 'I'd rather they come too late than are in front too early'. This was always a surprise to me as his father never had a problem with letting them go off on front. But Paul Townend prefers to have them out in front and dictate his own pace rather than have to depend on what the others are doing. But if his hands are tied by Willie there's not much else he can do. I think people also have to take into account the fact that Ruby didn't have to ride against several stablemates in the big races very often the way Willie places them now. In fact Ruby has said he used to persuade Willie (and Nicholls before that) to run horses so the big boys wouldn't clash.

Ruby always looking for the big pay day MJK.

Cakeism it seems to me, they aren't happy with just cleaning up all the races that count, they also want them to finish in the anticipated order, and without negatively impacting upon future plans. It is of course a side effect of having the balance of power rest with one stable, and inevitably must play a part in tactics. Much easier when your main opposition is from a different yard, like the Irish CH.

acey seems me and you are the only ones who think state man can beat constitution.

Your right Foyle and for the life of me i cant understand why.

At least we now have a contest in the champion hurdle

What a battle we have in store i am already excited.

What a battle we have in store i am already excited.

So with CH rated just about the best hurdler of all time, not my opinion by the way, if State Man beats him fair and square in the CH then State Man will be rated the greatest hurdler of all time. Really?

I wrote exited rather than excited. Freudian slip ? As long as there is a good pace and he will likely go on if there isn't one CH will be well in front at the line.

Yeah amazing CH has such a high rating in a short career. Seems sure he will be rated best ever in time. No chance SM beats him providing he jumps well.

What did State Man do yesterday to suggest he could beat CH apart from maybe trying to stack them up and catch CH out off the bend.

Someone who fancies him put some meat on the bones, show the working!!

Having backed State Man yesterday and last year at Cheltenham I have to say I was very pleased with that run yesterday and the fact he led from the front , I can see him sitting in behind C.H.until after the last and winning going away. Talk of C.H. been the best hurdler ever is playing silly beggers imo right now. He has done nothing wrong and has looked like a superstar but so did Hen's triple G.Cup winner a few years ago until you look back and think what good horse did he ever beat...Anyway Chemical will have a few sleepless nights until March...

Duffy you asked the question, here is an answer.

Yesterday State Man beat two multiple Group 1 winners and the winners of 14 Group 1's into 2nd and third places.

CH beat one multiple Group 1 winner the winner of 7 Group 1's into 2nd and third places in his last win.

Some will say Honeysuckle never ran her race but the same would apply to Epatante because NH said she wasn't fully wound up. Whereas in her latest win NH said she was the best he had her.

brigust , Timeform must be going on timefigures then ?  But if they are accurate they tell you how good a horse is. Doesn't matter what is being beaten.

lets hope state man can give him a race we will see what happen ............could be a bridal ponce!

No Howard, they tell you how good THEY think they are. And from my experience they are wrong more times than they are right.

I have backed CH on 26th Nov at 8/11 and I hope he wins but, as we saw yesterday in Ireland, stranger things have happened.

the media /racing world are desperate for a superstar  and a quick to lord anything that impresses ............"could be the best ever"   is bandied about he may well win the champ hurdle but lets not get too carried away yet  !

So if a horse runs 5f at York carrying 9 stone on good ground no wind in 51 seconds it doesn't tell ME/US anything just THEM ?

If the ground description /wind is accurate ( my words )  A timefigure of 140 ( flat ) tells you immediately a horse is in the BG class.   -  Phil  Bull in Timefigures (1983 ) book I own.

I think it is far too early to describe CH as possibly the best ever. Maybe he will be but not just yet. I think he is overhyped and has beaten F*** all, that is not his fault as he can only beat the opposition that turn up.
When I think back to Bula,Persian War, Monksfield, Sea Pigeon, Istabraq. I would not have CH in that league as yet

Depending a few things ie price, going, stable updates, number of horses etc I would be interested in having a 2nd look at Epatante for a place.

She knows her way home around there and will most likely be dropped right out and be ridden with a place in mind so her getting 3rd or 4th isn’t that outrageous when you think about it.

