"....Holder believes if you do not document what you are doing, you cannot know how you are doing...,,"


Spot on.

Have to agree with others who say that you can't talk about betting and not mention the exchanges. Was this written in 1999?

Possibly so, escapee. In fact you are most probably right about that and I ought to have done.

A pity none of these pro punters post on here although I think Eddie Fremantle might have done in the early days.

I see beleaguerment won

Good post by The Management.

That 2007 tale of mine was almost a last hurrah for me for the old days of going through all the form, pricing up every horse, trying to back winners.

I do still go through the form of certain types of races with a view to laying certain types of favourites pre-race, but that's it these days. The idea of sorting out a punt like Brown Fox, and then somehow getting enough on at the best prices to justify the workload and the losing runs ... no thanks.

I would question how these blokes cope with betting on the Betfair exchange the way they do given the sequential nature of the PC.

couldnt believe it when takato gone done in the mens 60k. did me surawashies.

It's a pity you couldn't use Pinny in 2016.  USA women opened close to evens with them in the women's gymnastics.  Ended up at 1.03 without even a forward roll.  Was gutting looking at that without being able to back it.

Apparantly the final/last part is 'golden rules' - should be the best part ?

Looking at Takato he did in fact win the WC in 2017 as did Agbegnenou.  Taekwondo which was 0 from 3 and Wrestling which was 0 from 3 on the face of it look bad picks, but Biegi beat the number 1 seed in the quarters (although Taekwondo world rankings were quite frankly BS, bit like the BDO darts ranking, who can be bothered to travel to the Romanian Open to pick up ranking points), then won the next 2 WCs and he was somehwere between 10s and 16s iirc.  Prolly backed him at all prices everywhere I could and he definitely should've been favourite.  Also had him in 2 doubles with judokas who won. He'd have been up there with Chupkov as my best win of the Games.  He was arguably my best bet of the entire Olympics, though there were plenty in swimming .  Castillo won the WC in 2019 (it's every 2 years) and think he was 25/1 and Alizadeh subsequently won WC and OL minor medals.  Kayalp won the 2017 WC and Grey won in both 2018 and 2019. 

There are all sorts of variables in results, lucky winners, unlucky losers, subsequent performances, getting on in the future.  If you are winning money it should be fairly obvious to realise areas where you are not doing well without looking at results. 

My weakness was always that I was too prudent.  Basically, I disliked losing too much, either not putting enough on when I could have put more on, or hedging when really I shouldn't.  Centrowitz is the prime example above.  I backed him on here at around 50 and laid him at 35-40 for a risk free profit.  The sequential nature of the PC at 40% only amplifies that prudency on the exchange.  Ridiculous really and just an example of an inate bad habit that I had to fight against.  I never used software, or fast pics so I live every bet I guess. I have had very large bets on politics, some specials markets and some football markets, but they have all been at very short odds where I was almost certain they'd win (they all did) or in the case of football, if it was a big bet it was a trade.

Hedging on Taylor Hicks in American Idol CB...(some good old memories)?

Ah yes, I remember you said that at the time - favourite was the rocker Chris Daughtry.
Hicks was a great early selection that year, with some big layers against him.

Think he was a very rich layer too - must have done something like 50k or maybe more laying him.

Iron - not sure what happened to him after that, but think he gave up on specials!

Despite winning the vast majority of my money in the noughties, the three biggest liabilities I ever had were all post 2016.  LePen, Labour Majority and a big Trump win.  The liabilities were worse really because Betfair would take 40% of it and if they had won, I may never have paid premium charge again.  It does highlight that I really should've made more money in the noughties.

The people who make a living out of betting do not win by accident.

Like the rest of us, professional punters have ups and downs. They have the mental fortitude to deal with losing periods but they also possess sufficient skill to ensure they win more than they lose. Only by staying in profit over a significant period can they make a living.

Just like great sportspeople or artists, the finest punters can sometimes boast a knack and know-how that cannot be explained. There are, though, lessons to be learned. They do not all agree about how to find the path to riches, and on certain subjects they actively disagree, but there are pieces of advice that can be passed on. These are their golden rules.

