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09 Jan 22
08:31
Joined:
Date Joined:
22 Apr 19
Good morning Guys,
I don't need to start this thread by explaining history behind it (readers know it anyway) so lets get straight into the concept for those that may not be familiar.
Conditions of each Lay Post will be the same as always (since April 2018). Only one post in any given day (to prevent chasing) bookmaker odds of 5/2 or under and matched on here to win a level stake of £50. A copy of the bet will be shown as part of the post together with what i consider a reasonable reasoning for the lay selection. For complete transparency i will post the P/L status post race (i neglected this in latter part of 2021).
The first 4 threads (2 in 2018) were profitable with a total gain of £2242 (pre-commission) to a level £50 stake (breakdown below). I didn't replicate this level in 2021, in fact i consider it a poor effort on my part and only 28 P/L selections in the year (workload often gets in the way). Compare this to 2018 when there were 66 in 70 consecutive days (4 x NR's) although i had far more time on my hands in those days.
Pre-commission there was sufficient profit in 2021 to buy a Toblerone bar and a small loss at 2% (the figure that counts of course). This was unfortunate as i suspect the many random lays (not counted) would have yielded a reasonable profit. To negate this in 2022 whenever a lay(s) is/are posted, one of them will be titled Lay Post and subject to a running P/L (as previous threads).
As on all my lay threads everyone is more than welcome to post on whatever topic, horse racing or otherwise, banter is a bonus and all i politely request is no bickering or trolling please. It was noticeable on the previous couple of threads there are those that like to antagonise and dispute posted facts, replying with infantile reasoning (and untruths) but sadly this is a reflection of social media we know today.
My previous lay threads record
Andrews Daily Lay Thread 2018 (Spring/Summer)
Total 66 selections
Success 55/66
Strike rate 83%
Overall profit +£1657 to level stake £50
Andrews Random Daily Lay Thread 2018 (late Summer/Winter)
Total 64 selections
Success 46/64
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£425 to level stake £50
Andrews Daily Lay Thread 2019 (reduced selections)
Total 78 selections
Success 56/78
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£81 to level stake £50
Andrews Random Lay Thread 2020 (reduced selections)
Total 36 selections
Success 25/36
Strike rate 69%
Overall profit +£79 to level stake £50
Andrews 2021 Lay Thread (reduced selections)
I will scroll back, update the thread and post here.
Good luck to all readers in 2022.
I don't need to start this thread by explaining history behind it (readers know it anyway) so lets get straight into the concept for those that may not be familiar.
Conditions of each Lay Post will be the same as always (since April 2018). Only one post in any given day (to prevent chasing) bookmaker odds of 5/2 or under and matched on here to win a level stake of £50. A copy of the bet will be shown as part of the post together with what i consider a reasonable reasoning for the lay selection. For complete transparency i will post the P/L status post race (i neglected this in latter part of 2021).
The first 4 threads (2 in 2018) were profitable with a total gain of £2242 (pre-commission) to a level £50 stake (breakdown below). I didn't replicate this level in 2021, in fact i consider it a poor effort on my part and only 28 P/L selections in the year (workload often gets in the way). Compare this to 2018 when there were 66 in 70 consecutive days (4 x NR's) although i had far more time on my hands in those days.
Pre-commission there was sufficient profit in 2021 to buy a Toblerone bar and a small loss at 2% (the figure that counts of course). This was unfortunate as i suspect the many random lays (not counted) would have yielded a reasonable profit. To negate this in 2022 whenever a lay(s) is/are posted, one of them will be titled Lay Post and subject to a running P/L (as previous threads).
As on all my lay threads everyone is more than welcome to post on whatever topic, horse racing or otherwise, banter is a bonus and all i politely request is no bickering or trolling please. It was noticeable on the previous couple of threads there are those that like to antagonise and dispute posted facts, replying with infantile reasoning (and untruths) but sadly this is a reflection of social media we know today.
My previous lay threads record
Andrews Daily Lay Thread 2018 (Spring/Summer)
Total 66 selections
Success 55/66
Strike rate 83%
Overall profit +£1657 to level stake £50
Andrews Random Daily Lay Thread 2018 (late Summer/Winter)
Total 64 selections
Success 46/64
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£425 to level stake £50
Andrews Daily Lay Thread 2019 (reduced selections)
Total 78 selections
Success 56/78
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£81 to level stake £50
Andrews Random Lay Thread 2020 (reduced selections)
Total 36 selections
Success 25/36
Strike rate 69%
Overall profit +£79 to level stake £50
Andrews 2021 Lay Thread (reduced selections)
I will scroll back, update the thread and post here.
Good luck to all readers in 2022.
Show More
Morning All,
Thanks Andrew - Love Dreams has had some treatment on his dodgy knee since his last run, hence the six week gap in appearances. The longer trip is something I believe is worth trying, although an attempt at 10F at Newbury in the summer was a dismal failure. It's also the case that there was nothing suitable at Kempton until mid January. It does look competitive for a 0-75 - those 3yo fillies at the bottom of the weights will be tough to beat.
I've also acquired a second horse, buying a 5yo gelding called Eagle Court through an online sale last week. He's had a disappointing year in the Tom Ward stable after being bought for 27,000 gns from D O'Meara in October 2021. But that does at least mean he's down to a handicap mark that will look generous if we can sort him out. See if you can spot the unusual pattern in his 27 career starts to date!
Pictures and a short video here on his sales catalog page:
https://secure.tattersalls.com/4DCGI/Entry/Lot/ODE22/71
Thanks Andrew - Love Dreams has had some treatment on his dodgy knee since his last run, hence the six week gap in appearances. The longer trip is something I believe is worth trying, although an attempt at 10F at Newbury in the summer was a dismal failure. It's also the case that there was nothing suitable at Kempton until mid January. It does look competitive for a 0-75 - those 3yo fillies at the bottom of the weights will be tough to beat.
I've also acquired a second horse, buying a 5yo gelding called Eagle Court through an online sale last week. He's had a disappointing year in the Tom Ward stable after being bought for 27,000 gns from D O'Meara in October 2021. But that does at least mean he's down to a handicap mark that will look generous if we can sort him out. See if you can spot the unusual pattern in his 27 career starts to date!
Pictures and a short video here on his sales catalog page:
https://secure.tattersalls.com/4DCGI/Entry/Lot/ODE22/71
Happy birthday Andrew,I hope you back a winner to cover any expenses.
Happy birthday Andrew!
Alan can't see anything obvious for a pattern except possibly runs best races when reappearing within 3 weeks of last race perhaps.
Alan can't see anything obvious for a pattern except possibly runs best races when reappearing within 3 weeks of last race perhaps.
Good luck with Eagle Court, Anorak.
I backed him for the November Handicap in 2020, and judging by the drift in the betting on here, think I was only person in the world who didn't know he wasn't winning that day!
I noticed when I was doing the juvenile hurdle thread in 2020 that his sire Free Eagle was getting a few winners from not many runners in that division, which I think was from his first crop, and just looking again now, not a big sample over jumps, but around 25% of his progeny that have gone jumping have won at least one race. Would you consider hurdling for this feller?
I backed him for the November Handicap in 2020, and judging by the drift in the betting on here, think I was only person in the world who didn't know he wasn't winning that day!
I noticed when I was doing the juvenile hurdle thread in 2020 that his sire Free Eagle was getting a few winners from not many runners in that division, which I think was from his first crop, and just looking again now, not a big sample over jumps, but around 25% of his progeny that have gone jumping have won at least one race. Would you consider hurdling for this feller?
George,
Very unlikely that he'll go hurdling in my colours, partly because I'm not really interested in owning a novice hurdler, partly because it's an expensive business getting them handicapped. I'll be happy having fun running on the flat in 12F - 16F handicaps, with a couple of series that lead to valuable finals over 14F as possible end of season targets.
Very unlikely that he'll go hurdling in my colours, partly because I'm not really interested in owning a novice hurdler, partly because it's an expensive business getting them handicapped. I'll be happy having fun running on the flat in 12F - 16F handicaps, with a couple of series that lead to valuable finals over 14F as possible end of season targets.