Just at current prices…33/1 eachway 1/4 odds 3 place pays out more for grabbing a place that either of the front two winning even subtracting your lost win portion of the bet into the equation.

That depends on whether you listen to you or to them, Howard. I listen to ME.

When considering a horse running over 5f at York do you take into consideration the fact that the 5f course today is not the same as it was in and before 2008? The same point applies to Ascot and Doncaster among others.

In 1965 I think it was Bull who  said the only reason he could separate Sea Bird II from Tudor Minstrel and Abernant was because Sea Bird won the more prestigious race, namely the Arc. Do you take the race prestige into consideration when doing ratings?

Howard re timeform can I just give up work and rely on if for my income;I await you're reply

Well you know the answer is no. But we are talking about timefigures which is of course not time alone and certainly not betting.  One daft thing Bull said is that punters can use timefigures to get knowledge that bookmakers don't have. He must have hoped punters were stupid because can't bookies buy timeform products ?

Brigust , they didn't have computer timefigures at timeform in those days. So you are just talking about ratings which is completely different to timefigures.

So you State Man fans ,ask yourselves where would Epatante have finished in yesterdays race?? and how far beaten??

Yes Howard, best I don't start about time figures. If they are your bent then that's great, but not mine.

Geoff I think CH will win the CH but I will wait until the race. I think State Man has strong credentials in a normal CH but this may not be a normal CH. After all CH has only beaten stable companions in his last three races so winning race distances may not be entirely credible. Cheltenham will tell us a lot more.

Mr C , I go back that far. He's definitely in that league. The only question is level or above imo.

I would be firmly in con  hill favour that ge would come out on top,I said on another thread that ge could win by as much as last year's supreme but not so sure now and willing to listen to other view's but after yesterday's result not the view's of thise that think it's wins outta the park

I am not interested in any number approach for betting. And a great timefigure will almost certainly mean the horse has won half the track so it's obvious.

Weirdest thing is apparently first discussion on race tactics twixt trainer and jockey happened in paddock few minutes before the race. Not the first time I've read this and just very odd that such a professional outfit dont at least have a plan pencilled in.
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Couldn't believe it myself when I heard WPM interviewed after the State Man race yesterday,"I was surprised because when he came into the ring I asked him (Paul) what he was going to do and he said he was going to make it"

You often have to change plans early in race anyway. Just leave it to a top jock if you have one. As you say though a bit surprising although I would say much less so if Ruby was still on board.

Be interesting to see if Townend now plans to go from the front at Cheltenham; maybe yesterday that was in the back of his mind, and a tester to see how State Man jumped in front. How does he beat CH tactically if CH is on top of his game? Front run, try and slow it down and kick? I guess Mullins will have other runners though, but none jumps out as an obvious frontrunner.

surely honeysuckle will have an entry in the champion as well as mares.anything could happen,i am not wanting it,to the 2 leaders and if she is in foal it could be another bonus.may as well enter both races and wait as long as possible.

surely honeysuckle will have an entry in the champion as well as mares.anything could happen,i am not wanting it,to the 2 leaders and if she is in foal it could be another bonus.may as well enter both races and wait as long as possible.



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Going by the comments of her owner there's no way she'll face the "Big Two" @ Cheltenham,he said there's a new batch of younger horses who are quicker than her,I wouldn't be completely surprised if they decide to retire her.

Posted this on 22nd Jan in the supreme thread 2022 and nothing has changed, absolute star -

Can't see anything beating Constitution Hill. Think he is going to end up being the next superstar and will only make a better Chaser

I can actually see Honeysuckle giving state man a bit of a run for second as she will be better for a stiffer test like Cheltenham at her age.

Punchestown read your post earlier and gone straight to the point I backed state man and was losing a bit at the time (on at 1/1)I thought he wouldn't ride it any other way and when it went 5/4 I had only £80 and 60yoyo in my pocket but was gonna have another 3 on with the card but thought is something up so left it,I never expected Paul to ride the race any other way (when on the best horses and able to do so lead it's a no brainer)

Do you think he will do the same in Champion Bentring or be allowed to by Nico. ??

