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Andrew.in.Sweden
09 Jan 22 08:31
Joined:
Date Joined: 22 Apr 19
| Topic/replies: 5,260 | Blogger: Andrew.in.Sweden's blog
Good morning Guys,

I don't need to start this thread by explaining history behind it (readers know it anyway) so lets get straight into the concept for those that may not be familiar.

Conditions of each Lay Post will be the same as always (since April 2018). Only one post in any given day (to prevent chasing) bookmaker odds of 5/2 or under and matched on here to win a level stake of £50. A copy of the bet will be shown as part of the post together with what i consider a reasonable reasoning for the lay selection. For complete transparency i will post the P/L status post race (i neglected this in latter part of 2021).

The first 4 threads (2 in 2018) were profitable with a total gain of £2242 (pre-commission) to a level £50 stake (breakdown below). I didn't replicate this level in 2021, in fact i consider it a poor effort on my part and only 28 P/L selections in the year (workload often gets in the way). Compare this to 2018 when there were 66 in 70 consecutive days (4 x NR's) although i had far more time on my hands in those days.

Pre-commission there was sufficient profit in 2021 to buy a Toblerone bar and a small loss at 2% (the figure that counts of course). This was unfortunate as i suspect the many random lays (not counted) would have yielded a reasonable profit. To negate this in 2022 whenever a lay(s) is/are posted, one of them will be titled Lay Post and subject to a running P/L (as previous threads).

As on all my lay threads everyone is more than welcome to post on whatever topic, horse racing or otherwise, banter is a bonus and all i politely request is no bickering or trolling please. It was noticeable on the previous couple of threads there are those that like to antagonise and dispute posted facts, replying with infantile reasoning (and untruths) but sadly this is a reflection of social media we know today.

My previous lay threads record

Andrews Daily Lay Thread 2018 (Spring/Summer)
Total 66 selections
Success 55/66
Strike rate 83%
Overall profit +£1657 to level stake £50

Andrews Random Daily Lay Thread 2018 (late Summer/Winter)
Total 64 selections
Success 46/64
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£425 to level stake £50

Andrews Daily Lay Thread 2019 (reduced selections)
Total 78 selections
Success 56/78
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£81 to level stake £50

Andrews Random Lay Thread 2020 (reduced selections)
Total 36 selections
Success 25/36
Strike rate 69%
Overall profit +£79 to level stake £50

Andrews 2021 Lay Thread (reduced selections)
I will scroll back, update the thread and post here.

Good luck to all readers in 2022.
Pause Switch to Standard View Andrews 2022 Lay Thread
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Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 12, 2022 2:48 PM BST
Stewarts,

Good luck with the lay, i haven't seen much of the race-cards today but at least you put reasoning. Laying is not an easy game and you need a high a strike rate of course.

I think Laura Morgan's The Vollan is well handicapped and worth a bet this evening (Southwell 8.40). Lightly raced and improving, won easy LTO and was unlucky in his penultimate race.
Report stewarts rise July 12, 2022 3:29 PM BST
Wasn't hiding away honestly, got stuck in live view, as I said, horses make fools of all of us, treble up!Laugh
Report stewarts rise July 12, 2022 6:49 PM BST
Well done Andrew, easy winner.
Report the numbers seven July 12, 2022 10:42 PM BST
WD Andrew, won like a nice summer jumper, could go in again.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 13, 2022 9:24 AM BST
Stewarts rise/the numbers seven

Thank you.

An easy win and never really looked in danger (a couple of jumping errors aside). I checked to see if there were any future entries before being reassessed by the handicapper, but none to date.

I like Laura Morgan as a trainer and she certainly knows how to rejuvenate them, The Vollan being a typical example although he appeared well handicapped in recent runs, his chase mark when Charlie Longsden had him was 122 (won off 103, 105 and 114 for Laura). Should have been on a 4 timer as he was unlucky 3 runs ago.

Clear The Runway (ex-Philp Rothwell) is another she’s worked wonders with, going from 98 to 135 (chase) and winner of 6 from his last 8 runs.

Keep an eye out for Licklighter running in the Summer plate at Market Rasen on Saturday, a decent grade 3 chase. I’m not suggesting he will win, but could run into a place off 127 at maybe 20+ odds on here. Course winner LTO over hurdles.

Good luck and have a nice Wednesday all.
Report brigust1 July 14, 2022 8:39 AM BST
Good morning Andrew. I agree with the basics of what you refer to in the July Cup but by such fine margins you win and lose. The first 5 favourites at Newmarket all ran at Ascot and all bar Flaming Rib possibly never benefitted from the faster racecourse. If you check the 4th and fifth horses at Newmarket they finished closer here than at Ascot where they also raced prominently but were possibly beaten further on the stiffer racecourse at Ascot. Being a race filled with Ascot winners and close finishers this wasn't necessarily a good example but they were all beaten, nonetheless. And it may be just another small pointer to add to the tool box. 

I have just returned from a meeting at York where the Ebor meeting was agreed. I may see you there. Keep up the good work.
Report stewarts rise July 14, 2022 6:31 PM BST
Haven't i read on here a while ago that Andrew was keen on a french horse Raclette before, running in a G2 at 6.33.
Report stewarts rise July 14, 2022 6:39 PM BST
Hope you kept the faith Andrew.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 15, 2022 10:00 AM BST
Good morning Guys

Stewarts Rise

Correct, Raclette was the filly that beat Welwal impressively at Chantilly last year, the latter was one i mentioned after he won on debut. Alan and i subsequently discussed her on occasion. She appears to have regained form with a listed win in her penultimate race and a G2 last night, yet another group race winner by the sire who is on the way to becoming the new Galileo.

Did i back her ? Not a cent Sad. I knew she was running, but didn’t bother with a bet.

I noticed the Hughie Morrison trained Quickthorn won the other G2 on the Longchamp card in a time of almost 4 seconds fast (compared to standard) not bad on good/soft going Wink

Laurie

I’ve never been to the York meeting and it’s unlikely i will this year, it’s a fair bit of traveling for me as i generally stay in the London area when i’m over. Ascot (KG+QEII) and Goodwood (Sussex stakes) are also non-starters for me as i’m back home in Sweden next weekend although i expect to be over in August. One meeting I will almost certainly going to (maybe meeting with others on here) is the Arc trials day at Longchamp on September 11th. A good afternoon of group card racing and only €20 in the main grandstand. I went last year, but it was subject to Covid restrictions that i guess are not in place now.

More later

Good luck and have a nice Friday all.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 15, 2022 10:01 AM BST
travelling (auto text) Wink
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 16, 2022 1:21 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

A few muses for this afternoon albeit a shorter post than often as i want to enjoy the sunny weather (not as extreme as England).

After Super Saturday last week there are no less than 9 meetings in GB/Ireland (and another in France) today albeit more akin to Sorrowful Saturday, none exactly inspiring anywhere to be honest, even the Irish Oaks (Curragh 3.45) appears to be a poor Group 2 at best although i expect the favourite Magical Lagoon to win.

