Andrews 2021 Lay Thread

Trusty

WD, a nice selection (and price). I didn't even see the race in the end.

Fronter

Thank you.

Always travelling well and surprised it went off at 5.4 on BF but only returned 7/2. Wish they all went like that!

Nice one AIS did it nicely

WD with the banker Andrew. I somehow managed to get 2.73 Ave (just lucky).

n1 AIS on the lay

Top tipping Andrew
Well done

Good sunny Bavarian morning Guys,

Many thanks for the posts and WD again with your winning selection Trusty.

3 bets suggested yesterday, 2 made a profit although the last (outsider EW) let me down.

All Class was well backed at 10/11f (although there were 5 non-runners of minimal significance) and duly won, easier than it may have appeared, at least to my eyes.

WD with the 2.73 PHS, i was on at several rates in the morning albeit 2.60 the higher of them. No RF factor at 2.60 either so maybe i was matched after the withdrawls.

Didn't race with the leaders on this occasion, but was always prominent around 6th/7th until getting much closer at the 3rd last, travelling well. I thought she had the race won after the next flight although Davy Russell (late jockey replacement) had to shake the reins a little before pulling away. It will be interesting how much the handicapper raises her on Tuesday, but i suspect Ronan knows there is more left in the tank. I was particulary sweet on this one, even mentioning it to a few forum posters the night before.

The 9/4f Remastered (a lay) looked to be travelling best 3 out in the Tommy Whittle (must have been short IR) but as mentioned he was conceding a lot of weight to much of the field and 18 lb on a rain softened track (heavy in places) to an eased down winner was just too much. The race took its toll with only 8 finishing and sadly Buzz De Turcoing fell and was fatally injured.

Speaking of injury, Daryl Jacob was taken to hospital after falling at the first fence on Caribean Boy (Ascot) but i haven't seen any media reports on his condition this morning. Let's hope he's released today and back riding soon.

My EW outsider Llandinabo Lad (18/1) finished 6th, although he didn't run a poor race by any means and actually led approaching the 3rd last, but faded and was beaten at the next. It was a decent pace and although he was prominent most of the way, simply not good enough on the day, but it was a good class handicap to be fair.

One of NH racing enigmas, Champ won the Stayers and may not be going back chasing after winning although it would have been interesting if Buzz had been in the field. I wasn't overly surprised that connections are unsure of future plans, but i would certainly favour flights over fences if he was mine.

Nicky gets a lot of stick on here, specially where entries and subsequent withdrawls are concerned but he knows the time of day on a NH racing clock and i actually like the stable (i may change my mind if Constitution Hill doesn't win next time out ).

I mentioned a bumper runner at Navan American Mike in my post (although not as a tip of course) but unfortunately his main rival (and stablemate) was withdrawn hence the restricted SP. Nevertheless he was impressive, visually and on the clock. It's going to take a very good one to beat him at Cheltenham and 3/1 with the books could look good in March. If i had to select an ante-post bet at over 5/2 for the festival today, this would be the one.

A run of the mill Sunday as far as racing is concerned, 3 meetings and oddly enough 6 of the 7 races at Fakenham are all class 4. Relatively small fields and quite a few shorties here including Nicky Hendersons Lelantos that i think is his lowest rated NH horse (100) in the stable. I certainly wouldn't be lumping on this one at 2.36.

There wasn't anything that really jumped off the page anywhere this afternoon, certainly at odds against, but there is one over the Irish Sea i like Nells Well (Thurles 2.40) currently 3.35 on here. The penny appears to have dropped in her previous 4 runs with form figures of 1-2-2-1 and an increase in her rating from 99 to 118. The step up in trip to 24f looked a very positive move LTO (same trip today) winning easily, she has course experience and may have won her penulitmate race with just a little better luck in running. I think she's worth a small stake at the odds and have already been partly matched.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

Trusty

Andrew,

I think they've all gone to church.

Well done Anorak, good to see the Mo Celita Thirsk form come good eventually

3 bets suggested yesterday, 2 made a profit although the last (outsider EW) let me down.

I'd hardly call an 18/1 shot "let me down" (I guess you're only referring to keeping a 100% record though)

on a rain softened track (heavy in places)
Times suggest it was nowhere near (Soft).

Amen

^

Lucky Luciano,

Have a look at Boris's Bottle.

Happy Birthday ANDREW

We’ll all be clicking our fingers, tapping our feet and singing along when you open it up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=inS9gAgSENE

Good afternoon Guys,

Many thanks for the Birthday greetings Happysandwich, 39 yet again . No major celebrating, dinner in München city this evening but nothing wild and there are covid restrictions including a curfew on bars and restaurants between 22.00 and 05.00 anyway.

I only mentioned one selection yesterday, a back of Nells Well (Thurles 2.40) and anyone that also backed it was probably as infuriated as me. Strange tactics, led for several flights then slipped back through the field and at one time was around 6L off the pace in 4th (of 5). Moved up stylishly between the 3rd and 2nd last flights and looked all over the winner when taking the lead and going 1.5L up on the run-in (1.03 IR) but the evens favourite rallied and went ahead close home. She had jumped really well, but the favourite was the opposite and made several errors, in fact i suspect the jockey was superglued to the saddle. Joking aside, it was a good ride by him to get up and win, but i couldn’t believe it. That’s racing.

A busy morning and haven’t really had much chance to review the RP in detail, but what i have seen wasn’t overly exciting. I would be prepared to lay the Nicky Henderson newcomer Rudy Caprice in the bumper opener at Lingfield (12.30) run on the AW course. Unraced dam and first foal. This was up for a sale as a 3 year old, but appears to have an owner now. Laying a Nicky trained bumper debutant is risky, more so at it’s the only trainer/jockey combination entry, but 2.98 is short enough.

Over at Deauville it may be worth waiting for the listed race (4.20) with a back of the likely favourite Pennybaker. She has been a revelation since running on the AW, winning 3 from 3, easily as well, including one over CD and in decent times. Up in class, but improving and may even be better than her current RPR. Connections won the race last year. Simon and Ed Chrisford are responsible for the 2nd in the betting and another improving filly, but i think Pennybaker will have her measure and it may well be that Silvestre is the main danger (has been competing in better class).

