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Place Backing system
Place Backing system
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Doyle ^^
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Hibernate until September. Most variables are minimised - fewer first time out, going is consistent GF, beasts have relevant form.
Always money to be made in September in the place markets. |
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Running total into today was £467.19
2 out of 3 placed today +9.57 today Running total = £476.76 |
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jock pot for today
Lingfield Oisin Murphy ranked 8th hollie doyle ranked 7th Rav Havlin ranked 14th Carlisle Jason Hart Ranked 9th Paul Hanagan Ranked 10th Paddy Mathers Ranked 18th Nottingham David Allan Ranked 4th Tony Hamilton Ranked 25th Paul Mulrennan Ranked 34th Gowran Park Wayne Lordan Ranked 3rd Shane Crosse Ranked 5th W J Lee Ranked 11th Windsor James Doyle Ranked 1st Marco Ghiani Ranked 12th Jack Mitchell Ranked 23rd selections later on |
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Lingfield - Hollie Doyle - Madame Marmalade 2.10 - Ran well on turf debut here, change to all weather and drawn handy, I think the lingfield race last time was a nicer race then this.
Carlisle - Paul Hanagan - Riversway 13.20 - Yard in form, Connections know this type and what is needed. Gowran Park - W J Lee - Moss Tucker 15.30 - Stepping back up after sticking on well, the fact finding stops today with this one imo. Nottingham - D Allan - Impeller 18.20 - Stopped on the rail, sat and suffer, was cantering along at that point, dropped 2lbs into an easier race, big chance Windsor - J Doyle - Mr Tyrrell 20.00 - showed more latest, 74 rated, C&D winner, 3 places drawn nicely - expecting better tonight after comeback run. |
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Couple of winners there T3M
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Lingfield - The 3 jocks 5/15 placed - I avoided Hollie's 2 - Starting to think I cant get her rides right. -£18.75
Carlisle - the 3 Jocks 3/7 Placed - Paul Hanagan directed the newcomer to the winners enclosure - Picked right +44.53 Nottingham The Jocks 5/13 - Picked the wrong jock as David Allan got 1/5 placed as Impeller change of tactics meant finished one out the place returns. -£18.75 Gowran Park The jocks 3/7 - Picked the right horse ridden by W J Lee as 3rd obtained on a serious drifter, which meant the place return was better. +29.93 Windsor The Jocks 5/10 - James Doyle does the job as Mr Tyrrell lands the spoils all out from 4 in a line +43.64 Daily Total = £80.60 Running total +557.36 - Stakes back up |
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Jockpot for Tuesday
Royal Ascot James Doyle - Ranked 1st William Buick - Ranked 2nd Hollie Doyle - Ranked 3rd Brighton Sean Levey - Ranked 29th Jason Watson - Ranked 30th David Probert - Ranked 44th Thirsk David Allan - Ranked 13th David Nolan - Ranked 23rd Jack Mitchell - Ranked 28th Sligo Chris Hayes - Ranked 14th W J Lee - Ranked 25th Oisin Orr - Ranked 37th Beverley Mark Crehan - Ranked 9th JOe Fanning - Ranked 10th Paddy Mathers - Ranked 19th |
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William Buick (Royal Ascot) - Looks to have the best book of rides out of the 3 top ranked riders on Day one. The one that Catches the eye is in the St James Palace Stakes HIGHLAND AVENUE in which the boys in blue could've sent Masters of the Seas who goes for the Irish Derby for this, but they send in higjland Avenue who tasted defeat at Sandown in May giving an penalty away to his rival. Still sent of an warm order that day, they believe a lot in this dubawi offspring. Drawn 12 could be advantage for racing position by the time the 4,20 us completed
David Allan (Thirsk) - The handicap 12 days ago I believe hold the key here and David Allan rides again from that race this straight forward type who galloped through to the line. Drawn 5 this time, he could be drawn worse then previously, but he is 1lb better off with Dick Darstadly whom doesnt have Danny Tudhope this time, even though David Nolan is an able deputy, How STRONGBOWE is taken to reverse form with the two whom finished in front in the 1.40 Chris Hayes (Sligo) - The 4.45 was tempting, but something is just swaying me from the hot fav he rides in this race and has pointed me to CEASERS COMET in the 6.30 which goes well for the jockey and the return to handicap and sounder surface I think will bring about a change in fortune Sean Levey (Brighton) - Could gone with Jason Watson and his hotpot on a tricky card at Brighton, however Sean Levey rides the Nap for the meeting for racingpost in the lucky last, but the earlier runner for the boss catches my eye in 6.20 MAGIC WARRIOR. I'm prepared to overlook the chester run and stick with redemption in this easier looking race. Could have gone the nursey route, but takes the novice event on here, and that Newmarket run has strong correlation formlines, even though a lot has happeneded since that run for many, but i suspect their is a horse in there. Paddy Mathwes (Beverley) - Usually would've picked one of Joe Fanning ride at this track, but not totally bowled over by his rides, which suggest the unraced horse is most probably his best chance. However a rare chance is given to paddy Mathers whom seems to have a decent book of rides. The ones that standsout to me is 8.40 LOVE YOUR WORK who can work a vital track position from draw number 5 and is due a win on turf. best of luck with your plays |
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Ascot Jocks - 3/10 - Hard times to find the placer as selection Highland Avenue cant muster the speed to get into the frame. -£37.50
Thirsk Jocks 7/14 - Easier racecard to find a winner, espcially once discounting David Nolan rides, David Allan delivers the good +29.57 Sligo Jocks 3/11 - Chris Hayes had the bulk of rides and quite frankly had a shocker throughout the card -£37.50 Brighton Jocks 7/12 - Each Jockey would've pointed in the way of an winner, Sean Levey placed on both rides and lands one (shame it was so short) +20.66 Beverley Jocks 3/9 - Each jockey lands one, but unfortunatly after toying with Joe Fanning rides, I went with Paddy Mathers who had a rare strong book of ride. The selection will have another day after losing his position and momentum in a messy race, fighting an uphill battle throughout. -37.50 Daily Total -62.27 Running total = £495.09 (stakes backdown) |
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I admire your persistence top3man however I think you've set yourself a very difficult task and you'll eventually end up breaking even at best.I think you would have a greater chance if you could devise a system that took away the subjective element . Nevertheless I enjoy reading the thread and wish you luck.
