Forums
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
FBS
18 May 22 14:16
Joined:
Date Joined: 06 Sep 03
| Topic/replies: 295 | Blogger: FBS's blog
No way!!!!
Pause Switch to Standard View Ayr 14:10 Impelleer 24.5% reduction!!!
Show More
Loading...
Report Unlucky Loser May 18, 2022 2:20 PM BST
What the hell happened. EVs Fav only had 6.59% deduction factor. Come on Betfair please explain and ensure it doesn't happen again.
Report stewarts rise May 18, 2022 2:27 PM BST
What price was Impellar, thought deduction was huge!
Report elise May 18, 2022 2:28 PM BST
i checked when it went loopy and it was just shy of 25% and the price then was 17-18s
Report stewarts rise May 18, 2022 2:29 PM BST
5p in £ deduction with bookies, must be a mistake.
Report shoddypotatoes May 18, 2022 2:30 PM BST
Imp halved in price on here when broke out stalls & took off down track, 10p R4 by SP's off course brigade.

Scandalous theft
Report elise May 18, 2022 2:32 PM BST
the change in price was nothing to do with the reduction %
Report bettinghelp May 18, 2022 2:32 PM BST
Loads of bets are missing from my A/C statement for that race, but P&L looks right.
Report FBS May 18, 2022 2:33 PM BST
Betfair need to put things right on those that backed the winner, they have been very well short changed!
Deduction took the fav down to heavy odds on, market straight back to 5/4.
Report Trident May 18, 2022 2:34 PM BST
wtf? surely a mistake?
Report Trident May 18, 2022 2:35 PM BST
odds on Fav ran. Doesnt make any sense...
Report shoddypotatoes May 18, 2022 2:35 PM BST
NO R4 but they tried getting it, PP & BF sports 10s
Report FBS May 18, 2022 2:48 PM BST
How do Betfair come up with the deductions when they first put up the races markets?
Report elise May 18, 2022 2:53 PM BST
they prob made an error when setting up the market and allocated too high a %, the price movement after it was announced as a non runner had little impact on the % it was already over 24% at that point
Report FBS May 18, 2022 3:18 PM BST
the horse was never 3/1 or thereabouts so the deductions should have been amended earlier this morning when it became clear it was 9/1+
Report elise May 18, 2022 3:23 PM BST
if it helps, it looks like daq was also much higher than you'd expect, i think they've done about 18%
Report the dealer May 18, 2022 3:43 PM BST
Please excuse the after time but I just checked my account, bet the winner at 21 and paid out at 15.86.
Report foxy top May 18, 2022 4:02 PM BST
that is a massive deduction for a 5p rule 4
Report sparrow May 18, 2022 4:05 PM BST
I can't fathom it at all but elise will know best I'm sure.
Report elise May 18, 2022 4:06 PM BST
i don't know what happened sparrow, but i know it wasn't manipulation, just something wrong early doors in the market (or something unusual)
Report sparrow May 18, 2022 4:37 PM BST
elise, what I didn't understand was when you mentioned betfair and this bit  "they prob made an error when setting up the market and allocated too high a %,"  I was under the impression that the RF was simply based on the bets struck but obviously I'm missing something.
Report longbridge May 18, 2022 4:53 PM BST
"I was under the impression that the RF was simply based on the bets struck but obviously I'm missing something."

Doesn't seem to be - every runner has an RF as soon as the (empty) market comes up on site.