Good luck and have a nice Monday all.

Well done in the bumper Andrew,he was beaten a long way out.

Well done on both bets Andrew and enjoy your birthday night out.

Happy Birthday Andrew

Terrific stuff Andrew !!
Even finds time to tip up a couple of winners on his birthday
Hope you have an enjoyable evening

   All the Best Andrew.

Wd Andrew and belated birthday greetings!

Good afternoon Guys,

Many thanks for my birthday greetings, very much appreciated (Glasgow ).

2 selections yesterday, both profitable. The first a lay of the Nicky Henderson bumper favourite Rudy Caprice in the opener at Lingfield (drifted from 2/1 to 5/2 on course) who finished a well beaten 7th of 9. I tried to find out how much he cost (up for sale in 2020) but no luck. Based on yesterdays’ run, probably not very much although it’s early days of course.

The other bet was a win on a Godolphin runner at Deauville, Pennybaker, well backed (5/4 in the morning to 9/10 SP) won nicely and in another good time. Looks to be still improving and who knows, maybe she could even run at the Lingfield AW championships next Easter.

On to this afternoon and 3 average cards albeit only to be expected at this time of the season (roll on Sunday). I didn’t fancy anything strongly but of the others i thought the Harry Fry trained On My Command was worth a small stake (Plumpton 1.25). Won LTO over the trip on debut for the stable and she’s obviously suited to sharp tracks, in particular at Plumpton (record 1-2). First run in a handicap and a mark of 114 is fair (receiving 5 lb from the top weight). Will probably lead and the course will suit these tactics. Odds of 2.80 are about right in my opinion.

Good luck and have a nice Tuesday all.

Well done Andrew,

You haven’t lost a bet since you were 39

Thanks Happysandwich, on a roll at 3/3, i should celebrate more often.

Well backed (i had 2.78) and won easily (14L).

Morning All,

Rudy Caprice cost 28,000 euros at the Land Rover sale in Ireland as a 3-y-old - i.e. about 18 months ago.

And on a different topic, the question 'what does it cost to own a racehorse' crops up every so often. Well here's the answer for my horse, Love Dreams, in 2021.


Basic training costs (daily fee, farrier, physiotherapy and vets)  -  £16,000

Daily fee is £36. Farrier is £90 every four weeks. Vets bills were approx £1,500.

Entry fees and riding fees  -  £2,850

Each entry attracts a surcharge of £2.45p on the sum shown in the race conditions, plus an admin charge by Weatherbys of £32.92. The flat race riding fees are £127.90 for a senior jockey, £106.80 for an apprentice. A half fee is charged for any non runner taken out after the jockey has been booked. For each riding fee, there is also a charge of £16.63 towards the Professional Riders Insurance Scheme.

Transport and staff costs for twelve runs  -  £4,100

Transport is £1.40 per mile. Staff costs are £12 per hour for the time away from the yard. Those costs can be halved if two horses run at a meeting.

So in round numbers, an outlay of £23,000 for a year in which Love Dreams raced twelve times.

Those runs produced one win, four seconds, three thirds and one fourth. Two sixth places also produced a small return and the only time he failed to pick up any money was when seventh in a big field at Newbury in October.

His total prize money amounted to £15,750, of which my share as owner came to £13,100. But the commission on the auction cost of buying him back after winning the seller at Wolverhampton, meant that £950 of that prize money was returned to the racecourse.

So after a year that might be regarded as fairly successful by the standards of the average horse running at his level, my net cost was about eleven grand.

No complaints, I’ve had great fun planning, watching and analysing. I never expect to make a profit and my expectations have never been misplaced in my time as an owner!

an interesting peace on the costs of keeping your horse in training theanorak, does every owner who has a runner have to pay the £ 16.63 towards the professional riders insurance scheme? and if so is do you think that is likely to change inview of the Freddie Tylicki outcome.

Ash,

Yes, every owner that uses a jockey has to pay the insurance charge, which is set at 13% of the riding fee - so it's more than £16.63 for a NH jockey, as the riding fee is higher.

There's a new charge being applied from Jan 1st which would cover a Tylicki type situation - see here for details:

https://www.roa.co.uk/resources/news-and-views/career-ending-insurance.html

thanks.

So right Alan, let’s get this straight.

If I can get 10 OAP’s who are surviving, like myself, on the State pension to chip in a grand each we can avail ourselves of a four legged friend and beat a path to your door ?

More like 2k (or 20 OAPs) and hope for one at least as successful as Love Dreams (far from guaranteed)

Brian,

Get your Grannie to knit you a green jumper with a yellow stripe down the front and on the elbows and stop causing trouble.

Happy,

It's an orange stripe!

And your £10k (or £20k), might cover the costs for a year, but first you have to buy your horse. In the case of Love Dreams, that was via a claim and he cost me £12,600.

^

A Happy Xmas and a prosperous New Year to one and all. How pleasant to be looking ahead to 2022 with Glentoby removed from the forum, hopefully for good this time.

I second that Alan and would also like to wish everybody a Merry Christmas and a Happy healthy 2022.

A happy christmas and a prosperous new year to all on here,my favourite thread.

I second that,second again,sorry about that,just couldn’t resist,seriously AIS is the only person i follow on this forum and long may his lay selections continue
I wish everyone a very merry Christmas and a happy and prosperous new year.Fred

Same here second again!

Been an avid reader from the beginning with an occasional post - I'm quite shy really.

A goodly number of intelligent, amusing and very knowledgeable people make this my go to thread first thing on a morning and then throughout the day

and fred c dobs

Have a happy Christmas everyone and may 2022 be a healthy and prosperous new year for you all.

Good afternoon and Christmas greetings Guys,

A time of the year that many readers are eagerly awaiting has almost arrived and i'm not referring to Turkey, Mince pies and copious amounts of Red Wine that pale into comparison up against the NH Boxing day fixture at Kempton. I've never been to this meeting and covid restrictions are certainly responsible for a non-attendance this year; i would have given anyones right arm to be there tomorrow and Monday. Never mind, ITV and Betfair will provide several hours of entertainment and although it's presented electronically, i have to be thankful i can watch it in any form, there are many families who have lost loved ones this year.