Good afternoon Guys,
Many thanks for the birthday wishes yesterday, 39 already, where does the time go
Pushed for time tidying up loose ends at work before travelling to London tomorrow, but good luck to Alan/Love Dreams in the finale at Wolverhampton, although he looks up against it. If i had to bet i would be on Alwajd who is consistant/improving, but i will only watch the race out of interest.
If there is an odds-against shortie to back this afternoon, maybe Phantom Getaway (1.45 Hereford) is a potential candidate. Won easily (7L and eased) giving away 26 lb to the runner-up LTO and wasn't stopping over 24f so the 1.5f step up in trip shouldn't be an issue. The handicapper was impressed raising him 9 lb to 127 although he's back in novice company. David Bass has a 31% winning strike rate over hurdles here so another positive.
Good luck and have a nice Wednesday all.
More later.
Many thanks for the birthday wishes yesterday, 39 already, where does the time go
Pushed for time tidying up loose ends at work before travelling to London tomorrow, but good luck to Alan/Love Dreams in the finale at Wolverhampton, although he looks up against it. If i had to bet i would be on Alwajd who is consistant/improving, but i will only watch the race out of interest.
If there is an odds-against shortie to back this afternoon, maybe Phantom Getaway (1.45 Hereford) is a potential candidate. Won easily (7L and eased) giving away 26 lb to the runner-up LTO and wasn't stopping over 24f so the 1.5f step up in trip shouldn't be an issue. The handicapper was impressed raising him 9 lb to 127 although he's back in novice company. David Bass has a 31% winning strike rate over hurdles here so another positive.
Good luck and have a nice Wednesday all.
More later.
Good morning Guys,
I think i should stick to laying.
. The previous 3 selections were poor (2 were outsiders) and as a consequence i'm only just above the relegation area in the premiership naps table. Hopefully i think i have found a decent one this evening in Zealot who looks well handicappped and is with a shrewd outfit now.
Less than 2.5 hours work in 2022, then off to Heathrow, KLM permitting. I'm really looking forward to it, i cant remember the last time i spent Christmas day in GB, but it was a very long time ago. It will be a little strange not celebrating with my daughter (she's having fun in Brasil) but all offpsring flee the nest at some stage. At least my credit cards will not see so much daylight.
Alan
Not a bad run by Love Dreams considering his SP and it was a decent field for the class to be fair. Good luck with the new recruit, Eagle Court; when i read your post i thought i recognised the name, but i must have been thinking of another. Any date in mind for his first run in your colours ? As for see if you can spot the unusual pattern in his 27 career starts to date this will give me something to do in transit at Schiphol later.
Happysandwich
Thanks and hope to see you and Mrs HS sometime over the festive season.
Laurie
Although i will be in Walton-on-Thames from tomorrow afternoon, going to Kempton on Boxing day is still only a thought, even though it will be a decent card. I'm sure we will meet up again somewhere in 2023, send me an email/sms if you plan to go to a course.
Good luck and have a nice Thursday all.
I think i should stick to laying.
. The previous 3 selections were poor (2 were outsiders) and as a consequence i'm only just above the relegation area in the premiership naps table. Hopefully i think i have found a decent one this evening in Zealot who looks well handicappped and is with a shrewd outfit now.Less than 2.5 hours work in 2022, then off to Heathrow, KLM permitting. I'm really looking forward to it, i cant remember the last time i spent Christmas day in GB, but it was a very long time ago. It will be a little strange not celebrating with my daughter (she's having fun in Brasil) but all offpsring flee the nest at some stage. At least my credit cards will not see so much daylight.
Alan
Not a bad run by Love Dreams considering his SP and it was a decent field for the class to be fair. Good luck with the new recruit, Eagle Court; when i read your post i thought i recognised the name, but i must have been thinking of another. Any date in mind for his first run in your colours ? As for see if you can spot the unusual pattern in his 27 career starts to date this will give me something to do in transit at Schiphol later.
Happysandwich
Thanks and hope to see you and Mrs HS sometime over the festive season.
Laurie
Although i will be in Walton-on-Thames from tomorrow afternoon, going to Kempton on Boxing day is still only a thought, even though it will be a decent card. I'm sure we will meet up again somewhere in 2023, send me an email/sms if you plan to go to a course.
Good luck and have a nice Thursday all.
Morning Andrew,
We didn't really want to lead, but even when Morris slowed down and invited something to go on, nobody else wanted to lead either! Left him a bit of a sitting duck, but at least we now know he can handle the track, which gives us more options for the next three months. Two wins in 2022 at his age and in that grade of race is a good return and he still shows every sign of enjoying the job at home and on the racecourse.
No rush with Eagle Court, get him settled and see how he works at home before planning where to run.
We didn't really want to lead, but even when Morris slowed down and invited something to go on, nobody else wanted to lead either! Left him a bit of a sitting duck, but at least we now know he can handle the track, which gives us more options for the next three months. Two wins in 2022 at his age and in that grade of race is a good return and he still shows every sign of enjoying the job at home and on the racecourse.
No rush with Eagle Court, get him settled and see how he works at home before planning where to run.
Yes i noticed Luke looking across several times just after the start, more or less expecting a lead, but i guess he realised he was on his own, so had to get on with it.
Happy Christmas to AIS and all contributors to the thread.
Dec 23, 2022 -- 11:53AM, Trusty wrote:
Happy Christmas to AIS and all contributors to the thread.
Ditto
Good evening Guys and Christmas Eve Greetings from a mild Walton-On-Thames.
Trusty and PHS, thank you.
Zealot (5/4f) won on Thursday to at least stop the rot from my previous few selections and it may keep me in the premiership naps table.
A couple of relaxing days since i arrived at Heathrow on Thursday evening, no racing of course, but a day in the city yesterday, a walk by the river today and a decent Christmas pub lunch. The train strikes have not impacted me.
11 meetings on Boxing day, although it's quantity over quantity in the main, albeit with decent graded cards at Leopardstown and Kempton.
I've decided not to go to to the latter on Boxing day even though i'm only around 3.5 miles away. My brother is not a big racing fan (he puts bets on for me at times) more into West Ham for his sins, but as he and his wife are providing hospitality for a few days, i thought i would keep the festive season days to family.
No definite travel plans after Tuesday, stay in GB, go to Sweden or return to Germany, i'll play it by ear. My KLM return ticket from this trip is in March (weekend after Cheltenham) and i'm free until 9th January, so my options are open anyway.
I've never been to a Kempton meeting of any description so it would have been a novelty if i decided to, but never mind i can watch some of the card on TV/LV. I've already backed Constitution Hill with WH at 1/6 (yesterday) and 2/13 (shops) as well as 1.17 on here. Regular readers know i'm a massive fan and have been since i saw his debut run at Sandown. I can't see him being beaten this season and if Nicky/Michael decide on the chasing route next season, the 2024 Arkle could be his for the taking assuming he jumps. Mind you, his stablemate was beaten at long odds-on for this race in 2022 and we have seen another unbeaten horse get turned over on the flat, but i'm confident as can be.
I'm only really interested (backing wise) in a couple of races, above and the G2 Juvenile at Leopardstown (1.10) where i feel Lozziemouth could be a bet after her impressive win LTO. Still lightly raced (a little sketchy over flights at times) but she has a great chance of winning the Triumph Hurdle for WPM/Ricci after the same with Vauban last year.
I think Bravemansgame can beat the likely favourite L'Homme Presse in the KG over a course like Kempton (not so in the Gold Cup) but i'm not sure i will play, although in the novice chase (1.20) i will be a layer of McFabulous.
Many eyes will be on a one time Epsom Derby favourite High Definition an ex-AOB inmate, who makes his hurdle debut at Leopardstown (12.00) now trained by Joseph. Very classy in the context of a small maiden hurdle and he could make a winning start, but i would be against him. Only won as a 2 year old (did run well in a couple of other decent races to be fair) but if he was anything remotely half-decent he would be in Asia or Australia now. Interesting he's still a colt.
