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Andrew.in.Sweden
02 Jan 21 07:57
Joined:
Date Joined: 22 Apr 19
| Topic/replies: 4,091 | Blogger: Andrew.in.Sweden's blog
Good morning Guys/Girls and a HAPPY NEW YEAR 2021 to all.

I don't need to start this thread by explaining history behind it as i did in previous years (most readers know it anyway) so lets get straight into the concept for those that are not familiar.

Conditions of each lay post will be exactly the same as they always were (since April 2018). Only one post in any given day (to prevent chasing) bookmaker odds of 5/2 or under and matched on here to win a level stake of £50. A copy of the bet will be shown as part of the post together with what i consider a reasonable reasoning for the lay selection. For complete transparency i will post the status and running P/L.

My first thread had 66 selections in 70 days but i was home for 5 weeks at the time and since then have become more infrequent simply due to work commitments although the latter has reduced a little in recently. I hope to be able to post more often in 2021.

The 4 previous threads (2 in 2018) were all profitable with an current overall gain of £2242 to a level stake (breakdown at the end of this post) although the last couple were a little disappointing. I could go into a lengthy synopsis into why but it would be pointless and appear i was looking for excuses.

I will also continue to post my 'thoughts of the day' albeit reduced in content (one banker and one EW) and primarily on Saturdays.

As on all my lay threads everyone is welcome to post, banter is more than welcome and all i politely request is no personal bickering please. We all noticed on the previous thread there are those that have no interest in the game or anything constructive to say (preferring to act as childish trolls) but this is sadly a reflection of social media we know today. 

My previous lay threads record (all on this forum)

Daily Lay Thread 2018 (Spring/Summer)
Total 66 selections (including Saturday and Sunday thread)
Success 55/66
Strike rate 83%
Overall profit +£1657 to level stake £50

Random Daily Lay Thread 2018 (late Summer/Winter)
Total 64 selections
Success 46/64
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£425 to level stake £50

Daily Lay Thread 2019 (reduced selections)
Total 78 selections
Success 56/78
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£81 to level stake £50

Random Lay Thread 2020 (reduced selections)
Total 36 selections
Success 25/36
Strike rate 69%
Overall profit +£79 to level stake £50

Good luck to all in 2021 Happy

I have a couple on a shortlist for today and expect to post later.
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Report Lucky Luciano July 2, 2021 1:32 PM BST
Yeah tried to get tickets for Sandown today but became sold out once restrictions were extended past June.

Personally I preferred Kelly brook on the big breakfast and not for her presenting skills Wink
Report sludge July 2, 2021 2:57 PM BST
Kelly Brook has always been one of my favs . I even like her more recent " chunky look "............what do u reckon LL ?
Report Lucky Luciano July 2, 2021 3:06 PM BST
I only hope she doesn’t read this forum…….”chunky” LaughLaughLaugh

I remember thinking they must have kept the studio on the cold side there were plenty of times she was smuggling peanuts Happy
Report sludge July 2, 2021 4:13 PM BST
Tbh LL......i love women with a decent bit of meat on their bones.Something to grab hold of and all that !
Report Shanelee1966 July 2, 2021 10:31 PM BST
The moderator just texted me and asked can you remain on topic CrazyLaughLaugh
Report happysandwich July 3, 2021 8:11 PM BST
Good evening lads,

Andrew has just emailed me 2 photos live from inside the stadium.

I knew he got a flight to Rome but he didn’t have a ticket – looks like he got lucky and got one at the right price.
He is inside and watching it LIVE.

They’ve just gone one up as I type at 8:09pm.


COME ON ENGLAND DO IT FOR ANDREW  !!!!

LaughLaugh
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 6, 2021 10:43 AM BST
Good morning Guys,

Back in München after a weekend in Rome for the England v Ukraine game. As Happysandwich mentioned i didn’t have a match ticket on Friday but i was prepared to buy one from one of the secondary web-sites (not the money grabbing ones) or failing this go to the UEFA football village near the Spanish steps (big screen) but i didn’t need to do either in the end.

I met several fans at Brussels airport (i was in transit) and one of them said his mate had a ticket, an official one from UEFA (with electronic transfer) and he was happy to take 75 euros face value. I gave him a 100 that i considered a bargain. It was simply a chance meeting so we created a WhatsApp contact and all met up later in a bar. I was in the same seating line with them, category 3/area D behind the goal, not the best view of course, but at least England were attacking ‘our’ goal in the 2nd half.

There were several fans in the city selling tickets at face value so not that difficult to get. Home based Brits were not allowed to travel but i suspect a good few did. The guys i met worked in Brussels.

The atmosphere was good and England certainly had the most support there. No problems with the Ukrainian supporters (some beautiful girls) and many were in the same bar as us, it was all fun and banter, even after the game we walked out together and took the shuttle bus.

There were so many security checks even after getting into the stadium and you needed a negative covid test (less than 48 hours old) and a passport otherwise no entry. Between the main gate and my seat i think i went through 7-8 checks of various forms, a few of them re-checking my covid test paper.

A great weekend and i didn’t read the RP or access BF at any time. My only bet on Friday was a back of Chez Hans (already mentioned) and an advance lay of Addeybb at slightly higher odds than i anticipated for the Saturday race. I didn't want to tempt fate with the football game.

Unfortunately no fan zones in München for the semis/final, Angela Merkel put a stop to this even before the tournament started, but Kennedys (Irish Bar) will have outside TV’s.

Shanelee1966 02 Jul 21 21:31 

The moderator just texted me and asked can you remain on topic


Shane, i leave the thread for a few days and it turns to debauchery. Mind you i have to agree with the guys ref Kelly Brook and Denise Van Outen, that really would be a happysandwich. LaughLaugh

Speaking of the latter poster, it was his 80th birthday on Sunday. Ignore GT/Leif, he is a real person (not me) and i hope i get to reach his age with all my faculties intact, not that i am suggesting he hasn’t (sorry J Wink).

HAPPY 80th BIRTHDAY to HAPPYSANDWICH Happy

Good luck and have a nice Tuesday all.
Report PHS July 6, 2021 2:53 PM BST
HB HSWink
Report happysandwich July 6, 2021 3:09 PM BST
Thanks PHS

I left school 65 year ago at age 15. That puts it into perspective.

Light Ale was a shilling a glass and my first wage packet was £4:50 a week.
Laugh
Report tanglefoot July 6, 2021 3:10 PM BST
Congrats
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 6, 2021 3:35 PM BST
my first wage packet was £4:50 a week.

Luxury (said in my best Monty Python voice) Laugh
Report TheAnorak July 6, 2021 4:22 PM BST
HS,

Or as we called it back then, four pound ten shillings. When you could go to the pub and have a splendid drunken evening with just a ten bob note.