This from R&R 14.6:

"When the market is loaded each horse is given a 'reduction factor', based on a forecast price, which is expressed as a percentage. These reduction factors may be updated periodically at the discretion of Betfair based on trading in the market, but after approximately 15 minutes (approximately 5 minutes for Australian and US markets) from the scheduled 'off' time of a given race, they will be updated only in exceptional circumstances. The current reduction factor percentage for each horse can be viewed on the 'info' page on the Betfair website or by asking the Helpdesk.
Accurate reduction factors will only be applied to selections in the event of a non-runner. Once a non-runner is declared each selection in the market will be given an appropriate reduction factor. Reduction factors can be amended at Betfair’s discretion at any time throughout the market life cycle (including post-race)."
Report sparrow May 18, 2022 5:06 PM BST
Thank you, longbridge.  Interesting but this seems to be the relevant bit "Accurate reduction factors will only be applied to selections in the event of a non-runner"
Report elise May 18, 2022 5:30 PM BST
sorry sparrow been cooking dinner - in short, the initial % is set by bf, then it's supposed to be adjusted by the volumes bet, so that way when the market opens there's an immediate reduction figure there in case of an early w/d, for errors

there's supposed to be ongoing monitoring of markets (yes laugh) and they can adjust an obvious mistake if need be, they normally used to have a cut off of around 5 mins before a race at which point it's not getting touched and it's tough titty, or that's how it was when i were a lad
Report longbridge May 18, 2022 5:36 PM BST
@elise

if by

"then it's supposed to be adjusted by the volumes bet" you mean "by the prices matched" or "the prevailing offers" they stopped doing that 5+ years ago I think - the RFs used to be continually updated but now it is rare they change until they're needed for an NR.
Report sparrow May 18, 2022 5:38 PM BST
Thanks both of you but strange goings on with that reduction factor it would seem.
Report elise May 18, 2022 5:40 PM BST
as far as i know it's still adjusting, i have not checked the t&cs to see if they've changed it but the easiest way is prob to check a few in a market and see if they alter at all
Report the dealer May 18, 2022 5:51 PM BST
Thanks for the explanations
Report elise May 18, 2022 5:57 PM BST
they are adj the % until about 5 mins before off, looking at the last 3 races, so for eg in the 6pm first view was 28.84 @5.47pm, at 5.55 it's 30.77, encouraged went 31.25 to 29.64, bearaway 13.8 to 13.76, tiny changes on the remainder
Report elise May 18, 2022 6:20 PM BST
kem 5.58 to 6.18pm

L 20.17 to 33.78
TTB 48.96 to 27.6
FB 14.42 to 18.84
HL 5.43 to 12.25
Z 11.01 to 7.54
Report elise May 18, 2022 6:21 PM BST
southwell sry not kem
Report longbridge May 18, 2022 6:31 PM BST
looking at the 1850 Sthl now to see if they are changin - if they are it's something I have not noticed at any time recently.
Report elise May 18, 2022 6:32 PM BST
if you look at the 1.10pm wolvs 2moro, £54 matched and you can see many have nothing yet but they've all been set an initial rf
Report longbridge May 18, 2022 6:34 PM BST
Yes, seeing big changes - Captain Lara 9.67% -> 18.27% between 1829 and 1832
Report elise May 18, 2022 6:41 PM BST
so this impeller today, in the stalls it was 24%, and within the 5 mins to off that's not going to change, however the question is how did it get to 24%? i didn't see the market earlier esp when it was set up, but something may have been wrong with its initial % and it never corrected, or maybe it was set at something totally nuts and came down to 24%, either way the bf % was noting like its true price in the market at any time it appears
Report the dealer May 18, 2022 11:51 PM BST
Looks like one you just beec to take on the chin.

Cheers for all the input.
Report the dealer May 18, 2022 11:51 PM BST
Need
Report Ell May 21, 2022 1:56 PM BST
4:20 Haydock is another case in point.
Justcallmepete only traded at 4.5 or less reduction factor 10% last night.
Withdrawn this morning reduction factor 30%.
Reduction factor all over the place on the other runners.
Report sparrow May 21, 2022 2:09 PM BST
I couldn't complain about the early market betting as you leave yourself wide open on betting so early.
Report Ell May 21, 2022 4:47 PM BST
With Rule 4 you know what the deduction is based on.
The reduction factor seems to be any number plucked out of the air.
An explaination would be nice.
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com