Paul Nicholls and the Kempton meeting go together like Christmas pudding and Sixpenny bits (younger readers may need to Google this) and i think he will be winning a couple of the Grade 1s tomorrow. Betting on novice chases is a brave mans game, but this one is a topical tip in the Kauto Star and Clan Des Obeaux was made for the King George VI. Having said this if Greanateen beats Shishkin at the course on Monday i will eat my oldest pair of socks. More on these races when the time arises.

It's not all racing either, Boxing day is synonymous with sport and tomorrow is no exception with World championship darts, the Ashes and football to name a few. The English premiership program looks interesting, but i suspect most eyes will be on Luton v Bristol City and rightly so.

Back to NH, my last back selection Harry Frys On My Command was well backed (6/5f) and won very easily (eased up) at Plumpton on Tuesday. The JJ O'Neill trained faller 3 out played a small part in the favourites success, but wouldn't have won if she had stayed on her feet. A feature of the win was her jumping that apart from the last flight was almost foot perfect and at a few of them she didn't touch a twig. The handicapper may not be in such a festive mood when he reasesses her on Tuesday and i suspect he will raise her 8 lb to 122 or thereabouts. Even so i think she has to be followed next time out in similar class, more so if she returns to Plumpton (1-2-1 at the track) or a similar sharp track. Next fixtures are 2nd and 19th Jnauary.

Did anyone notice that Charlies Fellows sent several runners to Doha yesterday ? Out of luck in the Group 1 Qatar Derby but took 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 7th (from 4 entries) in the 2 year old conditions race picking up almost £100K in the process, with £62K going to the winner. Not bad considering he had previously won a nursery at Catterick off a mark of 87 in September.

Alan

Many thanks for your Love Dreams training costs post, informative and interesting. Not a cheap hobby by any means, but at least his consistant form has reduced the overall financial burden and it could have been better with a few close finishes. Good luck in 2022.

With respect to your comments on the poster Glentoby, i agree entirely, although i'm not going to make a song and dance about it. I haven't seen the post that has presumably resulted in a ban, but a little birdie told me the actual words used and against a known C sufferer on here. A vile, despicable post and although drink and/or medication may have played a part, it was totally inexcusable.

All

Many thanks for the Birthday wishes earlier in the week, but more importantly the kind, supportive posts later relating to this thread and those previous to it. I never expected this laying theme (generally) to run for so long back in April 2018, but as i've mentioned several times before it isn't only about me and lay selections. It has evolved into a mini-platform where racing fans can basically discuss anything, as well as posting back/lay selections of their own and it is this that has made the thread popular.

Additionally i have met up with quite a few posters in the past few years (including a well-known bookie) initially at Newmarket (and since) as well as Sandown a few weeks ago, i have no doubt there will be other occasions in 2022. Thanks Guys.

Finally, i wish everyone a wonderful Christmas/festive season with loved ones (and some you would prefer not to see ). A racing break is actually welcoming and gives many the opportunity of spending quality time with the family and i'm no exception. No doubt my daughter will revert to her childhood and request we play snakes and ladders (or whatever) and i will be forced to watch the Snowman for the umpteenth time, but i don't get many chances in a year for this and it adds to the typical festive spirit.

OK that's it for me today, more tomorrow. Have a nice afternoon and evening all.

Good afternoon and Boxing day greetings Guys,

Racing fans are well catered as per usual on this festive day with 11 meetings and 74 races. Many of these are run of the mill, in fact typical of any Sunday afternoon but quality is certainly in force at Kempton and a couple of the Irish venues.

The King George VI is second only to the Cheltenham Gold Cup in the NH calendar (in my opinion at least) the roll call of winners is almost a history lesson of jump racing greats. Several have won the race more than once but Kauto Stars' record of 5 in 7 years is unlikely to be broken (at least in my lifetime) and he has complimented Paul Nicholls enviable record with 10 wins in the last 15 years. I think the trainer can add to this with Clan Des Obeaux who was a two time winner in 2018 and 2019, forget the run last year, he was coming off a hard race in the Betfair chase on heavy going at Haydock.

Mind you he's no gimme by any means, it's a decent field this year with a couple of younger 7 year olds that can also win. Frodon and Bryony will no doubt go off in front, but i really can't see him winning this afternoon (note to self i said the same LTO) in fact i think several will be in contention between the last couple of fences, all trying to chase CDO down.

Whatever the result in the KG i expect Paul to have already visited the winners enclosure earlier in the afternoon with Bravemansgame in the Kauto Star Novices (1.55) as i intimated in my post yesterday. Many punters will consider the race a coin toss, and up to a point would be correct, but i really like the horse and i'm looking forward to this race more so than the KG.

His jumping was a joy to watch at Haydock, as it was an Newton Abbott in his penultimate race. Harry didn't move a muscle beating the 159 rated Itchy Feet over a shorter trip LTO and 24f at Kempon will hold no fears for him. The race could be tactical as 3 of the 4 runner field like to set the pace, but i suspect Ahoy Senor and Kilteally Briggs will make it with Bravemansgame not too far away.

Ahoy Senor is clearly a useful type and jumps well enough (prone to the occasional error) and will not be a pushover at all, but i sense Harry will get Bravemansgame into a nice jumping rhythm and go in front from the final bend.

In my opinion even money is a good price for Bravemansgame, but as so often in supposed match races, i will be layer of one vying for favourtism (and at not much higher odds) due to the pace angle and it wouldn't be the biggest shock of the day if one of others won. Here is part of what i mentioned after i put him up on here LTO.

We did see another top class winner at Haydock, this time a novice, Bravemansgame who was surprisingly available at 4/5 on here in the morning. Whilst the winning distance was nowhere near the chasm A Plus Tard won by, the manner of his win was very impressive, Harry never moved on him and i could have ridden it. In my opinion he's the best novice seen so far this season and it will take a good one to beat him at Kempton next time out.

This was in November and since then i've been to Sandown and seen another very good novice in Edwardstone albeit over a shorter trip.