Best wishes, Alan
Report FOYLESWAR July 6, 2021 4:29 PM BST
my first wage packet was £7.75 and i had to pay me mum £5 keep out of that  Cry
Report happysandwich July 6, 2021 5:08 PM BST
Alan,

£4 10s 0p

240 pennies to the pound.

A whip round in The Blind Begger in Mile End Rd for a party was 10 bob.
Just had to make sure you didn't jog Ronnie or Reggie Kray's elbow as you made your way to the bar. Laugh
Report Lucky Luciano July 6, 2021 7:42 PM BST
Andrew
Sounds like a you had a real good time in Rome, there were still tickets available through official channels this lunchtime for Sunday's final but only as part of a package with  meal hospitality etc starting at EUR 5,900, not for me even if I had the money at that price and you would be gutted if the worst happens and we don’t make it.

Belated happy birthday to Happy Sandwich 80 years young, real achievement, congratulations and wish you many more.
Report happysandwich July 6, 2021 8:42 PM BST
Thanks Lucky

I only started to feel old when the girls were calling me Mister.
Laugh
Report madhatters July 6, 2021 8:45 PM BST
Hope you got the fire brigade ready for all the candles on cake sarnie Grin
Report happysandwich July 6, 2021 10:55 PM BST
madhatters,

Lucky I didn't have long hair when I was blowing them out. Grin
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 7, 2021 10:20 AM BST
Good morning Guys,

There is a shortie running this afternoon i think can be layed, Rosa Mystica in the 3.55 Lingfield. Prevailed in a 3 way bunch finish LTO receiving 10 lb and 5 lb respectively from the placers. It was a class 3 selling race, but the form hasn’t really been franked since and going will be heavy (good then). She’s not exactly thrown in on handicap debut off a mark of 66 and i think one or two of these will have the beating of her.

I actually like Arboy Will to win the race around 11/4.

Good luck and have a nice Wednesday all.

Lucky

Thanks, an awesome weekend.

I was prepared to go to £200 for a match ticket otherwise i would have gone to the fan village, but it worked out nicely in the end, in fact it was relatively easy to get a ticket, i saw several fans in the city selling them at face value.

I totally agree about the final hospitality package, an absolutely crazy price; when i go to a game i’m not interested in a meal, i can go to a restaurant for that. I don’t want to be stuck in a box with a load of stiffs either, the atmosphere is cheering with the fans, jumping up and down etc. i don’t get many opportunities to do this often (it’s frowned upon in the office Laugh).

Happysandwich

I’ve never met the Kray twins or been in the Blind Beggar although i’ve passed it on the coach route from Stansted airport to Liverpool street a good few times. On one occasion the driver actually pointed it out to everyone.

As for long hair ……………… don’t you mean no hair. Wink

Alan

Good luck with Love Dreams at Ascot on Friday.
Report GLASGOWCALLING July 7, 2021 10:56 AM BST
Belated Birthday greeting Happy.

   
Report TheAnorak July 7, 2021 11:25 AM BST
Thanks Andrew - straight course and soft ground seemed to suit him at Lingfield, so hopeful he'll run well. Delighted to find only 13 declared from an entry of 32, which might be mostly down to shortage of jockeys, with five meetings on Friday and three of them staging apprentice handicaps.

Thomas Greatrex is an interesting jockey to have riding in this, as he once rode a winner for my previous trainer, Pat Murphy, in a 3M chase round Kempton.
Report Trusty July 7, 2021 4:25 PM BST
Nice lay and win today AIS. Thanks.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 9, 2021 12:34 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

England go marching on and maybe it really is coming home.

Italy will be more formidable than the teams we’ve met in the competition so far but we are actually not a bad team and i think we can beat them at home. Having said that i will not be backing them to win outright (maybe a correct score fun bet) as i don’t want to tempt fate although i would be a layer of 0-0.

On to racing and one i feel can layed at Newmarket (2.25) is the unbeaten 2 year old filly Sandrine. She was an outsider @ 16/1 but won well LTO at Royal Ascot and had 3 of this afternoons field behind her that day although the going was soft and it will be good/firm this afternoon. I think Hello You ran far too freely and can gain her revenge. I laid earlier @ 3.30 and she’s not much bigger now.

One i think can be backed EW is another filly, Snow Lantern on the same card (3.35) currently trading at 7.2 (3TBP 2.72). I put this one up last time (14/1) and she ran well behind the likely favourite this afternoon in Alcohol Free who got first run. Another who was a little keen and she didn’t get a clear run, but was staying on strongly. Back on good ground i think she can run a good race but the negative is she is my nap selection in the daily competition.

Good luck and have a nice Friday all.

Trusty

Thank you.

I layed Rosa Mystica but left the winner unbacked even though i fancied it. He was a mega priced winner on debut but showed it wasn’t a fluke, running better than the form line suggested even though he was only 3rd of 4 LTO. Everything went wrong, keen, didn’t get a clear run, switched and was a bit green in the final ½ furlong. A pity about the drift on Rosa Mystica (7/4 at post time) but out of my control of course.

Alan

Thanks for the update and good luck at Ascot this evening.

Out of curiosity, what made you pick the colours (more Norwich than Spurs Wink)
Report east end boy July 9, 2021 1:05 PM BST
I was in the Blind Beggers on the Saturday night on a pub crawl prior to the Wednesday when Ronnie shot Conell.We ended up in an Indian. 15 of us did a runner without paying.Oh they were the days.
Report i_agree_with_nick July 9, 2021 1:13 PM BST
It must have been packed in there.  I reckon at least half of London black cab drivers were in the BB the night Ronnie Kray shot George Cornell.
Report i_agree_with_nick July 9, 2021 1:40 PM BST
EEB

The restaurant owner might have been paying protection to the Krays.  In any case, I hope you went back at some stage and paid up.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 9, 2021 3:42 PM BST
Snow Lantern Love
Report ashleigh July 9, 2021 3:46 PM BST
well done andrew.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 9, 2021 3:51 PM BST
Ashleigh

Thank you. She did it well and looks useful with a good turn of foot.

Losses on my lay of Sandrine recovered.

I backed @ 7.2 and 2.75, i'm just surprised a nap selection won Laugh
Report PHS July 9, 2021 3:55 PM BST
Nice winner AndrewCool
Report fred c dobs July 9, 2021 4:01 PM BST
Snow lantern,great shout AIS,we are not worthy
Report TheAnorak July 9, 2021 4:08 PM BST
Andrew,

Current colours are the reverse of my original set from 1980, when I had to arrange things from Kuwait. Not so easy in those days with a dodgy phone system, which was even dodgier for long distance calls. So I went for something outrageous hoping nobody else would already be using the combination of orange, green stripe, armlets and hooped cap - and oddly enough nobody else was.

