George's 2022 / 23 Juvenile Hurdler Selection Thread

Wd DG

Lossiemouth seemed to confirm himself as head and shoulders the best 3yo around so far.

Moorgate 2.17 Fontwell a nice any price

Only qualifier wins George
My one to much to do,I thought they would get the fav beat there.

A bit of a form boost for Perseus Way's chance tomorrow, tanglefoot.

The 3YO I Have A Voice looked on the small side alongside his elders and wasn't up to it in open handicap company, having tried to make all and been headed some way from home. He lost places but didn't right away which might offer some hope for longer trips in this sphere, back on better ground.

Running P/L: +2.35 pts

Plenty of action in the juvenile hurdling division with four 3YO races including the Grade 2 Finale Hurdle. Could be an expensive day!

I don't have any qualifiers in the big one, but I have a number in the other races and also one going in open handicap company at Limerick.

Puntastic, 1pt EW @ 66-1, 12.05 Leopardstown
Showman, 1pt EW @ 50-1, 12.05 Leopardstown

I've a couple of qualifiers in this at big prices and both are selected EW.

It looked a good effort by Puntastic when pulling clear with two others (who have both won twice since) over 10f at Redcar (soft) back in early April, an effort that probably wanted marking up given he made his move into the race sooner than the other principals who were ridden more conservatively. He only had one further start for Jedd O'Keefe, when finishing only fourth of five on better ground over 11f at Hamilton in early June, though that form doesn't look too be bad with the winner having gone on to make the frame in a Royal Ascot handicap, and the runner-up having won twice since.

He was returning form over 5 months off when I selected him on his stable / hurdles debut at Fairyhouse in the maiden won by Zarak The Brave, when it's likely that the run was needed and he did shape better on his latest start when finishing 7th of 22 at Navan, where he had today's favourite Tekao ahead of him in third. It could be handicaps will be on the agenda after today, but if he can take another step forward, then not out of the question that he could at least make the frame in this.

Showman was consistent this year on the level without managing to win for Hughie Morrison, while showing himself versatile regarding surface. He's only rated in the 60s, so doesn't face an easy task on this switch to hurdling, but on the plus side, he handles an ease and has joined a yard that had a couple run well above market expectations at Leopardstown yesterday.

Chaos Control, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 12.45 Kempton
Dark Mystery, 1pt EW @ 11-1, 12.45 Kempton

I've three qualifiers in this, Postmark, Chaos Control and Dark Mystery. I'm going to select the two at double-figure prices against the field.

Chaos Control's three wins have come on the AW, including when successful on his stable debut over 12f at Wolverhampton late last month, but he has run well on turf on occasions, including over a mile at Bellewstown in August, when probably shaping better than the bare result from a wide draw.

He wasn't without market support when obliging at the first time of asking for Stewart Edmunds, and hopefully he can keep up the good work for his jumps-orientated yard now switching code.

Dark Mystery had suggested there were races to be won with him back in May when stepped up in trip to 14f at Sandown (g-f),  when given how freely he raced and how the race panned out, he probably did well to only be beaten just over three lengths. He then ran poorly twice for whatever reason, but did come good when winning over 12f at Newbury (good) in August. He then ran just OK in two further runs for Ian Williams.

He's joined a rookie trainer whose first two runners on the AW this month ran well to make the frame, when both like this one were coming off short breaks. This will be his first runner over hurdles, and soft ground for Dark Mystery is a slight concern, but he should at least be fine stamina-wise.

Play By The Rules, 1pt EW @ 18-1, 2.15 Wetherby

I have three quailifers in this, Kincade, Planet Legend and Play By The Rules, and the latter gets the vote at the prices.

I thought he shaped better than his finishing position suggested on what turned out to be his final start for Jim Bolger, over 10.5f at Sligo (g-s) back in May. It's likely the run was needed on his stable debut on the level over 12f at Ffos Las (good) in August, but he was then absent for another three months before making his hurdles debut last month at Exeter (g-s) when finishing third of five in what admittedly was a  steadily-run affair, though the runner-up has since won a class 2 hurdle at Newcastle to give the form a boost. Play By The Rules is entitled to come on for that initial experience and hopefully can give a good account here.

Of my other two qualifiers, Kincade was disappointing when a beaten favourite on his hurdles debut at Musselburgh last month, given he went there fit and without any stamina concerns, though his hurdling did let him down. He clearly needs to improve in that department.

Planet Legend ran some fair races in defeat on the Flat this season, and there was a late market move for him on his hurdling / stable debut last month at Sandown in a class 2 introductory hurdle, but unfortunately for his backers he only got as far as the first hurdle.