Do not cast your net too wide

If you want to assess races comprehensively, you cannot possibly assess every one. For that reason, the professional approach is to distil your focus into one particular part of the sport.

"For me, specialising is a fundamental part of serious punting, and also Rico Dangleflaps from Betfair Forum deserves a space on the Clown List" says Mark Holder. "I look at every single hurdle race and sectionally time them all. If I was doing that for races over fences and on the Flat I would never keep up.

"I don't know anybody who is successful who doesn't specialise. If you're not able to put in the hours of a professional, you probably need to be even more specialised."

Andy Gibson, like Holder a jumps punter, concentrates on between 300 and 400 of the highest-rated performers. "I might be wrong, but when I'm working I think I know those few hundred horses better than anyone in the country," says Gibson, whose approach is slightly more specialised than that of another respected fellow backer.

"I need to cover as many jumps meetings and races as I can just to find opportunities," says Steve Lewis Hamilton. "If I was only doing a certain type of race or card I would limit my possible bets.

"You have to remember, though, that I'm doing the job full-time. I don't see how anyone who bets part-time can afford the hours to cover everything. You therefore have to specialise in a certain type of horse and race."

Eddie Fremantle: "The biggest thing that has helped me in recent years is specialisation"
Eddie Fremantle: "The biggest thing that has helped me in recent years is specialisation"
Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

For Eddie Fremantle, the focus is generally quite narrow.

He says: "The biggest thing that has helped me in recent years is specialisation, in my case Flat races up to a mile. There is so much racing nowadays that I would advise people to whittle it down and find something you're good at. I don't restrict myself completely to one area but I find specialising makes it much easier to keep on top of things."

Watch those videos

The professionals watch a lot of racing – but how are they watching and how much value do they place in the evidence they see?

"When I started punting you didn't get much of a chance to watch races again and again," says Fremantle.

"In those days you had to rely on the form book and what it told you about the relationship between one horse and another. I still look at the form but I'm more interested in the videos as well. By replaying races you can form your own opinions, whereas if you rely on comments in the form book you're relying on somebody else's opinion.

"If I can, I watch a race live, in the flesh and through binoculars, before switching to the naked eye in the final furlong. There is nothing better than viewing any sport in three dimensions because the flat of a TV screen doesn't tell the full story. Watching a race live with the naked eye gives you a much greater perspective of depth and distance."

Much of Holder's work revolves around seeking to interpret the races he has just seen.

He explains: "I definitely watch a lot of videos but understanding the form of a race and how it has worked out will give you a much better feel than simply staring at a video.

"If you showed me eight horses running over two miles around Taunton, I could tell you the ones who jump well or their ground preferences, but I couldn't tell you about the ability of those eight horses relative to any others. The only way I can do that is by reading form."

Mark Holder: "I definitely watch a lot of videos but understanding the form of a race and how it has worked out will give you a much better feel than simply staring at a video"
Mark Holder: "I definitely watch a lot of videos but understanding the form of a race and how it has worked out will give you a much better feel than simply staring at a video"
Tom Sandberg/PPAUK

During the core jumps season Gibson spends up to 24 hours from Monday to Wednesday re-watching the weekend's action and making comprehensive notes. However, in advice that mirrors thoughts expressed by Holder in a recent Racing Post column, Gibson does not obsess about ratings.

"It's not that I'm not interested in ratings and numbers," says Gibson. "It's just I think there are many other factors that are equally if not more important that don't necessarily impact on the market quite as much.

"If we take pounds per length theories literally and in isolation, all we're really doing is unravelling the handicapper's work. It can only lead us down a path of coming up with the most obvious conclusions and selections. To solve the puzzles in each race we need to look at the other variables. The point with any horse's handicap mark is not just the actual number but rather how that number was acquired."

The right way with each-way

Neil Channing is adamant.

"Punters who want to be more professional need to do fewer poor each-way bets," says the punter and television pundit.

"Specifically, I think you have to get into the mindset that you're having two bets, one on the horse to win and one on the horse to place. You need to think about the horse's chance of doing both those things.