This set with the green and orange the other way round and a plain cap is a bit more restrained. And they are pretty easy to spot during a race!

WD on the winner.
Report GLASGOWCALLING July 9, 2021 10:19 PM BST
Well done on the Winner Andrew, Shame the lay looked  a bit Special. Happy
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 10, 2021 8:42 AM BST
Good morning Guys

Thank you for the WD's, throw enough darts etc. Laugh 

I did fancy Snow Lantern (also backed her LTO) even making her my selection in the daily nap competition. Still a bit keen in her races and i feel there is more to come and could turn out to be as good as her dam. I doubt she will take up an entry in the Sussex but the Nassau at month end is likely (dam ran in it after her Falmonth defeat).

I didn't have a big bet but enough to make the weekend go better. I'm hoping to find other England ex-pats in München tomorrow to watch the game, Kennedys Irish sportsbar seems to be the place to be. Sadly there are no fan zones here due to covid restrictions and going back to Rome could end up in blood being spilt (mine Laugh).

Alan

Thank you for your colours explanation, they certainly stand out. I guess you were pleased with Love Dreams run yesterday, he wasn't beaten that far and at the furlong pole i thought he may even stay on for a place. Do you think the stiff mile was just a step too far ?

Glasgow

Thank you. I got Sandrine totally wrong although i was happy to take her on pre-race. She travelled well and i knew my fate as soon as she took the lead to be honest. She's probably the best 2 year old filly sprinter around and could be hard to beat in the Lowther. Hello You pulled hard but was clearly beaten by a better horse.

More later.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 10, 2021 10:56 AM BST
A zillion meetings and many with large fields this afternoon, but one runner i will be having a small interest in at decent odds is Chil Chil in the July Cup (4.25 Newmarket).

Do i think she can win ? Probably not. She has to improve and this is tougher than her win in a Group 3 on the AW LTO, but at current odds of 42 and markets of 4/5/6 TBP i feel she's worth a small stake, at least for the places.

She's really come to life as a 5 year old and could have been unbeaten this year with figures of 2-1-1 (the loss by a neck) and has CD form (1-2-1) winning well in her penultimate race. She showed a good turn of foot to win LTO with maybe a little more in hand than it looked at the time.

A field of 19 but an almost middle draw of 8 so Ron can pick a side (they will split). There's plenty of pace and if she's not too far back at the furlong pole she can weave her way through. Oxted will be doing the same and he has to be one of the likely winners but the mare is in with a small shout on a course she runs well on.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.
Report TheAnorak July 10, 2021 12:51 PM BST
Morning Andrew,

I think yesterday was more a case of being on the wrong part of the track - but not much the jockey could do given the draw. In these apprentice races, they get a lecture beforehand about the importance of keeping straight. But the stands rail runners dominated the last two races yesterday. He's OK, but unlikely to find much improvement at his age, so you need everything to go right to have any chance of winning. If he drops a pound or two for that, we might be able to drop down to a class 5 race, which would help.

I've been at the sales this week looking for the next one to wear the green and orange, but other buyers had deeper pockets. Take a look at the form of a 5-y-old called Cochise that I liked and valued at £16k. He sold yesterday for £42k!
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 11, 2021 10:59 AM BST
Good morning Guys,

Only the one selection yesterday and so much for my abysmal attempt at finding a lively outsider to place (Chil Chil) who eventually finished 9th/19 in the July Cup. Mind you at win odds of 42/1 successes are going to be few and far between.

Having said this she ran well enough, take the winner out and she wasn't beaten that far after drifting across the course. Made headway at the 2f pole and her last 3 furlong sectionals weren't bad, but she was simply beaten by better class horses. The race was a step up from the G3 she won last month and maybe the Stewards Cup later in the month is a more winnable target. A mark of 110 will be high enough and it's unlikely she will be apprentice ridden, but she will certainly be able to come off a fast pace there.

On a good day of racing it was surprising (and sad) to read that Galileo had to be put down due to chronic injury. Not one of the greats on the track, but sire of possibly the greatest, and without question sire of sires with 93 G1 winners. Within the next few years he will surpass 100, a record i doubt will ever be broken. RIP.

A fair bit of UK/Irish interest on a good card at Deauville this afternoon albeit nothing that really stands out although i thought the Andre Fabre trained Midtown was interesting in the G1 Prix Jean Prat. Unbeaten in a couple of runs as a 2 year old and the expected soft going will not be an issue but high st odds of 9/2 are not exactly tempting.

Closer to home i feel the likely favourite Tartan Chief (Salisbury 2.25) is a lay @ 3.30, albeit with a risk. Ran well enough on debut to be 3rd of 11, but it was on a flat track and good/firm going. Different track, ground the opposite, stable out of form and there's enough unknown quantity with at least 4 runners on the side of layers.

Most eyes will be focused on Wembley this evening but i may have to watch the game amongst jealous Bavarian locals who will almost certainly be rooting for Italy. Hopefully the aerospace and car industry English ex-pats in the state descend on the city centre for moral support (i suspect there will be many).

I really think England can win (and in normal time) we may not be playing sexy football but we're a better team than many give us credit for. I'm not backing them outright and don't need to having succesfully bet the 'name the finalists' (after Italy beat Turkey) but i've had a fiver on 3-1, AOHW and Harry Macquire for first goal, all at silly odds. 

Alan

I checked out Cochise, agreed a crazy price. You obviously felt there was something in him that was worth forking out 16K but what did Nick see that made him go to 2 1/2 times as much. I guess he's going to his fathers yard.

If you had bought him, would you have kept him to the flat or both codes ? Never mind, there are several Goffs sale next month. Wink

Looking at the other lots, for almost the same price (40K) i would probably have gone for the ex-Shadwell, 3 year old filly Algheed, a lightly raced, reasonably well bred maiden (beaten in two photos finishes). Rated 77 and the form of her 2nd race is working out well enough.

I noticed one of your ex's is running at Stratford later, but probably has it to do.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
Report snowynoon July 11, 2021 12:03 PM BST
AOHW?? Youve lost me there Andrew.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 11, 2021 12:06 PM BST
Snowymoon

AOHW = any other home win, as defiend in the correct score market on here..

Currently 60 but only a fun bet.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 11, 2021 12:06 PM BST
# defined
Report snowynoon July 11, 2021 12:31 PM BST
I thought Italy were the official home team ?? anyway ,good luck .
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 11, 2021 12:36 PM BST
Snowymoon

I just checked and i think you are correct, i think i'm losing it.

Thanks, i will amend the 2 bets.
Report STATSMAN July 11, 2021 1:00 PM BST
So England are playing at Wembley aren't the home team?