At Newmarket (3.22) i thought the progressive filly Eternal Pearl could take the step up to listed company in her stride after an impressive 7L win LTO (odds-on in a minor novices to be fair) and another one for shortie backers is Julia Augusta making her handicap debut at Newbury (4.05). She looks better than a 90 rated. Odds of 2.78 and 2.26 respectively, i think both will win.

I mentioned the Laura Morgan trained Linklighter on here a few days ago, a runner in the Summer Plate at Market Rasen (3.14). Whilst i don't expect him to win i think current odds of 50/1 (75 on here) are insulting to connections (albeit maybe a positive to place punters). Showed he retains his form with an easy hurdle win over the course LTO and his chase record is better. Plenty of pace in the field and i expect him to be among them; off a mark of 127 he could run into one of the minor places.

A better chance EW is one regular readers know i like Chil Chil an admirable, honest mare that always gives her best and makes her season debut in a G3 sprint at Newbury. Hasn't raced for over 10 months but her record fresh is 1-2-2-1. Currently odds of 14 on here.

As for a lay, i was looking at one in particular last night that i may have posted as a lay post Verreaux Angel at Chester (2.33) but she has drifted to 3.80 since. Since winning on the AW last year (class 5) and raised to a mark of 77, she has run off the same rating in 8 of her 11 races (winning once in similar class off the same mark). Class 4 this afternoon, up in trip slightly, top weight (reduced by a decent apprentice). It looks a tricky handicap and the earlier 2/1 was short enough.

Tom Marquand has several mounts at Newbury, then makes a flight to Saint Cloud for a single ride on My Prospero in the G3 (up in trip that may suit).

No major bet for me as Emily Upjohn is a NR (she was a good thing) so all small stakes. Maybe more later.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.
Report hologon July 16, 2022 2:37 PM BST
Well done with the lay Andrew
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 17, 2022 12:54 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

Hologon

Thank you, a pity about the drift (SP 100/30) but out my control of course.

Magical Lagoon and Eternal Pearl both won @ 5/4 ensuring a profit and the latter did really well having to wait for a opening but quickened nicely in the final furlong, value for more than the 0.75L winning distance. This was a big step from a class 5 novice win in her penultimate run and she's progressing well, a small group win is not out of the question this season.

Julia Augusta was disappointing on handicap debut and although My Prospero looked good on paper (won in France) i didn't back him.

Magical Lagoon won the Irish Oaks in similar fashion to her Ribblesdale win at Royal Ascot and no matter what is said about the form, she's certainly very resolute, staying on very well when the runner-up Toy looked dangerous at the furlong pole. I think most of us think Emily Upjohn would have hosed up and without her in the field the race didn't take a lot of winning. In the previous 5 years, winners have included Enable, Sea Of Class and Snowfall, all of which would have won yesterday's race with me as a pillion passenger.

Watching the Opening Show yesterday it was clear Oli et all would be discussing new whip rules and i totally agree with Richard Hoiles assertion they are not punter friendly. I'm not qualified to give an opinion on direction of the whip action, or how many taps should be acceptable (and i suspect some of those involved in the decision aren't either) but of course consideration has to be given to welfare of the horses, this is without question. As an engineer looking at the issue, why can't a 'soft' device be designed and do away with a restriction on use of it, surely there are suitable materials available that could induce a reaction from the horse, without it being harmful.

GB racing is much of a muchness this afternoon typical of a Sunday, although group races at the Curragh and Chantilly add some quality. There wasn't anything that jumped off the pages when i looked earlier, but one i am interested in backing at the latter meeting is the Michael Stoute trained Potapova (3.55) in part because i backed her LTO when she was unplaced, but i think we can forgive the run, she was far too keen, probably didn't stay the 10f and i'm not sure she actually enjoyed the Tapeta surface. Back on turf and down in trip today with one of my favourite jockeys on board (Colin Keane) i think she can get some winning Black Type on her CV, but has to behave at the stalls. Currently trading around 7.0 on here.

Going against a Tom Marquand/William Haggas short price favorite (13/8) is a risk such is the form they are in, but Purplepay will be experiencing summer ground for the first time and breeding certainly suggests an ease in the going could be a positive. Highest rated, but this is not a gimme for her by any means although i'm not going to lay her.

Ryan Moore stays in Ireland (rightly so given his rides) even though the Coolmore owned Blackbeard is a shade of odds-on for the G2 Prix Robert Papin at Chantilly (1.33) but i wouldn't want to be lumping on this one. An odd jockey booking as well.

Ryan could have a decent day and is there a better bred filly running anywhere than Over The Rainbow who looks to have a favourite's chance of winning (4.30). She will have learnt a lot from her debut run over CD when runner-up and although it's a 3 year old maiden (not the best betting races) i think she will win.

I'm back home to Linköping next week and for the first time taking a train all the way, well 3 trains actually, via Hamburg and Copenhagen. Setting off late Thursday afternoon, arrive early Friday, flying back late Sunday. It's more a one-off mode of transport, but i'm curious what such a rail journey is like and i do get to have breakfast and a few hours in Copenhagen although this is not a novelty.

I'm hoping to get to England next month, but not sure which meeting. Looking further ahead i'm almost certainly going to the Arc Trials at Longchamp in September and it's possible a couple of posters i go racing with may be joining me. I went last year and it's generally a good card, the wonderful mare Alpinista (saw her at München last year) is a possible, as is Verry Elleegant, the Melbourne Cup winner.

Laurie

I guess you have seen this ?

https://www.racingpost.com/news/insight/better-than-frankel-reinforcements-in-the-brigadiers-battle-for-supremacy/568171

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
Report brigust1 July 17, 2022 1:02 PM BST
Hi Andrew. I spotted it by chance about an hour ago and there has not been a dry eye since. No-one better to write it and it makes my proud. Take care and keep up the good work.
Report Brian July 17, 2022 1:48 PM BST
Until Frankel, I always said Brigadier Gerard was the top racehorse of my life then  I give the nod to Frankel. But who knows and really the main thing is that they were two great racehorses. Well done in getting the book out Brigust, certainly sounds like a work of passion.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 20, 2022 1:20 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

Alan

Good luck with Love Dreams at Sandown this evening, back to 8f and Marco on board a bonus (fingers crossed).

Also good luck to connections of Sense Of Security in the preceding race; one of the owners is known to several of us on here (the guys i go racing with)
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 20, 2022 1:21 PM BST
Laurie

Thanks.

Hope your BG book is selling well and makes the Booker prize in 2023 Wink
Report brigust1 July 20, 2022 2:12 PM BST
Hi Andrew. I am off to Ascot on Friday for a glorious two days. Sadly the Booker Prize for non fiction no longer exists, the Pulitzer Prize is for American authors and the Baillie Gifford award is ineligible for self-publishers. Nothing comes to mind at the moment, even if I had the time.
Report TheAnorak July 20, 2022 2:33 PM BST
Laurie,

How about:

https://news.williamhill.com/sport/sports-book-of-the-year/

Still open for 2022 entries.