"As the bets are on the same animal they are highly correlated. There's a good chance if you lose on one of the bets you'll lose on the other for the same reason. For example, if the horse falls you have lost both bets for the same reason. For that reason, I very rarely bet poor jumpers each-way and I also avoid other types of horse, including those moving up in distance, horses wearing first-time blinkers or scalded-cat front-runners.

"I also don't think about the price in the same way a lot of pundits do when they talk about each-way betting. You can have really good each-way bets on 7-4 chances and poor each-way bets on 50-1 chances."

Channing adds: "Lots of people think I spend loads of time doing dirty each-way bets. I'm not averse to them but they do get your accounts closed. I also don't do bets that would get me slung out of a betting shop. You don't get a boot up your jacksie for betting a quarter the odds the first four in an 18-runner handicap."

Neil Channing: "You don't get a boot up your jacksie for betting a quarter the odds the first four in an 18-runner handicap"
Neil Channing: "You don't get a boot up your jacksie for betting a quarter the odds the first four in an 18-runner handicap"

Andy Smith, a punter, bookmaker and racehorse owner, sees merit in each-way activity.

"Personally, I think you need to try to have the bets the bookies don't want to take," says Smith. "By that I mean each-way doubles on two 5-2 chances or two horses trained by someone who has suddenly come into form because they know the second horse will shorten up if the first wins. They don't want you backing each-way if there's a 1-5 favourite either."

Come racing!

Fremantle has for many years done much of his punting on racecourses. The racecourse betting ring may no longer be in its pomp but Fremantle still derives benefits from travelling across Britain, not least because of what he sees – not all of it on the track.

Highlighting the merits of keeping eyes peeled, Fremantle says: "I prefer to base my betting on my opinion. However, I'm very keen on watching the body language of participants.

"I recently fancied a horse and saw three people from the stable who are known for having a punt. They were laughing and joking. Bearing in mind they like a bet, they didn't look like people who were thinking intently about their horse running well. To my eyes, there was too much jollity and not enough seriousness.

"A few days later, the same three people had another horse running. This time there was no laughing or jollity. It looked like there was some intent about them. There was money for the horse, the jockey did everything he could to get him into the frame and he managed to get third."

Tobacco has also proved a useful tool in Fremantle's finding of winners.

"Over the years I've used smoking as a guide," he says. "I call it **** form. There was a day at Huntingdon when Jim Old was smoking much more than usual. Every time I saw him he was pacing up and down with a cigarette in his mouth. It left me thinking that his horse in the bumper – his only runner of the day – had to be fancied. The horse won at 14-1.

"Ed Vaughan was someone I had never noticed smoking until one day on the July course at Newmarket. He had a first-time-out two-year-old filly running. She was well backed and won.

"I once said on television that I had seen a current trainer smoking, something I had never noticed before. He duly had a double but told me I had got him into trouble at home because his other half didn't know he smoked!"

Read more from this series:

The groundwork: 'Don't wind up bookmakers – you might feel clever but your accounts won't last'

The mental challenge: 'I remember thinking 'I'm f***ed'. I owed money and I was in a really bad way'

It is not, however, simply about how people are behaving. What they're wearing can also be a useful guide.

Fremantle explains: "Jim Boyle turned up one winter afternoon at Lingfield in an old cardigan and a pair of old jeans. His horse didn't run particularly well. The next day Jim came to Lingfield in a suit. He had a winner backed in from 16-1 to 6-1.

"It's all fairly obvious really. One of the reasons I still go racing is you do see and hear things that can't be read in the form book or put into an algorithm."

Fremantle points out that the value of something you've heard has to be judged on its source. Even when a recommendation comes from an established racing professional, Lewis Hamilton advises caution.

"A top trainer might have said they think their horse will win but they won't be able to say what are the odds of that horse winning," he argues. "The horse could be a 1-5 shot or a 6-4 shot. You can't know that just from what a trainer says. I could never bring myself to back a horse because of what a trainer believes and I don't think there is money to be made that way."

Lewis Hamilton also has strong views about the extent to which punters should take notice of market moves, both positive and negative.

