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These horses have something in common which I'm testing as a lay angle.
Cappananty Con 5,14
Red Heel 4,67
Lucky Man 3,79
One Night In Milan 3,75
Redzone 3,80
Dorking Lad 3,96
GUERNESEY (FR) 3,95
The Newest One 4,05
THE NEWEST ONE (IRE) 4,00
Global Agreement 2,95
Wynford 3,55
Eamon An Cnoic 2,10
Heath Rise 2,05
Vegas Raider 2,75
BONITA B 2,50
Heath Rise 2,05
Court Royale 1,53
Fairmac 2,54
Love Is Golden 2,34
Kettle Hill 2,42
Aurelia Gold 2,30
Porfin 1,65
Bakr 2,76
LUCKY AVA 2,72
Kaleidoscopic 2,79
MUTAMADED (IRE) 2,35
COUL KAT (IRE) 2,12
Silent Flame 2,66
Astaroth 2,22
Brazen Bolt 2,10
Geryville 2,64
Zumaaty 5,60
GLORIOUS RIO 3,40
G FOR GABRIAL 4,30
Diamond Cottage 3,00
EMPIRESTATEOFMIND (IRE) 4,00
GLAMOROUS FORCE 3,65
GO BATTLE (IRE) 5,10
Impeach 3,80
Mr Wagyu 4,10
KATS BOB 4,10
LIBERATED LAD 3,40
THIRTYFOURSTITCHES (IRE) 3,75
MI LADDO (IRE) 5,14
Rania 5,00
Stroxx 4,10
UBAHHA 5,27
Patsy Fagan 3,35
Rania 5,00
Blazing Hot 3,32
Result: 16-46, almost break even. Now, you want to know the IR prices of the winners? 80, 55, 32, 30, 24, 11, 11, 9. If I included longshots, those are 2-19 with an IR win at 250.
Now, what are the chances of 6 out of 18 winners drifting above 20? Either I'm cosmically unlucky or IR layers are consistently dumb. If I had backed all of those at 20 IR I'd go 6-56 for huge profits with risk-free bets since I laid at BSP. Even if it somehow went 3-59, that's still almost break-even with blind keep bets for no risk. And yet people like TM insist that keep bets are -EV because people with drones will steal my money. They won't if they keep doing such dumb bets.
Cappananty Con 5,14
Red Heel 4,67
Lucky Man 3,79
One Night In Milan 3,75
Redzone 3,80
Dorking Lad 3,96
GUERNESEY (FR) 3,95
The Newest One 4,05
THE NEWEST ONE (IRE) 4,00
Global Agreement 2,95
Wynford 3,55
Eamon An Cnoic 2,10
Heath Rise 2,05
Vegas Raider 2,75
BONITA B 2,50
Heath Rise 2,05
Court Royale 1,53
Fairmac 2,54
Love Is Golden 2,34
Kettle Hill 2,42
Aurelia Gold 2,30
Porfin 1,65
Bakr 2,76
LUCKY AVA 2,72
Kaleidoscopic 2,79
MUTAMADED (IRE) 2,35
COUL KAT (IRE) 2,12
Silent Flame 2,66
Astaroth 2,22
Brazen Bolt 2,10
Geryville 2,64
Zumaaty 5,60
GLORIOUS RIO 3,40
G FOR GABRIAL 4,30
Diamond Cottage 3,00
EMPIRESTATEOFMIND (IRE) 4,00
GLAMOROUS FORCE 3,65
GO BATTLE (IRE) 5,10
Impeach 3,80
Mr Wagyu 4,10
KATS BOB 4,10
LIBERATED LAD 3,40
THIRTYFOURSTITCHES (IRE) 3,75
MI LADDO (IRE) 5,14
Rania 5,00
Stroxx 4,10
UBAHHA 5,27
Patsy Fagan 3,35
Rania 5,00
Blazing Hot 3,32
Result: 16-46, almost break even. Now, you want to know the IR prices of the winners? 80, 55, 32, 30, 24, 11, 11, 9. If I included longshots, those are 2-19 with an IR win at 250.
Now, what are the chances of 6 out of 18 winners drifting above 20? Either I'm cosmically unlucky or IR layers are consistently dumb. If I had backed all of those at 20 IR I'd go 6-56 for huge profits with risk-free bets since I laid at BSP. Even if it somehow went 3-59, that's still almost break-even with blind keep bets for no risk. And yet people like TM insist that keep bets are -EV because people with drones will steal my money. They won't if they keep doing such dumb bets.