Andrew,

Thanks, as you say back to a mile after the failed experiment last time. Slight question mark over how he'll handle the ground, but he's moving better now than he has done in previous seasons for me. Favourite seems pretty short for winning a four runner maiden handicap in which the other three went off too fast and looked far from keen when challenged. Up 7lbs for that, with a jockey that has never ridden round Sandown and a trainer with a 0-18 career record at the course - would you take 2/1?
Report Trusty July 20, 2022 3:01 PM BST
Age not with you in your race The Anorak 4yr+ 2/55 = 3.6%; 3yr old have a 32% S/R - so if Clover also yet to have a winner at Sandown then the stats selection becomes Notions. GL
Report brigust1 July 20, 2022 4:24 PM BST
Thank you TheAnorak. I will certainly enter and if I win anything I will personally buy you a big drink. I think you were at Salisbury races earlier this season and hoped you called in to say 'Hi'. Perhaps it was someone else.
Report PHS July 23, 2022 10:11 AM BST
ttt
Report Trusty July 23, 2022 10:26 AM BST
AIS probably enjoying the sunshine as we should be! Meanwhile I will be laying Dark Shot at 6.0 in the International, no real pacesetter and better suited at 1m than 7f. Trainer also out of form at the moment.

I will also be laying Westover at 2.8, horses get over backed when they win by wide distances LTO and this race has Gosden's name all over it.

GL.
Report PHS July 23, 2022 10:56 AM BST

Jul 23, 2022 -- 10:26AM, Trusty wrote:


AIS probably enjoying the sunshine as we should be! Meanwhile I will be laying Dark Shot at 6.0 in the International, no real pacesetter and better suited at 1m than 7f. Trainer also out of form at the moment.I will also be laying Westover at 2.8, horses get over backed when they win by wide distances LTO and this race has Gosden's name all over it.GL.


Dark Shift maybe?

Report Trusty July 23, 2022 11:31 AM BST
Yes sorry Dark Shift, Dark Shot would be 500/1 to win this with a furlong start!
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 23, 2022 12:38 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

Thanks for the posts.

Short one today as currently in Sweden meeting up with friends for lunch soon.

On Thursday was it 37c here, yesterday 26c and today 17c. Crazy.  Laugh

Trusty i don't think the KG is cut and dried, not sure the favourite is a lay, but good luck. I wouldn't be a backer or layer of the filly the race is an afterthought, but i wouldn't rule out the German Arc winner.  What's to say he can't act on the going, but if he does, his turn of foot could win it. There should be a decent  pace and it may set it up for a closer although I can't see Mishrif winning. I may play the German horse 3TBP, but if i had to pick a winner, it would be the fav.

At York (3.15) i think Dubai Future can beat the fav (going may be an issue for this one). Never won a group race but he was impressive at RA. The 3 year old could be decent, but I feel today is the day for DF.

More tomorrow.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all
Report PHS July 23, 2022 1:12 PM BST
At York (3.15) i think Dubai Future can beat the fav (going may be an issue for this one). Never won a group race but he was impressive at RA. The 3 year old could be decent, but I feel today is the day for DF.

Andrew,
I disagree. I don't think DF beat much at Ascot and had good track position. DH was a close up 4th on Firm ground in the Britannia last year and won on Good to Firm at Newm. His 2nd in last year's Champion Stakes puts him on a different level to some of these IMO.
Report PHS July 23, 2022 1:13 PM BST
^DH was a close up 4th on Firm ground in the Britannia last year when drawn on the wrong side
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 25, 2022 11:51 AM BST
Good warm afternoon Guys,

Will be 36c later.

Back in München (last night) after a 3 day weekend back home in the best city in Sweden (slightly biased opinion Wink).

Nice weather up there (much cooler than recently) and more social than anything else so i didn’t see any racing at all, just several VR’s and very few bets (Saturday a win on Westover and 3TBP on the German runner-up as i intimated, but only small stakes). 

The KG was an odd race, certainly the pace, slow for the first furlong and then for whatever reason, far too quick for the next 3 and the Westover/Broome duel up front later surely ruined both their respective chances and possibly a couple of others as well. Mishriff probably lost it at the start, and the only two that came out of the race with credit was the winner Pyledriver and runner-up Torquator Tasso who i thought ran well. The form could be questionable and maybe the same could be said of the GB/Irish 3 year old colts and fillies this year Of those that ran, i would only be interested in backing the latter for the Arc, especially on the envisaged softer ground. I was hoping connections would go for the Longchamp trials in September, but it appears the G1 Grosser Preis von Baden (Group 1) is his next run (won the race last year).

Speaking of the Arc, fillies and mares have a decent record recently so could Sir Mark Prescott’s Alpinista win it ? She beat Torquator Tasso by almost 3L last year and although only rated 118 could still be improving (won her previous 6 runs). Ground and trip will not be an issue and she has a turn of foot. I saw her win in München (November) and although there is a meeting here this Sunday she will not be there, i guess Longchamp trials day is favoured.

First day of the Galway festival this evening and it appears the card contains a good thing of the day in the opener, HMS Seahorse. Won easily on the flat recently and the handicapper was impressed raising him to 101. Contested decent hurdle races won by the likes of Vauban, Brazil and Pied Piper and rated 132. Concedes a stone to his main rival and is surely better then these (also entered for the big race on Thursday). I think he’s a good thing, but not for everyone at 1.64 (8/15 with 365) and i expect him to win (backed already).

Sadly i’ve just seen Coroebus is a NR in the Sussex. Sad

Trusty

WD with the lay of Westover and Dark Shift even if the latter did make you sweat a bit. I wouldn’t have laid the KG fav even though he was shorter than i expected, a good call.

PHS

WD with the Dubai Future comment, more accurate than mine, although i thought there were question marks over a few of the field including the fav (2nd). I didn’t back it, but did put it up as my nap in the daily comp.

Laurie

Hope you had a fantastic time at Ascot and the PR team looked after you. As mentioned before, the day was part of my initial plans, even staying over until Wednesday for the Sussex, but i decided on Sweden instead. Not sure how i would have got on if i had come over (maybe backed Lezoo) but i suspect it wouldn’t have been a winning day.

I’ve got my Panoramic stand ticket for the Longchamp Arc trials on September 11th (only 20 euros with seating) but i expect to be in UK before (at least once) so hopefully we can meet up.

Good luck with WH book of the year.

Alan

Thanks for the Love Dreams feedback
Report Trusty July 26, 2022 7:45 AM BST
Four 2/1 favs to potentially lay this afternoon but which one:-

2.25 Holloway Boy - personally I don't like 2yr old races so I am not going to lay or back this one.
3.00 Sacred - struggling to find a chink in this one's chances, if anything back.
3.35 Kyprios - going to lay this one. Will get a decent reduction if Trueshan doesn't run bringing price to 6/4 and I prefer Strad today
               over 2 miles.
5.20 Crystal Caprice - obvious chance first time in handicap but not a gimme off 87 but a pass for me.