For a small stake EW selection Jacamar (1.20) appeals assuming odds of 13 or 14 are available. It took him a few races get his act together in 2020 and could be considered a little unlucky LTO (mistake at the final flight) when he was beaten in a photo off a mark of 128. A couple of lbs higher this afternoon and a very tricky handicap, but if he can race more prominently this time he could surprise. Note he also won at Wincanton on this day last year.

Shops are closed here and covid restrictions add a few more constraints, but i'm happy staying at home to watch ITV racing this afternoon. In the meantime good luck later and have a nice Boxing day with your loved ones.

Jacmar 

Superb, well done.

WD Andrew - saved the day for you after the excitement of the Luton v Bristol City game was removed from the program!

well done Andrew, great pick

Some good stuff here as usual, shame I missed the post earlier. Merry Xmas all and well done Andrew.

2/2, well done

wd AIS

You have your prosperous new year already VWD .

Just got back (after visiting relatives) and seen the results. That's some double Andrew. VWD.

Dec 26, 2021 -- 7:41PM, PHS wrote:

Just got back (after visiting relatives) and seen the results. That's some double Andrew. VWD.

I did the two winners but not CDO.

Well done on Todays selections Andrew.

All the best for the New Year to you and all your Readers.

Good morning Guys,

Many thanks for the WD posts yesterday, much appreciated as always.

A profitable day, 2 winners from 3 selections, one of these being Bravemansgame at short odds (albeit surprisingly not the favourite at 6/5) but icing on the cake with Jacamar (11/1).

It wasn't a surprise the latter raced from the rear of the field in last place for much of the race although i was hoping he would be a little more prominent (it appears i would be hopeless at giving jockeys riding instructions). Approaching the final bend he was pushed along, but in the straight (after 3 out) i thought he might nick 3rd place and give me a small profit. Made slow but relentless progress from the 2nd and going to the last fence i think i was more animated than Danny as i could see he was staying on very strongly and this was my first bet of the day. The rest as they say is history.

Bravemansgame was next up and he didn't disappoint, i expected him to win and even mentioned to a few posters in the morning he's the best novice jumper of a fence i've seen this season. His main rival certainly helped the winners cause in this context, but there is no doubt who was, and is, the better horse. I sense Harry thought he had it won after jumping 3 out, i did, and felt it was a only a case of when he was going to press the button.

So where does the winner go from now, PN wasn't giving much away and i wouldn't want to second guess with respect to ante-post betting. Aintree and the KG VI were mentioned post race, but i wouldn't read too much into a 'need for a flat track' reasoning at all, the stable obviously know they have a horse that potentially could go all the way to the top so future plans will be carefully discussed between connections. Oddly enough, he still has an entry in the Cheltenham stayers hurdle. One thing is sure, it's going to take an exceptional novice to beat him and i will be backing him again next time out.

I should have stayed with Danny Mullins in the KG VI who completed a win double after Jacamar, but i would have picked most of the field before Tornado Flyer proving that Tony Kalvin of Betfair fame is a far better judge of horse flesh than yours truly, tipping it ante post at 33/1.

My selection Clan Des Obeaux ran well enough in 2nd to supplement his good record in the race, but simply wasn't good enough on the day although weather and pace played its part. We all knew Frodon would front run, but i was surprised a jockey of Rachaels calibre went head to head with him from the off. The pace was way too fast on softer going than anticiapted in the morning and took its toll with half the field not finishing. I'm not taking anything away from the winner, but from a form perspective it should be treated with caution.

On to this afternoon and quality is in abundence with graded races at 4 of the 6 meetings, although several of these will involve taking the odds-on. I don't have any issue with this, but on the right horses of course. I was lucky enough to be at Sandown earlier this month and although i didn't back Edwardstone was very impressed with the win. The favourite Thirdtimelucki underperformed, but i doubt he would have won if he hadn't. He should win again and money backers will probably combine this one with Shishkin on the same Kempton card (who was my initial reason for going to Sandown). I really can't see him being beaten this afternoon, even allowing for a trust in fitness, but the odds reflect this.

At Chepstow and more sensible odds, there are a couple i fancy, the first is the Gary Moore trained Porticello (1.40) currently racing around 5.0 on here. Winner of his only run in France, a decent 3 year old conditions race beating Magistrato (who re-opposes) and the form is strong (5 of the 7 finishers have won since). Looked good next time out in a listed race at Wetherby, and ran to a better level when getting touched off in a grade 2 at Doncaster, staying on well after fluffing his lines at the last flight.

I was a little surprised to see Harry Cobden riding here rather than Kempton as he doesn't really have a stand out mount this afternoon, although Take Your Time looks to be his best chance.

The Welsh Grand National is not always a daunting prospect trying to find the winner even allowing for the fact it's often a gruelling race. Lightweights do well and single figure odd winners are not uncommon, but irrespective of this, it's still a large field handicap on very soft going. My EW selection is the Venetia Williams trained and lightyl raced 6 year old Hold That Thought (2.50) and as she has won this race on a couple of occasions will know exactly what is required. I suspect she had this race in mind for the horse as far back as Janaury when he was runner-up on the course (just under 24f). A 3rd place at Exeter followed but he was well backed and won a nice little staying handicap at Carlisle LTO. He was obviously thought to be a staying type early on, in fact 6 miles on heavy going at Ffos Las would be ideal, but joking aside, i think he will be in the front rank throughout the race and then it's a case of is he good enough.

Win odds of 11 on here are fair enough, but stakes on both my selections will only be small and as long as Shishkin wins, i will have a profitable day.

I'm taking this week off work and a couple of Bavarian city trips (via DB trains) are in the planning although my daughter wants to drag me into the city centre to spend Christmas vouchers. We have a deal, ITV racing this afternoon, shopping tomorrow.

Good luck and have a nice Monday all.

Morning Andrew,

Bravemansgame doesn't have an entry in the Stayers Hurdle, nothing does yet - that's just a guess by the Racing Post. Entries for the race aren't made until January 11th.

I'll be a layer of Shishkin this afternoon, partly because I reckon he won't be given a hard race if it comes to a battle, partly because, for all his brilliance, I don't think he beat much over fences last season, partly because Henderson seems to me to be setting out his excuses pre race. Obviously it's a bet that could be made to look very silly, but that's always a risk with laying the short ones.

