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State Man V Const Hill,bring it on.
State Man V Const Hill,bring it on.
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That depends on whether you listen to you or to them, Howard. I listen to ME.
When considering a horse running over 5f at York do you take into consideration the fact that the 5f course today is not the same as it was in and before 2008? The same point applies to Ascot and Doncaster among others. In 1965 I think it was Bull who said the only reason he could separate Sea Bird II from Tudor Minstrel and Abernant was because Sea Bird won the more prestigious race, namely the Arc. Do you take the race prestige into consideration when doing ratings? |
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Howard re timeform can I just give up work and rely on if for my income;I await you're reply
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Well you know the answer is no. But we are talking about timefigures which is of course not time alone and certainly not betting. One daft thing Bull said is that punters can use timefigures to get knowledge that bookmakers don't have. He must have hoped punters were stupid because can't bookies buy timeform products ?
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Brigust , they didn't have computer timefigures at timeform in those days. So you are just talking about ratings which is completely different to timefigures.
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So you State Man fans ,ask yourselves where would Epatante have finished in yesterdays race?? and how far beaten??
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Yes Howard, best I don't start about time figures. If they are your bent then that's great, but not mine.
Geoff I think CH will win the CH but I will wait until the race. I think State Man has strong credentials in a normal CH but this may not be a normal CH. After all CH has only beaten stable companions in his last three races so winning race distances may not be entirely credible. Cheltenham will tell us a lot more. |
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Mr C , I go back that far. He's definitely in that league. The only question is level or above imo.
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I would be firmly in con hill favour that ge would come out on top,I said on another thread that ge could win by as much as last year's supreme but not so sure now and willing to listen to other view's but after yesterday's result not the view's of thise that think it's wins outta the park
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I am not interested in any number approach for betting. And a great timefigure will almost certainly mean the horse has won half the track so it's obvious.
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Weirdest thing is apparently first discussion on race tactics twixt trainer and jockey happened in paddock few minutes before the race. Not the first time I've read this and just very odd that such a professional outfit dont at least have a plan pencilled in.
------------------------------------------------- Couldn't believe it myself when I heard WPM interviewed after the State Man race yesterday,"I was surprised because when he came into the ring I asked him (Paul) what he was going to do and he said he was going to make it" |
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You often have to change plans early in race anyway. Just leave it to a top jock if you have one. As you say though a bit surprising although I would say much less so if Ruby was still on board.
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Be interesting to see if Townend now plans to go from the front at Cheltenham; maybe yesterday that was in the back of his mind, and a tester to see how State Man jumped in front. How does he beat CH tactically if CH is on top of his game? Front run, try and slow it down and kick? I guess Mullins will have other runners though, but none jumps out as an obvious frontrunner.
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surely honeysuckle will have an entry in the champion as well as mares.anything could happen,i am not wanting it,to the 2 leaders and if she is in foal it could be another bonus.may as well enter both races and wait as long as possible.
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surely honeysuckle will have an entry in the champion as well as mares.anything could happen,i am not wanting it,to the 2 leaders and if she is in foal it could be another bonus.may as well enter both races and wait as long as possible.
------------------------- Going by the comments of her owner there's no way she'll face the "Big Two" @ Cheltenham,he said there's a new batch of younger horses who are quicker than her,I wouldn't be completely surprised if they decide to retire her. |
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Posted this on 22nd Jan in the supreme thread 2022 and nothing has changed, absolute star -
Can't see anything beating Constitution Hill. Think he is going to end up being the next superstar and will only make a better Chaser I can actually see Honeysuckle giving state man a bit of a run for second as she will be better for a stiffer test like Cheltenham at her age. |
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Punchestown read your post earlier and gone straight to the point I backed state man and was losing a bit at the time (on at 1/1)I thought he wouldn't ride it any other way and when it went 5/4 I had only £80 and 60yoyo in my pocket but was gonna have another 3 on with the card but thought is something up so left it,I never expected Paul to ride the race any other way (when on the best horses and able to do so lead it's a no brainer)
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Do you think he will do the same in Champion Bentring or be allowed to by Nico. ??