GL today
Report Trusty July 26, 2022 6:13 PM BST
Didn't pick the right one but a fantastic race won by Kyprios, thought he looked beat twice and not sure if Strad was really unlucky or not. After 3 double digit winners you knew a favourite was due.

Not quite the same options for tomorrow and AIS's love affair with Baaeed will continue.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 27, 2022 10:03 AM BST
Good morning Guys,

Too busy with a GB company visit meeting yesterday, i didn’t see any racing (VR’s late on) or back anything except for a 1-1 correct score fun bet in England v Sweden game (i was close Wink) and Baaeed for this afternoon.

Trusty

Thanks for the posts.

I thought the GC was a good race (fastest time of the meeting by standard) a pity there had to be a loser although i guess many of us would agree Trueshan would win on softer going, Longchamp and Ascot await.

As for my ‘supposed’ love affair with Baaeed (Wink) yes i backed him last night at 1/6, but not to the £ extent at RA and with Coroebus a NR the 4/11 ‘value’ has disappeared. I can’t see any negatives this afternoon, but i don’t expect anything like a Frankel display in the same race (twice) and we saw a similar priced unbeaten runner turned over recently. No doubt the media hype will go into overdrive if he wins and makes it 9/9, but i honestly feel Frankel would be away and gone in a match race (all hypothetical of course).

I will also be backing the speedily-bred Walbank in the Molecomb stakes (currently around 4 on here) this course will suit him and he will get a decent lead from Eddie’s Boy. I think he’s good although a little disappointing at RA in a messy race (he wasn’t unlucky). Beaten on debut by Native Style who i fancied for the Coventry (NR) and i noticed this one has an entry in a novice stakes at Newmarket on Friday, but i doubt he will run there, he’s decent. I thought the favourite was a bit short in this field.

Good luck and have a nice Wednesday all.

Maybe more later.
Report Trusty July 27, 2022 12:11 PM BST
Afternoon all

Struggled today as not so many shorties to try and lay but have settled on two:-

1.50 Secret State - unfortunately already 4.2 on here and although a winner at RA and the misleading Man On The Spot comment, I am not sure. Trainer is 0/5 in this race and revised mark looks just a tad too tough in a more open race than the betting suggests. Laid at 4.2 but likely to travel well, so will lay at 3.0 I/R as well.

3.00 On the back of AIS's comment below, looked further at the race and thought Rocket Rodney could be laid at 2.10 with a ny number of dangers including AIS's selection.

GL
Report ashleigh July 27, 2022 12:41 PM BST
Andrew, Noble Style is running at Newmarket on Friday with D Probert riding, C Appleby must think he needs more experience before a rise in grade.
Report Trusty July 27, 2022 3:33 PM BST
Zero day for me; 1 winner and 1 loser Sad

Thought Walbank was again in the wrong place, following the pace in the middle behind rags,thinks about switching and goes back in, then switches behind Eddies Boy in the middle before immediately realising that he is going to have run at it himself as all the pace is over on the rail.
Report happysandwich July 27, 2022 3:51 PM BST
Andrew,

Well done – every little helps.
As I said to the bookmaker at Ascot when I backed Baaeed @ 1/6.

“You give me the winner and I’ll make my own price”.

Left it alone today but cheered it home.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 27, 2022 4:41 PM BST
Happysandwich

Thanks. I didn't back him with as much as when we are at RA, but a good few £. Haven't seen the race/VR yet and although he only won by < 2L it appears it was cosy enough and he rarely wins by Frankel distances anyway. York will be interesting and obviously better competition than in recent races, but let's see the field. Vadeni may come over from France, but i sense the race will cut-up.

Irrespective of all the hype (and he is very decent) in my opinion he wouldn't get within 4-5L of Frankel over 8f.

Ashleigh

Thanks. I did see the Newmarket/Friday entry (also the group ones later) but wondered if he would take it up, i was impressed with him on debut.

Trusty

Often the way it goes. I haven't had chance to see any TV racing today, so can't comment on Walbank. We both agreed on Rocket Rodney who i felt was too short at evens.
Report CagliariG July 27, 2022 11:00 PM BST
Same pair one con man...............NAP!!*****
Report CagliariG July 27, 2022 11:42 PM BST
5 yo Bay Mare,Sire-No Nay Never....Damn..Meeting In Paris!!!LaughCrazyWink
Report Trusty July 28, 2022 11:05 AM BST
Just going to lay Royal Scotsman today at 2.54; see that Nashwa has had a decent drift and they are backing One For Bobby but decided to leave race alone. GL.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 28, 2022 12:27 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

Now the Baaeed post-race dust has settled, it appears the Juddmonte in (August 17th) is almost certainly his next race, then the Ascot Champion or QEII, but very unlikely to take in the Arc (no surprise there really). Thereafter retirement with a potential 11/11 record and subsequent life of luxury as a stallion (nice work if you can get it Wink).

The comparison with Frankel will obviously be mentioned in forthcoming years, distracting from a few in a bygone era that were even better than Baaeed; irrespective of this he has to go down as one of the best milers in recent years on a par with Kingman. What sets him apart from most is his ability to quicken with a turn of foot, a trait only shown by the crème de la crème and when such types win with an explosive burst, it’s difficult to know just how good they are (the filly Zarkarva was another example). This is my opinion anyway.

Of course a 31% step-up in trip is an unknown although i very much doubt this is an issue, but maybe a couple of 3 year olds could be, the racing world awaits eagerly.

Moving on to Goodwood this afternoon, although the favourite Royal Scotsman will be difficult to beat in the Richmond stakes (2.25) i was impressed with the Andrew Balding trained Chateau LTO who improved for the step up to 6f at Newbury LTO. Admittedly only a listed race, but another one who quickened up really well and he’s not that far off the favourite via BHA and RPR figures. I visualise the pair having a ding-dong duel in the final furlong with Chateau gaining the advantage close home, that’s the theory anyway, although he is hampered by being my daily nap selection. Laugh

I didn’t really fancy anything else on the card, but one i thought was a lay is Pencreek at Stratford (1.57). A winner LTO, but the race fell apart in a field of 7 with couple of PU and another 3 basically tailed off, so it turned into a match that he won by a neck. Has a tendency to jump right and is raised 4 lb. Stratford is a sharp left handed track although he has won at Bangor to be fair. An open race in my opinion and 7/4 is short enough.

As for the CagliariG/Glentoby posts, just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water. Laugh

There are several posters on here that have met HS/me on course. No worries, the guy needs help.

Good luck and have a nice Thursday all.