Afternoon Alan,

You correctly assumed i noticed Bravemansgame so called Stauyers Hurdle entry in the RP, i wasn't aware of the opening date although it was never on the cards of course.

As for Shishkin i understand why you (and no doubt others) feel he could be a lay this afternoon, more so given he's 1/2 at best. Looking at the whole picture there are question marks that need answering of course, first time out of novice class, delayed preparation, fitness and the highest rated rival he's faced, but i don't have significant concerns with these, at least not enough to put me off.

The class of opponent he beat as a novice chaser may not be as good as those that Altior did, but he beat them easily and he was a top class hurdler (the Supreme win reads well). I like the horse and although his main rival will not be a pushover i think Nicky will have him ready to win. Track and going are fine.

I have backed him although not to the extent of going overboard. If he loses i will be disappointed, but the financial implication will not be an issue.

Thanks for posting an opinion and good luck.

W/D     ANDREW

who needs yer lays when you keep putting up winners

well done again Andrew

Very silly it is then!

If you lay at 4/9, you can afford to look silly two times out of three and still be counting your winnings at the end of the day Alan.

andrew, thank you for all your posts this year, have been a very interesting read.

seem to recall last year you like me was a fan of five star getaway an improving young chaser of christian williams, today he carried on that improvement, hope you backed him.

WD again Andrew

Good afternoon Guys from a drizzly and miserable looking München.

Thank you for the posts.

A small profit from a couple of selections (always nice to get the first one right) with a 100/30 winner and an EW in the Welsh GN who was PU.

Porticello won the grade 1 juvenile finale hurdle and easily at that (8.5L) but as a race it was marred by circumstance and incident. A couple of flights were omitted due to false ground leaving only 5 to be jumped, and the saddle slipped causing the favourite to jink at the 3rd (superb recovery by the jockey). Irrespective of this i doubt the result would have been any different as the winner was always travelling strongly in the latter stages and the further they went the better he looked (like a lot of ex-French runners the underfoot conditions were ideal.

This was his 3rd win in 4 runs (debut in France) and he may have been unlucky in the other finishing a close 2nd after an error at the last and switching. One of the better juveniles around although i doubt he's a Triumph hurdle winner but could develop into a decent stayer in time (and over fences).

My EW selection Hold That Taught was well backed (17/2) from the early morning price and although making some headway 5 out was never really involved and eventually PU. This wasn't necessarily a poor run, only 5 of the original 20 field finished the race and he's a lightly raced 6 year old who will win again in future.

I mentioned money buying backers would probably combine Edwardstone and Shishkin in a win double and they duly obliged, but these were not tips of course. The former is a very decent novice and the latter is possibly the best 16f chaser around. As mentioned i couldn't see him being beaten and he was my initial reason for a trip to Sandown and the Tingle Creek earlier in the month (the posters i met there knew i would have had a few bob on) and it's fair to assume he would have won that day.

So what did we learn yesterday, probably not very much. He was 4/9f in a Grade 2 race, take out Greaneteen and it was a non-event. Bryony and Paul said the latter hated the ground and they know better than me, but he has won (and run well enough) on soft/heavy in the past. He's also won couple of Grade 1's and rated 167 but was made to look ordinary after the 3rd last (both being niggled a little around the bend) and the manner in which Shishkin skipped clear was certainly impressive, more so considering comments by Nicky and the ITV paddock judge beforehand.

With respect to the Champion Chase i know Ruby Walsh has a very high opionion of the WPM trained Energumene and i suspect most pundits would agree this one is probably the only danger to Shishkin at Cheltenham in March, or anywhere else for that matter. Would i back him at 4/5 today, no is the immediate answer, albeit simply due to a waiting period of 11 weeks and possible health scares, speaking of which there isn't much coming out of the WPM stable regarding their potential star. I'm happy to lump on at shorter odds on the day knowing i get a run.

Personally i very much doubt Shishkin will be beaten this season.

Favourite backers have had a decent winning run in the festive season so far, most (if not all) of the good things at Kempton and Ireland have won. I've also had a good run since Monday last week, both on this thread and financially, but we all know these runs come to an abrupt end eventually.

I did fancy Mahlers Promise at Leicester (was trading at 4.3) and a lay of the favourite Call Me Lord, but this meeting is now abandoned and to be honest i'm not overly interested in anything else this afternoon so i will give it a miss (i may have a lay to post at Newcastle later this evening). I promised i would join my daughter for a shopping jaunt in the city centre and you don't break promises with daughters.

Good luck and have a nice Tuesday all.

Alan

Not a silly lay at all as The Management intimated to, it's all about opinions anyway and without opposing ones, there wouldn't be a market. There were reasons for opposing him and you stated them, even Frankel had doubters and layers (thankfully).

Ashleigh

Thank you. Yes i remember we were both fans of Five Star Getaway and i knew he was running, but just thought the handicapper had caught up with him and he was up in trip. A previous run over 24f in a similar race didn't scream out stayer, but what do i know ().

I actually only had 5 bets and 4 of them were mentioned on my post. Once Shishkin had won i was only interested in the Welsh GN and even that bet was only a tenner EW earlier in the day.

FA Cup 3rd round
Saturday 1st January 3:00pm

Leyton Orient v Bristol Rovers

Two Cinderella teams - who will the slipper fit ?

^
Ignore the above.

It’s NOT a cup game Saturday

Hi Andrew,
Happy, healthy and prosperous New Year to you and everyone who reads or contributes on here.
Really enjoyable and informative forum.
Hoping you will continue in 2022 with no lunatic intervention this time, haha.
Good luck with the new thread if you do.
Definitely need another revenue stream with prices rocketing

I agree LL - Thanks Andrew for all your posts in 2021. Here's to 2022!

And I agree with LL and Mr S

Long may you continue posting throughout 2022!

Good morning Guys,

Many thanks for the comments, much appreciated as always.

There is an interesting runner at Punchestown (12.45) this afternoon, the WPM trained juvenile Vauban who makes his hurdle debut and considering high profile connections the media hype machine appears to have ignored it somewhat although this may change post race if he wins.