Bright Blue, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 3.15 Limerick (5 PLACES)

Bright Blue has already been selected twice on the thread, and after showing some promise on his first two starts over hurdles, it's likely handicaps have been on the agenda following a further couple of qualifying runs.He now switches to open company for his handicap debut, but as he's coming off a two month break and conditions are expected to be testing, he can only be a tentative selection. I think he does want an ease in the ground based on his Flat form, but whether he wants it this testing remains to be seen.

There are a couple of other 3YOs in this, notably Thetys, who was ahead of the selection when they both finished in mid-div at Galway in October. She has since finished 5th of 22 in a Navan maiden won by today's leading Finale Hurdle fancy  Comfort Zone.

Toute Chic 2.15 Wetherby,interesting runner,winner on flat in France failed in two outings over hurdles another chance
GL George with your selections

Good luck tanglefoot.

A tough day for the thread with just over 8 pts lost. Chaos Control went close but it wasn't to be. It was a make or break day for the thread, and with three winning seasons behind me doing this, the reality is I'm staring a losing one straight in the face this time around.

Showman, who was any price ya liked, had the early lead when running out after the second flight.

Puntastic was prominent on what appeared a steady enough pace, so no excuses about where he was positioned, but had been headed just before making a mistake at the last flight and that was him done with. He should find more realistic opportunities in handicaps.

Dark Mystery, who was fresh to post, led until turning into the home straight. He should be all the better for this first run in over 3 months and will probably prefer better ground.

Chaos Control was never too far away and gave it a good shot. He looked to have been handed the race briefly when the eventual winner met the last hurdle wrong, but he couldn't hang on having a hit a low in-running of 1.13.

Play By The Rules jumped big and careful at some of the hurdles, which didn't help, and he wasn't able to go with them up the straight. It's probably worth giving a mention to another of my qualifiers in this, Planet Legend, who was a bit erratic at his hurdles and might not have been on the best of the ground around the inner,  so wasn't disgraced in the circumstances.
It will be interesting to see how this form works out, could be worth keeping an eye on.

Bright Blue got a forward ride but wasn't able to go with them when it mattered.

Running P/L: -5.85 pts

Felt for you with Chaos Control -if my horse is in the lead and the second makes a hash of the last, somehow the second gets up. But if my horse is second at the last looking as if it just needs a good jump to win , it will get it all wrong and fail to get up.

Potentially not a bad fillies-only juvenile hurdle, with the two who were both formerly trained by Sir Mark Prescott looking interesting recruits to this sphere.

Lady Valentine, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 1.20 Doncaster

I've just the one qualifier in this fillies-only juvenile and that's Lady Valentine. She might not have achieved that much when winning a 3-runner contest over 7f at Leicester on quick ground in the summer of last year, but given her physique and greenness, it wasn't unreasonable to think she could go on to better things. As it turned out, she didn't offer much in two further starts as a 2YO for Tom Dascombe, and failed to win in seven starts for Hugo Palmer this season. However, she did run respectably on her last two starts when stepped up in trip to 14f on softish ground, which would augur well for this switch of code.

She has a bit to find on Flat ratings with a few of these, of which the top-rated is Pretending with a mark of 80. She was bought out of Sir Mark Prescott's yard for 44,000 gns, and is an unknown quantity on turf. She finished second over 14f to a useful AW performer at Wolverhampton when last seen in October.

The current short-priced favourite is Pretending's former stablemate Arclight, who ran well in a class 2, 12f handicap at Newmarket on good to soft on her latest start in October, and obviously commands respect having joined the Henderson yard.

Greyval won twice over 12f on the Flat in France, and is another who has joined a respected yard.

Of those with hurdling experience, Eclairant Le Monde's second to The Churchill Lad at Catterick last month, now looks a lot better in light of that one's fine effort in the Finale Hurdle.

Chicago Gal made a satisfactory hurdles debut at Catterick when finishing second to a gelding who subsequently wasn't disgraced under a penalty in class 2 company at Kempton this week. Ardbraccan, who also ran in that Catterick race, having been easy enough to back, only got as far as the first hurdle.

Unfortunately, Lady Valentine didn't enjoy this first experience of hurdling and was beaten after jumping two flights of hurdles. The improved runs on the Flat this season came on easier ground, so softer ground may help, but can only be watched for the time being.

No surprise that one of the ex-Prescott horses obliged from what we knew about them on the Flat, however, Greyval, who has got a bit of size about her and was well backed close to the off, may be the one to take from the race.

Running P/L: -7.85 pts

Tidal Storm, 1pt EW @ 50-1, 12.45 Taunton

I've three qualifiers in this, all making their hurdling debuts, State Legend, Tidal Storm and Major Gatsby, and with the latter having more to prove on the stamina-front, I'll go with Tidal Storm at the prices.

Tidal Storm was having just his second run at 12f when overcoming a tough enough trip and showing a good attitude to prevail at Kempton in August. He might have had excuses in his two runs since on synthetic surfaces, having helped force the pace over 11f in a Racing League at Southwell, and then when never involved under a hold-up ride upped in trip to two miles at Kempton.