Trusty

Good luck with the lay, we may have shared a similar opinion here, although mine was more aligned with backing Chateau than laying the favourite.
Report Mr_Spreadsheet July 28, 2022 12:56 PM BST
I've met Andrew and HS in person on more than one occassion. Good luck today Andrew - except for RS as I have this to win! Laugh
Report Brian July 28, 2022 1:22 PM BST
Hardly earth shattering but I think it will take a very good one to beat Royal Scotsman today.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 28, 2022 1:56 PM BST
Mr Spreadsheet/Brian

Thanks

MS, he is the form horse, rightful favourite and as Brian mentioned it will take a good one to beat him, but i'm hoping Chateau is good enough.

Good luck (not too much Wink)
Report Platini July 28, 2022 2:02 PM BST
Both Slybet and Paddies offering money back if your horse is beaten but placed in the 2.25

Decent value if you fancy one of the top 2 in the betting.
Report Rico-Dangleflaps July 28, 2022 2:03 PM BST
pencreek 20L on the snaff andrew....make up look fools at times..
Report sadlers July 28, 2022 2:06 PM BST
Do you have a much better success rate with flat races rather than jumps?
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 28, 2022 2:20 PM BST
Platini

Many thanks, but no GB high St accounts (now allowed here) in fact i haven't had one since 1984. Only a small bet (40 win) but the offer would have been handy.

Steve

Obviously a better chaser than a hurdler, and although a risky bet based on the opposition it thought it was a lay based on my reasoning (and i did). As you say, it's easy to look stupid in this game sometimes. C'est la vie

Sadlers

My success rate is questionable at the amount except for a few shorties, but in general i prefer the flat. Any significant sums are only in group races (both codes) and i would never have a decent bet on the AW or a class 5 at Bath for example.  Mind you i did OK with Vauban and Constitution Hill in recent months.
Report sadlers July 28, 2022 3:40 PM BST
Just a casual look at it with no numbers to back it up on  my part .Do enjoy reading your posts and wish you continued success, as  you rightly say it can make you look very silly at times.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 28, 2022 3:52 PM BST
Sadlers,

Thank you.

Today is a typical example when i should have concentrated on aerospace and ignored the horse racing Sad

I enjoy posting muses and lays here (since April 2018) specially the weekend when i have far more free time. Of course i don't get it right all the time, but at least it's honest appraisal without any BS. The only connection i have with a stable is i once shook hands with John Gosden and Teddy Grimthorpe (Chantilly when Enable won) Laugh
Report Trusty July 29, 2022 9:10 AM BST
Once more into battle today and going to have to lay Rebel's Romance at 1.8 on here. Field is much closer than betting suggests and Regal Reality stands out in a race that Stoute has won 3 times from 5 runners.

Withhold in the 1.50 has to be a solid e/w having come second last year and being 2lb lower this despite 9yrs of age.

GL
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 29, 2022 12:28 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

Another weekend approaching and plenty of sports action to keep most of us entertained. Goodwood and Galway festivals, England v Germany, Hull v Bristol City (someone has to support them Wink) the Commonwealth games and even the World Chess Olympiad (no markets up yet for those that bet on anything).

Mind you, although there are plenty of meetings during the next 3 days i wasn’t overly enamoured with any of them. I may go to the München course on Sunday afternoon, there’s a G1 race on the card, albeit no GB/Irish interest. I went last November (Alpinista was running) although it’s not high on the list of decent horse racing venues, but a fun afternoon nevertheless.

Apart from the obvious shorties, i can’t tip anything out of a wheel-barrow at the moment, but hopefully it’s only a blip. Regular readers know i was all over Noble Style (ante-post) for the Coventry (Ashleigh did at least) and he was one of 3 runners i had planned to back at RA on the opening Tuesday, Baaeed and Coroebus being the other 2 (i didn’t back the latter in the end). I was impressed with his debut run at Ascot (5f) in the fastest time of the meeting (by standard) and the form has been franked with the 2nd, 3rd and 4th all winning since (Royal Scotsman beaten 5.5L won the G2 yesterday). Not been seen since early May and the setback has to be a minor concern, added to this the fact Charlie has chosen a novice stakes when he’s clearly far better, but he’s one of the few trainers i really have a lot of faith in and he doesn’t get it wrong often. Of course at 2/5 is not a tip, but i’m interested to see how he runs with the future in mind (a stablemate Naval Power may even be better).

The only bet i’ve had so far is a small win/place on Eileen Dubh in the Goodwood mile (3.00). Progressive, won 3 from previous 4, a decent mark and a low draw are all positives and at double figure odds is a tentative EW selection, but it’s a minefield, you could pick 12 and not get the winner.

I’m contemplating laying Nicky Henderson’s Lelantos at Bangor (2.00) it’s probably his lowest rated horse although it has won a couple. Not the most fluent of hurdlers and he didn’t find much on the run-in (receiving a fair bit of weight) LTO (debut 2022 run to be fair). A risky lay, but 7/4 is short enough. I thought the Milton Harris trained Mr **** was a more likely winner (conditional jockey has a good strike rate) but i wouldn’t back anything in the field to be honest.

Trusty

Thanks for the post and good luck with your lay and back bets.

Good luck and have a nice Friday all.
Report ashleigh July 29, 2022 5:46 PM BST
Andrew, Noble Style would say was just workmanlike, very keen and drawn away from the dangers,  backed at 1.7, was concerned by the drift, would expect plenty of improvement to come.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 30, 2022 10:30 AM BST
Good sunny morning Guys,

Several race meetings today in GB and Ireland (7 actually) all on the flat and no supporting acts from across the channel, but as mentioned yesterday not exactly enthralling and 37 handicaps; surprisingly Galway the lowest with 4. For those that are interested there is a decent graded card at Greyville although i wouldn’t have a clue, nor am i interested.

Goodwood looks as tricky as it often does and anyone who lumps on the Stewards Cup winner is a better man than me, but there could be a bet in the consolation race (1.40) with Lethal Levi, a typical Karl Burke improving sprinter (one i’ve mentioned before). It appears losing his wedding tackle last year has been the making of him with 4 wins in 8 runs since, including the last couple where it’s been a case of point and shoot. On a mark of 92, but he’s 9 lb well in (raised 8 lb to 100) albeit has to carry a 6 lb penalty, but even half of this is offset by the capable apprentice. Drawn in 3 it looks a case of catch me if you can on a course that should suit.

The form combination of Haggas/Marquand can’t do much wrong at the moment, but i feel their likely favourite Sea La Rosa in the G2 Lillie Langtry was a lay at the current 2/1. Ran well enough to be runner-up in the Lancashire Oaks LTO, but it was a messy race and she may have been fortunate. Top rated, but she doesn’t have much in hand of the field and Viola (who is probably sick of seeing her derriere finishing 2nd on 3 occasions) could get revenge over this longer trip. She’s genuine enough, but doesn’t find much where it matters. I may put this up later as a PL lay selection.