I flipped through the minor cards, but i'm not interested in anything other than the above although i will be watching the football results to see if Bristol City can win for the home crowd against probably the most in-from team in the Championship (WBA). I have my doubts to be honest.
OK enough from me, at least this side of Boxing day probably, so in the meantime i wish you and your loved ones a wonderful Christmas/festive season. It will be strange not celebrating with my daughter who is sunning herself in Brasil, but Whats App means we can communicate.
Good luck and have a nice evening all.
Trusty and PHS, thank you.
Zealot (5/4f) won on Thursday to at least stop the rot from my previous few selections and it may keep me in the premiership naps table.
A couple of relaxing days since i arrived at Heathrow on Thursday evening, no racing of course, but a day in the city yesterday, a walk by the river today and a decent Christmas pub lunch. The train strikes have not impacted me.
11 meetings on Boxing day, although it's quantity over quantity in the main, albeit with decent graded cards at Leopardstown and Kempton.
I've decided not to go to to the latter on Boxing day even though i'm only around 3.5 miles away. My brother is not a big racing fan (he puts bets on for me at times) more into West Ham for his sins, but as he and his wife are providing hospitality for a few days, i thought i would keep the festive season days to family.
No definite travel plans after Tuesday, stay in GB, go to Sweden or return to Germany, i'll play it by ear. My KLM return ticket from this trip is in March (weekend after Cheltenham) and i'm free until 9th January, so my options are open anyway.
I've never been to a Kempton meeting of any description so it would have been a novelty if i decided to, but never mind i can watch some of the card on TV/LV. I've already backed Constitution Hill with WH at 1/6 (yesterday) and 2/13 (shops) as well as 1.17 on here. Regular readers know i'm a massive fan and have been since i saw his debut run at Sandown. I can't see him being beaten this season and if Nicky/Michael decide on the chasing route next season, the 2024 Arkle could be his for the taking assuming he jumps. Mind you, his stablemate was beaten at long odds-on for this race in 2022 and we have seen another unbeaten horse get turned over on the flat, but i'm confident as can be.
I'm only really interested (backing wise) in a couple of races, above and the G2 Juvenile at Leopardstown (1.10) where i feel Lozziemouth could be a bet after her impressive win LTO. Still lightly raced (a little sketchy over flights at times) but she has a great chance of winning the Triumph Hurdle for WPM/Ricci after the same with Vauban last year.
I think Bravemansgame can beat the likely favourite L'Homme Presse in the KG over a course like Kempton (not so in the Gold Cup) but i'm not sure i will play, although in the novice chase (1.20) i will be a layer of McFabulous.
Many eyes will be on a one time Epsom Derby favourite High Definition an ex-AOB inmate, who makes his hurdle debut at Leopardstown (12.00) now trained by Joseph. Very classy in the context of a small maiden hurdle and he could make a winning start, but i would be against him. Only won as a 2 year old (did run well in a couple of other decent races to be fair) but if he was anything remotely half-decent he would be in Asia or Australia now. Interesting he's still a colt.
I flipped through the minor cards, but i'm not interested in anything other than the above although i will be watching the football results to see if Bristol City can win for the home crowd against probably the most in-from team in the Championship (WBA). I have my doubts to be honest.
OK enough from me, at least this side of Boxing day probably, so in the meantime i wish you and your loved ones a wonderful Christmas/festive season. It will be strange not celebrating with my daughter who is sunning herself in Brasil, but Whats App means we can communicate.
Good luck and have a nice evening all.
was beaten at long odds-on for this race in 2020
I'm sober, honestly
I'm sober, honestly
Am keen to see how Galore Deassences goes over fences. Spotted him last season hurdling and have been waiting for his debut. A big, big horse with loads of scope.
main bet has to be A Plus tard over the festive period
cant see how it will get beat
backed at 6/4
cant see how it will get beat
backed at 6/4
Lay Post
Kempton 2.30 - McFabulous
A 8 year old Milan gelding trained by Paul Nicholls at Ditcheat, Somerset
Dam was unraced, but has thrown 3 offspring in total including Waiting Patiently.
Paul Nicholls best chance of a winner in his eyes and he may be right, but i have my doubts. Acting on the track may not be an issue, but is he a true 3 miler even around here. Won 2 from 3 over fences (PU on debut) but the field at Exeter fell apart with a faller at the first, badly hampering another, Unexpected Party who has been well beaten since (albeit by Jonbon). This one was in contention until the 2nd last where i feel fitness told.
He won well over further at Newbury, but in my opinion his 2 rivals didn't show their best at all (Thyme Hill jumped poorly). 2 of his rivals are unbeaten, albeit very few runs.
8 years old is late enough to start chasing and although he's finished a chase twice, Kempton can be tricky for a novice and a couple of his younger rivals may have more scope. At 15/8 he's short enough in a half decent field and i feel there are enough doubts, hence the lay selection.
Lay @ 3.30
Good luck all.
Kempton 2.30 - McFabulous
A 8 year old Milan gelding trained by Paul Nicholls at Ditcheat, Somerset
Dam was unraced, but has thrown 3 offspring in total including Waiting Patiently.
Paul Nicholls best chance of a winner in his eyes and he may be right, but i have my doubts. Acting on the track may not be an issue, but is he a true 3 miler even around here. Won 2 from 3 over fences (PU on debut) but the field at Exeter fell apart with a faller at the first, badly hampering another, Unexpected Party who has been well beaten since (albeit by Jonbon). This one was in contention until the 2nd last where i feel fitness told.
He won well over further at Newbury, but in my opinion his 2 rivals didn't show their best at all (Thyme Hill jumped poorly). 2 of his rivals are unbeaten, albeit very few runs.
8 years old is late enough to start chasing and although he's finished a chase twice, Kempton can be tricky for a novice and a couple of his younger rivals may have more scope. At 15/8 he's short enough in a half decent field and i feel there are enough doubts, hence the lay selection.
Lay @ 3.30
Good luck all.
Good morning and Boxing day greetings Guys,
Hope you all had a nice Christmas day with loved ones, or even one with those that are not so loved.
It could almost be a Saturday, no work for most, a full football league program, test cricket, WC darts and 11 race meetings to ponder over (no Opening Show ?) so i thought i would add a few muses to what was posted on Saturday and the PL lay selection above.
I've neglected the thread this year in the latter context with very few selections for several reasons (workload being one) and a feeling sometimes that maybe the format has run its course, but I will continue in 2023. I have 6 days/selections to try and attain an annual profit, but a winner would negate this; the poor run i had in summer to blame (i have recovered a little of it since).
Anyway on this afternoon and as mentioned before i'm only interested in a few of the races at Kempton and Leopardstown so I will concentrate on these.
Leopardstown 12.00
Last years one time Epsom Derby hopeful (didn't run) High Definition is the class horse (still a colt) without question, but he only won as a 2 year old. Now passed on to Susan Magnier, i sense this is a 'lets see how he is over hurdles' by new connections but he could be meeting a decent one in the WPM trained Parmenion bought at the 2021 Argana summer sales (owned by the Donnellys, racing under Maries' name in the well recognized Shishkin silks).
He was originally intended to be the stable 2022 Triumph Hurdle hope, but thankfully Vauban took that mantle. Winner of his only run, a 11f maiden flat race (14 runners) at one of the French provincial tracks although the form hasn't been franked (won easy to be fair). Well related and will be dual-purpose, possibly a Ballymore type more than Supreme (Willie has Facile Vega for the latter) and at 33/1 could be worth a fun EW bet for the race. Well related (NH) been backed for his hurdle debut and vibes from the stable are positive, so a win bet and lay of High Definition for me.
Leopardstown 1.10
I've been looking forward to seeing Lozziemouth run this afternoon and she could be a bet after her impressive win in a G3 at Fairyhouse where she looked the winner turning in. Still lightly speeded (a little sketchy over flights at times) but if she wins today has a great chance of winning the Triumph Hurdle for WPM/Ricci after the same with Vauban last year.