Ex-French raced and only on the flat, 2 minor places (4th) followed by 2 wins from a total of 4 runs. The form of his debut and subsequent run has been franked by the winners who have both won since, and in case of the latter race a proven group performer who was runner-up in the German Derby.

He won easily (4L) next time (3rd and 4th have won since) and it was after this race that current connections must have seen some future potential as a sale was agreed albeit with a proviso the horse could run next time out in the same owner/breeders colours in a listed race (obviously for the Black type status). He duly won after trouble in running (good turn of foot).

Rated 104 and both wins on soft.

Good mentions by Ricci and Danny Mullins. Was entered on 26th and 27th at Limerick and Leopardstown respectively.

For this afternoons race, the odds against have gone (highest matched was 2.24) and is currently trading around 1.73 but an ante-post bet for the Cheltenham Triumph hurdle at 16/1 (with several books) could be a nice trade after the race. I backed both last night.

It has to win for me to boost chances of promotion in the daily nap competition.

Good luck and have a nice Friday all.

Wishing everyone (and loved ones) a Happy New Year 2022 .

Happysandwich

Bristol City are certainly playing in glass slippers, another 90+ minute goal conceded yesterday, i've lost count how many times this has occured, not only this seasoin but the previous as well.

Lucky

Yes a new thread starts tomorrow and the only difference will be if i post a lay it will be subject to a P/L status (just as the first thread in 2018). Same theme, max one a day, 5/2 or under and matched to win a level 50 stake. I've missed profit by posting randomly too many times on this thread.

Morning Andrew,

Vauban an interesting horse for sure - I'd researched him when I first saw him in the Triumph betting. His breeding is, to put it politely, nondescript. The sire never won anything more exciting than a Listed race and Fabre actually sent him over here to finish second in the Horris Hill. It seems unlikely he would have got a place at stud other than as a son of Galileo, and he started out in 2016 with a feww of 3,000 euros. That has risen in the last two years off the back of the career of Sealiway and his 2022 fee will be 30,000 euros!

He's produced a few winners over hurdles in France, but nothing top class. The dam was next to useless, with a career record on the flat in France of 1/23 and her handicap mark on retirement was equal to 41 over here. This is her first foal. So Vauban has already left his parentage behind on the flat.

As for winning on 'soft', if you watch this replay of his Listed win, you'll see that there are lies, damned lies and French going reports - he's the one in red:

https://www.equidia.fr/courses/2021-07-19/R3/C4

The runner-up had won a handicap off 84 on his previous start, although clearly, Vauban did well to win under a less than clever ride by an apprentice unable to claim.

Afternoon Alan,

Many thanks for your appraisal, much appreciated as always.

I agree with the breeding perspective but hopefully Vauban can emulate Sealiway or Kenway.

All i want is for him to win well this afternoon with positive comments from WPM/PT post race so i can trade the ante-post bet. I'm obviously putting my neck on the line posting it on hurdle debut and could look pretty stupid if he fails to show anything, so fingers crossed.

The horse certainly got the jockey out of trouble LTO, but did it well.

Good luck today.

Beaten by a fast diminishing 0.5L and with a better jump at the last may even have won. Not a bad run first time out, but disappointing he didn't win of course. The extra distance of the Triumph Hurdle looks to be in his favour, but i doubt there were many ripples in the ante-post betting. The front 2 may be above average.

Ground awful there today and more than likely nothing like it'll encounter at Cheltenham in March.

Congratulations Andrew on keeping this interesting thread going throughout the year. Happy new year to you and all those who have contributed to the thread.

Many thanks for posting throughout 2021 Andrew.

Happy New Year to all

Happy New Year to everyone on this thread.

From the two of us at 22 for ‘22
(Andrew can confirm that’s my house number).

A Happy New Year Andrew and many thanks for all
your hard work this last twelve months...Cheers

Good morning Guys,

Happy New Year 2022 to all readers and your respective loved ones, lets hope this year brings a significant reduction in the current pandemic and a return to some sort of normality, although i'm not holding my breath, certainly where i am.

Many thanks for the comments above and to all posters that made a contribution, however small, in 2021, all of which made it an interesting thread and profitable on occasion. Please continue to post this year, your input is very much appreciated (excluding the obvious of course) and i'm thankful for it.

I will scroll back and update the P/L status (for those posted as Lay Post) but whatever the profit/loss is, it will be minor. I would have done much better if every lay i posted was accounted for, but spilt milk etc. I will continue to post lays (and occasional backs) but at least one lay will be subject to P/L (as previous threads).

A new 2022 thread will start shortly, but regular readers may remember i'm moving back into München city this weekend and the logisitcs will be a little time consuming (although most of the packing is done now). I've lived in a lakeside town (by the Ammersee) for 2 years since moving out from the city centre in 2019 and i will miss it, the views are beautiful and on a clear day the Alps are clearly visible on the other side of the lake. Having said that i'm only an S-Bhan ride away and will make occasional visits.

I expect to be here all year, albeit still commuting to Linköping/Sweden on a monthly basis for a weekend stay and not only to clean the windows.

Good luck and enjoy this celebratory day.

Punchestown

It certainly looked heavy at your namesake track and it suited the winner (won on heavy before) although i wouldn't use going as an excuse for Vauban who ran well enough, but was simply not good enough. On a different day he could have won (a couple of sketchy jumps, specially at the last didn't help) and if both were to race again, i would be on the same horse. Having said that, take nothing away from the winner who did it well and maybe both are above average.

I was a little disappointed with Vauban, but it's racing and who knows, he could hose up next time and my ante-post bet becomes tradeable again (that's the theory anyway ).

I never expected the SP, he was odds against the night before.

Good luck.

Happy New Year AIS and to all the posters !!

Lets hope we have a better year than the last couple of years !!

A link to all Andrew's results since 2019

Thanks for all your hard work!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WHfaou2KbsZWqMTpWGDiJY5T_kikH1r4V-p7_lsqMe4/edit?usp=sharing

Mr Spreadsheet,

Thank you, for doing all that work.
I know from experience it’s an awful lot of work putting data in Excel sheets.
Is there any reason the P/L’s are not in currency form?

Andrew thinks it's the next best thing to collecting from a betting shop.