The Stewards Cup (3.20) is the minefield it generally is, but my EW lucky pin has randomly fallen on the course winner Whenthedealinsdone. Lightly raced, only a couple of runs since September and may have been ‘saved’ for the race. Ran well enough in the Betfair Heritage handicap LTO and prior to that was just over 6L behind Khaadem in the G3 Palace House stakes (this one franked the form winning the G2 yesterday).

Over at Newmarket, it appears to be a William Buick benefit day, 7 rides (oddly enough only one for Charlie in the opener) and decent chances in all of them, he could have 3 winners at least. Is there a better in-form jockey around, currently with an incredible 35% strike rate in the last 14 days.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.

Ashleigh

WD on the Noble Style bet. I was in two minds whether to back it, the drift and setback being the negatives (even though i thought it would win) but in the end i swerved it. After his Ascot debut win i was impressed and thought he was amongst the best 2 year olds seen to date, the reasoning my wanting to back him for the Coventry at RA. Only workmanlike yesterday, but was cruising for over 3f and although taking a bit of time to stride out, he stayed on well to win. Probably needed the run, hence entry in a novice stakes and i agree there is improvement to come. He’s better than this form and i think we will see him in a better light in the Gimcrack later this month. He's the one i want to back in the race. Look out for his stablemate Naval Power who could be very good.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 30, 2022 11:03 AM BST
On a mark of 91
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 31, 2022 10:26 AM BST
Good morning Guys,

Well yesterdays post was a wasted 30 minutes in my life, 3 selections and all ran to the opposite of what i initially envisaged, but at least i didn't see them run on TV that would have made it worse (only VR's). To be fair, the first one Lethal Levi lost it at the start, slowly away and spent energy playing catch-up that was never likely to happen and backers knew their fate after a furlong. The Lillie Langtry stakes was subject to a suicidal pace (although it nearly paid off for the runner-up to be fair) and although Sea La Rosa won i feel the form line could be iffy. My tentative EW selection Whenthedealisdone (16/1) finished just out of the places in 21st Laugh but according to the RP bled from the nose.

I'm off to the local München track later, albeit only to watch a few races and have a beer or 2. I'm not so familiar with the German horse racing scene (i did go to the same course for Apinista last year) but there is a G1, the Grosser Dallmayr-Preis. Christophe Soumillon rides the likely favourite and globe trotting mare Ebaiyra who was beaten in the Dahlia stakes at Newmarket a couple of months ago. She's lightly raced for a 5 year old and has a touch of class so hopefully she can win her first G1 although any bet will be small.

There's also a couple of listed races at Clairefontaine with GB trainer interest, but i doubt they return with a winner.

My current form makes the poster Gaze look good and i'm not really interested in anything running in GB, but i will leave a small win bet on Politesse (Galway 3.05) who i feel can beat the favourite. Only 4 runs over fences, but a 50% strike rate and although not well in on ratings i think she's another mare who could be winning this afternoon.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
Report ashleigh July 31, 2022 10:37 AM BST
Andrew, surprised no uk/irish runner in the Munich group 1, looks a poor field for the grade, maybe it's a prizemoney issue, £84k for the winner poor for a group 1.
have a good day.
Report Manoleeds July 31, 2022 12:07 PM BST
"My current form makes the poster Gaze look good ". That's got to be the comment of the month Laugh
Report PHS July 31, 2022 3:22 PM BST
My current form makes the poster Gaze look good and i'm not really interested in anything running in GB, but i will leave a small win bet on Politesse (Galway 3.05) who i feel can beat the favourite. Only 4 runs over fences, but a 50% strike rate and although not well in on ratings i think she's another mare who could be winning this afternoon.


WD AndrewHappy
Report happysandwich July 31, 2022 7:48 PM BST
Spare a thought for poor Andrew when he has to face those angry German girls in his office Monday morning.
Laugh
Report Andrew.in.Sweden August 1, 2022 8:14 AM BST
Good morning Guys,

A nice afternoon at München racecourse yesterday although i was only there for 3 races, in particular the G1. The meeting actually started at 10.50 (i wasn’t aware beforehand) but i never had plans to go that early anyway and stakes of 10, 50 and 10 euros support how serious i took it, but the latter bet gave me a small return of 31 euros. Christophe Soumillon’s trip across the border never really looked like being fruitful even though only beaten just over a length, the winner (also won the German Derby) was clearly best in the race (receiving 6 lb) and won it easier than the 0.75 distance shown on the form line.

I didn’t hear a single English voice although a couple of Germans i conversed with spoke it well enough; last time I was there i had a chat with the female horsebox driver who brought Alpinista over.

To complement my afternoon, Politesse won at 9/4 (Galway) beating the short priced 11/10 favourite Batteloverdoyen, the only horseracing bet i had away from the course.

Good luck and have a nice Monday all.

Ashleigh

Thanks. I agree it didn’t look a particularly strong G1 pre-race and GB based trainers had won 3 of the previous 4 runnings including the Charlie Appleby Barney Roy (oldies will remember Shady Heights who also won it). I think the winner could be decent.

München (Riem) isn’t on a par with Ascot or Newbury, far from it in fact, but a compact course, probably more akin to Windsor back in time. There was a decent crowd there, much larger than in November, but we were still under Covid restrictions then. Only 2 group races per year, the biggest one being the Grosser Preis von Bayern that Sir Mark has won twice, as did Clive Brittain with the same horse Luso. One fact i didn’t know until yesterday is the prize money in Germany is taxed.   

Manoleeds

If Politese had got beaten yesterday i would have contemplated subscribing to his tipping service. Laugh

PHS

Thanks, about time i had one.

Happysandwich

It’s got to be a diplomatic day in the office, so i may say “I wasn’t aware of the game, was it important” ? Laugh

I actually watched the game in Kennedys Irish bar (centre of München) surrounded by a zillion beer drinking Germans, but i left there with all my nose intact
Report snowynoon August 1, 2022 10:38 AM BST
re Hull v your team ,Bristol city ,ive never known a team concede so often in the last minutes of a game as Bristol city the last season or so ,and theyve gone and started this one the same ,must be very frustrating supporting them .
Report Andrew.in.Sweden August 1, 2022 10:46 AM BST
Snowynoon

Correct and it's been like this for several seasons, i very rarely lay them, but it's probably something to look at if they are leading.

Frustrating is an understatement and it looks like another season in the bottom half of the table, albeit fstill early days of course. Reading the fan-zone comments, we played well, but a very dubious penalty and a deflection of a defender cost us. Personally i'm not a fan of Nigel Pearson, but unless he's sacked he's with the team for 3 years
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! August 1, 2022 1:18 PM BST
Obviously your leatherhosen was a good alias
Laugh
Report happysandwich August 2, 2022 9:07 AM BST
Grandad where was you when England beat Germany 2 – 1 ?

I was busy doing Uncle Boris’ 21 system.

Did I miss a trick there?
LaughLaugh
Report Andrew.in.Sweden August 2, 2022 11:39 AM BST
Lay Post

Deauville 1.18 - The Antarctic

A 2 year old Dark Angel colt trained by Aiden O’Brien in County Tipperary.

