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No way!!!!
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What the hell happened. EVs Fav only had 6.59% deduction factor. Come on Betfair please explain and ensure it doesn't happen again.
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What price was Impellar, thought deduction was huge!
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i checked when it went loopy and it was just shy of 25% and the price then was 17-18s
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5p in £ deduction with bookies, must be a mistake.
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Imp halved in price on here when broke out stalls & took off down track, 10p R4 by SP's off course brigade.
Scandalous theft |
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the change in price was nothing to do with the reduction %
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Loads of bets are missing from my A/C statement for that race, but P&L looks right.
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Betfair need to put things right on those that backed the winner, they have been very well short changed!
Deduction took the fav down to heavy odds on, market straight back to 5/4. |
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wtf? surely a mistake?
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odds on Fav ran. Doesnt make any sense...
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NO R4 but they tried getting it, PP & BF sports 10s
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How do Betfair come up with the deductions when they first put up the races markets?
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they prob made an error when setting up the market and allocated too high a %, the price movement after it was announced as a non runner had little impact on the % it was already over 24% at that point
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the horse was never 3/1 or thereabouts so the deductions should have been amended earlier this morning when it became clear it was 9/1+
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if it helps, it looks like daq was also much higher than you'd expect, i think they've done about 18%
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Please excuse the after time but I just checked my account, bet the winner at 21 and paid out at 15.86.
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that is a massive deduction for a 5p rule 4
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I can't fathom it at all but elise will know best I'm sure.
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i don't know what happened sparrow, but i know it wasn't manipulation, just something wrong early doors in the market (or something unusual)
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elise, what I didn't understand was when you mentioned betfair and this bit "they prob made an error when setting up the market and allocated too high a %," I was under the impression that the RF was simply based on the bets struck but obviously I'm missing something.
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"I was under the impression that the RF was simply based on the bets struck but obviously I'm missing something."
Doesn't seem to be - every runner has an RF as soon as the (empty) market comes up on site. This from R&R 14.6: "When the market is loaded each horse is given a 'reduction factor', based on a forecast price, which is expressed as a percentage. These reduction factors may be updated periodically at the discretion of Betfair based on trading in the market, but after approximately 15 minutes (approximately 5 minutes for Australian and US markets) from the scheduled 'off' time of a given race, they will be updated only in exceptional circumstances. The current reduction factor percentage for each horse can be viewed on the 'info' page on the Betfair website or by asking the Helpdesk. Accurate reduction factors will only be applied to selections in the event of a non-runner. Once a non-runner is declared each selection in the market will be given an appropriate reduction factor. Reduction factors can be amended at Betfair’s discretion at any time throughout the market life cycle (including post-race)." |
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Thank you, longbridge. Interesting but this seems to be the relevant bit "Accurate reduction factors will only be applied to selections in the event of a non-runner"
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sorry sparrow been cooking dinner - in short, the initial % is set by bf, then it's supposed to be adjusted by the volumes bet, so that way when the market opens there's an immediate reduction figure there in case of an early w/d, for errors
there's supposed to be ongoing monitoring of markets (yes laugh) and they can adjust an obvious mistake if need be, they normally used to have a cut off of around 5 mins before a race at which point it's not getting touched and it's tough titty, or that's how it was when i were a lad |
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@elise
if by "then it's supposed to be adjusted by the volumes bet" you mean "by the prices matched" or "the prevailing offers" they stopped doing that 5+ years ago I think - the RFs used to be continually updated but now it is rare they change until they're needed for an NR. |
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Thanks both of you but strange goings on with that reduction factor it would seem.
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as far as i know it's still adjusting, i have not checked the t&cs to see if they've changed it but the easiest way is prob to check a few in a market and see if they alter at all
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Thanks for the explanations
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they are adj the % until about 5 mins before off, looking at the last 3 races, so for eg in the 6pm first view was 28.84 @5.47pm, at 5.55 it's 30.77, encouraged went 31.25 to 29.64, bearaway 13.8 to 13.76, tiny changes on the remainder
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kem 5.58 to 6.18pm
L 20.17 to 33.78 TTB 48.96 to 27.6 FB 14.42 to 18.84 HL 5.43 to 12.25 Z 11.01 to 7.54 |
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southwell sry not kem
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looking at the 1850 Sthl now to see if they are changin - if they are it's something I have not noticed at any time recently.
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if you look at the 1.10pm wolvs 2moro, £54 matched and you can see many have nothing yet but they've all been set an initial rf
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Yes, seeing big changes - Captain Lara 9.67% -> 18.27% between 1829 and 1832
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so this impeller today, in the stalls it was 24%, and within the 5 mins to off that's not going to change, however the question is how did it get to 24%? i didn't see the market earlier esp when it was set up, but something may have been wrong with its initial % and it never corrected, or maybe it was set at something totally nuts and came down to 24%, either way the bf % was noting like its true price in the market at any time it appears
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Looks like one you just beec to take on the chin.
Cheers for all the input. |
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Need
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4:20 Haydock is another case in point.
Justcallmepete only traded at 4.5 or less reduction factor 10% last night. Withdrawn this morning reduction factor 30%. Reduction factor all over the place on the other runners. |
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I couldn't complain about the early market betting as you leave yourself wide open on betting so early.
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With Rule 4 you know what the deduction is based on.
The reduction factor seems to be any number plucked out of the air. An explaination would be nice. |