Honeysuckle confirmed for mares.

Bit early to be talking about the GOAT imo, as someone alluded to earlier the Media love building up the potentials, puts bums on seats and sells papers after all.

Will be difficult to convince many hes a goat even after hes left State Man 10 lengths in his wake.
But for tragedy in the Scottish Champion hurdle probably the greatest of all time unfortunately never got to prove it. Golden Cygnet.

I'm not sure it will sell newspapers or make any difference to bums on seats. NH will only run him scarcely possibly three times a season and I cannot see that making any difference to sales overall. And even if Timeform rate him highly who will give a s***. Not me. I, like many others I'm sure, will judge him on what he wins and who he beats. Performance on the racecourse is what matters not what Chapman or Henderson tell us.

He is probably the very best in an average era ....just like Istabraq was .
Beating up a past it Epantante is hardly duelling with Sir Ken , Bula , Monksfield , Night Nurse , Sea Pigeon , Persian War and co.
One of the reasons the late 70's is referred to as the 'golden era' is that horses of the quality of  Birds Nest , Dramatist , Beacon Light etc never even won a title......whereas Katchit , Sublimity , Punjabi et al did.

The superiority of CH made folks think Epatantes past it.

Not being able to beat Not So Sleepy receiving 7 pounds ........not to mention Marie's Rock and Story Ireland .......that is a sell by date long flown away....

Geoff m I think de bonville  would be happy to take a lead if Paul is going fast enough either way both should know what their horse is capable of and same applies to Paul if nico leads

Other than beating Not So sleepy receiving 7lbs on the last 3 times they met??












Six im not sure how you conclude a dead heat with Not So Sleepy followed by beating that horse on the next 3 times they meet shows a sign of deteriorating



.

Not So Sleepy was 125/1 to beat Honeysuckle in March ....Epatante was 16/1 ......

It was less than a year ago a past it Epetante  was 2nd
in the Chmpn Hdle behind Honeysuckle.

^^Yes and the next three home never won a Gr1 over hurdles even though there are so many Gr 1 races going around. It wasn't a strong race with any real depth.
Don't get me wrong she is a lovely mare who has done me a favour or two but she is what she is.

Think this thread should end now and allow someone to resurrect it in January 2025.

A more appropriate time to be discussing GOAT status if CH is still in the running.


Have a great Cheltenham all   

geoff I promise you CH is better than Golden Cygnet. He's up there with Night Nurse Sea Pigeon Monksfield running at THEIR BEST in a race they were TRAINED FOR  ( the champion hurdle ) and not a late season race in Scotland.

Hayden are you like this outside of the forum ?   I like to know/think a horse is GOAT ( or somewhere near ) after one run when everyone else needs to see more.  This can make you money betting if you are right.

Think he would have been trained for supreme and at the time Ayr wouldn't have been on their mind

You lot are going to look like a bunch of Mugs when State Man kicks his arse Big Time at Cheltenham...Constitution Hill  will fold like a cheap Tent when he comes of the bridle ffs.

If a race ( Ayr ) is turned into a lottery by all runners not at their best you can have a race that you shouldn't pay great attention to. But I understand why want to read it the way they do.

*why they

howard

Fair enough mate , just seems a lot of time & effort put into the thread to go around in unproven circles.


May the best horse win   

Hayden , all I would say in defense of the thread is that most people ( including if you can believe him Mullins ) think State Man is well up to being a better than average winner of the Champion hurdle. I would guess they are right therefore to back a horse to beat him at shorter than 1/2 probably requires you to believe CH is in the Sea Pigeon class. Of course many don't think that and wouldn't have him at Evens.

We can come back in 2025 Hayden with Constitution a dual champion hurdler with the naysayers asking whats he beat??

Think the non believers will be almost won over by then geoff with a triple only 2 months away all being well , mind you for the disbelievers no less than 10 lengths will do of course.