Dam was a 4 race maiden and a poor one at that, but considering the selection is a full-brother to Battaash she’s performed far better in the breeding sheds than on the track.

Won his first couple of races (short price favourite on each occasion) before being raised in class for the Norfolk stakes at RA (4/1) where he finished 7th of 10 (beaten almost 5L after swerving at the start). The winner hasn’t run since (may be decent) but the 2nd, 3rd 4th and 8th (just behind him) have all been beaten. Odds-on favourite (10/11) for next run is a listed race at Tipperary where he was beaten into 3rd by Wodeo (now rated 96) who he had beaten twice before.  All these runs were at 5f.

Upped in trip to 6f for the G2 Robert Papin at Chantilly finishing runner-up (3L) to his decent stablemate Blackbeard with one of this afternoons rivals Belbek behind. A good run although he will not have the same ground this afternoon.

It's a quality field as you would expect for a prestige race with an unbeaten French colt and a couple of decent fillies (receiving 4 lb) just a few of the dangers. I feel that 6f on soft is a far as he probably wants at present and will be a better 3 year old, just as his full-brother turned out to be.

A rating of 106 obviously gives him a shout, but odds of 6/4 look short enough even allowing for connections (and his illustrious full-brother) considering he hasn’t won a Black type race yet, hence the lay selection.

Lay @ 2.50

Liquidity is dire and not all matched yet, but i’ve used the higher odds.

Good luck all.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden August 2, 2022 11:44 AM BST
ISLL

I like Germany and i love Sweden, but there are 2 things i will never follow local customs with; wearing lederhosen (here) and socks with sandals (Sweden). Wink

I don't wear the latter anyway.

Happysandwich

Laying 2-1 would have been higher than your your odds limit, but i know your comment was tongue in cheek. I suvived the aftermath by the way. Laugh
Report FOYLESWAR August 2, 2022 1:11 PM BST
good luck andrew , socks with sandals ,how about wimmin in a nice summer dress with dr martin boots Cry
Report Andrew.in.Sweden August 2, 2022 1:40 PM BST
Foyleswar

Swedish girls hardly wear anything in summertime Wink

On a sadder note, the lay selection won (6/5f) my worse run since i started the lay threads in April 2018. Sad
Report hologon August 2, 2022 1:46 PM BST
Andrew form is temporary  class is permanent.
Every confidence in you.
Report Mr_Spreadsheet August 2, 2022 2:00 PM BST
The form will return!
Report Brian August 2, 2022 3:11 PM BST
Good analysis Andrew, bad result. It happens just like poor runs!
Report Lucky Luciano August 2, 2022 10:49 PM BST
Hi Andrew,
Don’t get too despondent about your recent run, it happens to all of us.
Putting up selections before a race is always going to be a brave move, as many who follow this thread will agree.
The effort/study you put in and writes ups are I’m sure appreciated and encourage debate with a few other posters on this thread.
All the best for a return to form
Report Mr_Spreadsheet August 3, 2022 7:01 AM BST
Well said Lucky!
Report happysandwich August 4, 2022 3:20 PM BST
Andrew,

Stick up Yarmouth 3:40 Gilbert to get your Lays back on track.

Quick, while no ones looking. Laugh
Report happysandwich August 4, 2022 3:23 PM BST
^
As you all know I don't do write ups.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden August 7, 2022 8:46 AM BST
Good morning Guys,

Many thanks for the kind comments, much appreciated. Happy

We all go through poor runs occasionally, it's an expected part and parcel of the game, so you either take a short break, reduce betting activity or try to blank it out of your mind and hope for a turnaround.

The last week was a combination of the latter couple of actions for me, but nevertheless a small loss compounded by Sunderland winning yesterday (a heart ruling the head lay) but Life Is Good winning in Saratoga last night helped the kitty a bit although it appears i took under the odds looking at the 10/11 SP. Maybe this was the catalyst i needed to change my luck as i didn't even know it was running until reading a few threads late in the evening.

My previous Lay Post (selections that count on the P/L) was The Antarctic (6/5f) who won comfortably last Tuesday but i was content with the reasoning pre-race. Thinking about it later, maybe my selections have been 'too classy' over the past year or so (although my opening post on the initial lay thread in April 2018 was the same trainers' Washington DC) so i think i will concentrate on lower class runners in future, at least generally (i don't have an issue taking on short priced runners though). I also need to get back posting them regularly, but this is constrained by time (and early liquidity).

Average Sunday afternoon meetings in GB/Ireland, but there is a decent group race card at Deauville where surprisingly AOB doesn't have a runner, instead a rare one in Germany with the likely favourite, Toy in the Oaks (richest race this afternoon).

The G1 Maurice De Geest at Deauville (2.55) has often been won by a GB/Irish trainer and/or jockey and this afternoons' field has the same sort of look about it (there's even an Aussie runner). Naval Crown will no doubt be favourite, but the admirable 5 year old mare Highfield Princess is my choice, she rarely runs a poor race and was only 1.5L behind Navel Crown at Ascot over 6f. A total of 9 wins on her CV, 8 of them over 7f, so the 1/2 furlong longer trip (and softer going) is in her favour. Mind you it's a quality field, so i will play the win/place (currently 11 for the win).

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

Alan

Good luck with Love Dreams later, i noticed him running in the 5 day declarations, 17 then, but only 6 this afternoon. I think he's in with a shout and was surprised at the tissue price of 8/1. He runs well at the track, back on his previous winning mark of 73, RPR range of only 5 lbs in the field (i thought the fav was short enough) and on a going day could make it a nice afternoon for you.

Happysandwich

WD with the lay bet, i could have done with that one.
Report TheAnorak August 7, 2022 10:57 AM BST
Morning Andrew,

It was the small field that persuaded us to declare Love Dreams for today. It's unlikely we'd be able to find a better opportunity or better ground anywhere else for the next couple of weeks. I confess the price of the favourite, Savrola, mystifies me - he won a four runner race by a nose in a slow time, the runner-up finished last of three at Nmkt a week ago and Kevin Ryan was so unimpressed by the third that he sent him to Doncaster Sales this week, where he changed hands for £16k. I suspect that as at Sandown last time, the ground will be a bit too quick for LD, but I'll be happy enough if he picks up some place money and delighted if he wins. No Marco today as he's serving a one day suspension.
Report tanglefoot August 7, 2022 12:42 PM BST
Savrola appears to be improving,and win came first time handicap,Callan keeps the ride
Report PHS August 7, 2022 3:00 PM BST
The G1 Maurice De Geest at Deauville (2.55) has often been won by a GB/Irish trainer and/or jockey and this afternoons' field has the same sort of look about it (there's even an Aussie runner). Naval Crown will no doubt be favourite, but the admirable 5 year old mare Highfield Princess is my choice, she rarely runs a poor race and was only 1.5L behind Navel Crown at Ascot over 6f. A total of 9 wins on her CV, 8 of them over 7f, so the 1/2 furlong longer trip (and softer going) is in her favour. Mind you it's a quality field, so i will play the win/place (currently 11 for the win).