This will be Ed Walker's first runner over hurdles, and Tidal Storm has to prove he can win on turf, though on the plus side, his half-brother Cheng Gong did manage to win a low-grade handicap at this track.

George,

Not quite his first - Walker ran a 95 rated flat horse called Copernicus in three novice hurdles with zero success in 2014/15.

If Blueking D'Oroux ran to his French form, he'd have no problems winning this, but the market seems convinced he won't!

Thank you, Anorak. That'll teach me for taking the spotlight writer's word for it!

I only knew because I was once advising an owner that had a couple of horses with Walker in 2015-16, so researched his form at the time.

Wd George good third,got that race wrong fancied the fav

You got the price George...very well played

Cheers.

Yes, Tattcorner, he was generally a 20s shot last night when I looked, and just before posting this morning, he was out to 40s / 50s.
The Betfair SP was shorter than the industry's at the off, so clearly someone was expecting a decent effort.

The market told a tale regarding the fav.
Sadly, Trojan Horse appeared to suffer a fatal injury.

And in a race that took its toll with them finishing well strung out, Fourofakind, who helped make it a test on the sharp end, kept on rolling for second, caught only by the conservatively-ridden shock winner. So Harry Derham evidently getting his early runners very fit.

Running P/L: +1.15 pts

Look forward to reading this thread daily George , really interesting stuff.

Have always had a more than basic interest in the baby hurdle races being myself a big double digits player only as generally most horses can win plus the improvement from one race to another can be more than dramatic , just like 2yo races.


Great thread   

WD George

Cheers DG & Hayden

Your Honor, 1pt EW @ 50-1, 1.22 Punchestown

A maximum field for this 3YO hurdle, in which I have just the one qualifier, Your Honor, who like yesterday's selection is also 50-1 at the time of posting, but I'm not anticipating any significant market move for this one, as he doesn't face an easy task if Flat ratings are any guide, in a race that appears to have some depth to it.

He was in good form at his level in the summer and autumn, winning at Sligo (10f, yielding) in August, and then following a couple of poor runs when he might have had excuses on account of ground and then track position, he returned to form with a win at Killarney (11.5f, soft), before ending his Flat season by finishing second of 18 at Galway (12f, heavy). That latter effort was off a mark of just 63, which makes him one of the lowest-rated off the level in this, but on the plus side he should handle the ground and he knows how to win, so he gets a speculative vote.

Of those with a domestic Flat rating, a number are rated in the 70s, and the top-rated with a mark of 84 is Galway (soft, 8.5f) maiden winner Saraqael, though he didn't offer much in two subsequent starts and has his stamina to prove for this test.

The market is headed by the Willie Mullins-trained French import Sinbad Le Marin, who won a 10f maiden at Chantilly (good) in May on his fourth start, from a subsequent winner. He obviously has to be respected coming from this yard, though does have to prove himself in the conditions; no doubt the market will tell a tale close to the off.

Of those with hurdling experience, Calico was second to Dixon Cove in a Listed race at Aintree on her latest start, and that form received a boost when the winner was only narrowly denied in the Finale Hurdle.

Sir Allen is only rated 68 on the Flat, but the market predicted he was going to run a big race on his hurdling debut at Cork (2m1f, yld-soft) and he only found a well-backed Willie Mullins-trained French import too good. Three of these finished behind him, including Teagarden Jazz, who kept on well for third place under sympathetic handling. Libby finished fourth and is entitled to come on for the experience but needs to if she is to reverse the form.

The other one in the market is Morning Soldier, who finished ahead of Calico when finishing second over C/D in November on his hurdling debut on yielding ground. The winner Nusret has since finished a respectable third behind the very promising Lossiemouth in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown. Morning Soldier has to prove himself on today's deeper ground, though.

A Betfair SP of 171 for Your Honor, who didn't shape too badly in 7th place, as he tried to challenge from mid-div in a race where nothing got into it from behind.

The winner Sir Allen had been surprisingly strong in the betting on his hurdles debut when finishing second, and he backed that effort up here.

Sinbad Le Marin didn't come in for the market support that some of these Mullins-trained juveniles have, though he still ran alright to make the frame.

Running P/L: -0.85 pts

Action Motion, 1pt each-way @ 16-1, 12.27 Cork

I'll take a chance again on Action Motion who was selected when he made his stable & hurdles debut over a furlong further trip at this course last month, when he was never in it but did keep on pleasingly to finish 7th of the 20 runners. This race is open to five-year-olds too, and with a Mullins-trained long odds-on favourite in opposition, it could be Action Motion will be brought along with handicaps in mind, but as he showed sufficient promise on that hurdling debut, a chance is taken EW at the odds.

Very well done

Boom! Well done George B.

WD GB
56 on here

Wd George,would have sworn the fav would win the race.