Kempton 1.20
See lay post above
Kempton 1.55
Constitution Hill will win based on form and ratings, not much to be added really. If so, he will make a healthy reduction in my GB festive season expenses, but if not, i will take it on the chin as always.
Kempton 2.30
I think this race is more open than the betting may suggest, but i've always fancied Bravemansgame to win it, even though i like the likely favorite L'Homme Presse (i saw him win the Scilly Isles Novices at Sandown, the day Vauban won in Ireland). This is his gold cup and he's been trained with today in mind, whereas his main rival could win at Cheltenham; i'm not sure this sharp track will suit and he has a tendency to jump to the left on occasion. The pace will be decent with Ahoy Senor and Frodon up front and BMG could sit in behind this pair before going on 2 fences out, just as he did on the same card last year. I will be a layer on L'Homme Presse.
Good luck and have a nice Boxing day all.
LoyalHoncho and The Dragon
Thank you for your selections and good luck to both.
Hope you all had a nice Christmas day with loved ones, or even one with those that are not so loved.
It could almost be a Saturday, no work for most, a full football league program, test cricket, WC darts and 11 race meetings to ponder over (no Opening Show ?) so i thought i would add a few muses to what was posted on Saturday and the PL lay selection above.
I've neglected the thread this year in the latter context with very few selections for several reasons (workload being one) and a feeling sometimes that maybe the format has run its course, but I will continue in 2023. I have 6 days/selections to try and attain an annual profit, but a winner would negate this; the poor run i had in summer to blame (i have recovered a little of it since).
Anyway on this afternoon and as mentioned before i'm only interested in a few of the races at Kempton and Leopardstown so I will concentrate on these.
Leopardstown 12.00
Last years one time Epsom Derby hopeful (didn't run) High Definition is the class horse (still a colt) without question, but he only won as a 2 year old. Now passed on to Susan Magnier, i sense this is a 'lets see how he is over hurdles' by new connections but he could be meeting a decent one in the WPM trained Parmenion bought at the 2021 Argana summer sales (owned by the Donnellys, racing under Maries' name in the well recognized Shishkin silks).
He was originally intended to be the stable 2022 Triumph Hurdle hope, but thankfully Vauban took that mantle. Winner of his only run, a 11f maiden flat race (14 runners) at one of the French provincial tracks although the form hasn't been franked (won easy to be fair). Well related and will be dual-purpose, possibly a Ballymore type more than Supreme (Willie has Facile Vega for the latter) and at 33/1 could be worth a fun EW bet for the race. Well related (NH) been backed for his hurdle debut and vibes from the stable are positive, so a win bet and lay of High Definition for me.
Leopardstown 1.10
I've been looking forward to seeing Lozziemouth run this afternoon and she could be a bet after her impressive win in a G3 at Fairyhouse where she looked the winner turning in. Still lightly speeded (a little sketchy over flights at times) but if she wins today has a great chance of winning the Triumph Hurdle for WPM/Ricci after the same with Vauban last year.
Kempton 1.20
See lay post above
Kempton 1.55
Constitution Hill will win based on form and ratings, not much to be added really. If so, he will make a healthy reduction in my GB festive season expenses, but if not, i will take it on the chin as always.
Kempton 2.30
I think this race is more open than the betting may suggest, but i've always fancied Bravemansgame to win it, even though i like the likely favorite L'Homme Presse (i saw him win the Scilly Isles Novices at Sandown, the day Vauban won in Ireland). This is his gold cup and he's been trained with today in mind, whereas his main rival could win at Cheltenham; i'm not sure this sharp track will suit and he has a tendency to jump to the left on occasion. The pace will be decent with Ahoy Senor and Frodon up front and BMG could sit in behind this pair before going on 2 fences out, just as he did on the same card last year. I will be a layer on L'Homme Presse.
Good luck and have a nice Boxing day all.
LoyalHoncho and The Dragon
Thank you for your selections and good luck to both.
I presume that you didn't lay HD at that drifting price, went off over 8/1 on here.
Stewart
No i didn't, but i did back Parmenion in a double with Lozziemouth. I guess some backers will be surprised at the SP, he was the tissue favourite originally.
No i didn't, but i did back Parmenion in a double with Lozziemouth. I guess some backers will be surprised at the SP, he was the tissue favourite originally.
so a win bet and lay of High Definition for me.
Stewart
No i didn't
haway andrew..poor show.
Stewart
No i didn't
haway andrew..poor show.
Steve, agreed, but it was much less when i typed out my posts and there's no way i would lay it at over 8
without knowing how these horses are doing at home i dont understand anyone wanting to lay 7/2 a decent gr1 horse against a maiden winner?
Dec 26, 2022 -- 10:32AM, Andrew.in.Sweden wrote:
Lay PostKempton 2.30 - McFabulousA 8 year old Milan gelding trained by Paul Nicholls at Ditcheat, SomersetDam was unraced, but has thrown 3 offspring in total including Waiting Patiently.Paul Nicholls best chance of a winner in his eyes and he may be right, but i have my doubts. Acting on the track may not be an issue, but is he a true 3 miler even around here. Won 2 from 3 over fences (PU on debut) but the field at Exeter fell apart with a faller at the first, badly hampering another, Unexpected Party who has been well beaten since (albeit by Jonbon). This one was in contention until the 2nd last where i feel fitness told. He won well over further at Newbury, but in my opinion his 2 rivals didn't show their best at all (Thyme Hill jumped poorly). 2 of his rivals are unbeaten, albeit very few runs.8 years old is late enough to start chasing and although he's finished a chase twice, Kempton can be tricky for a novice and a couple of his younger rivals may have more scope. At 15/8 he's short enough in a half decent field and i feel there are enough doubts, hence the lay selection.Lay @ 3.30Good luck all.
WD Andrew
Andrew, well done today, expect you are hoping Vauban turns up Thursday.
Good afternoon Guys,
Thank you for the posts.
A decent day for the thread yesterday after a poor start with the odds-on jolly Parmenion (back) beaten by High Definition (lay) in the opener. Thereafter it was all good with Lozziemouth (4/5) and Bravemansgame (11/4) winning with lays of McFabulous (7/4f) and L'Homme Presse (9/4f) also paying out.
No need to mention Constitution Hill, we all knew it was going to win and thankfully the sketchy jump at the 2nd last flight didn't turn out any worse. Onwards and upwards for the Champion Hurdle where he could start the shortest odds ever for the race.
Unfortunately, i left myself open to valid criticism by stating i didn't lay High Definition myself (response to Stewarts Rise) but it is what it is. I posted i would be, but simply changed my mind later due to the drift (BSP 9.94) and it's 1.01 most on here have done the same at some time. I would have been happy to lay at 7/2, but irrespective of the odds i got it wrong on this thread (both in the race actually).
On to this afternoon there are a few shorties that look good at Kempton and Leopardstown, but i've already backed Bass Rock (Wetherby 1.35) who won really well on chase debut LTO after a lengthy break. Conceding weight to all bar one, but is lightly raced overall and looks a half decent novice in the making. A reasonable field and odds of 2.18 are fair enough.
In the Welsh GN (Chepstow 2.50) i like the Irish challenger The Big Dog who although being top weight could still be well handicapped here. Has a penalty for winning LTO, but this is negated by conditions of the race/top weight (runs off 153, but since upped to 158). PU in this race last year, but it was a slog and only 5 finished from the original 20. Conditions will not be so arduous this afternoon and at odds of 7.40 and 3.05 for 3/TBP he may be worth a small bet.
Good luck and have a nice Tuesday all.
Ashleigh
I'm a massive fan of Vauban as you know (and for obvious reason) but he has a hard task on Thursday and i doubt i will be backing him. I'll write the race up on the day.
I noticed one we used to follow, Five Star Getaway is running at Kempton (3.09) this afternoon, a race he won last year off the same mark. Could go well (trainer also has Kittys Light).
