look its all bollocks!! if timeform was accurate there'd be no bookies!! what's their strike rate - over the course of a year maybe 30-35%? and the ROI probably substantially less because their top 2 rated are regularly overbet..

and don't get me started on handicappers - the differential between Irish and British form is all you need to know there!

you can show me a 100 stopwatches and I'm not going to believe for one second (!) that Constitution Hill (winner of a p2p and 3 novice hurdlers) would beat Honeysuckle (unbeaten in 1 p2p and 16 hurdles, many of them Grade 1s including 2 Champion Hurdles at Festival) over a 2m trip with the 7lb allowance, now that opinion may change come next March (still wouldn't surprise me if Honeysuckle was retired beforehand) but for now one has potential to be very good, the other is the best National Hunt mare since Dawn Run and very possibly even better than she was as it's impossible (despite what 'official' figures would have you believe to compare horses from completely different eras)...

JPR One, fifth beaten 57 lengths by Constitution Hill in that 2022 Supreme Novices' Hurdle, had its first run since in a handicap at Taunton yesterday. And it duly sluiced up off a mark of 127.

Constitution Hill's win last year was the best performance by a hurdler ever. The clock says so, and the form book too.

Good Morning, Geoff. It is good that we all have opinions to discuss. As far as times go they are used when they are there but ignored when they are not. Secretariat ran amazing times but when Flightline came along they were ignored. When Timeform were asked about Frankel not running fast times all they said was "Invisible Man holds the course record for Ascot's straight mile and Frankel is 2 stone better than him". As I said, they use them when they are there but ignore them if they are not. I ignore them other than it tells me how a race was run. There are far too many variables. Ask the Clerk of the course what the going is and he will give you three different measurements. And that is just the going. How can anyone trust a 'time' when no-one knows where the fastest strip of the racecourse is?

I think CH is by far the best hurdler we have seen this decade and he has the potential, given the opportunity, to challenge for being the greatest of all time. But even then it is an opinion, it is not fact. No-one knows who the best horses are until they meet each other and even then there may be conjecture.

A very fair comment, steerforth. There's really no way of being certain, is there? If nothing else, there's not just one set of speed figures set in stone. A horse's price might be reflecting Topspeed's headline speed figure in the Post, for instance, as that's what everyone sees. But if you were to dig down a bit further, you might be suspicious of the Topspeed figure for all sorts of reasons (e.g., Topspeed might have used the same going allowance for the chase and hurdle course, or straight track and round track). Or maybe you've got your own sets of standard times, as I used to have, which might offer very different speed figures.

As an example of how hard it is to disentangle what is going on, my bet in the Taunton race I mentioned above - the one won by JPR One on Monday - was a lay of Libberty Hunter at 3.75.

Selection
Odds    Stake (£)    Bid type    Placed    Profit/Loss (£)
Libberty Hunter    3.75    200.00    Lay   
20-Mar-23 15:41
200.00
*Average odds:  On  Off                   
Back subtotal:    0.00
Lay subtotal:    200.00
Market subtotal:    200.00
Commission @ 2%:    4.00
Net Market Total:    196.00

Now, I mentioned to Alan the Beard before the race that I was laying the horse because its hurdle runs had all been poor times - even its best Topspeed figure (adjusted for the weights carried on Monday) still left it 9 lb behind JPR One's figure behind Constitution Hill in the Supreme. But there were other reasons for laying it - I like to use more than just speed figures before having a bet. For one thing it had hung when winning at Chepstow, and for another it looked a right mess in the paddock. So who knows what caused it to finish last? Its poor speed figure? A possible physical problem which causes it to hang? Possible slapdash care in the yard? It's hard to disentangle.

But I've left the best bit till last - it actually shortened up further in the betting after I'd laid it!. Which suggests that you're right - speed figures aren't being fully reflected in the market. Some of the comments on this thread alone would support that thesis. But equally it also suggests that punters aren't taking note of worrying Form Book comments either ('hung left'). And crucially that the market is no longer being determined by a handful of propunters betting with the on-course books at a place like Taunton on a Monday afternoon. Thirty years ago the paddock judges would have made sure Libberty Hunter would have gone on the drift, but those punters are mostly sitting at home now, staring at numbers on a screen.

Too long;didn't read: You're right, steerforth!

Adam Norman not Andy Norman. Apologies

JPR One was an example of that sort of thing. It was the first really fit Tizzard horse I'd seen all season, though that might have been because it's a proper athletic hurdling type. Everything else in the yard looks like a great big slow boat of a chaser. Inevitably the report in the paper the next day quoted Tizzard as saying the horse had a good blow afterwards and needed the run, and they're looking forward to going chasing with it!

Ah well. It's all about opinions. If we all thought the same, there wouldn't be a betting market.