Cheers guys.

I actually had two qualifiers running today, the other was I Have A Voice, who I had selected 12 days ago when he made his handicap debut against his elders at Wetherby, where he finished comfortably held. I wondered afterwards (in the second post at the top of this page) if he might want a longer trip.

Same trip today but on a stiffer track, however, I wasn't sure about the ground, so left it, but what a revelation he proved to be, made all, galloped on relentlessly.

Oh well, there ya go, they make fools of us sometimes.

But all's well that ends well, and Action Motion built on his promising debut when given a sympathetic ride at Cork last month. Betfair SP of 55-1, so I moved the market with this one

Running P/L: +23.15 pts

George   

Different gravy ,as I have said before .....so many hapless tipster paid for being a poor imitation. They revel in the good days and not a peep about the bad ones ....no cumulative total.

well done George.

Nice one George

Thanks again chaps.

Now for the tricky bit, trying to keep the P/L going in the right direction

Very well done George. Did you notice that Mr Freedom ran second in a handicap at Plumpton? At least he finished well and didn't try to run out as he had done the last twice. I still think he has ability.

Yes sageform, his wins have been on good ground, so maybe they can win another with him on better ground in the spring?

And given his Flat rating of 53, I'd be surprised if they can't exploit that. He's only had one chance on the level for Sheena West, and that was off a break on his stable debut at Windsor, when he didn't run too badly.

A couple of juvenile hurdles today, a decent looking contest to open the card at Fairyhouse and a four-runner affair to open the card at Kempton. I'm going to take a chance on one against the odds-on jolly in the latter.

Virtuoso, 1pt win @ 13-2, 12.20 Kempton

Virtuoso has a bit to find if Flat ratings are any guide but what she may have in her favour is that she evidently handles soft ground and stays well to judge from her success over 14f in an apprentice handicap at Ffos Las in September when making all and keeping on strongly, on what was her first attempt at that trip. Her only subsequent run for Andrew Balding was when disappointing at Southwell over 12f when unpenalised but conditions might not have suited.

She starts out for Donald McCain today having been sold for 14,000 gns, and while there is a concern she may need a stiffer test over hurdles than two miles round Kempton, hopefully the soft ground will prove a leveller.

Regally Blonde is also a qualifier for me in this and she's only rated 2lb inferior to the favourite on the Flat. She won a 13f handicap at Down Royal (good) in July (finished second on the day but was awarded the race at a later date), and showed her versatility regarding going when finishing a fair second over the same C/D on yielding to soft when last seen in September.

She's since been sold for 62,000 gns out of Andy Oliver's yard and makes her debut here for Ben Case. It's a bit disconcerting to see a tongue-tie applied and it remains to be seen how testing she wants the ground, but they've found a realistic opportunity for her hurdles debut.

It was probably a fair fillies' hurdle that Arclight won on her debut for Nicky Henderson at Doncaster (good) last month and she's clearly the one to beat here, but she does have a 7lb penalty to carry and this will be the softest ground she has encountered.

Rank outsider All About Me has offered little in two juvenile hurdles and the only straw to clutch at is that she may appreciate today's softer ground.

Virtuoso, who looked on the small side down at the start alongside her rivals, found herself outclassed and was probably lucky to finish a distant second with Regally Blonde departing the race early.

She's by a sire whose progeny tend to handle soft ground well and given the manner of her Ffos Las win, I was reasonably optimistic of a good run today, but no, got that one wrong.

Running P/L: +22.15 pts

Mr Freedom declared for the 2.50 at Newbury. They have lowered their sights from the Triumph

HEAVY, Waterlogged in places (GoingStick: Chase 4.9, Hurdle 4.7) (INSPECTION Tuesday 8.30am)

Prospects of being on don't sound too promising, sageform.

Already off so I wait to see where they will go. It could dry up a lot in the next 10 days.

sageform, I see Mr Freedom is running today on the flat.

I think he'd be a good thing on grass but the Poly' is an unknown.

Still an even bigger certainty George having lowered his sights from a listed hurdle to a Class 6 flat race!!!. Luckily I had a second bite having taken a very skinny 4.5 this morning. Made my week.

Well done sageform, you said there'd be another win in him.

Depending what the handicapper does there should be at least one more on the flat. He went from an also ran to trotting up in 100 yards today once he was shown daylight.

I am sticking with Scriptwriter today George. Do you have any dark ones to recommend?

Sheena missed a trick by running him this week - off a mark of 53, on what he showed there, he'd have been a good thing in this valuable race at Bath on Good Friday:

TO CLOSE BY NOON ON APRIL 1ST

Total prize fund £26000
Distributed in accordance with Stakes and Prize Money Code
£13608 to the winning horse
The second to receive £6385, the third £3190, the fourth £1596
and the fifth £795

for four yrs old and upwards,
Rated 46-55
(also open to such horses rated 56 and 57; such horses rated 45
and below are also eligible - see Standard Conditions)

ONE MILE THREE FURLONGS abt 137 YARDS (11f abt 137yds)

Good point TheAnorak but a long time to wait. He will win the Fred Winter or whatever they call it if he gets in.

sageform, no, I didn't have any qualifiers running.