VWD AndrewCool

I didn't follow youSad
Report GLASGOWCALLING August 7, 2022 3:03 PM BST
Good call Andrew. Happy
Report ashleigh August 7, 2022 3:04 PM BST
well done Andrew.Cool
Report second again August 7, 2022 3:05 PM BST
That has changed your luck Andrew,she won easily,I normally like a price but was tempted by the favourite who was beaten early.Enjoy.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden August 7, 2022 3:09 PM BST
Thanks Guys, only a small W/P bet, but 15.0 and 3.9. Only horse bet i've done.

I can't believe how easy she won. Love
Report england_v_south_afri August 7, 2022 3:10 PM BST
Great call Andrew !! Back with a bang. Happy
Report Andrew.in.Sweden August 7, 2022 3:31 PM BST
Thanks England v SA

Hoping my luck will rub off on Alans' horse, had a small W/2TBP
Report TheAnorak August 8, 2022 9:35 AM BST
" had a small W/2TBP "

I guess he was always going to finish third then! Jockey reported that he felt the ground was a bit too quick for him and I've just heard that he's a bit sore this morning. So he probably won't run again until we've had some rain, proper rain that is, not just a few showers.
Report stridingedge August 8, 2022 9:46 AM BST
Nice one Andrew.Cool
Report Andrew.in.Sweden August 8, 2022 11:48 AM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

Alan

Laugh You did mention pre-race you thought the ground would be too quick for him, but my bet was small, more of an added interest to watch the race.

Just out of curiosity, how do you know a horse is sore (an often used term) is it the way they walk or can a vet/trainer actually feel some sort of inflammation in the legs ?

Stridingedge

Thanks. I noticed the PMU paid 16.3 (industy SP 10/1) but i was happy enough. She's a speedy mare and did well to win from stall 4, but i can't see her going to York for the Nunthorpe.
Report TheAnorak August 8, 2022 12:23 PM BST
Andrew,

Basically it's from watching how the horse moves, knowing how it would look when normal and spotting the difference. Things like a shorter stride, or a reluctance to put too much weight on one foot. The trainers wife is an expert dressage rider and she can see things just from watching a horse walk up and down in their exercise yard (or at the sales) that I would never be able to spot. Heat or inflammation in a leg would usually be a sign of something more serious, the sort of bad news that every owner/ trainer dreads.

For Love Dreams, it'll be a few days on bute, a visit from the physio and rest out in the paddock. The last two would be pretty much standard for him after any race.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden August 8, 2022 12:43 PM BST
Alan, many thanks for the response.

This thread has everything, i can add veterinary advice to the list now Laugh

Hope all is well with Love Dreams after treatment.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden August 12, 2022 1:53 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

A typical Friday as far as GB cards go, but Ireland provides a little quality at least with a G3 and listed class races. There is also a commorative race in honour of Pat Smullen, but i feel they could have chosen something more appropriate than a lowly handicap (most rated in the 60's) worth £5,500 to the winner. 

Trainer Ger Lyons could take both Black type races and although i'm not suggesting a double, i think he will win the listed race (6.00) with the lightly raced, 4 year old Mutasarref who has an overall 4/8 win record and improved 25 lb (admittedly from an initial low mark of 80) since joining him earlier this year, winning 3 from 5 and not being beaten far in a couple of decent premier handicaps. Won well at Naas (7f) LTO beating one of todays' rivals San Andreas 3.5L conceding 7lb (apprentice claim) but levels this evening. Ger has a good winning strike rate at Cork that suits those who race up with the pace (as he often does). A good draw in 7, trip and going not an issue, although giving away 8 lb to the 3 year old filly Cigamia and racing in higher (listed) class will not be easy, but i expect him to win (backed earlier) with my favourite Irish jockey Colin Keane on board. Odds of 2.52 are about right in my opinion.

Good luck and have a nice Friday all.
Report PHS August 12, 2022 6:31 PM BST
WD AndrewHappy
Report Andrew.in.Sweden August 13, 2022 7:22 AM BST
Morning PHS,

Thanks. It looked a match on paper although they don't always work out as such of course and i was surprised the pair flipped-flopped in the betting during the afternoon (winner was well backed on course). At the 2f pole he was cruising and although needing a bit of rousting to take the lead he quickened well, pulled away and won easily by 3L in the end. Take out the filly and it wasn't a particularly strong field, but i think he's improving and could win a small group race in time.

More later.
Report ashleigh August 13, 2022 7:36 AM BST
morning Andrew, i see Raclette has been supplemented for £40k into the Yorkshire Oaks, Mr Fabre must fancy his chances of beating Alpinista.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden August 13, 2022 8:40 AM BST
Morning Ashleigh.

Thanks for the update, i wasn't aware. Not sure about fancying his chances of beating Alpinista et all albeit not impossible of course. She's lightly raced, progressive winning 4/6 and we can put a line through her 3 year old debut run. A couple of points to consider, all runs with soft in the going (although breeding suggests summer ground wouldn't be an issue) and on right handed tracks. Has to improve even to be placed, but this is likely anyway. Interesting nevertheless.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden August 13, 2022 2:33 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

A 3 day weekend here and not playing much this afternoon (more a 'tourist' in Bavaria) but one i backed this morning is Snash in the Great Wilfred handicap at Ripon (2.50). Winner of 4/15 and all at today's trip of 6f including 2 from his previous 3 runs. Improved for cheek-pieces and worn again. Raised 3 lb on a mark of 90 (has won off 94) and the horse will think there isn't a jockey on board carrying only 8-7 as opposed to 9-6 and 9-13 recently. Probably not the ideal track for him, but if he can be prominent in mid-field i think he could pick the leaders off close home. Tim Easterby knows the time of day with sprinters and i think he's a win/3TBP @ 10.5/3.5.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden August 13, 2022 5:10 PM BST
Boom! You have won £176.96
Treble (x1)
W
Wolves v Fulham - Match Odds
Draw23/10
W
Brighton v Newcastle - Match Odds
Draw9/4
W
Wigan v Bristol City - Match Odds
Draw23/10
Stake:£5.00
Returns:£176.96

Happy Who got lucky with a fiver fun bet on Sportsbook
Report sludge August 13, 2022 5:20 PM BST
You should be doing the Pools with all those draws Andrew. Well done.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden August 13, 2022 5:32 PM BST
Sludge, thank you. I don't do the bet that often, it was simply a stroke of luck picking a couple of likely draws in the premiership and adding my own team (Bristol). Not all profit as i layed the Bristol draw @ 1.06 (they were still playing) and also 40 on Snash (6th after being slowly away). Sometimes you get more satisfaction out of a fun bet than winning the same backing a favourite to win the same amount. Happy

Good luck.
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