Thanks Happy - It's now in currency form

Mr Spreadsheet,
Many thanks for your work on the above, remember some of those races from 2018. I must get out more !
Andrew now has the easy bit, making it look profitable for 2022  !!

*2019 even

Good morning Guys,

A public holiday in Germany for Epiphany (and most of Europe) so a free day for me to play catch-up after moving to another apartment at the weekend closer to the city centre (4 stops on the S-bahn).

I doubt i'll be posting on this lay thread again so it will probably sink into the forum vaults never to be seen again, just as all the others since April 2018. It's been fun and contribution from many posters has certainly improved it, and in this context my thanks to all, it was/is very much appreciated.

I will be starting a new thread (same title, but dated 2022) in due course, probably before the weekend. As far as P/L selections went (headed as Lay Post) i didn't excel at all in 2021 and only made 28 selections in the year (in 2018 i made 66 in the first 70 consecutive days with 4 x NRs).

Pre-commission i made enough profit to buy an ice-cream and with 2% a small loss (and this is the one that counts) the first time in 5 threads i had done so. If i had included all lays i have no doubt there would have been a reasonable profit, but this was down to me (spilt milk and all that). On the new thread it will be different.

England v South Afri

Many thanks and likewise.

Happysandwich, Mr Spreadsheet and Lucky Luciano

Many thanks for the posts, in particular to Mr Spreadsheet for taking the time and effort to create the excel record of my P/L lay selections in 2019, 2020 and 2021. The poster Striding Edge (not read anything from him lately) did the same in 2018, i'm flattered and extremely grateful, it must be a laborious task as Happy alluded to, so hopefully i can make it worth recording in 2022.

Good luck and have a nice Thursday all.

A belated Happy New Year to you Andrew and to all on the thread. Looking forward to the new attack on the old enemy this year.

Good morning Guys from a very snowy München,

A couple of days ago i wrote it was doubtful i would be posting on this thread again, that it would drop off and i would start a new one for 2022. The latter is still the case, probably this afternoon or tomorrow, but in the meantime i want to mention Constitutiion Hill who runs in the Tolworth Hurdle later. Not as a tip of course, we can all pick them at 1.42).

Regular readers know i'm a fan of the horse, specially the posters i go racing with who are probably fed up with me mentioning it to them over the past week (). I was at Sandown (Tingle Creek day) when he made his hurdle appearance and it was no secret on course that those at Seven Barrows thought he could be decent, consequently was well backed during the afternoon although i don't think he ever reached favoustism. Ed Thompson/Brian and i actually discussed it before racing started, but i didn't have a bet in the race (i actually thought Outlaw Peter was the EW value at better odds than the eventual SP).

At the 2nd last i mentally wished i had backed CH as he was travelling strongly and between the last couple of flights it looked as though Nico was simply biding his time to press the button before quickening up and powering away on the run-in to win by 14L.

There were 2 other 16f hurdle races on the card that afternoon, each one a handicap won by Naturally High and Sammarive, both experienced, although the latter is lightly raced. To put the performance into some sort of perspective winning times of the 3 (CH first) were 4m 5.80s, 4m 13.20s and 4m 12.25s. Weights carried were 10-12, 10-8 and 10-7 (respectively)

Sectionals show the race was run at a reasonable pace and the last 3 furlong splits were impressive (all under 15s) certainly the final one on 14.26s. The other 2 didn't come anywhere close to this, in fact both winners were over 16s.

Of course the going may have deteriorated during the afternoon, but if it did, it certainly
wasn't significant and the manner of the win was worthy of graded status without question.

I've stated on here before that in my opinion CH will turn out better than Jonbon
and i stand by that, certainly up to circa 2.29 this afternoon (and hopefully afterwards).

First Grade 1 race of the year, the Tolworth has been won by some decent types in bygone years, some may remember Grand Canyon and Desert Orchid to name a couple, but more recently by Somerville Boy who went on to win the Supreme. If CH wins impressively this afternoon he may even displace Jonbon as favourite, but my bets are for this afternoon only.

Nicky has a good record in the race and has won it a couple of times for CH owner Michael Buckley. Another i remember is L'ami Serge who won very easily (14L) on heavy going back in 2015 (4/9f) and i suspect it may be the case today.

In my opinion there is only one ? that could negate him being named as the proverbial good thing and that is heavy going, although he runs well enough on soft, but i expect him to win. I think Jetoile will take them along at a decent pace and this will suit the favourite. I also feel a few of these will be running with the Betfair hurdle in mind.

Having said this, i've been in the game long enough to know there isn't such thing as a certainy (i've only known 2 in a lifetime of betting). I've got it wrong before and will do again, but to help my cause i haven't napped it in the daily competition ().

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.

Trusty

Many thanks and likewise.

Morning Andrew,

Decided to go to Sandown Park today despite the forecast inclement weather and no trains from waterloo going stopping at Esher instead racegoers will getting a replacement bus service from Surbiton( Sandown mgmt cant be happy)

Getting a lift so that swung it for me.

Should be there in time to hopefully watch Gary Moore's Moulins Clermont take the first in comfort.

Ran down the field last time at Fontwell when evens fav just beating his stable mate Hayedo which won earlier this week easily. GM horse were going through a quiet spell at the time a few short priced runners ran below form. He is in top form right now, getting 6lb from Romeos Bond who only just beat the aforementioned Hayedo last time as Sandown. should be suited by the soft going as well and Moore has won this race in the past twice in last 9 years

The danger according to the betting is Malakahna, filly who won a small race at Fakenham on good going, no subsequent form boost and her last race was was better class but accorded to RP analysis form is suspect due to slowly run, don't fancy the other two so hoping the fact MC was so short on his debut he will show why today.

See Blairgowrie ( mentioned in you previous thread ) running in a handicap today over a more suitable trip 2.40 at Wincanton, looks a very hard race but will watch with interest.
also fancy over at wincanton 2.05 Desque de Lise will love the rain and getting a lot of weight from the top two,
hoping he leads all the way ( done in the past )as my pick in the comps


Good luck all

Lucky

Have a fantastic day at Sandown, i envy you. If Boris and the German authorities had recinded covid test/quarantine restrictons prior to a few days ago i would be joining you. I always wanted to see Constitutions Hill next run as you know. Please pass on my best wishes to Ed and Brian and with due respect to them i hope you have a winning day. Good luck with your other selections.