So Italy are?

Come off it! Laugh
Report snowynoon July 11, 2021 1:14 PM BST
Yes,Italy are the home team and get first choice of kit ,and various other things ,but cant find the actual reason why this is so ,anyway a mere technicality as we all know ,will make no difference to anything.
Report STATSMAN July 11, 2021 1:14 PM BST
Laugh
Report jumper3 July 11, 2021 3:20 PM BST
Yes, on the basis of the draw, Italy as winners of the first semi final, are deemed the home team.
Report STATSMAN July 11, 2021 3:32 PM BST
^ That's wrong ^

Only for bets, is that sort of correct.

It's where England usually play their home home.
Italy's home is Rome, that's where they they usually play their home games.

55,000 England fans at Wembley, away team. Italy will have 5,000 fans at home

Laugh
Report STATSMAN July 11, 2021 4:13 PM BST
Andrew, Well done with Tartan Chief
Report TheAnorak July 11, 2021 4:15 PM BST
Afternoon Andrew,

Punters seem to keep seeing promise in Hurricane Arcadio for reasons that escape me and on that showing, I suppose I'm the one that's got it right. He's evidence that dropping in the handicap makes no difference if you can't jump cleanly.

As for Cochise, he'd have stayed on the flat for me. There are three valuable staying races in August - a £30k 0-85 2M at Haydock, a £22k 0-90 2M at Nottingham and a £40k 0-85 1M 6F at Sandown, one or more of which would have been ideal for him. The 0-85 races are part of the Sunday Series, meetings to be shown on ITV, designed to attract the parts of racing that other big money races don't reach. He's also qualified for the final of a Jockey Club series, which is over 1M 6F at Nottingham on Sept 29th. If he'd made a show in those races, I'd then have sent him back to the sales for somebody else to go hurdling with him.

It's part of my anorak tendency, that I never try to buy a horse without having a plan for exactly where he can run. Of course, in the case of Love Dreams, no plan survived Covid/Lockdown.
Report GEORGE.B July 11, 2021 6:33 PM BST
Anorak, was the 554 day break that Cochise had factored into your valuation?
Presumably the horse had some issue(s)?

By the way, remember you saying on another thread a while back about how you had valued Sea Art at around ? £10K, but someone went a bit higher. I think you came out the right side of that one!
Report TheAnorak July 11, 2021 7:03 PM BST
George,

We were told that the break was due to the owner declining to run the horse last summer during the Covid restrictions on owners attending the course. He did run two horses, once each, in 2020, but only in the run up to a potential sale to show buyers they were OK. Cochise is a lovely looking, big horse and his trainer felt the year off had improved him, but for all that, he's a 75 rated 5-y-old gelding and how many horses of that age off the flat develop into good hurdlers or go much higher on the flat. I suspect the actual buyer has much the same plan as me for the August races.

Yes, Sea Art we did well to miss and you could say the same about Tara Iti, that I bid for up to £10k in that online sale when Gary Moore bought him.
Report GEORGE.B July 11, 2021 7:16 PM BST
Thanks for explaining that, Anorak. To be fair, the horse has withstood four relatively quick runs since returning.

Tara Itl came up on my juvenile hurdle thread the other day when it was pointed out to me that he had burst a blood vessel, and that would excuse the poor run on his hurdles debut.

I suppose the query about him is, being by Sixties Icon, whether he just needs the soft / heavy ground that he had when winning at Leicester. So suppose he could still turn out to be a good buy when getting his ground.
Report Lucky Luciano July 16, 2021 12:02 PM BST
Hi Andrew
Whatsup with this weather it’s going crazy.

Hopefully you are nowhere near where the flooding is taking place.(don’t think you are) Devastating and catastrophic doesn’t even cut it.
Very warm and blue sky here today and getting hotter 30 degrees over the weekend.
Going Stratford Sunday for a few days and will be taking in the races Happy never been before, but going with friends so just a fun day out
Cheers
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 18, 2021 1:10 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

A manic week at work and i've hardly had any time for horse racing even working most of yesterday.

I missed the sublime win by Snowfall in the Irish Oaks (seen the VR since) and although she probably didn't beat much looks the real deal and a valid Arc candidate unlike her stablemate Love who is ground dependant.

Is she better than Hurricane Lane or Adayar et all ? I'm open minded and her next race appears to be the Yorkshire Oaks so we will not know how her form stands up against the colts as she's only ever raced against her own sex to date.

I very much doubt she will meet Love at York but could come up against the year older Wonderful Tonight so a decent yardstick,

I did have a stroke of luck last night laying (small stake) Aerion Power at Doncaster; most will know the jockey eased up thinking he had won by mistaking the winning post and many will have realised it at the time. Without question a gross error of judgement and this will be an Albatros around the neck of Mark Crehan for some time to come, but he is not the first to make a similar mistake and this is what it was ........ a mistake. He has to serve his ban and learn from it, but he doesn't desrve to be ostracised.

On to this afternoon, run of the mill cards in UK but group races in Ireland and France provide better quality and i think there is a lay (risky) and a back in Victor Ludorum (Chantilly 1.33) and Atomic Force (Chantilly 2.50) respectively.

Victor Ludorum carried quite a reputation in earlier days and although genuine i don't feel he's the horse he once was. The last couple of group races he contested were not exactly top quality and whilst he's down in class this afternoon it's an open field with only 8 lb separating them on RPR. I think he can be layed (small) but he is the class horse in the field.

Atomic Force was impressive here LTO and looks high on the 2 year old sprinting division list. It's difficult to know how good the French colts are but it will certainly take a decent one to beat him. I was surprised to see he had been matched as high as 2.30 (currently 1.96) and i will be backing him.

Statsman

Thank you, a pity about the drift.

Alan/George

Many thanks for the discussion posts, interesting and always appreciated. Apologies i haven't had chance to respond so far.

Lucky

I used to be in Pasing (west München) but we moved a little further out last year, now i'm in a small lakeside town about 30 mins drive from the city. A lovely location with distant views of the alps in the background.

Correct, nowhere near the flooded areas of NW Germany, it's a disaster zone up there and the last i read 170 had lost their lives. It puts everything into perspective when complaining about the weather. We've had a fair bit of rain here recently, but nothing in comparison.

Have a great day out at Stratford (i've been to the town, but not the race-course).