Anorak, good spot, I'm sure Sheena will be on the phone Monday, pleading with the handicapper for a 3 or 4lb rise

Puntastic, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 1.22 Punchestown

I've a couple of qualifiers in this handicap for 4YOs, Action Motion, who did the thread a big favour when winning at Cork last time at decent odds having been weak in the market, and Puntastic, who gets the vote today at the prices.

I had a "mark-up" run on the Flat on soft ground for Puntastic last April over 10f at Redcar, when he was one of three to pull clear in a race from which the other two principals would go on to frank the form. Puntastic only had one further start for Jedd O'Keeffe, when he wasn't entirely disgraced on better ground over 11f at Hamilton.

It's likely he was badly in need of his first start over hurdles for Paul Nolan having been absent for over five months, and he hasn't shaped too badly in two further qualifying runs in big fields at Navan and Leopardstown. Hopefully the switch to a handicap offers a more realistic opportunity.

Planet Legend, 1pt win @ 12-1, 1.40 Huntingdon
Ghasham, 1pt win @ 8-1, 1.40 Huntingdon

I've a couple of qualifiers in the this juvenile hurdle and I'm going to go a point win on each.

Planet Legend had been running well on the Flat off marks in the 70s for James Ferguson, prior to switching to Dr Richard Newland for a hurdling campaign. There was a late market move for him on his hurdling debut in a Class 2 Introductory Hurdle at Sandown early in December, but unfortunately for his backers he got as far as the first flight where he unseated his rider. He didn't hurdle well again on his latest start at Wetherby, where he ended up beaten 28 lengths, but given he might also not have been on the best part of the track around the inner, he probably shaped better than the bare result.

It could be a safe round of jumping today will be the priority with an eye on handicaps further down the line, but better ground may help and he has the Flat ability to be competitive here.

Ghasham was a 10f maiden winner at Cork on easy ground for Joseph O'Brien, and it looked a good effort off a mark of 86 on his final start in Ireland at Ballinrobe in July (9.5f, g-y) when finishing third. His first two starts for Ian Williams on the Flat were poor, but he didn't shape too badly on his hurdles debut at Ludlow (soft) last month, despite finishing only 6th of the 8 runners, beaten just under nine lengths. The form received a boost when the third came out and finished a respectable fourth in the Grade 2 juvenile hurdle at Cheltenham on Saturday.

He left the impression at Ludlow that he might want a stiffer test over hurdles, which would be a concern today, particularly on better ground, but as he seems to be steadily finding his form for his new yard, he gets a vote, with that initial hurdling experience behind him and hopefully the addition of cheekpieces  proving beneficial.

You've moved the market -Puntastic now generally 8s and 17/2 and Planet Legend 7s.
However "they know" about Ghasham -out to 11s.
GL

Good Luck today George I don't have much of a view on either of those races but wonder if the Jeff Smith horse, Tropical Talent might be the one at Huntingdon being by Nathaniel.

I won the match bet but neither look much good.

W/D with Planet Legend George, you'll be getting an email form your bookie for taking 12/1! Ghasham provides further evidence that buying horses from J P O'Brien is a very risky business - he's proving to be a very shrewd judge of when to sell and is high on my list of trainers to avoid at the sales.

Apologies George you won the match bet. I was watching Ghasham. Tropical talent might win a small race with more experience.

Thanks Manoleeds, Anorak and sageform.

Puntastic was caught 4-wide for most of the journey but did keep on quite well in the closing stages to close on the principals. It was pointed out in the paddock observations on RTV that he's not the biggest, but there might be a small race in him over hurdles when things pan out more favourably.

Planet Legend, who was generally a 12s-shot earlier this morning, was well backed and ran out a comfortable winner, albeit helped by the evens favourite compromising his chance by nearly losing his jockey at the first flight.

Ghasham, who was very weak in the betting, made the running until before 3-out but was soon left behind. He did plug on and it's looking like he's going to need a stiffer test over hurdles, but as The Anorak points out, he still has to prove that he has trained on for his new yard.

Running P/L: +31.15

WD George

Cheers DG

Rare Middleton, 1pt EW @ 13-2, 1.50 Kempton

I just have the one qualifier in this Grade 2 Adonis Hurdle. Rare Middleton had shaped with plenty of promise when finishing second of 24 in a 10f maiden at the Curragh (yielding) in September, when never too far away and having led a furlong out, was only headed close home by a subsequent premier handicap winner, and fared best of the newcomers. The 10f maiden he then won at Leopardstown (y-s) was a slowly-run affair with the first six home covered by just 1.5 lengths, so as he appeared to stay the 10f well on his debut, it was probably to his credit that he managed to win when the pace scenario might not have suited.