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Gazey, record your screen while capturing all this INSANE 3-fig odds of value. Post here daily for 1 solid month. The p&l will be UNDENIABLE for ALL(even for TM)
WITHOUT the above you'll forever be embroiled in a no-win argument.
WITHOUT the above you'll forever be embroiled in a no-win argument.
Your 16:19 post is utter bollix.
But just say it were true - why are you laying ANY of them in the first place?
Shirley just stick up your 12 pence keep bet (a back) at 150 and retire to the lounge to peruse your bote catalogue?
But just say it were true - why are you laying ANY of them in the first place?
Shirley just stick up your 12 pence keep bet (a back) at 150 and retire to the lounge to peruse your bote catalogue?
That 12 pence in each box has to belong to somebody - why not you?
gaze is currently being accomodated by ricardo & tattoo...
charlie cairoli is tonites cabaret.
charlie cairoli is tonites cabaret.
Why wouldn't I be laying them? 70% to win is good enough, greening up puts me to 90% so it's worth it.
I should actually overlay and make free bets at 10-20 IR and hope the fav makes a comeback.
I will miss 5-6 times and then boom, bankroll grows by 30%.
Is it 10 though, or is it 20, or is it 150?
You don't seem to be able to make up your mind.....until after the race!
You don't seem to be able to make up your mind.....until after the race!
Bankrol grows by 30pc........time to quit the job
@TM I'm currently doing 10 because they kept hitting 11-14.5 when I asked for 15.0.
So if I lay a shortie to win 3% of the bankroll, then risk 3% at 10.0, I win 27% of the bankroll 20% of the time.
Jan 12, 2022 -- 9:48AM, Gaze733 wrote:
I don't have selective memory, I log all my bets into spreadsheets.
lol....try filling your time by getting a job ....even a fkg idiot like you can say things like "do you want fries with that "...
Surprisingly many winners drift out to double their bsp and longer in running. A lot of favourites do the same but they don't all win of course. I still maintain that if you are an experienced race watcher over jumps, you can spot the ones that are quite far back and deserve to be shorter in running and take a 2-5 point slice in running. Skinflint was my only bet today. It was favourite but set off in the rear of a big field. Due to fences omitted, the chance to improve its place in running only came on the final bend so it went from 7 to 3.5 very fast. In the end it only finished third but anyone with half an eye could see that once past the chicane along the back straight it would pass most of the ones in front.
Gaze73312 Jan 22 18:38Joined: 15 Mar 12 | Topic/replies: 6,745 | Blogger: Gaze733's blog
@TM I'm currently doing 10 because they kept hitting 11-14.5 when I asked for 15.0.
Indeed, but as you have pointed out yourself (many times), now that you are doing them at 10, they will start hitting 8 or 9. And of course they will still hit 150 from time to time and you will feel like your 10 was a poor value bet.
@TM I'm currently doing 10 because they kept hitting 11-14.5 when I asked for 15.0.
Indeed, but as you have pointed out yourself (many times), now that you are doing them at 10, they will start hitting 8 or 9. And of course they will still hit 150 from time to time and you will feel like your 10 was a poor value bet.
Gaze is absolutely spot on. I have been doing this for years and have won several million. Now everyone will be in on it - what a plonker selling the goose
Millionaires everywhere adjusting their software - to move their "keep bets" from 10 down to 9.80 imo 
I can't take it anymore I'm going insane, its not 10 or 15 or 20 or 50 or 150. It's 733 how did you not know that
So first people tell me I'm wrong for years, and suddenly I'm giving out the golden goose.
If the dumb@ss market didn't realize this in 20 years, it's not going to change now.
tm....trust me I'm a qualified first aider... gaze...well just fck off will ya and leave me alone, I'll wait till the paramedics get here thx.... tm.....but why? I just want to help you and other people just like you 
Paramedic? - the lad needs a surgeon and a good one at that - the reverse lobotomy is a tricky operation.
layemall needs psychiatric evaluation if he thinks that anyone has addressed him in this tread.
oh it was a "joke", well it's a really dumb one. Levelsteakprophet says I'm right. TM has no evidence for his baseless conjectures.