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
Report tanglefoot July 18, 2021 1:50 PM BST
Oh dear,a risky lay.Sad
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 18, 2021 1:57 PM BST
Tanglefoot

Yes, raced much closer to ther pace than recently and won comfortably in the end. Class told and it was a risk as i stated, but i was prepared to take it on small (30 @ 2.64). C'est la vie. Hopefully Atomic Force wins.
Report tanglefoot July 18, 2021 2:13 PM BST
Atomic Force looks a good one.
Report second again July 18, 2021 3:01 PM BST
Well done with the back Andrew.
Report second again July 18, 2021 3:01 PM BST
Well done with the back Andrew.
Report ashleigh July 18, 2021 3:08 PM BST
well done andrew, managed to get some ev on atomic force, he looks smart.Happy
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 18, 2021 3:23 PM BST
Thanks Guys.

Agreed, very smart and not bad for £22,000 at the Doncaster yearling sales. Rated 111 before today. May prefer a bit of juice in the ground, but did win at Hamilton on good (albeit a minor race.

No idea where he goes next (gelded).

I really thought he was a bet at a tad under evens (NR and 11% RF later) and wasnt surprised he was well backed, even allowing for a less than full understanding of the French runners.
Report TheAnorak July 20, 2021 9:11 AM BST
Morning All,

One of the horses in the stable I support has had a few mentions on this thread and Fard runs today at Ffos Las, 5:15. Fwiw, after Oisin Murphy rode him at Chepstow last time, he got off and said 'Drop him back to 5F and I'll ride him and he'll win'.

The 3-y-old Morty, trained by O'Meara looks the big danger. The Post comment on him describes him as a 'low mileage 3yo', which seems a bit debateable, given he's making a 600 mile round trip from North Yorkshire!

As for Atomic Force, his only options this year will be Group 2 races. He isn't entered for the Gimcrack, but could be supplemented for £6,500. Later on he could run in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster, or the Mill Reef at Newbury. In all of those he'd have a 3lb penalty for the French win. If he was mine I'd ship him out to the USA and ask Wesley Ward to train him.
Report The Management July 20, 2021 12:20 PM BST
Good Luck with Fard today Alan and thanks for the insight - I have been watching his races with interest for a while now because I'm a bit of a "sprint nut", a "draw nut" and also I have an unhealthy fascination with horses that respond (or don't) to "headgear".

I actually thought he was maybe a bit flattered by the draw LTO at Chepstow (it seems the low drawn horses had no chance) - but it does seem that front running in blinkers has given him a new lease of life - ever since he won from the front in blinkers at Wolves (from an impossible looking draw of his own). The early part of that race was a bit strange (imo) - but a cracking ride.

I wondered if you might have a go with him at 5 furlongs (now that he is a front runner!) after his race at Windsor (the one where he was 2nd from a good draw) and then thought the same again after his most recent Windsor race (the one where he came right across from a crappy draw), so I'm delighted to see you giving him a try at 5 furlongs today and fascinated to see how he runs (from a tactical/running style perspective). Good luck.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 20, 2021 5:24 PM BST
Evening Alan,

Many thanks for the Fard post, i saw it about 30 minutes ago. I didn't back Fard (stayed on well after a slow break) but a small lay on Marty instead and watched the BF/LV. My only bet today.

More later (still in the office Sad).
Report The Management July 20, 2021 5:57 PM BST
Like all sprints (imo) - a fascinating watch - I'm none the wiser as to what were the intended tactics - but I am pretty sure that didn't go to plan!

I've only watched it the once (in real time) so I'm not 100% sure if it was the horse, OM or the LW trained horse in the stall next door that blew his chance from the start - but he has run a cracking race under the circumstances and at least it's pretty clear now that 5f is an option (imo).
Report TheAnorak July 20, 2021 6:50 PM BST
TM,

The trainer is furious - the jockey was given very clear instructions to gently remove the hood BEFORE the last horse went into the stalls. We know that if you yank the hood off as the stalls open, the horse will rear up, which is exactly what happened this afternoon. Interestingly, it was Marco Ghiani who came up with that idea and used it the day he won on the horse. He reckoned that if you took the hood off slowly, the horse wouldn't be frightened as he seemed to be by the sudden removal.
Report doorman99 July 20, 2021 6:54 PM BST
Marco next time then Anorak.
Report The Management July 20, 2021 7:07 PM BST
That's annoying then Alan (that he reared-up), I wasn't sure (watching only once in real time) if he reared or just missed it slightly or got a slight bump, so thanks for the update. In addition to bu66ering up the start OM totally bu66ered up the price as well by winning four of the earlier races! - at least it looks like he was right about 5 furlongs though - any kind of start and he was surely the winner (imo) Cry
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 21, 2021 8:03 AM BST
Good sunny morning Guys,

Alan/TM/Doorman

Thank you for the posts, i missed the 08.11 one initially, but noticed it late afternoon, hence the small lay of the joint favourite Morty based on your Fard thoughts (thanks).

Oisin certainly removed the hood quick enough from Fard, Tommy Cooper would have been proud of him. He stayed on really well from way off the pace and is probably a winner without a penalty although this is scant consolation for connections. As Doorman pointed out, maybe Marco will be back on next time.

As for Atomic Force, i noticed Timeform have him on 112, the best 2 year old seen to date. To put this into some sort of perspective, one my favourite sprinters Lyric Fantasy was rated 113 after her Nunthorpe win.
Alan, i guess he could also run in the Nunthorpe ?

Wesley certainly knows how to train sprinters, but the horse was sold after the first Chantilly win to Siu Pak Kwan (high profile owner in Hong Kong) so maybe we won’t see him as a 3 year old. I couldn’t see he had other horses in UK.

Good luck and have a nice Wednesday all.
Report TheAnorak July 21, 2021 10:27 AM BST
Morning Andrew,

Entries for the Nunthorpe closed on June 22nd and he isn't among them. A supplementary entry on Aug 14th would cost £16,500 - fourth prize is £13,400, so a sizeable each way gamble.

The owner does have plenty of other horses here, mostly with Ed Walker, but they run under the name P K Siu. Stormy Antarctic is the best of them, along with the grey 3yo Came From The Dark, who won the Gp3 sprint on Eclipse day.

We'd always be pleased to have Marco, but now he's winning Listed races for Godolphin, he's moved on and good luck to him.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 23, 2021 1:35 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

Finally some Andrew time after a recent hectic period (work) at least enough to suggest a possible risky/shortie lay this afternoon.

Indigo Girl in the G3 Valiant Stakes (Ascot 3.00) currently trading around 11/8 that i consider plenty short enough. Well-bred and clearly a half-decent filly, but hasn’t raced for over 9 months. Her debut novice stakes win was average at best although she improved to win the G2 Horris Hill next time out. Both wins were on a flat course. She ran well enough to finish runner-up behind Pretty Gorgeous in the Newmarket fillies mile LTO (with a few of Horris Hill runners behind her) although the winner hasn’t franked the form. Mother Earth was 3rd in the race and although that form reads well, the latter is a different filly as a  3 year old.