Thank you for the posts.
A decent day for the thread yesterday after a poor start with the odds-on jolly Parmenion (back) beaten by High Definition (lay) in the opener. Thereafter it was all good with Lozziemouth (4/5) and Bravemansgame (11/4) winning with lays of McFabulous (7/4f) and L'Homme Presse (9/4f) also paying out.
No need to mention Constitution Hill, we all knew it was going to win and thankfully the sketchy jump at the 2nd last flight didn't turn out any worse. Onwards and upwards for the Champion Hurdle where he could start the shortest odds ever for the race.
Unfortunately, i left myself open to valid criticism by stating i didn't lay High Definition myself (response to Stewarts Rise) but it is what it is. I posted i would be, but simply changed my mind later due to the drift (BSP 9.94) and it's 1.01 most on here have done the same at some time. I would have been happy to lay at 7/2, but irrespective of the odds i got it wrong on this thread (both in the race actually).
On to this afternoon there are a few shorties that look good at Kempton and Leopardstown, but i've already backed Bass Rock (Wetherby 1.35) who won really well on chase debut LTO after a lengthy break. Conceding weight to all bar one, but is lightly raced overall and looks a half decent novice in the making. A reasonable field and odds of 2.18 are fair enough.
In the Welsh GN (Chepstow 2.50) i like the Irish challenger The Big Dog who although being top weight could still be well handicapped here. Has a penalty for winning LTO, but this is negated by conditions of the race/top weight (runs off 153, but since upped to 158). PU in this race last year, but it was a slog and only 5 finished from the original 20. Conditions will not be so arduous this afternoon and at odds of 7.40 and 3.05 for 3/TBP he may be worth a small bet.
Good luck and have a nice Tuesday all.
Ashleigh
I'm a massive fan of Vauban as you know (and for obvious reason) but he has a hard task on Thursday and i doubt i will be backing him. I'll write the race up on the day.
I noticed one we used to follow, Five Star Getaway is running at Kempton (3.09) this afternoon, a race he won last year off the same mark. Could go well (trainer also has Kittys Light).
yes Andrew, thought five Star Getaway was a big eyecatcher in the Becher Chase, just run out of steam on the run in. no doubt targeted this race and have backed him.
Not sure if its relevant or not but I have backed five star getaway as well.
Good luck all.
Good luck all.
Ashleigh/Glasgow
If you're both backing Five Star Getaway, it must be nailed on
I left it, but had a tenner EW (4 places) on Kittys Light at 18/1 (WH) for a fun bet. Ran off 147 in the race last year, now on 137 and the same 10 lb better off with FSG for 13.5L.
Good luck guys.
If you're both backing Five Star Getaway, it must be nailed on
I left it, but had a tenner EW (4 places) on Kittys Light at 18/1 (WH) for a fun bet. Ran off 147 in the race last year, now on 137 and the same 10 lb better off with FSG for 13.5L.
Good luck guys.
Dec 27, 2022 -- 1:41PM, GLASGOWCALLING wrote:
Not sure if its relevant or not but I have backed five star getaway as well. Good luck all.
Simon Rowlands (ATR) has tipped FSG.
At Doncaster this afternoon, Zambella is odds on to win the Mares Listed Chase at 3:10. In her career to date, she has won nine races and every single one has been on ground that was either soft or heavy. She's been a beaten favourite four times on good to soft, including races in which she started at 4/11 and 8/13.
Doncaster is officially good, good to soft in places. So I'll be watching the earlier races to judge how accurate that going report is, and to check on the weather. If the sun is shining, there's a good chance that the four fences in the home straight will be bypassed on both circuits, turning this £75k race into a farce - but at least it will be shown on ITV, which presumably explains the timing.
Her rivals all have something to prove on recent form, but Pink Legend, who hates soft ground, will relish conditions if they are as advertised and she can be forgiven her failure to handle the male opposition in a Grade 2 chase last time.
Doncaster is officially good, good to soft in places. So I'll be watching the earlier races to judge how accurate that going report is, and to check on the weather. If the sun is shining, there's a good chance that the four fences in the home straight will be bypassed on both circuits, turning this £75k race into a farce - but at least it will be shown on ITV, which presumably explains the timing.
Her rivals all have something to prove on recent form, but Pink Legend, who hates soft ground, will relish conditions if they are as advertised and she can be forgiven her failure to handle the male opposition in a Grade 2 chase last time.
Zambella is also one of my Lay bets with 21 form & under 6.00 BFSP, that’s hopefully given it the kiss of death.
I have also backed Pink Legend for the reasons outlined by Anorak
Good morning Guys,
Thank you for the posts.
Regular readers will know which race i'm looking forward to this afternoon with Vauban in the Matheson field (Leopardstown 2.20). I won a nice few quid on him last season backing him in every run (including ante-post on the Triumph before he had jumped a twig) but i doubt i will be backing him later, and if i do, only a score win for sentiment sake (not the best way to bet it has to be said).
It will almost certainly be a tactical race, with exception of the outsider (who will be ignored) the field generally like to come off the pace with a run. If it turned into a sprint from the final flight and they were all 100% fit, i would be all over Vauban (good turn of foot) but vibes from the stable haven't exactly been positive about him, although it wouldn't be the first occasion a second string has won from this stable. WPM seems bullish about State Man, but he has to be significantly impressive to have any chance against the current CH favourite. I think he's the more likely winner, but not a race to lump on unless you have a very positive view.
In the novice chase (Leopardstown 1.45) the odds compilers have erred a little in my eyes, i feel the WPM runner Gaillard Du Mesnil should be favourite over Three Stripe Life especially over this long trip. Of course he's still a chase maiden, but has ran well enough in some top class races and was certainly on a par with his main rival over hurdles. He strikes me as the more likely of the pair to win a few decent staying races.
Still looking for a lay selection as only 3 days left in the year.
Alan
What a coincidence you posting about Zambella as a few of us were discussing this one on my WhatApp group yesterday, i mentioned she was a better bet than State Man (both were 10/11 at the time). I appreciate her better form is on soft/heavy as you intimated (ran well at Perth on good) but she's a honest mare and rarely runs a poor race.
I expect her to make all and have backed her already, albeit only a sensible stake, she's not a given by any means.
Good luck and have a nice Thursday all.
Thank you for the posts.
Regular readers will know which race i'm looking forward to this afternoon with Vauban in the Matheson field (Leopardstown 2.20). I won a nice few quid on him last season backing him in every run (including ante-post on the Triumph before he had jumped a twig) but i doubt i will be backing him later, and if i do, only a score win for sentiment sake (not the best way to bet it has to be said).
It will almost certainly be a tactical race, with exception of the outsider (who will be ignored) the field generally like to come off the pace with a run. If it turned into a sprint from the final flight and they were all 100% fit, i would be all over Vauban (good turn of foot) but vibes from the stable haven't exactly been positive about him, although it wouldn't be the first occasion a second string has won from this stable. WPM seems bullish about State Man, but he has to be significantly impressive to have any chance against the current CH favourite. I think he's the more likely winner, but not a race to lump on unless you have a very positive view.
In the novice chase (Leopardstown 1.45) the odds compilers have erred a little in my eyes, i feel the WPM runner Gaillard Du Mesnil should be favourite over Three Stripe Life especially over this long trip. Of course he's still a chase maiden, but has ran well enough in some top class races and was certainly on a par with his main rival over hurdles. He strikes me as the more likely of the pair to win a few decent staying races.
Still looking for a lay selection as only 3 days left in the year.
Alan
What a coincidence you posting about Zambella as a few of us were discussing this one on my WhatApp group yesterday, i mentioned she was a better bet than State Man (both were 10/11 at the time). I appreciate her better form is on soft/heavy as you intimated (ran well at Perth on good) but she's a honest mare and rarely runs a poor race.
I expect her to make all and have backed her already, albeit only a sensible stake, she's not a given by any means.
Good luck and have a nice Thursday all.