Backing every favourite yesterday in running at 10.0 would have resulted in a £130 loss at £10 stakes. The 8 winning favourites would have been left unmatched,the 13 losing favourites,well they would have simply helped themselves to your tenner
Backing every favourite on Tuesday in running at 10.0 would have resulted in a £200 loss at £10 stakes. The 3 winning favourites would have been left unmatched,the 20 losing favourites,well they would have simply helped themselves to your tenner.
33 points down in two days !
33 points down in two days !
Gaze - this is genuine advice - take it or leave it (I suspect the later) - but do yourself (and all of us) a favour - just walk away from in-running and the lure of huge prices.
I think it is distracting you from what should be your objective - you are chasing a big jackpot but most of the big winners on here are just consistent winners. They aren't chasing a big jackpot win every day, they are actually winning very little but they are winning it very often (in many cases probably almost every market they play). You really only need to look at the way the Premium Charge rules are structured to understand this.
There are some situations where the "keep bet" function can be used to your advantage (especially in other sports) - but it's a dangerous function and using it as a static bet at a fixed price in some of the fastest moving markets (in-play horse racing) to try to outfox people that make their living from either race-reading and/or a time advantage is only going to end one way (in the long term)!
Have a go at pre-race trading or something/anything where you aren't at a huge disadvantage before you even start.
I think it is distracting you from what should be your objective - you are chasing a big jackpot but most of the big winners on here are just consistent winners. They aren't chasing a big jackpot win every day, they are actually winning very little but they are winning it very often (in many cases probably almost every market they play). You really only need to look at the way the Premium Charge rules are structured to understand this.
There are some situations where the "keep bet" function can be used to your advantage (especially in other sports) - but it's a dangerous function and using it as a static bet at a fixed price in some of the fastest moving markets (in-play horse racing) to try to outfox people that make their living from either race-reading and/or a time advantage is only going to end one way (in the long term)!
Have a go at pre-race trading or something/anything where you aren't at a huge disadvantage before you even start.
I have applied to be the Security Guard that patrols the computer room!
TM you have the patience of a saint !
On Monday 4 favourites made a comeback from 10.0+ and won, resulting in a £180 profit on the day. You would still be £150 (15 pts) down on the week though
On Monday 4 favourites made a comeback from 10.0+ and won, resulting in a £180 profit on the day. You would still be £150 (15 pts) down on the week though
TameTheTiger13 Jan 22 11:02Joined: 27 Aug 07 | Topic/replies: 3,555 | Blogger: TameTheTiger's blog
TM you have the patience of a saint !
I've got time on my hands - the garden is frozen, the dog is 15 years old and won't leave the house if it's cold or wet!, no proper racing till 13:50/16:30, no snooker till 13:00, zero liquidity in the Israeli football!
TM you have the patience of a saint !
I've got time on my hands - the garden is frozen, the dog is 15 years old and won't leave the house if it's cold or wet!, no proper racing till 13:50/16:30, no snooker till 13:00, zero liquidity in the Israeli football!
Not a huge fan of Chelmsford or Newcastle but give me Southwell or Wolverhampton any day of the week!
However in the absence of any proper racing at this time of year Chelmsford and Newcastle - are the next best thing imo - it's as close to proper racing as we will get today.
However in the absence of any proper racing at this time of year Chelmsford and Newcastle - are the next best thing imo - it's as close to proper racing as we will get today.
I've actually laid Trition but did not expect this one to win. I shoulda laid both and greened up at 10.
Eye backed Trishy at the bigger odds. U see how that one didn't come back and win??? #difficulttogetthewinner@biggeroddsduringeachracebuteasyaspieafterwards..
If you backed it at 3.4 you should have greened up at BSP, it was a clown price with a clown jock.
What we shoulda backed /layed is the tale of many a skint gambler.
Again ,so easy after the race.
Again ,so easy after the race.
Another 10 lost on that race, they took my money 4 hurdles out
The trick is to only match the winner at 10.0, not just the favourite, but every horse at the top of the market
The winner actually traded within a huge price range before the race - can you think of a way you could have made a profit from that (in the absence of any software, fast pictures, etc) before the race?
You're still chasing rainbows and it's stopping you from seeing the more realistic regular payday that is right in front of your nose!
You're still chasing rainbows and it's stopping you from seeing the more realistic regular payday that is right in front of your nose!
