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28/1 on here Noble ****
28/1 on here Noble ****
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Replies: 68
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of course the smaller you make the jumps the more owners tempted to run,you wouldnt have dreamt of running eclair surf in national 20 yrs ago with his jumping
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they had'nt up to now,what ITV supossed to say then?
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Mr Magoo - here's no 'computer glitch' here with the SPs. Betfair's systems were working as intended. Someone just placed a huge bet at BFSP on Noble Y eats. At the off, this gets matched against all the outstanding offers, taking lower and lower prices until the order is filled. If there isn't much liquidity on the market, the SP will be very low as a result.
I don't really understand this explanation. I mean if I was backing Noble Yea($ I wouldn't have been asking for a price that low, in any circumstances, and I don't believe real people would have chased the price down like that. So who was taking lower and lower prices, without checking bookmaker prices? Bots? |
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Its not about "people" taking lower and lower prices, as I said earlier there was a 3k bet left at bsp. This would take all the prices down until the 3k is matched at whatever price, in this case to 29. somthing.
The 3k bet was too big to accomodate the liquidity available, the backer was either unaware this would happen or wasnt bothered! |
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So somebody has offered lays at all prices down to 29.0 on the assumption it would be possible to back at higher prices with the bookmakers?
Seems a bit implausible to me, as that strategy would hardly ever work with the Grand National Market where prices on the exchange get higher compared to the bookmaker market the nearer one gets to off time. |
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You are totally missing the point!!
I'm out |
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I agree with DIFERENT GRAVY.
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Very helpful, I appreciate I must be being a bit dense about this
 The point I am missing is... the exchange has to find a way of providing a BSP so just keeps lowering the price until it can? |
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It's not that people were asking for a low price, they were offering it. If that lower price was better than the 'raw' bfsp market, sp backers will benefit from those offers.
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In this case, yes. In other cases it just keeps extending the price until the SP is resolved. Depends which side the money is on in the SP market.
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wonder if someone had a big position cashed out by accident somehow,
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iirc under the old system, you could get unmatched offers cancelled at the start which were better than the returned bfsp. so now those offers will get filled in if they beat the base bfsp calculation. it's weighted to benefit backers, which is fair enough I guess.
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screaming from beneaththewaves 10 Apr 22 09:53
Unlikely, Mr Magoo. If it had been showing a very low BSP estimate, the bots would surely have seized on it to lay it. It must have been a very-last-second bet. But I admit I'm only guessing here. ------------- screaming from - Another possibility is that the 'Lump' on Winner Noble Y - was placed in the Main Market (at REQUESTED far Higher Odds, of course) - But - With the Take SP' OPTION Selected When the Race was 'OFF' - Then the 'Lump' had to be TRANSFERRED into the Betfair SP Market - via the, aforementioned, 'SP Reconciliation' Process - Thus resulting in the Low SP - and with there being a Far Greater Amount of Money 9fromm ALL runners) having t be Transferred/Reconciled that could explain the earlier mooted Longer 'Suspended' at the Start |
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Was that a hedge and the 3k backer is in a 66k and comm hole against isp?
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Only weird thing that comes to mind for me would be a prerace trader on a large lay to back using a 'Take BSP' option if not matched as a getout. Maybe he lost his internet connection a few minutes before the off, it happens. Also if he follows trends of market moves for certain trainers, some of Emmets horses have been known to take extremely large late drifts...
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I see what you mean now, onlooker.
Yes. That makes excellent sense. |
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On the other hand ... Wouldn't a lumpy 'Take SP' option on a bet in the main market also affect the likely SP as shown in the pre-race price info?
But I admit, I'm guessing once again. |
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If that was the case the "Projected Betfair Starting Price" would be complete rubbish and could be anything.
Also that would be open to manipulation by anyone who knows that info. Would make you wonder who could benefit from this ? |
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Projected SP - which indicates what the SP would be if the market were to suspend now, this is also known as the 'Near Price' calculation.
... The Near Price is calculated using all of the available money on the site at SP as well as matching money on the same selection in the Exchange. https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/FAQs_projectedOdds.html __________________ I can't see anywhere on that page an explanation of how 'Take SP' bets in the main Exchange market are accounted for in calculating the projected SP. That's not to say that the explanation isn't in fact there, and it might just that my brain isn't big enough to grasp it. But on the face of it, there might - might - be scope to manipulate the projected SP via cancelling a Take SP bet at the last moment. |
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Agree with your Post - screaming -
Doubt that Ell's suggestion is a Possible scenario. Why? - well - For the 'Projected SP' Price o take into Account ALL the Money available in the MAIN Market - as well as SOLELY in the Betfair SP Market - Then then 'Projected SP' Price would be 'JUMPING ABOUT like a Yo-YO' (with every Automatic 1 second Refresh - as the Money Available in the MAIN Market CONSTANTLY Fluctuated due to Matched Bets - New Offers - Cancelled Backs & Lays ..... YET - The 'Projected SP' is Mostly/Often STATIC on many runners - and for up to Minutes - Not Seconds. |
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^ add - whereas the Betfair SP Market is far, far, Quieter
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@screaming
"Wouldn't a lumpy 'Take SP' option on a bet in the main market also affect the likely SP as shown in the pre-race price info?" - no, because the "if unmatched take SP" money isn't accounted for in either of the BSP projections @onlooker "For the 'Projected SP' Price to take into Account ALL the Money available in the MAIN Market - as well as SOLELY in the Betfair SP Market" It does - if you want to see the difference, edit your settings to show both the "Near" and "Far" projected SP return, so you can see what would be the price using just money at SP and what it would be including the money in the main market. |
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no, because the "if unmatched take SP" money isn't accounted for in either of the BSP projections
Thanks for that, longbridge. As I said subsequently, it's what I suspected after reading Betfair's explanations properly, but it's good to have it confirmed. So, now we know what happened. A Take SP bet with no minimum price stipulated is responsible for what happened. (As plenty of cleverer posters than me had explained earlier in the thread.) |
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I don't think there is any way to stipulate a minimum price with a 'Take SP' bet (unlike a 'straight' SP bet)
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That's right. You can't.
I just meant that by clicking "Take Sp If Unmatched", the punter effectively left himself open to taking a 28/1 SP, because he couldn't stipulate a minimum price. I phrased it badly. |
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Surely somebody took bets at 80s or so and found
they had a hole in their book and took whst was available last minute to balance out, driving down price? No chance for it to go back out before off. I assume it drifted after the off? |
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Where would you see a 3K wanting to take BFSP ?
Supposition ? |
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Then then 'Projected SP' Price would be 'JUMPING ABOUT like a Yo-YO'
This would be the case if there was a big difference in back & lay amounts at SP , not if they were roughly the same. You can't cancel an SP bet but you could place a back or lay at SP to effectively cancel it, near to the off time. Could this method be used to manipulate the projected SP and cause a freak SP to reoccur ? |
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"You can't cancel an SP bet but you could place a back or lay at SP to effectively cancel it, near to the off time."
I cannot immediately see how that would work, given SP Lay bets are to liability not stake; could you give an example of what you mean? (FWIW I think the concensus here is right - someone placed a big bet at a price that never matched with "Take BSP" ticked which then smashed the SP down) |