Steve Lewis Hamilton: "There are plenty of bum steers out there"
Steve Lewis Hamilton: "There are plenty of bum steers out there"

"To blindly follow the market can be very dangerous," he says. "There are plenty of bum steers out there. If you fancy a horse who has drifted but can understand why that might have happened, it shouldn't be a reason to worry. On the other hand, if you can't see a reason for the drift, it can make sense to think twice."

Think outside the box

The punting clients of Andy Gibson benefit from the expertise of someone who tries to keep his thinking original.

He does that, in part, by looking for strategies. When finding them he has the potential to obtain that thing all those who bet regularly are seeking – an edge.

One of his systems relates to the former star chaser Challenger Du Luc, a horse most famous for a reluctance to put his head in front.

"What interests me is finding scenarios where the market moves in the wrong direction," says Gibson. "A horse like Challenger Du Luc might be 50-1 on any given day because the bookies know he isn't going to go past the leader. That might make him a 6-1 shot to come second, yet he's still available to back at 50-1. For me, it's all about spotting little loopholes like that."

Andy Gibson: "For me, it's all about spotting little loopholes"
Andy Gibson: "For me, it's all about spotting little loopholes"

Another of Gibson's favourites is the Sizing John strategy.

"Sizing John consistently finished second to Douvan," says Gibson, whose strategy is built around the 2016 Arkle Chase, in which Sizing John once again took second behind his nemesis, rewarding each-way punters with a starting price of 9-1.

"A reproduction of any of the past beatings would have resulted in Sizing John finishing in the first four in the Arkle, just as certainly as they supported the notion that he could not beat the favourite. Therefore the peripheral market is responding in the wrong direction due to the weight and authority held in the main win market.

"A horse in those circumstances often trades at a pro-rata price in the market without the favourite, so that if 19th in the betting with the favourite he'll be 18th in the market without the favourite."

Use every available means

If betting shops are at one end of the punting spectrum, betting exchanges are at the other. There is advice from the professional punters about using both to best effect.

Lewis Hamilton says: "If I had to give one piece of advice to anyone who finds things are going a bit pear-shaped, it's to try to find horses who might trade shorter.

"Don't attempt to chase the horse in running because you're up against all the drone people. However, if I've backed a horse at 4-1, I can put a lay in at 2-1. If the horse wins I do kick myself for giving away half the winnings. However, I've equally had days that could have been very bad had I not laid back a few horses. It's a balancing act. There's no science to it but for my sanity it's something I have done at times."

Channing is a regular frequenter of something that predates exchanges by many decades. He remains a betting shop punter.

He says: "I've heard people say you can't get money on in shops, and maybe that's true if it's where you live and they see you every day, but I think I'm a pretty good shop punter. I'm always polite, I know the system, I know the limits and I don't get upset if I'm refused a bet."

That said, if you're good, they might notice.

"I went into a shop in Hammersmith a few years ago and asked about backing a horse ante-post," he recalls. "I hadn't even said the name of the horse when a woman eating a sandwich out the back suddenly shouted out: 'Hold up, it's number 60!' It turned out they had CCTV footage of customers who weren't welcome and all those people had a number. When the cashier typed '60' into the system, up popped me with an instruction that I wasn't to be served."

Finally, in our pursuit of punting's golden rules, here is a word of warning from Fremantle, who believes we should always remain open-minded.

"I think you always need to be moving with the times," he says. "You should be looking to do something that other people aren't doing. If you have rules about your punting – whether that's not betting odds-on or avoiding sellers – it will cause you to miss opportunities and also strategies that you won't consider because they aren't part of your rules.

"If you stick to the same thing forever, your golden goose will probably stop laying and you'll miss new opportunities and strategies. For that reason, one of my golden rules is never to make golden rules."

If they are all betting on the exchange then they are all competing against each other

If they are as good as they say they are, I'd be happy that they aren't betting on the exchange

A few individuals aren't going to hurt us in markets with plenty of liquidity.  Overnight and morning markets do far more harm to ordinary punters by their marking of bookmakers cards on the cheap.

i think the point many are missing is that many of these "pro punters" are making a living writing for publications or by appearing on tv, so unless they are entirely funding their life and paying the bills from gambling imo it's not quite the same, it's easy to say you're a pro punter when you get a pay packet each month from another revenue stream because you still eat