Track, going and lengthy lay-off are unknown to varying degrees, it’s not a bad field and the Michael Stoute filly Lights Out certainly looks progressive although it’s not a 2 horse race by any means. I think she will be held up at the back with Frankie looking to get closer after the bend (stays well) but i think a couple of these will be too good to her, at least this afternoon. I layed earlier @ 2.78 albeit aware of the risk.

As for the jockey, he doesn't ride Ascot well Wink

Good luck and have a nice Friday all.

Alan

Many thanks for the Nunthorpe information, i also noticed Atomic Force wasn’t entered, but you have a better knowledge than me of supplementary entry conditions. Whether he’s good enough is a different manner, but the WFA is a significant advantage and 5f on a flat track could suit.

I didn’t associate Stormy Antarctic with the same owner, but as you stated, a different format of using his name.
Report second again July 23, 2021 1:41 PM BST
I hope you are right Andrew as I have backed Lights On at 7/2.
Report TheAnorak July 23, 2021 2:03 PM BST
Andrew,

You can find all the pattern race info here and download it:

https://support.racingadmin.co.uk/opencms/export/sites/weatherbys/Downloads/British-Flat-Pattern-and-Listed-Races-2021.pdf

And apologies for being pedantic, but I'm reading Horris Hill and I know you meant May Hill.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 23, 2021 2:16 PM BST
Second Again

Lights On is my nap in the daily nap comp, so i apologise in advance Laugh

Good luck to us both.

Alan

Many thanks for the download link, i will certainly review it this evening.

With the week i've had and my head all over the place, i wouldn't know the difference between Horris Hill and Benny Hill Wink
Report TheAnorak July 23, 2021 2:38 PM BST
Horris Hill is a climb on the old pre bypass A34, just to the south of Newbury. There's a famous Horris Hill Preparatory school, which prepares the offspring of the First Battalion, Berkshire Chinless, for the delights of Marlborough, Winchester and Radley.
Report PHS July 23, 2021 3:09 PM BST
WD AndrewHappy
Report The Dragon July 23, 2021 3:10 PM BST
nice call andrew followed you in on that one.. beers on me- virtual unfortunatleyWink
Report TheAnorak July 23, 2021 3:23 PM BST
WD Andrew - I took part as well once I'd seen her on screen. She doesn't look to have grown at all since her last run.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 24, 2021 9:14 AM BST
Good morning Guys from a stormy West of München.

There goes my plan for lunch and a couple of hours by the lake watching ITV racing.

A decent Ascot card this afternoon with the KG VI and QE stakes (3.35) a race steeped in tradition with a roll call of 'greats' amongst the winners, think Nijinsky, Mill Reef and Brigadier Gerard in consecutive years back in time just to name a few. As a young punter i was used to the Epsom Derby winner meeting his elders for the first time in this race (many of them winning it) but these days this is not the case as some take in the Eclipse. Most will know Galileo was the last one to do the double 20 years ago, nevertheless a race we all look foward to.

It's a decent field, but the race could ultimately be decided by the weather. Love aside, most of the field (if not all) will welcome the forecasted rain (assuming it arrives) if only to take the sting out of the going although the other filly Wonderful Tonight would be happy with it hock deep. Unless there are torrential downpours i suspect Love will take her chance but irrespective of rain i think she can be taken on anyway, albeit a risky lay of course.

Love is clearly a very good filly but i've stated before i'm not convinced she's a superstar (at least not yet) and the quality of her filly race form can certainly be questioned. She came up against the colts for the first time in the Prince Of Wales stakes LTO where she was more workmanlike than impressive (a good ride from RM) and will come on for that, but may have to. There's only 5lb between them on BHA ratings and this is endorsed by RPR with only 6 lb.

The pace should be decent with Long Eagle and Broome taking them along and Love leading the rest until the real race starts in the straight. If you asked me who is going to win my response would be perm any 1 from 6, i really feel this is much more open than the odds may suggest, even the outsider Broome is not out of it. If a gun was put to my head i would plump for Mishriff, a horse i like with a good turn of foot.

I've already layed Love (on Thursday) and at much lower odds than she currently is. I'm surprised at manner of the drift, but is it all weather related.

Another potential lay on the same card is Camelot Tales (4.10). He won well enough albeit in a bunch finish LTO (first 4 covered by a length) and the handicapper wasn't overly impressed only raising him a couple of lb. Another 2 furlongs to travel this afternoon and both wins have come on summer going (this may not be an issue) and on left handed tracks. Lighty raced and may improve of course, but i looked at this race last night and thought this was another race that was more open than the odds suggested.

In the 'close your eyes and use a pin' handicap or should i say The International (3.00) Matthew Flinders should run well off a good mark (10 lb well in) but i thought Star Of Orion was an EW bet at double figure odds (10.0) with a 4TBP market as well. He's only one of a couple of 3 year olds in the field but this age group have a reasonable winning strike rate (4 of the last 7 with 7 this century) and off a mark of 97 could go well. A 3 lb penalty for winning LTO could be leniant and is offset by the 5 lb apprentice anyway. The draw often plays a part in these big field handicaps but this is part of racing punters have to deal with.

In other racing news it's certainly not jockey Mark Crehans week, receiving a ban after mistaking the winning post (finishing 2nd on Aerion Power at Doncaster) and then falling from his mount whilst riding out for George Boughey that required a hospital visit with a suspected broken collar bone. Thankfully no break, just a 28 day one, albeit several sore days ahead i guess.

In the breeding sheds, Pinatubo, one of the best 2 years of recent times (rated higher than Frankel at the same stage) will not be taking up stud duties in Australia due to an eye infection so we have to wait another season to see his first offspring.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.

Alan, PHS, The Dragon

Thank you for the Indigo Girl WD's, good to know a few were on.

She was a bit keen early (settled better after a few furlongs) but looked a bit one paced in the straight when the front few quickened, simply staying on past beaten fillies. She was racing after a long lay off and may have needed it, but it may well transpire that's as good as she is.

Her form line in the Newmarket Fillies mile last year reads well with Snowfall and Mother Earth behind her, but both those have improved significantly as 3 year olds.Taking these out, the overall form is patchy at best and she was beaten over 7L by a filly rated 16 lb below her yesterday. Time will tell.

Virtual beer accepted and as for Horris Hill, i always thought he was probably a historical figure, this thread should be part of the UK education system curriculum. Laugh
Report Lampus July 24, 2021 9:30 AM BST
Good  morning  ANDREW

Good Luck   and Thank You  Happy
Report PHS July 24, 2021 11:49 AM BST
Thanks for that excellent Sat summary Andrew.
Report Lucky Luciano July 24, 2021 4:25 PM BST
Afternoon Andrew
Thanks for the write up earlier, hopefully you made a good few quid today
Layed Camelot tales but only lessened the losses on Adayar Sad underestimated him but all credit won very well
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 25, 2021 1:07 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

After the Lord Mayors show at Ascot yesterday racing reverts to a typical Sunday afternoon although there is a listed class at Pontefract and the Uttoxeter NH card isn't too bad.