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Honeysuckle confirmed for mares.
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Bit early to be talking about the GOAT imo, as someone alluded to earlier the Media love building up the potentials, puts bums on seats and sells papers after all.
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Will be difficult to convince many hes a goat even after hes left State Man 10 lengths in his wake.
But for tragedy in the Scottish Champion hurdle probably the greatest of all time unfortunately never got to prove it. Golden Cygnet. |
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I'm not sure it will sell newspapers or make any difference to bums on seats. NH will only run him scarcely possibly three times a season and I cannot see that making any difference to sales overall. And even if Timeform rate him highly who will give a s***. Not me. I, like many others I'm sure, will judge him on what he wins and who he beats. Performance on the racecourse is what matters not what Chapman or Henderson tell us.
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He is probably the very best in an average era ....just like Istabraq was .
Beating up a past it Epantante is hardly duelling with Sir Ken , Bula , Monksfield , Night Nurse , Sea Pigeon , Persian War and co. One of the reasons the late 70's is referred to as the 'golden era' is that horses of the quality of Birds Nest , Dramatist , Beacon Light etc never even won a title......whereas Katchit , Sublimity , Punjabi et al did. |
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The superiority of CH made folks think Epatantes past it.
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Not being able to beat Not So Sleepy receiving 7 pounds ........not to mention Marie's Rock and Story Ireland .......that is a sell by date long flown away....
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Geoff m I think de bonville would be happy to take a lead if Paul is going fast enough either way both should know what their horse is capable of and same applies to Paul if nico leads
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Other than beating Not So sleepy receiving 7lbs on the last 3 times they met??
Six im not sure how you conclude a dead heat with Not So Sleepy followed by beating that horse on the next 3 times they meet shows a sign of deteriorating . |
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Not So Sleepy was 125/1 to beat Honeysuckle in March ....Epatante was 16/1 ......
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It was less than a year ago a past it Epetante was 2nd
in the Chmpn Hdle behind Honeysuckle. |
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^^Yes and the next three home never won a Gr1 over hurdles even though there are so many Gr 1 races going around. It wasn't a strong race with any real depth.
Don't get me wrong she is a lovely mare who has done me a favour or two but she is what she is. |
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Think this thread should end now and allow someone to resurrect it in January 2025.
A more appropriate time to be discussing GOAT status if CH is still in the running. Have a great Cheltenham all  |
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geoff I promise you CH is better than Golden Cygnet. He's up there with Night Nurse Sea Pigeon Monksfield running at THEIR BEST in a race they were TRAINED FOR ( the champion hurdle ) and not a late season race in Scotland.
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Hayden are you like this outside of the forum ?
 I like to know/think a horse is GOAT ( or somewhere near ) after one run when everyone else needs to see more. This can make you money betting if you are right. |
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Think he would have been trained for supreme and at the time Ayr wouldn't have been on their mind
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You lot are going to look like a bunch of Mugs when State Man kicks his arse Big Time at Cheltenham...Constitution Hill will fold like a cheap Tent when he comes of the bridle ffs.
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If a race ( Ayr ) is turned into a lottery by all runners not at their best you can have a race that you shouldn't pay great attention to. But I understand why want to read it the way they do.
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*why they
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howard
Fair enough mate , just seems a lot of time & effort put into the thread to go around in unproven circles. May the best horse win |
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Hayden , all I would say in defense of the thread is that most people ( including if you can believe him Mullins ) think State Man is well up to being a better than average winner of the Champion hurdle. I would guess they are right therefore to back a horse to beat him at shorter than 1/2 probably requires you to believe CH is in the Sea Pigeon class. Of course many don't think that and wouldn't have him at Evens.
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We can come back in 2025 Hayden with Constitution a dual champion hurdler with the naysayers asking whats he beat??
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Think the non believers will be almost won over by then geoff with a triple only 2 months away all being well , mind you for the disbelievers no less than 10 lengths will do of course.
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