One could be under the impression that favs never lose.
yep, pulled a few quid back there at 10.0, only £80 down this week now
of course he was top rated, top rated horses never lose
Gaze73313 Jan 22 13:19Joined: 15 Mar 12 | Topic/replies: 6,753 | Blogger: Gaze733's blog
Jessiemac 230 IR pure coincidence
1) Why do you keep saying "pure coincidence" after some of the races?
2) How much did you have on at 230?
3) Can you let us know about the next "coincidence" before the next "coincidence" occurs - i.e. which race will hit 230?, which horse will hit 230? How much for? etc, etc.
Otherwise all you are doing is informing us how high the winner was matched after each race - we can all see that for ourselves and do not require this service from you!
Jessiemac 230 IR pure coincidence
1) Why do you keep saying "pure coincidence" after some of the races?
2) How much did you have on at 230?
3) Can you let us know about the next "coincidence" before the next "coincidence" occurs - i.e. which race will hit 230?, which horse will hit 230? How much for? etc, etc.
Otherwise all you are doing is informing us how high the winner was matched after each race - we can all see that for ourselves and do not require this service from you!
Jessiemac is from my lay angle that is currently 5-17, breakeven at SP but the winners were at 19, 9.2, 8.5 and 230 IR.
What are the odds of 4 out of 5 winners drifting so much IR?
Take my hat off to you Management if you can stay calm
what are the odds of losing 80 quid backing the fav at 10.0 over the last 50+ races ?
I say that the IR odds are inefficient. In the first 2 races, we got 2nd fav winning at 30 IR and fav winning at 230 IR. I ironically say it's a coincidence because you actually think that a 1 in 6900 event just happened. Funny that just 2 days ago we had a 1 in 8250 event mentioned earlier.
Is Gaze a younger version of Jim Bowen??
This is what you could have won.
But the reality is you didnt.
This is what you could have won.
But the reality is you didnt.
Tiger if you're afraid of losing your 10 quid then lay the favs before backing them at 10.
Backing every winner yesterday was a 123,876,000/1 event. Coincidence ? so what ?
It's all a wind-up Tiger (imo) - nobody can be here since 2012 and still be so stupid.
I need to get a life - but I am all green on the snooker already and the dog still doesn't want to leave the house!
I need to get a life - but I am all green on the snooker already and the dog still doesn't want to leave the house!
Gaze - by your reconning/maths the "coincidence" has now struck at odds of 2,070,000 and we've only had 4 races!
the fact that he's posted a 20/1 outsider as adding weight to his system tells me all I need. Im out !
The point is that horses I lay or indirectly lay by backing others always make ridiculous comebacks.
Cinzento 16 IR
Oasis Irlandes 12IR
See Tiger, you would've been in profit by now.
Oasis Irlandes 12IR
See Tiger, you would've been in profit by now.
Oasis Irlandes - wasn't matched at 12 in running! - it was matched for peanuts at a max of 10 and the biggest price matched to a proper (but still very small amount) was 8.60. I'm pretty sure timeform will back that up later.
can Gaze enlighten us as to which showing will have the biggest crowd and the biggest cheers but with the least chance of catching Covid?
Gaze73313 Jan 22 17:08Joined: 15 Mar 12 | Topic/replies: 6,770 | Blogger: Gaze733's blog
Cinzento 16 IR
Oasis Irlandes 12IR
See Tiger, you would've been in profit by now.
Just to confirm the actual maximum prices matched in running (even then, only to about a £10-£15 stake!):
16:30: Cinzento was 9.00 according to Betfair/Timeform
17:00: Oasis Irlandes was 8.80 according to Betfair/Timeform
So you would NOT have been matched on either of these in-running using the method/price that you suggested.
I don't mind you talking bollix in broad terms (we've all come to expect that) - but please keep the numbers honest!
Cinzento 16 IR
Oasis Irlandes 12IR
See Tiger, you would've been in profit by now.
Just to confirm the actual maximum prices matched in running (even then, only to about a £10-£15 stake!):
16:30: Cinzento was 9.00 according to Betfair/Timeform
17:00: Oasis Irlandes was 8.80 according to Betfair/Timeform
So you would NOT have been matched on either of these in-running using the method/price that you suggested.
I don't mind you talking bollix in broad terms (we've all come to expect that) - but please keep the numbers honest!