I noticed Ryan Moore is travelling northward for a sole ride on the Michael Stoute trained Regal Reality in the listed race (Pontefract 4.10) his only runner and each has a day off tomorrow. It may be a tip in itself although Ryan doesn't really appear to have a strong following on the forum and it's not one i would want to be lumping on anyway.

I had considered going to the eastern part of München for the G1 Bayerisches Zuchtrennen (1.20) this afternoon a race where UK/Irish jockeys have a good record (won by Barney Roy last year) although i'm not even sure if it's open to the public. All local runners bar one, the favourite Skaletti who should win although the odds are restrictive. No betting market on here but Ze Turf may have a market.

A profitable post yesterday with both lays beaten (13/8f and 7/4f) and the EW selection (15/2) beaten a short head.

As mentioned yesterday i've always thought Love was more hype than substance, good filly that she obviously is and you don't win a couple of classic being slow. Having said that this was her first true test against elders/colts (the POW form being devalued by Armoury) and she didn't look a superstar by any means. Mishriff may have hemmed her in temporarily after the bend but this didn't change the result, the front two were simply much better than her on the day. She ran well enough but whether she's good enough to win an all sex G1 remains to be seen (good enough to be entered it has to be said) and i can't see her even running in the Arc.

As for the winner Adayar Charlie Appleby must think 2021 is Christams day lasting a year such are the riches in his stable at the moment and he's got some planning to do over the next few weeks with where to enter them. The immediate reaction by viewers post race was we had seen the Arc winner, but i wouldn't be rushing in to back him just yet, it looks a very good race this year and is Adayar better than Hurricane Lane anyway.

My other lay Cameron Tales finished 3rd and although i benefitted financially it was disappointing that i had spent time typing out the reasoning for a P/L lay (and sent to another poster) but the 2nd NR swayed my decision to post it. I was OK with the first NR, but the next made it very risky. C'est la vie.

Star Orion my EW selection was beaten a short head in the International stakes that was unfortunate on 2 counts as i only backed it to win (odds of 11.0) and it was also my nap in the daily comp. Sad

On to this afternoon and after reviewing the cards there wasn't anything at all, backing or laying that really jumped off the page. I thought Rising Star was maybe worth a small bet in the 5.45 Musselburgh, she's run well with a couple of places this season including 3rd over CD and runner-up in a better race at Newmarket over a furlong shorter. Odds of 2.50 look fair.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

Lucky

Thanks, yes it was a good day financially, specially with the lay of Love.

WD laying Camelot Tales, at least some losses returned for you. Good luck today.
Report Macintoshmatty July 25, 2021 11:40 PM BST
well done with your weekend picks Andrew
Short-headed for a full house!
Report The Dragon July 26, 2021 9:37 PM BST
yes always lookforward to your well thought out analysis-- great stuffCool
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 28, 2021 2:45 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

Not so much free time but as it’s the Sussex stakes later, here are my thoughts on the race.

Poetic Flame is unquestionably the rightful favourite and has a lot going for him, a classic winner (almost dual) as well as the SJP and 3 year olds have won this race 13 times in the last 20 (favourites also have a good record) but is he a good thing ?. Not for me, at least at 11/8. Although the soft going shouldn’t be an inconvenience, he’s better on summer ground and showed this LTO (had the run of the race on the rail). He’s also a horse that appears to need a lot of racing, 5 races in a couple of months was testament to this, but he’s been off the track for over 6 weeks.

Regular readers will know i’m a fan of the filly Snow Lantern having put her up a few times including when she won LTO, but sentiment shouldn’t paly a part in betting. Having said this, i think she can win again assuming her new jockey (Sean is suspended) can get her to settle in mid-field early as she tends to run a bit keenly. She won the Falmouth really well after meeting trouble and was value for more than the official 0.5L margin. The going will not be an issue, she’s lightly raced and whilst she needs to improve, this is possible of course. I suspect that Order Of Australia will front run and make it a decent pace and if so, this will suit her ru nning style (smart turn of foot).

Fillies rarely run in the Sussex, the last winner was Soviet Song (2004) and i thought she would take up an original entry in the Nassau (2f longer) but trainer Richard Hannon obviously feels she's up to the task. I was impressed with her last run and think she could be decent, so i have to stay with her this afternoon.

At odds of 9/2 i think she’s worth a small a bet at least and i have also layed Poetic Flame to cover the stake, although i have to concede the latter is a risky bet. I may get it horribly wrong and the fav hoses up, but i have my doubts.

Macintoshmatty/The Dragon

Thank you for the nice comments, much appreciated.

Good luck and have a nice Wednesday all.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 28, 2021 3:50 PM BST
Got the lay of Poetic Flame right, but a disappointing ride on my fancy Snow Lantern although whether she would have won with Sean on is debatable.
Report punchestown July 28, 2021 4:29 PM BST
Thought Spencer overdid it in behind as usual but think the winner had all their numbers today.The ground a huge factor today.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 31, 2021 10:27 AM BST
Good morning Guys,

Looking at this afternoons meetings it apears to be an ordinary Saturday, even the last day at Goodwood card isn't that inspiring and from a total of 42 races in UK /Ireland, 31 of them are handicaps (74%).

There are not many races i thought i would play in but here are my thoughts.

The JG trained and likely favourite Ubahha appealed as a lay selection (Doncaster 4.37) at current odds of 3.25. Well bred and lightly raced but his best runs have come on good to firm. Ran well enough on debut (form is franked) but hasn't really progressed as you would expect. Handicap debut today and although a mark of 72 is probably about right he may need to improve on this to win. A tight handicap of 9 runners and take out the lowest rated, there's only 4 lb between the field.

The Goodwood spint races are as difficut as always to solve but i thought the recent very consistant Music Society was worth a small EW bet (4TBP) in the Stewards Consolation (1.55). Ran in this race last year but never got into it and is running better now, his last couple of runs (beaten in photos) in half decent sprints are testament to this. A low draw is a bonus and off a lowly mark of 82 i feel he could run well.

If there is a good thing (at odds against) then Jordan Electrics (Hamilton 6.20) may be the one to be on. Won well earlier in the week at Ayr (ignore Timeform who state CD) and carries a 5lb penalty as a result (jockey takes off 3lb). Up in class but it doesn't look a particularly strong field. Stable in good form and i think he will win again, 6/4 is fair.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.