Zambela is 3 out of 3 in December so it is her time of year.But how often do you get good ground in December?At the prices I have gone with Pink Legend EW.Have a good day all.
Sorry if i got you some grief Andrew, don't look in that regularly but know early on you said didn't lay above 5/2 i think, so naturally assumed you wouldn't lay High Definition at anything from 9/2-8/1 but this did make me chuckle!
Rico-Dangleflaps26 Dec 22 12:30
so a win bet and lay of High Definition for me.
Stewart
No i didn't
haway andrew..poor show.
Pots and kettles from rico i think, ask him if he recalls changing his mind about lumping on Baaeed!
Thought you'd stick with your fav horse of last season today though, Vauban especially at this price.
Rico-Dangleflaps26 Dec 22 12:30
so a win bet and lay of High Definition for me.
Stewart
No i didn't
haway andrew..poor show.
Pots and kettles from rico i think, ask him if he recalls changing his mind about lumping on Baaeed!
Thought you'd stick with your fav horse of last season today though, Vauban especially at this price.
Stewart
No worries, it wasn't a big deal and to be fair i deserved the criticism. I do lay above 5/2 (albeit not for PL selections) but very rarely at the odds the horse was later. If i had layed it, i would have said so.
For clarity, i haven't backed Vauban today, i'm actually surprised he didn't go to Limerick, but maybe WPM wants a CH sighter and he's already stated it will come on for the race. Mind you, irrespective of financial gains, i really do think he's a very good horse (needs to brush up his hurdling a little).
I've had a small win on Zambella.
No worries, it wasn't a big deal and to be fair i deserved the criticism. I do lay above 5/2 (albeit not for PL selections) but very rarely at the odds the horse was later. If i had layed it, i would have said so.
For clarity, i haven't backed Vauban today, i'm actually surprised he didn't go to Limerick, but maybe WPM wants a CH sighter and he's already stated it will come on for the race. Mind you, irrespective of financial gains, i really do think he's a very good horse (needs to brush up his hurdling a little).
I've had a small win on Zambella.
Pots and kettles from rico i think, ask him if he recalls changing his mind about lumping on Baaeed
clearly stated before off bet cancelled owning to state of the ground..didnt you see it?
clearly stated before off bet cancelled owning to state of the ground..didnt you see it?
Dec 29, 2022 -- 3:21PM, second again wrote:
Well done with Zambella Andrew.
Yeah, WD Andrew. 365 were doing a special boost to 6/4 so thought it rude not to.
W/D Andrew, never in doubt. The sort of 'race' that leaves you wondering what the other jockeys thought would happen if they gave the odds on favourite an uncontested lead!
Good afternoon Guys,
Many thanks for the posts, much appreciated as always. We all get it right and wrong, yesterday it was my turn to collect. I've always like the mare Zambella, genuine, jumps well and rarely runs a poor race, although she was aided by being given an uncontested lead ( sh was always going to front run).
On to this afternoon and after 4 festival days of quality racing we are left with bread and butter meetings. Only a couple i fancy as backs, the first another mare Lutinebella (Haydock 2.15) who will probably sit behind the pace making and likely favourite, She's A Saint. The latter has better form finishing runner-up in a listed class LTO, but she was beaten at 1/4 in her penultimate run and looks very one paced to me. I think my selection has more scope and a sharp track will suit, so at the odds (currently 3.25) i thought she was the bet.
Over at Wolverhampton (6.00) i thought the ex-AOB trained and well bred Giorgio Vasari was worth a small bet. 18 months ago this one was rated 97 and running in a G3, but has been poor since. Signs of a minor revival in his previous couple of runs with a win and 2nd. Up in trip but this shouldn't be an issue. Has drifted to around 3.85 that is a minor issue.
Good luck and have a nice Friday all.
Many thanks for the posts, much appreciated as always. We all get it right and wrong, yesterday it was my turn to collect. I've always like the mare Zambella, genuine, jumps well and rarely runs a poor race, although she was aided by being given an uncontested lead ( sh was always going to front run).
On to this afternoon and after 4 festival days of quality racing we are left with bread and butter meetings. Only a couple i fancy as backs, the first another mare Lutinebella (Haydock 2.15) who will probably sit behind the pace making and likely favourite, She's A Saint. The latter has better form finishing runner-up in a listed class LTO, but she was beaten at 1/4 in her penultimate run and looks very one paced to me. I think my selection has more scope and a sharp track will suit, so at the odds (currently 3.25) i thought she was the bet.
Over at Wolverhampton (6.00) i thought the ex-AOB trained and well bred Giorgio Vasari was worth a small bet. 18 months ago this one was rated 97 and running in a G3, but has been poor since. Signs of a minor revival in his previous couple of runs with a win and 2nd. Up in trip but this shouldn't be an issue. Has drifted to around 3.85 that is a minor issue.
Good luck and have a nice Friday all.
I have backed Sam's Adventure EW in the 3.00 Haydock this morning.He is a CD winner, he likes the ground and his handicap mark is fair if he can build on his last time out effort.I will follow you in on Lutinbella for an interest.
Pretty poor racing for a Saturday imo.
Going to lay some favourites today starting with Grievetana at 2.06 May be even better on today's softer going but we don't know for sure until we see it and I think PN's horses get their flu jab around now and often have a dip in form. Then I am going to lay Jet Powered at 1.38. Everytime Hendo runs one in Shiskin colours, it gets backed accordingly. No 5yr old or penalised winner of this race yet in 3 runnings. At these prices your financial risk is very low and there are plenty running for you. Will be pressing with Pikar and Hermes Allen later.
Good luck and Happy New Year.
Going to lay some favourites today starting with Grievetana at 2.06 May be even better on today's softer going but we don't know for sure until we see it and I think PN's horses get their flu jab around now and often have a dip in form. Then I am going to lay Jet Powered at 1.38. Everytime Hendo runs one in Shiskin colours, it gets backed accordingly. No 5yr old or penalised winner of this race yet in 3 runnings. At these prices your financial risk is very low and there are plenty running for you. Will be pressing with Pikar and Hermes Allen later.
Good luck and Happy New Year.
Good morning Guys,
A short post as i'm on a SWR train. Lutinebelle was poor yesterday, but the other selection Giorgio Vasari was better, albeit only runner-up (i backed to win).
Trusty, i agree the racing could be a little better (Newbury card is OK) but i have to hope you are wrong about Jet Powered as i backed it earlier and at better odds than current. Nico rode him like he knew he was on a good one LTO, travelled strongly, jumped well for a novice debutant and was coasting on tbe run in (hence tbe slowish tine). He looked decent to me.
Looking for a lay selection as it's last day of the year, so a new thread will start tomorrow.
Good luck and have a nice NY eve all,!
A short post as i'm on a SWR train. Lutinebelle was poor yesterday, but the other selection Giorgio Vasari was better, albeit only runner-up (i backed to win).
Trusty, i agree the racing could be a little better (Newbury card is OK) but i have to hope you are wrong about Jet Powered as i backed it earlier and at better odds than current. Nico rode him like he knew he was on a good one LTO, travelled strongly, jumped well for a novice debutant and was coasting on tbe run in (hence tbe slowish tine). He looked decent to me.
Looking for a lay selection as it's last day of the year, so a new thread will start tomorrow.
Good luck and have a nice NY eve all,!
Trusty, good luck with your other selections
Trusty, good luck with your other selections
VWD Trusty, a good lay and looked good from some way out.
Unbelievable that both were PLACE lays - was only looking for one to beat them!
Good morning Guys from a dreary looking West London (not in Walton now).
Probably my last post on this thread as i will create a new one for 2023 later.
I feel i neglected the original lay thread format last year with very few PL selections, but more so race day thoughts, part of this was simply due to my workload and i did consider if the threads had actually run their course. A poor run in the summer wasn't a help either, even though i recovered some of the losses with 5 (?) successful lays thereafter. Unlike previous years, there will be a loss of circa 208 GBP (pre-commission) no excuses, simply poor selections and nowhere near as many as 2018/2019. I will scroll back through the thread and update the PL status here.