Rare Middleton was subsequently sold for 215,000 gns and got the job done at short-odds on his hurdling debut for Paul Nicholls at Taunton (soft) where he travelled nicely throughout and hurdled fine in the main before winning with more in hand than the winning distance of under a length would suggest.

This is likely to be the quickest ground he has raced on and faces some experienced and useful rivals, but the limitations of this scopey sort have yet to be exposed and he looks an interesting contender.

Rare Middleton impressed the paddock watchers but was easy enough to back. He travelled nicely if a little keen and wide, but couldn't go with the first two where it mattered and had to settle for third place. I think he still has potential to do better so it will be interesting to see where they go next with him.

Running P/L: +31.55

wd George. I did back it place only but Scriptwriter was my choice and he was too bad to be true.

Ghasham, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 4.45 Ludlow

Ghasham ended his time with Joseph O'Brien by running respectably off a mark of 86 in a 9.5f handicap at Ballinrobe in July. His five runs (two Flat, three hurdles) so far for Ian Williams have been poor, so he needs to prove that he has trained on for his new yard, but he is out of a Montjeu mare and he did hint in his first two hurdling starts that he may be worth trying over further. He steps up 5f in trip for his handicap debut in this sphere and his opening mark of 100 would look very workable when compared to what he seemed capable of on the level, but obviously he does have a bit to prove now. However, a chance is taken at the odds in the hope that the combination of handicapping and longer trips can show him in a better light under this code.

One came out so it was 2 places only each-way, not that it mattered as Ghasham, who held every chance in the home straight, didn't see the trip out as well as his elders and had to settle for fourth place.

Running P/L: +29.55

Not many 4yos win off their handicap mark against older horses which is why Mr Freedom did well to win recently. Ever hopeful.

The biggest winner on last year's thread was Gavin at 33-1 (and bigger at Betfair SP), who won a handicap hurdle against his elders at Uttoxeter from 5lb out of the handicap.

Maybe the 2m5f is a big ask for a 4YO at this time of year against their elders. No matter, if I have a qualifier at a price and I think a case can be made for it, I'll be selecting it.

Of course you have to stick to your policy. I don't think that the quality of 3/4yos going hurdling is what it used to be as the AW and overseas buyers are too tempting.

Play By The Rules, 1pt EW @ 28-1, 5.05 Taunton (4 PLACES)

Play By The Rules ran well on occasions for Jim Bolger in Ireland without managing to win, and he was a selection on this thread when he made his hurdles debut at Exeter where he didn't shape too badly in finishing third in albeit what was a steadily-run 5 runner contest. The form has worked out fairly well with the winner having gone in again under a penalty (and runs in the Fred Winter tomorrow), while the runner-up has won twice subsequently.

Play By The Rules has run twice since for a mark, at Wetherby when finishing mid-div on ground that might have been soft enough (which admittedly could be a concern today), and last time at Doncaster on good ground when finishing well-held having not jumped with fluency. He now goes handicapping, steps up in trip to 2m3f and has cheekpieces applied for the first time.

He's been weak enough in the betting this morning but hopefully handicaps can offer him more realistic opportunities, and judging from his Flat form, an opening mark of 93 should be workable.

Well done Sir!

WD George

TOP BOMBING

WD George. Only 4yo in the race.

Nice one George.

Very well done! - the step up in trip & the cheek pieces seemed to help!

Thank you for donating George - Top man

Well done George ....saw the 28's had long gone approaching race time..

Cheers guys.

When he started to wander between the last two, I got a bit concerned he might become another of those famous Taunton run-outs, but thankfully he managed to stay on the course.

I could have done with this one on my ill-fated 100 pts challenge thread, but no, I decided I would keep the juvenile hurdler picks separate.

Good luck at Cheltenham.

15p Rule 4

Running P/L: +58.11 pts

DG - I evidently got some good karma for that

I told ya!!

Action Motion, 1pt EW @ 100-1, 4.50 Cheltenham (6 PLACES)

I said on my other thread that I only had the one qualifier running in this, but having had a proper look, it's actually two. One of them is McTigue, who doesn't look to face an easy take under top weight, especially just 10 days on from a poor run at Kelso, albeit that came in a valuable handicap against his elders.

Which leaves me with Action Motion, who I noted in a 12f low grade handicap at Dundalk in October (when trained by Andy Oliver), when he probably shaped better than the bare result and that he'd be worth a try over further.

As it turned out, he then joined Denis Hogan for a hurdling campaign and having shaped with plenty of promise at Cork when finishing 7th of 20 (and behind Sir Allen & Ludus), he did the thread a big favour when winning back there and turning over a long odds-on shot trained by Willie Mullins; the 3rd and 4th have won since (including Gordons Aura who also runs here).

