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CH will have a race this time,that's for sure.
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Constitution Hill different class to anything else.
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he might turn out to be the best thing blah blah blah,
but until he meets and beats CH horses he just remains a very good horse ! |
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p.s. Eptante is past her best !
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So might Honeysuckle!
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The good thing is that State Man will now have a very high rating so if CH stuffs him then he can get a massive rating and be crowned the greatest of all time.
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Weirdest thing is apparently first discussion on race tactics twixt trainer and jockey happened in paddock few minutes before the race. Not the first time I've read this and just very odd that such a professional outfit dont at least have a plan pencilled in.
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Steve Mellish thinks State Man wont even trouble Constitution Hill at Cheltenham....Silly man.
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I agree with him, I actually think today was evidence against State Man's chances, not for him IMO.
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the acid test will be when or if anything can go with cons hill and it turns into a battle and he comes off the bridal ,then we will see what he is made of, if state man continues he looks to be the only one capable of doing so .
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state man continues his progression^^^^^
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As I said on another thread it's a pity Willie didn't allow PT the same luxury of deciding tactics on a few others at the meeting. He said as much re Lossiemouth.
It doesn't really get discussed, but the dynamic of a trainer having most of the field, and all the horses with a perceived chance is quite precarious regarding tactics. 'First world problem' but you're potentially in race fixing territory and upsetting owners of the other stable runners in the race. I doubt for a trainer with a long odds on shot and 75% of the runners, trouble in running is high up in pre race considerations. Then you've got the dynamic of Danny Mullins using race riding skill and opportunity to help kill off the chances of the said stable favourite. Mullins is obviously riding for himself but it's another twist in a race where the post mortem at the yard after the dust has settled will be quite an interesting one, presumably. |
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Your expecting a great clash , but CH will make him look just ordinary.
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We shall see but my money will be on State Man.
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Yes Cider. And it's also the reason why, if allowed, Townend would make the running on the majority of his rides in these big races. He knows the others have a chance as well and wants to do what's best for himself obviously. Even though he won on Galopin Des Champs Townend had no doubt the horse would stay and had no qualms about making the running, but Willie wasn't so sure and insisted the horse be held up. Ironically after the race Willie then used the exact same reasoning for the horse staying as Townend had been using the days before, ie if he could win a Grade 1 hurdle over 3M he'd have no problem with this trip over fences. But as you alluded to Willie also has to let other owners see he's trying to also do what's best to give their horses a chance as well. Though if I was Rich Ricci I'd be asking was Vauban given the best chance of winning yesterday (winner won well of course).
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Willie Mullins doesn't want to lose the Cheltenham festival win at the DRF either. It seemed to me he was far more upset that Lossiemouth might have given Cheltenham away rather than losing on Saturday, ie he would rather have lost with that one on Saturday than have won with a hard race. An easier position if you're going to win the race anyway of course.
Ruby Walsh and GOB were pretty adamant that GDC would have been ridden differently if yesterday was the primary objective. The perception among most stakeholders is that a horse has a harder race if it front runs. Though Ruby Walsh himself doesn't agree with that perception. |
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If he improves 10 lb Acey he might get within 5 lengths.
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Ruby always looking for the big pay day MJK.
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Cakeism it seems to me, they aren't happy with just cleaning up all the races that count, they also want them to finish in the anticipated order, and without negatively impacting upon future plans. It is of course a side effect of having the balance of power rest with one stable, and inevitably must play a part in tactics. Much easier when your main opposition is from a different yard, like the Irish CH.
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acey seems me and you are the only ones who think state man can beat constitution.
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Your right Foyle and for the life of me i cant understand why.
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At least we now have a contest in the champion hurdle
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What a battle we have in store i am already excited.
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What a battle we have in store i am already excited.
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So with CH rated just about the best hurdler of all time, not my opinion by the way, if State Man beats him fair and square in the CH then State Man will be rated the greatest hurdler of all time. Really?
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I wrote exited rather than excited. Freudian slip ? As long as there is a good pace and he will likely go on if there isn't one CH will be well in front at the line.
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Yeah amazing CH has such a high rating in a short career. Seems sure he will be rated best ever in time. No chance SM beats him providing he jumps well.
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What did State Man do yesterday to suggest he could beat CH apart from maybe trying to stack them up and catch CH out off the bend.
Someone who fancies him put some meat on the bones, show the working!! |
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Having backed State Man yesterday and last year at Cheltenham I have to say I was very pleased with that run yesterday and the fact he led from the front , I can see him sitting in behind C.H.until after the last and winning going away. Talk of C.H. been the best hurdler ever is playing silly beggers imo right now. He has done nothing wrong and has looked like a superstar but so did Hen's triple G.Cup winner a few years ago until you look back and think what good horse did he ever beat...Anyway Chemical will have a few sleepless nights until March...
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Duffy you asked the question, here is an answer.
Yesterday State Man beat two multiple Group 1 winners and the winners of 14 Group 1's into 2nd and third places. CH beat one multiple Group 1 winner the winner of 7 Group 1's into 2nd and third places in his last win. Some will say Honeysuckle never ran her race but the same would apply to Epatante because NH said she wasn't fully wound up. Whereas in her latest win NH said she was the best he had her. |
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brigust , Timeform must be going on timefigures then ? But if they are accurate they tell you how good a horse is. Doesn't matter what is being beaten.
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lets hope state man can give him a race we will see what happen ............could be a bridal ponce!
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No Howard, they tell you how good THEY think they are. And from my experience they are wrong more times than they are right.
I have backed CH on 26th Nov at 8/11 and I hope he wins but, as we saw yesterday in Ireland, stranger things have happened. |
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the media /racing world are desperate for a superstar and a quick to lord anything that impresses ............"could be the best ever" is bandied about he may well win the champ hurdle but lets not get too carried away yet !
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So if a horse runs 5f at York carrying 9 stone on good ground no wind in 51 seconds it doesn't tell ME/US anything just THEM ?
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If the ground description /wind is accurate ( my words ) A timefigure of 140 ( flat ) tells you immediately a horse is in the BG class. - Phil Bull in Timefigures (1983 ) book I own.
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I think it is far too early to describe CH as possibly the best ever. Maybe he will be but not just yet. I think he is overhyped and has beaten F*** all, that is not his fault as he can only beat the opposition that turn up.
When I think back to Bula,Persian War, Monksfield, Sea Pigeon, Istabraq. I would not have CH in that league as yet |
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Depending a few things ie price, going, stable updates, number of horses etc I would be interested in having a 2nd look at Epatante for a place.
She knows her way home around there and will most likely be dropped right out and be ridden with a place in mind so her getting 3rd or 4th isn’t that outrageous when you think about it. Just at current prices…33/1 eachway 1/4 odds 3 place pays out more for grabbing a place that either of the front two winning even subtracting your lost win portion of the bet into the equation. |