Gazey, where's the video recordings of you catching all this wonderful value? That is the only way to finger blast non-believers(+ gain a ton of disciples..)
Gaze73312 Jan 22 18:38Joined: 15 Mar 12 | Topic/replies: 6,745 | Blogger: Gaze733's blog
@TM I'm currently doing 10 because they kept hitting 11-14.5 when I asked for 15.0.
@TM I'm currently doing 10 because they kept hitting 11-14.5 when I asked for 15.0.
The Management12 Jan 22 19:56Joined: 27 Dec 00 | Topic/replies: 6,697 | Blogger: The Management's blog
Indeed, but as you have pointed out yourself (many times), now that you are doing them at 10, they will start hitting 8 or 9.
Indeed, but as you have pointed out yourself (many times), now that you are doing them at 10, they will start hitting 8 or 9.
The prosecution rests M'Laud - no further questions.
I have just set Gruss to back every horse for £10 at it's highest in running price with the aid of my Chrystal ball. That's the only way this system works.
aitch - click on "highest price", from the drop down options, select "yes" - but don't forget to also tick the box labelled "front of queue"!
My Czech toy just texted me to say " They can have all the holy grails they like but they wont beat me "
12:40 at Lingfield another bummer of a result for the Gazey cistern - The Fav wins but only goes out to 9.80 (for about £1.00) in-running!
3 fav lays today, 1 lost, two reached 9.8 and 9.0, tell me more about how I shouldn't green up. I've lowered the threshold to 9.0 when the favs are below 2/1.
We have gone full circle. Below is from my second post on this thread:
The Management11 Jan 22 11:35Joined: 27 Dec 00 | Topic/replies: 6,704 | Blogger: The Management's blog
The bottom line is - your are still just after-timing - but rather than after-timing the selections, you are after-timing the prices! You are picking a number (after the race) that will turn your loss into a profit.
We've journeyed from greening up at 20, down to 15, down to 10 and now down to 9.
My guess would be that once you get down to about 7 as your price, you will get a couple of 150+ winners on the bounce - and you'll want to move your bet back out to 110.
The Management11 Jan 22 11:35Joined: 27 Dec 00 | Topic/replies: 6,704 | Blogger: The Management's blog
The bottom line is - your are still just after-timing - but rather than after-timing the selections, you are after-timing the prices! You are picking a number (after the race) that will turn your loss into a profit.
We've journeyed from greening up at 20, down to 15, down to 10 and now down to 9.
My guess would be that once you get down to about 7 as your price, you will get a couple of 150+ winners on the bounce - and you'll want to move your bet back out to 110.
Yup - but unfortunately Our Power was 3rd in the betting (in a 4 horse race) so not the Fav.
Plus it hit 10 in-running for the princely sum of £3
Plus it hit 10 in-running for the princely sum of £3
Clown drifter
Clown steamer
Clown cistern
Clown Gaze
HTH
Clown steamer
Clown cistern
Clown Gaze
HTH
I'm pretty sure I have been had by a supreme angler Hayden. 
But in for a penny.... and I was always a sucker for a lost cause
But in for a penny.... and I was always a sucker for a lost cause
White Marlin 100 IR, it's almost as if favs never lose. Another day where backing every fav is profitable.
I guess the favorite-longshot bias is real, the fields are absolute garbage.
The Management14 Jan 22 13:57Joined: 27 Dec 00 | Topic/replies: 6,709 | Blogger: The Management's blog
My guess would be that once you get down to about 7 as your price, you will get a couple of 150+ winners on the bounce - and you'll want to move your bet back out to 110.
I want you to know that I get no satisfaction whatsoever from always being right!
My guess would be that once you get down to about 7 as your price, you will get a couple of 150+ winners on the bounce - and you'll want to move your bet back out to 110.
I want you to know that I get no satisfaction whatsoever from always being right!
You've cracked it Gaze -pick a day when favourite backers are in clover and clean up .
Famous Star 1.67 to 5.3
The Tron 1.96 to 9.2
Odds on favs never lose.
The Tron 1.96 to 9.2
Odds on favs never lose.
why do mugs lay odds on favs at 5+ when they never lose?
what about the last fav at Sedgy ? that went to a massive price...and lost
Oh look another fav. Alaskan Jewel Steamed from 15 to 4.4, drifted to 24 IR and won. Steamers are unbeatable.
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