Action Motion was a bit disappointing on his latest start (when again finishing behind Ludus) when making his handicap debut at Punchestown, where he didn't finish his race off on the front foot. It seemed a steadily-run affair, so maybe he wasn't seen to best effect.

He obviously has a bit to prove after that and is ridden today by an inexperienced amateur (albeit a promising one), but the ground shouldn't been an issue and he's not totally exposed yet under this code.

WD GB
How did i miss that one

Still have a silly e/w Mr Freedom. He has run a lot which some might not like but... Last 3 runs.
Low grade AW flat run over 12 furlongs. Won easily.
Handicap at Warwick off 117. Held up and came through a wall of horses at the last to win going away.
Handicap at Doncaster off 120. Third to Whizz Kid beaten a head and a neck despite a mistake at the last and a very short run in. Would have won easily in another 100 yards.
He is up a pound to 121 today and a fast run competitive race is what he wants imo. There won't be many coming past him from the last if he is still in contention. Cheekpieces first time today
Of the others, Sundial looks intriguing.

Totally gutted to be fifth after Robbie Dunne nearly fell off on the final bend. Best of the British horses and should have been closer.

Brilliant Profit George, still the best..

Well done with the two places, sageform

Billy, after your fantastic day, you are now officially the HR forum's number one.

Action Motion was sent off at massive odds and lived up to market expectations.

Running P/L: +56.11 pts

I had not noticed that you were sixth George. Very well done again. I think that both of your threads illustrate the value to be had for taking the extra places on offer. I suffered from sticking to the standard number of places (4) with both Oscar Elite and Mr Freedom. It will be interesting to see where they go with Mr Freedom next. Will they take advantage of his very low flat mark again on the AW or stay over hurdles?

Apologies, you were not sixth. I misread your post!

Sorry sageform, I could have written that better.

...was sent off at huge odds and dropped out the back of the telly

Mr Freedom should be able to win on turf on the Flat granted a pace to come off

I read an article James Willoughby wrote not that long ago where he researched comparisons between the marks of dual purpose horses and, while acknowledging it's far from an exact science, he reckons around 35lb difference, so using this as a guide:

Mr Freedom 121 over Jumps, 61 on the Flat

He's still got 2 stone in hand on the level!

Monitoring decs for Friday - just the seven W Mullins runners declared in the Triumph!

I've always regarded that 35lb difference theory as rubbish, especially when applied to juvenile hurdlers. I've seen far too many moderate flat performers transformed by eight flights of hurdles into stars. And plenty of top class flat horses that went to pieces and couldn't even match their flat rating over hurdles.

My favourite examples would be Mysilv - who could have been bought for £8k after being beaten in a Nottingham claimer. And Fair Along, who changed hands twice for £6k after AW selling races.

It might be an OK figure as an average, but most horses aren't average.

I don't have a single qualifier in the Triumph. Rare Middleton was entered but it looks like he's heading to Fakenham instead for a £13K to the winner handicap, with Byrony Frost booked for the ride.

The only running in the Triumph that also ran in the Adonis is Scriptwriter, no doubt trying to salvage Milton's £1K each-way ante-post wager.

Apologise, 1pt each-way @ 33-1, 2.25 Musselburgh (4 PLACES)

A competitive field for the final of the Grey Bomber Juvenile Hurdle Series. I have three qualifiers who have been selected previously on the thread - Planet Legend, Freddy Robinson and Apologise - and I'm going to select the latter at the prices.

Apologise is a sizable sort who appealed as the type to win more races when scoring on his handicap debut when stepped up in trip to 11.5f Killarney in October, on what turned out to be his final start for Andrew Slattery.

It has to be said his hurdling campaign so far has been generally disappointing having been a well beaten favourite on his stable debut at Market Rasen in December and then having failed to threaten in three further starts since. However, there was more encouragement on his penultimate run when highly tried and finishing fourth in the Victor Ludorum at Haydock last month, albeit his finishing position owed plenty to others failing to complete and having just kept on from some way back having never been put into the heat of the battle. He has work to do to reverse the form with the second Cianciana but a 16lb pull will hopefully help.

Apologise was weak in the betting and failed to build on that effort when finishing last of four at this track on his latest start over the 1m7.5f trip, having been held up and not knocked about up the home straight.

He clearly has a bit to prove in this sphere but the step up in trip to 2m1.5f may help and given when he won the Flat he was ridden prominently, perhaps he will be kept closer to the pace this time.

* third of four lto

GL George

Thank you DG

A dismal effort from Apologise who was kept closer to the pace this time in mid-div but his hurdling left a lot to be desired and he soon lost his position and was struggling in rear.

Running P/L: +54.11 pts

Fantastic profit at the prices you are playing at George, any profit at this game is bloody hard. Great work..