As an EW on the card i will play is Mack The Van in the 3.35. CD winner and will love the ground. Won a resonable handicap LTO at Exeter on season debut and should be fitter today off a winnable mark of 130.

Roadworks right outside Sandown Park, going to cause mega jam today, unless they have removed them for weekend - been there all week.

Lucky

WD with Moulins Clermont in the opener, hope you got to the course in time.

Nice one Andrew - I personally didn't bet on the race so you don't owe me £3.

Good morning Happysandwich/All,

It would have been £4

Constitution Hill did what many expected in the Tolworth and my comment in yesterdays post that he would emulate L'ami Serge who won by 14L on heavy going back in 2015 would have come to fruition if Nico hadn't eased him on the run-in. A good day for me (you may have sensed confidence in my email and WhatsApp group) and it was my largest bet since the US presidential election in 2020.

The pre-race figures (winning time and sectionals) were impressive and although heavy going was a question mark he has a soft ground action, won on the latter and there are several from the sire that act on heavy (Royale Pagaille a typical example). Mind you, we all know odds of 2/5 doesn't necessarily make a horse a good thing.

My regret was not being on course to see the race, but if Boris and German counterparts knew what they are doing i could have been.

So where does he go next ? The Supreme is the obvious target, but will he have another run beforehand. The last couple of Tolworth winners (Metier and Fiddlerontheroof) went straight to Cheltenham (both had much more racing experience than him) although Summerville Boy who did the double only had 4 races (including a bumper) before winning the big one directly after Sandown. Tolworth winners don't have a great record in the Supreme anyway.

I feel Nicky may like to get another run into him, possibly the Dovecote at Kempton on February 26th, it fits in the racing calendar, but it wouldn't surprise me if he didn't have another.

How decent is he ? I think he's very good although comparison with Sprinter Sacre, Altior and Shishkin et all is far too early to make, it's actually ridiculous. We can forget his P2P run where the form isn't anything special, he was ridden by a 5 lb claiming amateur, made a horrendous mistake at the last, but still nearly got up again to win. His novice hurdle win was impressive on the eye (and figures) the runner-up Might I is a reasonable yardstick (without going overboard) and although just as good yesterday it wasn't a strong grade 1 in my opinion. He's only run at Sandown, a course that obviously suits and a world away in track configuration to Cheltenham.

He races handily and his turn of foot is instant and impressive, his last furlong split yesterday was 17.23 (eased down) and this was best of the meeting, as it was in his previous race. He's improved since the TC and there must be more to come being so lightly raced.

I stated on here after the Tingle Creek i thought he was better than Jonbon and i stand by this; in a match bet at Cheltenham i know which one i will be wanting to back (assuming ground is not firm). The latter is a little fractuous and the first day crowd and festival experience may get the better of him. I will be a layer of the horse anyway and for several reasons.

Conversely, Constitution Hill is very layed back and almost appears to be sleeping in the preliminaries and mid-race, but certainly comes to life when Nico presses the button. I'm not suggesting he's a shoe-in at Cheltenham, but without question the more likely winner. If he has an interim race i will certainly be backing him and looking to go over wherever it is (assuming south of England).

Owner Michael Buckley made a valid point yesterday that the rain stopped during the race, maybe Constitution Hill is so good he can change weather patterns.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

andrew, listening to nicky this morning, looks like straight to the supreme, no plans for constitution hill or jonbon to go to the ballymore, or this years champion hurdle when asked.

I am always a bit cagey about Tolworth winners on heavy ground when it comes to Cheltenham as there's been a host of them (even wide margin winners) who have gone on to not much afterwards on better ground.

This horse could be the exception though.

Impressive performance.  Does anybody else think that Constitution Hill already hurdles like a chaser?

Good morning Guys,

Ashleigh/Punchestown/Davros, many thanks for the posts.

The Nicky Henderson interview was interesting enough although i wasn’t sure if you were referring to one with Nick Luck or Matt Chapman (not that it mattered) but i watched the latter yesterday. Matt has his critics and to a point i agree with a few of them, at least as a pundit/odds reviewer on the Opening Show where he’s a little OTT on occasion, but it’s all part of his exuberant ‘showbiz’ persona and at least he adds a lively contrast to the others. Mind you i think he’s good as a journalist/interviewer and certainly has an in depth knowledge of the game.

Nicky was as ‘diplomatic’ as ever, not giving too much away and what he did, i think many of us thought beforehand anyway. I would be very surprised if Jonbon goes for the Ballymore and even more so if Constitution Hill did, the latter is all speed in my opinion, at least this season (i’m aware he ran over 24f in a P2P).

As for a 2022 Cheltenham Champion Hurdle entry, i understand Matts reasoning for such a proposal (if Honeysuckle was a NR) but let’s not get carried away, even allowing for the fact Constitution Hill could be a bit special in time.

In the history of the race, only a dozen 5 year olds have won it since 1927 with a couple this century and i’m not going to review form books to see how many of these won with a 2/2 race record (under NH rules). Several of the 5 year olds went on to become greats, namely Sir Ken, Persian War and Night Nurse, so it’s clearly a task. At the moment it’s all about potential and although i have a very high opinion of him, i’m fully aware he’s only won a class 3 novice and a grade 1 with a sub-standard field on the same track, both runs on soft/heavy. Let him win the Supreme first and go for the CH in 2023.

Metier last year is a typical example of wide margin winners on heavy in the Tolworth, but what sets CH apart is a very laid back manner in the preliminaries and even during a race. It appears he’s lobbing along, then at the appropriate time Nico gives a shake of the reins and the response is immediate (almost like a turbo kicking in) quickening way impressively. Of course the opposition is going to be much harder in future and what will he be like under pressure/off the bridle, the Supreme may answer these questions.

As for his hurdling technique, i thought it was OK (a little high at a couple) without being spectacular. Nicky has already stated that anything CH and Jonbon do as hurdlers is a bonus and both are chasers in the making.

Good luck and have a nice Monday all.

Whitbread 2025 winner imo.