For all their bluster the Irish will have no more than 1% of their betting banks on State Man.
They aint stupid

with a likely field of 6 or 7 runners its going to be tactical & i think 10 will be hoping.
Only way hes going to get a fast pace to show his true greatness is if he does it himself.

Sea Pigeon, Night Nurse, Monksfield, Comedy of Errors, Lanzarote et al are proven established top class hurdlers who took each other. Testing their ratings. Everyone interested in horse racing consider these to be household names following their exploits on the racecourse.
Constitution Hill has a mountain to climb until he beats horses of this class and calibre.
The Timeform ratings are a complete joke when they try to calculate a top class racehorse running against much lesser horses. They have not the slightest idea nor do they understand 'class'.

He cant do anymore, other than beat grade 1 winners by wide margins and make em look distinctly average under hands and heels without ever having a smack.

Someone on the forum said Best Mate beat nowt in 3 Gold Cups. For me he was a better Gold Cup horse than Kauto Star and an even better jumper of fences. It's possible for the greatest hurdler of all time to be born/around when everything else is poor. That's a fact however you rate CH or any other horse.

They were a poor bunch of 3-y-o's in the US in 1973. A horse won a classic by 31 lengths. It was a poor field of modest horses and non-stayers. If you think like Brigust the winner had helleva lot  to prove.

Those hurdlers in the 70's used to beat each other.
Horseracing was more popular then aswell.Don't make
them better horses.

It was a great era for sure but i think our judgement might be somewhat clouded.

As a time merchant Howard are you not contradicting your own calculations? That horse in 73 still holds the course records for all the classic races. Odd statement or just trying and failing to make a point.

Penzance if you don't understand 'you are only better than what you beat', I will leave it at that.

Leave it at that then.
Too many people suffer from 'Everything was better in the past syndrome'.

As said previously,far too early to be talking about best ever,that said I have never seen a horse with so much potential then CH so early in a career.As Brigust says,trusting your own eyes is far more reliable than relying on the likes of Timeform,especially if you were around during the "Golden Era.His trainer managed 3 Champion Hurdles with See You When who was as fragile as glass.CH looks the opposite,robust,with NH handling him he could conceivably equal or better SYT or Istabraq.

Unfortunately for Acey (and eyewitnesses) I expect to see his bare arse in Tesco's window with MUG tattooed on his cheeks and Kemo Sabe with a billboard stating "The squirells knew"!!!

Don't throw the toys out of the pram Pen. It's Timeform that say the best hurdlers ran in the 60's etc. It is the same on the Flat where 7 of the 9 highest rated were born in the 40's to 60's. They are in such a mess anything that looks useful now is considered the greatest ever until it fails no matter how few races it runs. Look at Flightline and Baaeed. Don't blame us.

have no problem with constitution hill its just a price thing for me his odds are too short for me to be interested am on stateman at 12.5 and vauban at 18.5  on here  but not for a lot of dough .

I have no problem with CH either and think 2/5 is about his price. Even that might look good on the day. From what I have seen I cannot see anything beating him. I cannot remember State Man being in consideration earlier and I suppose he could be anything we will have to wait and see. Mind you I thought Baaeed was a good think at Ascot as well. This horse has been very lightly raced, unlike Baaeed, and I can only see one of Nicky's previously unknown but strange illnesses or injuries to stop him.

If he gets to post he will be 1/4 imo. irrespective who turns up. but they arent machines(even tho he resmbles 1).

I'm guessing he'll be a fair bit bigger than that geoff , will depend somewhat to how many runners turn up as many bookmakers will be 1/4 odds all Cheltenham races so will have to tighten up the field if 8+ runners , CH not been seen for a while as well not that it'll make any difference to performance and also in the context of the meeting reputation won't influence bookmakers on the day and they'll want to lay it anyway as a small cog in a big wheel.

My guess would be 1/2 available if 8+ runners irrespective of how good 6 of the runners are , tenner punters will do ok as they'll get Evens with one of the big bookies for max £10 as that's seems the way to draw people in for new accounts these days as well as rewarding loyalty to existing customers.