Hopefully in 2023 i can redeem myself and concentrate more on PL lays.
A losing day for me yesterday, Jet Powered, probably the best backed runner of the day (i was on at 2/5) was poor and certainly not the same horse who won on the track LTO. Maybe soft ground was the reason; he folded tamely in my opinion. Not all bad, i've finished in front (overall) in the 6 betting days since i arrived on 22nd, although Constitution Hill on Monday was the good start i expected.
I'm staying here for several more days, maybe even to the weekend as i'm free from work until 9th January. I haven't got a return flight back to Germany yet anyway, as the KLM flight i arrived on has a return in March (after Cheltenham festival). I could always take a direct with Easy Jet, they are cheap enough although i would have to get to Gatwick.
I expect to be in Germany throughout 2023, i have a new PO for x hours that will take me beyond August at least. I plan to continue returning home to Sweden on a circa monthly basis.
A friend on my WhatsApp group has share in a filly with George Baker and is entered to run at Kempton on Friday, he's invited me to tag along, so if i'm here then that will be a first on 2 counts, never been to Kempton races, or in an owners enclosure.
VWD with your lay selections Trusty yesterday, hope you made a nice few bob.
Finally, many thanks to everyone that posted here in 2022, i know i use the words 'much appreciated' often, but it is, and there are some decent posters that do post here. In the meantime i wish you and your loved ones a Happy and Healthy 2023.
More racing topics on the new thread later.
Good luck and have a nice New Year Day all.
Probably my last post on this thread as i will create a new one for 2023 later.
I feel i neglected the original lay thread format last year with very few PL selections, but more so race day thoughts, part of this was simply due to my workload and i did consider if the threads had actually run their course. A poor run in the summer wasn't a help either, even though i recovered some of the losses with 5 (?) successful lays thereafter. Unlike previous years, there will be a loss of circa 208 GBP (pre-commission) no excuses, simply poor selections and nowhere near as many as 2018/2019. I will scroll back through the thread and update the PL status here.
Hopefully in 2023 i can redeem myself and concentrate more on PL lays.
A losing day for me yesterday, Jet Powered, probably the best backed runner of the day (i was on at 2/5) was poor and certainly not the same horse who won on the track LTO. Maybe soft ground was the reason; he folded tamely in my opinion. Not all bad, i've finished in front (overall) in the 6 betting days since i arrived on 22nd, although Constitution Hill on Monday was the good start i expected.
I'm staying here for several more days, maybe even to the weekend as i'm free from work until 9th January. I haven't got a return flight back to Germany yet anyway, as the KLM flight i arrived on has a return in March (after Cheltenham festival). I could always take a direct with Easy Jet, they are cheap enough although i would have to get to Gatwick.
I expect to be in Germany throughout 2023, i have a new PO for x hours that will take me beyond August at least. I plan to continue returning home to Sweden on a circa monthly basis.
A friend on my WhatsApp group has share in a filly with George Baker and is entered to run at Kempton on Friday, he's invited me to tag along, so if i'm here then that will be a first on 2 counts, never been to Kempton races, or in an owners enclosure.
VWD with your lay selections Trusty yesterday, hope you made a nice few bob.
Finally, many thanks to everyone that posted here in 2022, i know i use the words 'much appreciated' often, but it is, and there are some decent posters that do post here. In the meantime i wish you and your loved ones a Happy and Healthy 2023.
More racing topics on the new thread later.
Good luck and have a nice New Year Day all.
Happy New Year to you Andrew ,always good to read your posts ,whether its an opinion ,a lay,or a fancy ,all good ,look forward to more of the same in 2023.
Happy New Year Andrew and all positive contributors to the thread.
Hi Andrew
A link to all the results for 2022 is here
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WHfaou2KbsZWqMTpWGDiJY5T_kikH1r4V-p7_lsqMe4/edit#gid=1129741996
Thanks
A link to all the results for 2022 is here
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WHfaou2KbsZWqMTpWGDiJY5T_kikH1r4V-p7_lsqMe4/edit#gid=1129741996
Thanks
Mr Spreadsheet
Many thanks for posting table of results, much appreciated. I hold my hands up, far too few PL selections and a loss of just over 200 GBP in 2023 is poor comparing to profitable years since April 2018. The status may have looked different if i had included all lay selections, but i'm not going to scroll through and check, it's not important anyway and i'm not looking for mitigation, we all get it right and wrong.
2023 will be different (says me with crossed fingers).
PHS
Many thanks for posting table of results, much appreciated. I hold my hands up, far too few PL selections and a loss of just over 200 GBP in 2023 is poor comparing to profitable years since April 2018. The status may have looked different if i had included all lay selections, but i'm not going to scroll through and check, it's not important anyway and i'm not looking for mitigation, we all get it right and wrong.
2023 will be different (says me with crossed fingers).
PHS
Snowynoon and PHS
Thanks for earlier posts, Happy New Year to you both.
Thanks for earlier posts, Happy New Year to you both.
Well done Ikeaman for taking the hint of direct flights and only a moron would go via Schiphol!!!
Good morning Guys,
A busy past few days visiting family/friends and my last full day in West London before returning to Germany tomorrow morning.
I haven't had chance to start the new 2023 lay thread as i want to update the PL status (including a small correction for 2019) hence a few words here. I'm a little pushed for time anyway as i'm off to Kempton later, one of my WhatsApp group has a share in a George Baker trained, 3 year old filly, Sense Of Security running there this afternoon and he's invited me along. A couple of firsts for me, never been to Kempton racecourse before (or any AW track in GB for that matter) or in an owners area, so i'm really looking forward to it. Hopefully she runs well for connections.
Several odds-on runners (4) at the meeting, but they don't look bombproof by any means, so betting wise, it will be a low-key meeting for me, but a nice afternoon out.
I was going to put up Kincardine (3.30 Ludlow) as my first 2023 PL lay selection, but it's drifted over 4 now, so way above my thread limit (5/2).
I have backed one runner already Spirit Daunou in the opener at the same meeting. A reasonable run on debut (0.75L runner-up, the rest well beaten) was followed by a win at Huntingdon where nothing went right for him (previous winner behind) and i think he will make all this afternoon and win. Currently odds of 2.08 on here.
Good luck and have a nice Friday all.
A busy past few days visiting family/friends and my last full day in West London before returning to Germany tomorrow morning.
I haven't had chance to start the new 2023 lay thread as i want to update the PL status (including a small correction for 2019) hence a few words here. I'm a little pushed for time anyway as i'm off to Kempton later, one of my WhatsApp group has a share in a George Baker trained, 3 year old filly, Sense Of Security running there this afternoon and he's invited me along. A couple of firsts for me, never been to Kempton racecourse before (or any AW track in GB for that matter) or in an owners area, so i'm really looking forward to it. Hopefully she runs well for connections.
Several odds-on runners (4) at the meeting, but they don't look bombproof by any means, so betting wise, it will be a low-key meeting for me, but a nice afternoon out.
I was going to put up Kincardine (3.30 Ludlow) as my first 2023 PL lay selection, but it's drifted over 4 now, so way above my thread limit (5/2).
I have backed one runner already Spirit Daunou in the opener at the same meeting. A reasonable run on debut (0.75L runner-up, the rest well beaten) was followed by a win at Huntingdon where nothing went right for him (previous winner behind) and i think he will make all this afternoon and win. Currently odds of 2.08 on here.
Good luck and have a nice Friday all.
Thanks AIS as always, great call. Kincardine went as low as 2.04 in running.
Good evening Guys,
A very nice afternoon as an owners guest at Kempton with two syndicate owners (Sense Of Security) and George Baker the trainer. Snacks, refreshments (including a Guinness) and a 2 course lunch (the 4 of us) all courtesy of the Jockey Club. A chat with jockey Trevor Whelan and a photo with Hollie, waitress service, no crowds or queue for betting, this is the way to go racing.