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Does feel like a circle is developing so there may well be some substance in that Posy.
last two days the jockpot has had 44 placers out 108 possiables, just under 41%. Will look into developing further criteria. Tomorrow's Jockpot Royal Ascot William Buick (ranked 1st) Hollie Doyle (ranked 2nd) James Doule (ranked 3rd) Ripon David Allan (Ranked 4th) Paul Hanagan (Ranked 5th) Paul Mulrenenan (Ranked 35th) Chelmesford Mark Cerhan (Ranked 8th) Franny Norton (ranked 17th) Jack Mitchell (ranked 21st) Hamilton James Sullivan (Ranked 19th) Paddy Mathers (Ranked 23rd) Ben Curtis (Ranked 41st) |
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Royal Ascot - William Buick 18.10 - Dalanijujo - Winner latest, Jumps in class, but isnt without chance up 4lbs and in form. Handles this type of ground
Hamilton - James Sullivan 13.30 - Bay Breeze - Tim Easterby in form, this one knows its job, consistent running style, draw advanatage and expected to be bang there. Chelmesford - Marc Cerham 20.23 - Too Shy Shy - Looks an interesting runner for Cerham tonight, drawn in a good position and posted an better effort last time. looks primed to becoming to herself, 3lbs off and 4lbs below mark, change of venue could benefit her Ripon - Paul Hanagan 20.30 - Maywake - Was interested in this one on debut as I liked the pedigree - was an eye catching finisher that day and looks to hold some potential |
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Everytime I start to lose faith in this system, it pulls me back in.
Bay Breeze - Shocking run, should've stuck with my initial thought of going for Ben Curtis mount whom rode a treble -£18.75 Dalanjunjo - Stuck on after losing his position on the turnning in and left to much to do, finished just outside the places, another Buick ride that looked like it was picking up but flattened out up the straight. Bit more luck would've been placed -£18.75 Too Shy Shy - Mark Cerhan riding well for his claim on the rank outsider and finishing a decent 2nd - Place return was 6.29-1. +110.62 Maywake - Paul hanagan - Was a little unbalanced in the dip at Ripon, but stuck on well to finish 2nd, a likeable sort. Place Return 0.71-1 +12.65 Day Total = +85.77 Running total = +£580.86 Been looking into Eliminating some of the subjective approach, Because I did pick wrong with William Buick in which I considered Both his placers today and James Doyle placer as well. How did the jockpot do Royal Ascot 3/16 Hamilton 3/11 Chelmesford 3/8 Ripon 3/8 |
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Jockpot for Thursday
Royal Ascot William Buick - Ranked 1 David Allan - Ranked 2 Hollie Doyle - Ranked 3 Lepordstown Kevin Manning - Ranked 12th Chris Hayes - Ranked 21st W J Lee - Ranked 28th Ripon James Sullivan - Ranked 25th Paddy Mathers - Ranked 30th Connor Beasley - Ranked 38th Chelmesford Sean Levey - Ranked 17th Cieron Fallon - Ranked 24th Laura Pearson - Ranked 42nd Lingfield No Jocks on my list |
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2.50 BARYSHNIKOV ( C BEasley) - Went well in the Zetland Gold Cup. This is easier and expected to be bang there
3.05 ONE RULER (W Buick) - Dropped in class and wasnt disgraced in Derby or 2000 Guineas (must get one of Buick right) 4.30 RITCHIE VALENS (Laura Pearson) - Better then bare form latest and better off with that rival. Useful confident claimmer on board adds to claims 7.30 TWENTYBORE (W J LEE) - Hampered turning in last time, seems to be progressing and should run a big race of same mark |
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Thursday result.
1 placed 3 unplaced. -112.50 + 26.36 = -£86.14 Running total = £494.72 (stakes down again) jockpot Ripon 3/11 Chelmesford 5/12 Ascot 3/8 lepordstown 5/13 Tomorrows jockpot Wolverhampton Callum Sheppard - Rank 2nd Mark Cerhan - Rank 4th Hollie Doyle - Rank 6th Windsor Marco Ghiani - Rank 3rd William Buick - Rank 5th Oisin Murphy - Rank 10th Chepstow David Probert - Rank 33rd Pat Dobbs - Rank 46th Luke Morris - Rank 54th Ballinrobe W J Lee - Ranked 11th S Routledge - Ranked 19th Ronan Whelan - Ranked 23rd |