It's a race to watch for me anyway unless the race cards on the day present an opportunity for a bad e/way acca then even State Man may be included.

didnt stop Douvan going off @ 2/9 in Champion Chase a few years back with 10 runners  Hayden and that was 1/4 the odds!!

Frankel twice @ 1/10 with 10 runners   2nd fav went off 5s!!!!

There's a few additional factors here. It's likely the Irish will be bullish (like the OP) and be piling on, and in theory the market doesn't know the limitation of State Man. The outcome of the earlier races will play a part, obviously if Mullins/the Irish are on a roll the market momentum is likely to be with SM. CH was surprisingly weak on the day last year as well.

Yes geoff loved the Excelebration bad e/way stuff in multi's and one particular one with the 3rd horse in Black Caviar's race , depends on shape of race also and doubt anyone would want to go 7/2 or 4/1 2nd fav vs fav at 1/4 and offer a no risk e/way bet providing they want to even look like offering somewhere near a decent enough book, but who knows , the planet calls it a one or two horse race now but on the day it always looks a tad more unpredictable than that.

Comparisons would have to be made as for shape of race and the price gap between the 2nd - 3rd - 4th fav's etc but doubt either of use has the will to be bothered with that. .

Let's just wait and see and i'm just giving a guessing opinion.


Best of luck 

@ 1/4 they aint going to go 7/2 or 4/1 2nd fav with 8 runners  more like 11/4 with Vauban in @ 6s. Just the usual rip off nowadays .
will be around 140%  @sp if 8 runners plus. The days of 1/4  fav and 7/2 4s 2nd fave have well and truly gone.

all about opinions Hayden. I enjoy pricing up an event as much as selecting the winner.

I always try to fins snippets on social media, no idea who it is but "@nationalhuntpro" a lad on there reckons Constitution Hill has a "dirty head carriage". Had a little look at replays maybe has a point but I'd say that's just the horse. Not something I heard elsewhere so worth throwing into the ring. I cannot for the life of me see how the horse gets beat barring accidents.

Brigust , of course he had the time records.  I mentioned that because you have previously said you think timefigures are not an accurate measure of class. I strongly disagree providing the going /wind / exact distance is known. But I would like to hear you have a live talk with Timeform on the subject.

I can't have the 70s as the golden era, agree with Penzance, they used to beat each other. Istabraq would of been the only 4 time winner of the champion hurdle( won Irish hurdle in a canter and in form of his life) but for foot and mouth. His speed off that final bend would of destroyed all of those 70s horses. Then you've got Hatton's Grace and Sir Ken what IMHO would of beat those 70s horses too.

They were racing on dreadful ground back then before drainage work. Sea Pigeon was way better on good/ quick ground and would have won more Champions on it imo. Having said that Monksfield was a wonderful colt.

Good morning Guys,

My tuppence worth

Laurie (Brigust) and i are in agreement somewhat with BHA/Timeform ratings, they are certainly not the be all and end all, but on the other side of the coin, the only numerical system (not related to time) to determine if horse A is better than horse B.

Readers of my lay thread know i'm a massive fan of CH, i was at Sandown when he made his debut in a novice; i didn't back him then, but he made such a mental impression that i fully expected him to go straight into graded class for the Tolworth (it was a logical view and i stated here at the time). When i saw the sectionals i was convinced he was decent and backed him for that race (that actually wasn't a strong Grade 1 field bar him) and done so in his 3 subsequent runs. Last year i mentioned he will not be beaten over hurdles this season and could be shortest odds for the Champion Hurdle since Sir Ken (2/5) in 1953.

Until December last year, i can't recollect ever backing odds-on ante-post for a race since Frankel, but i'm on at 4/7 and 2/5 for the CH. Not the best betting strategy it has to be said, but in my opinion i'm actually betting on him turning up on March 14th. State Man is obviously useful and the race is increasingly looking like a match, but in a clean race i can't see CH losing. He switches off during a race, travels well, is a slick a hurdler as any in the past including Buveur d'Air (watch the final 2 flights at Newcastle) and has a turn of foot up there with the best. His winning distance total in 5 races is 77L. Mind you, i've been wrong before.