A first for me as a guest and Kempton another course i can tick off, although to be honest i haven't been to that many in GB anyway (probably more in other countries).
The filly ran well finishing 3rd, only tiring in the final furlong, beaten by a well handicapped runner (won cosily) and although still a maiden, she will win in time.
Flying back to München tomorrow morning and with a bit of luck i could arrive in time to watch the Tolworth on ITV (Lufthansa permitting). I doubt i'll be back in GB for several weeks, no definite plans yet, but i've had a sufficient English food fix to last me a good while (arrived 22nd).
Good luck and have a nice evening all.
PHS/Gazza
Many thanks.
Spirit Daunou (10/11) did the business easily enough and made it a good start to my day, backed on here and in the Tote shop at Kempton. I didn't lay Kincardine, but if it had been backed to under 5/2, it would have been a first 2023 lay post as i intimated.
New thread tomorrow.
A very nice afternoon as an owners guest at Kempton with two syndicate owners (Sense Of Security) and George Baker the trainer. Snacks, refreshments (including a Guinness) and a 2 course lunch (the 4 of us) all courtesy of the Jockey Club. A chat with jockey Trevor Whelan and a photo with Hollie, waitress service, no crowds or queue for betting, this is the way to go racing.
A first for me as a guest and Kempton another course i can tick off, although to be honest i haven't been to that many in GB anyway (probably more in other countries).
The filly ran well finishing 3rd, only tiring in the final furlong, beaten by a well handicapped runner (won cosily) and although still a maiden, she will win in time.
Flying back to München tomorrow morning and with a bit of luck i could arrive in time to watch the Tolworth on ITV (Lufthansa permitting). I doubt i'll be back in GB for several weeks, no definite plans yet, but i've had a sufficient English food fix to last me a good while (arrived 22nd).
Good luck and have a nice evening all.
PHS/Gazza
Many thanks.
Spirit Daunou (10/11) did the business easily enough and made it a good start to my day, backed on here and in the Tote shop at Kempton. I didn't lay Kincardine, but if it had been backed to under 5/2, it would have been a first 2023 lay post as i intimated.
New thread tomorrow.
POST the photo and revisit your previous bollox about KLM and Easyjet? Make Quixall look honest and that is pushing it!!!!?
I was at Moorfields Hospital today with my wife waiting for my Cataract appointment and watching the Kempton 1:45 Sense Of Security on my phone with just 2 to load.
Nurse called my name and I had to rely on Mrs H’s version of events which was pretty good I have to say.
Don’t you just love the NHS efficiency.
Nurse called my name and I had to rely on Mrs H’s version of events which was pretty good I have to say.
Don’t you just love the NHS efficiency.
Have laid Authorised Speed again today at 2.7. Horse can't jump and up in grade again today Jamie won't get away with it this time imvho. Glad to have the field running for me and thought Blow My Wad at 40.0 was most interesting e/w.
GL.
GL.
Morning All,
I'm a layer of the opening favourite at Sandown, Bo Zenith. If you watch his debut win, it was a rather odd race by normal French standards with a runaway leader 30L clear jumping four out. Bo Zenith was the only one to chase him from that far out and that proved a winning tactic, but the bunch were closing on him at the finish. He also has an action that suggests he isn't going to relish the soft ground at Sandown. He's the one in black with a white hoop:
https://www.equidia.fr/courses/2022-04-03/R1/C1
Of course the opposition today looks feeble and the lay may prove futile, but it won't cost much at under 1.3. Mombasa was an expensive flop first time at Fontwell, but he had better form in France than Bo Zenith.
I'm a layer of the opening favourite at Sandown, Bo Zenith. If you watch his debut win, it was a rather odd race by normal French standards with a runaway leader 30L clear jumping four out. Bo Zenith was the only one to chase him from that far out and that proved a winning tactic, but the bunch were closing on him at the finish. He also has an action that suggests he isn't going to relish the soft ground at Sandown. He's the one in black with a white hoop:
https://www.equidia.fr/courses/2022-04-03/R1/C1
Of course the opposition today looks feeble and the lay may prove futile, but it won't cost much at under 1.3. Mombasa was an expensive flop first time at Fontwell, but he had better form in France than Bo Zenith.
Like Bo Zenith,but I don’t do form,I just look at my dart board,I’ll just watch the race with interest.
Nice one Alan, looked absolutely useless pretty much most of the way.
VWd Alan,rather than lay him I backed Mombasa @ 13/2
Thanks gents - I'm very cynical about these French horses bought for big money after winning a 3yo hurdle in April. If they're really that good, I'm like Gene Hackman, wondering why are the French Connections so keen to sell. The list of expensive imported failures this season is getting longer each month.
Incredibly was also a PLACE lay but didn't look at that before the race. VWD.
You have to say G.Moore is in the top 10 for trainers you want to lay at odds-on especially at the premier tracks.
You have to say G.Moore is in the top 10 for trainers you want to lay at odds-on especially at the premier tracks.
Great call Anorak and another fantastic lay Trusty, didn't even place - well done....
Good morning Guys,
Many thanks to all for posting in my absence, much appreciated as always.
VWD Alan, good analysis and valid reasoning to get a 4/11f well beaten. Additional WD to Trusty with another shortie after the Nicky Henderson hot-pot (2/7f) earlier in the week.
Hope you both made plenty (not Gary Moore fans then).
My 11.10 flight was delayed (albeit only around 40 minutes) but immigration and slow baggage collection meant i didn't get to see much racing at all, but i managed to see last few flights of the Tolworth. I doubt we saw anything out of the ordinary there.
Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
Many thanks to all for posting in my absence, much appreciated as always.
VWD Alan, good analysis and valid reasoning to get a 4/11f well beaten. Additional WD to Trusty with another shortie after the Nicky Henderson hot-pot (2/7f) earlier in the week.
Hope you both made plenty (not Gary Moore fans then
).My 11.10 flight was delayed (albeit only around 40 minutes) but immigration and slow baggage collection meant i didn't get to see much racing at all, but i managed to see last few flights of the Tolworth. I doubt we saw anything out of the ordinary there.
Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
Like G Moore but between 8/1 and 12/1 not short price and especially not odds-on.
Just scanned through today's racing at Taunton and P Nichols has two unraced 4yr olds in each division of the maiden. To date there have been 7 four year old runners with no wins, both are around 1/2 on and my initial thoughts was to lay both and I probably will for small fun bet but thought I would try an e/w double on Park D'Amour and Danton at 8/1 and 7/2.
Just scanned through today's racing at Taunton and P Nichols has two unraced 4yr olds in each division of the maiden. To date there have been 7 four year old runners with no wins, both are around 1/2 on and my initial thoughts was to lay both and I probably will for small fun bet but thought I would try an e/w double on Park D'Amour and Danton at 8/1 and 7/2.
The form of the race won by Afadil in France, a maiden over 1m3f at Craon, in no way justifies his 255,000 euros price tag. The next four finishers in that race now have career records on the flat of 0/9, 0/10, 0/4, and 0/15. The magic words 'bred by the Aga Khan' seemed to have persuaded the buyers to go overboard, but the success rate of horses with that background is nothing like as good as it was ten plus years ago.
He might well win today as the opposition are almost all running to get a low handicap mark, but he wouldn't be one to follow when stepped up in class.
To be fair, the 5th placed horse did win a maiden hurdle last month, but it might have been the worst one run at Craon for quite some time, as they took 5m 17s to cover 2m 1f, pretty slow even on heavy ground.
He might well win today as the opposition are almost all running to get a low handicap mark, but he wouldn't be one to follow when stepped up in class.
To be fair, the 5th placed horse did win a maiden hurdle last month, but it might have been the worst one run at Craon for quite some time, as they took 5m 17s to cover 2m 1f, pretty slow even on heavy ground.
Many thanks for the posts Alan and Trusty, much appreciated.
A new thread is up, so i will copy and paste your comments above into the 2023 one.
A new thread is up, so i will copy and paste your comments above into the 2023 one.
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