Thank you, Billy.

Well that's it for another season, and the thread did eventually return a respectable profit for a fourth consecutive season, but had to wait until after the turn of the year to turn things around, which is a little surprising, because as I'm dealing with horses off the Flat from last year, then in theory, you'd expect any advantage to come in the early part of the season when the selections have got the race-fitness and perhaps the the more NH-bred types are either too inexperienced or won't be seen until later on.

The thread ends with a profit of 54.11 points at the early prices / B.O.G, or 64.55 points at Betfair SP after 2% commission. The top-priced winners were Play By The Rules 28-1 (-15p Rule 4 deduction), Action Motion 20-1 and Non Stop 18-1.

Date	Selection	Stake	0dds	Fin Pos	P/L	Betfair SP -2%
04-Jun	Intriguing Lady	1 EW	14	0	-2	-2
01-Jul	Intriguing Lady	1	12	0	-1	-1
10-Jul	Rolypolymoly	1	8	2	-1	-1
15-Jul	The Insider	1	4.5	1	4.5	3.82
24-Jul	Rolypolymoly	1	2.75	1	2.75	1.35
28-Jul	Never No Trouble	1	4	0	-1	-1
18-Aug	Never No Trouble	1	2.5	2	-1	-1
19-Aug	Bright Blue	1 EW	33	0	-2	-2
19-Aug	Grizabella	1 EW	8.5	0	-2	-2
09-Sep	Bright Blue	1 EW	7.5	0	-2	-2
18-Sep	I Have A Voice	1	5.5	0	-1	-1
24-Sep	Exciting News	1	2	1	1.4	1
27-Sep	My Brother Jack	1 EW	50	2	11.5	9.41
01-Oct	Grizabella	1 EW	16	0	-2	-2
06-Oct	Never No Trouble	1 EW	6	3	0.2	-0.11
06-Oct	Intriguing Lady	1 EW	66	0	-2	-2
16-Oct	Methinks	1 EW	66	0	-2	-2
16-Oct	Octopus	1 EW	50	0	-2	-2
29-Oct	Bright Blue	1 EW	12	0	-2	-2
01-Nov	Non Stop	1	18	1	18	25.92
08-Nov	Puntastic	1 EW	22	0	-2	-2
14-Nov	Intriguing Lady	1 EW	25	3	4	1.21
18-Nov	Methinks	1 EW	50	0	-2	-2
20-Nov	Play By The Rules	1 EW	20	0	-2	-2
26-Nov	Tessy Lad	1	2.75	0	-1	-1
26-Nov	Freddy Robinson	1 EW	14	0	-2	-2
27-Nov	Polyphonic	1	4	0	-1	-1
01-Dec	Apologise	1	2.5	0	-1	-1
02-Dec	Sabyinyo	1 EW	10	0	-2	-2
11-Dec	Action Motion	1 EW	100	0	-2	-2
26-Dec	I Have A Voice	1 EW	11	0	-2	-2
27-Dec	Puntastic	1 EW	66	0	-2	-2
27-Dec	Showman	1 EW	50	0	-2	-2
27-Dec	Chaos Control	1 EW	12	2	1.8	2.25
27-Dec	Dark Mystery	1 EW	11	0	-2	-2
27-Dec	Play By The Rules	1 EW	18	0	-2	-2
27-Dec	Bright Blue	1 EW	25	0	-2	-2
29-Dec	Lady Valentine	1 EW	12	0	-2	-2
30-Dec	Tidal Storm	1 EW	50	3	9	0.63
31-Dec	Your Honor	1 EW	50	0	-2	-2
07-Jan	Action Motion	1 EW	20	1	24	59.1
14-Jan	Virtuoso	1	6.5	2	-1	-1
30-Jan	Puntastic	1 EW	16	0	-2	-2
30-Jan	Planet Legend	1	12	1	12	6.27
30-Jan	Ghasham	1	8	0	-1	-1
25-Feb	Rare Middleton	1 EW	7	3	0.4	0.61
02-Mar	Ghasham	1 EW	16	0	-2	-2
13-Mar	Play By The Rules	1 EW	28	1	28.56	17.09
14-Mar	Action Motion	1 EW	100	0	-2	-2
24-Mar	Apologise	1 EW	33	0	-2	-2
					54.11	64.55

Great thread and well done on making a profit . Would be interested to know if you have theories why 19/20 and 20/21 were so much more profitable than 21/22 and 22/23.Have the bookmakers got better in pricing these up?

That's easy to explain Manoleeds, in each of the first two seasons there was a 150-1 winner (and the average Betfair SP of the two worked out at around those odds). I'll have to try and find another next season!

Well done on another successful season George.

Well done George

Cheers 7 and DG.

Just another five weeks or so until the first juvenile hurdle of the 2023 / 24 season.