Comparing CH to Night Nurse et all at this stage is pointless, much of it based on opinion and even if he wins it's a bit too early for consideration as GOAT, but State Man is rated 167 by the IRB so imagine the media response if CH wins by 15L.

Good luck all.

Agree geoff , good discussion and we'll see what goes next month 

Andrew I think Bull said about timefigures they show you how poor a horse  isn't not how good it is. But it looks like they already rate CH very highly. Don't agree with all their work ( especially what I believe are potential flaws in sectional time thinking  when rating fields of lightly raced horses ) but I do here.

His speed off that final bend would of destroyed all of those 70s horses

Agree entirely ....beating Theatreworld is much more impressive then the duals Monksfield  , Night Nurse and Sea Pigeon fought at Cheltenham and Aintree .......

Howard,

CH is clearly out of the ordinary (just as Frankel was) and i don't need ratings to tell me this, but like yourself and Timeform, i rate him very highly. Istabraq is the best hurdler this century and prior to that, Night Nurse over 2 decades earlier, but he has the potential at least to surpass these after only 5 races under rules.

It's not just the winning, but the manner in which he wins, as soon as Nico presses the button the race is over in several strides with Frankel-like acceleration. State Man is good, but i can't see him winning in March, in fact i think Vauban could finish close to him, ignore his 2 runs this season, he hasn't hurdled well and it hasn't gone right for him in either race.

Of course CH still has a bit to prove to match the media expectations, and we've seen 'bubbles' burst before on a racetrack, but i have a feeling this one is not for bursting.

I personally can't see how State Man came out of the race the other day with as much credit as he has, particularly in relation to beating CH, yes he is slick but he basically stacked them up and booted away from the second last, there was only 8 lengths between him and Zanahiyr at the line. He's won grade 1's but they are made up of a horse in Vauban who hasn't been able to make that step forward and a few of the usual suspects and Honeysuckle's run was deemed by connections bad enough to now not even warrant a place in the CH.

I wouldn't be surprised if a truer gauge of his ability is still the County win off 141 by a diminishing length or so from First Street....I wonder what CH does to that one at home.

Best leave me out of the 'ratings and speed figures discussion, but anyone who thinks we need ratings to tell us that CH looks like the best horse around by some way is misguided, if you asked me.

I wouldn't be surprised if a truer gauge of his ability is still the County win off 141 by a diminishing length or so from First Street....I wonder what CH does to that one at home.....If you think that your probably the biggest Mug on The Forum.

Another reason I find it difficult to reach any conclusion about CH being the GOAT is following the BHA's announcement about 'the continuation of British jump racing's demise'. That is not the back drop you want to hear and it is significant when Timeform etc do not, cannot, take these points into consideration. The GOAT should be racing at a time when the sport is on the up, strong, healthy and competitive not 'dying'.

2nd biggest I'd say.

We've got a discussion going on about whether CH is the greatest hurdler of all time whilst at the same time deliberating whether he will win this year's Champion Hurdle.

The point is this, if CH did not exist what we would be saying right now is that the 2 mile division is still in a very fallow period, perhaps even in a worse state than the Buveur D'air years and when Honeysuckle won her races, no-one would be hailing State Man as anything special.

Remember when the mighty Saint Roi won the County Hurdle off 4lbs lower than State Man did and he went into the following season as the buzz horse on everyone's lips for the that seasons Champion Hurdle,he was soon put in his place in open company being beat by Sharjah, Abacadabras and Honeysuckle when those horses were running at a much higher level to what two of them are now racing at and which State Man has just beaten.

CH may not be the greatest of all time, but he might be the 5th best.....where does an 8 length beating of Zanahiyr in a sprint put State Man in that list???

Zanahiyr hasn't shown his form this season but that may be because his trainer has just been fined for illegal substances found in samples after the CH. There is too much of that going on imo. Jim Bolger referred to it last year and he knows more than most. With Sea Pigeon at the bottom of the Timeform list CH still has a very long way to go to even get on the list.