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You seem to have most aspects covered on here so I wondered if you could answer this: which would you consider to be the better back bet at SP, a 2/1 fav that had steamed in from 3/1 or a 2/1 fav that had drifted from Evens?
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Depends entirely on the fav, but as a rule of fumb you can hardly go wrong with blindly backing the steamer at those odds. But when the fav drifts you should analyze possible reasons for the drift and whether the reasons are valid. If they're not valid, I call it a clown drift. That's when the fav usually wins easily.
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