Punchestown

I agree on both counts. I rarely criticize jockeys, its pointless, we all know how good they are before placing a bet and Sean wouldn't have won on it. I doubt Snow Lantern can beat the winner over 8f on soft in future, but she could be a long shot for the International if she takes that route.

Lucky Luciano

I've booked a ticket for Longchamp Arc Trials on September 12th, a special price of only 15 euros for a day of group races (i'm on the France Gallop mailing list). Looks a bargain as apparently a seat is included although i'm not too bothered with this. Hopefully Adayar runs in the Prix Neil (expected) and wins to pay for the weekend. No flight booked yet, but they are cheap enough from here.

Article    Détails    Quantity   
QATAR ARC TRIALS 2021
Hippodrome Parislongchamp, PARIS 16EME ARRONDISSEMENT
12/09/2021

Positioning    Category    Rate
Placement libre    WINNING POST STAND    Prevente
1    15,00€
Delivery charges : Eticket (0)        0,00€
TOTAL    15,00€
Report Lucky Luciano July 31, 2021 11:56 AM BST
Afternoon Andrew

€15 is unbelievable to watch some quality horses.
Going Salisbury for that weekend and taking in the races on the Friday evening and paying £20 Crazy

btw still got my Arc tickets from last year and have flights booked out of Gatwick Sunday morning so fingers crossed this time.

[Ticket #9087] (07/29/2021)

Product    Price
Friday 10th September - Summer Evening Racing
Ticket Type:
Ticket Options
Grandstand Enclosure (£40.00):
2
Adult Name 1:
Adult Name 2:
£40.00
Agree with the fare on offer today and one of only a few races I’m interested in watching is the Lillie Langtry,  will the going be soft enough for the jolly who should be good enough and proven over distance. Buick is on fire but will wait til race time anyway
Have a good day
Report PHS July 31, 2021 2:40 PM BST
WD with the placer Andrew. He was going as well as anything 2f out, just beaten by those racing on Good to Soft on the rail while he had to race on Soft up the middle.
Report Lucky Luciano July 31, 2021 5:11 PM BST
Good call with Ubahha, want 2 something in running, fail to see why.
Chose right with wonderful today Happy although late drift had me worried but getting a nice lead was just what she wanted
Report fred c dobs July 31, 2021 6:25 PM BST
Thanks Andrew.you certainly are the Man.Fred
Report GEORGE.B August 1, 2021 11:20 AM BST
I hope Lampus is OK, it's not like him to miss the big meeting comp, and I see he hasn't posted in the naps league since the 24th.

He could just be on holiday, it is that time of year after all.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden August 1, 2021 11:57 AM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

Thanks for the comments, much appreciated.

Typical Sunday afternoon cards on both sides of the Irish sea today, although Chester looks interesting and for additional quality there's the German Oaks at Dusseldorf and a trio of listed races at Clairefontaine (South West of Paris).

I wouldn't have a clue about the fillies classic but there is GB interest in France with Tom Ward and David Simcock sending a few runners over albeit all with local jockeys. They may not return exactly empty handed, but i can't see a winner from them, in fact i thought Oriental Mystique (2.50) the likely favourite was layable. I actually put her up as a lay selection a couple of months ago (finished 3rd at Haydock-7/4f) and she hasn't changed my opinion in 2 subsequent races since. I don't feel the envisaged soft going will be in her favour either.

Over at Galway, the only one that caught my attention (minimally) was Rosscarbery (3.50) a filly who has been running well enough recently and could finally lose her maiden tag although i wouldn't want to be lumping on. She's been staying on well over slightly shorter trips and this sharp track shouldn't be an issue. Odds of 7/4 are about right for a small stake although the draw could have been better.

I didn't really fancy anything in GB.

A profitable post yesterday with all 3 selections paying out.

Music Society (4th 15/2) ran well, better than the finishing position may appear and went to a low of 2.4 IR. A little slowly away (probably intended) he was kept wide from the 2 stall and moved up to challenge, travelling well at the 2f pole but those on the rail had a distinct advantage (first 3 home drawn 17,13 and 12). In previous days at the meeting low numbers had done OK, but the rain had an impact (a similar story in the Stewards cup). He was well backed (double figure odds early) and Cam sounded optimistic in the pre-race interview, you sensed the stable fancied it. He had been running well before yesterday, beaten in a couple of close photo finishes so he certainly deserves a win.

Ubahha, the lay selection (5/2f) was unplaced (6th) and the banker, Jordan Electronics won (1/2f). The latter was very well backed, 2.52 when i posted and even after the NR there was plenty of 2.2.

Lucky

WD with Wonderful Surprise, the SP certainly was. She ran well considering how she pulled hard early and the trip was far enough on the going. I suspect she goes to Longchamp next for the Prix VermeIlle in September (same weekend i go) and if she wins there will certainly be going to the Arc with a decent shout. It's building up to be a very good race this year.

Anyone know what the Willie Carson involvement is, racing manager or advisor to Chris Wright maybe, not that he has anything of note other than yesterdays winner. 

I haven't got my Arc tickets yet, but will be making arrangements soon, i go most years anyway.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden August 1, 2021 12:00 PM BST
George

I also haven't seen Lampus post in a while, he occasionally looks in on here.

Likewise, i hope hes OK. He lives in Cornwall so doesn't need to go on holiday. Wink
Report TheAnorak August 1, 2021 12:15 PM BST
Morning Andrew,

The problem for Music Society is that his current mark is 8lbs higher than the one he ran off yesterday, where he had the mark that applied when the weights were published for the Stewards Cup, back in June.

Chris Wright and Willie Carson are near neighbours - both own studs in the same area in the Cotswolds.
Report Cork Langer August 1, 2021 12:25 PM BST
Morning AIS, the link between CW & WC is that they have co-owned a number of horses since 2011, starting with Chriselliam who won the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf in 2013, they have of course been acquaintances since Willie's riding days and both are involved in the breeding side of things.
Report The Dragon August 1, 2021 1:09 PM BST
VWD on yesterdays well thought out selections . Great stuff and much appreciatedCool
Report Andrew.in.Sweden August 2, 2021 9:45 AM BST
Good morning Guys,

A poor post from yours truly yesterday, the first horse won and the other lost but it was meant to be the other way around (lay and back respectively).

The day didn’t get off to a good start with Oriental Mystique winning in France (21/10f) getting up in the final strides. To be fair it was a good ride on the rail by Mickael Barzalona although it would have been a different story if the runner-up had stayed on the same rail closing the gap. That's racing.

The filly i thought could win (albeit to a small stake as suggested) Rosscarbery (11/10f) at Galway was beaten into 3rd, the well backed winner (7/4) turning around over a 7L beating LTO and winning easily to be honest. Rounding the bend Rosscarbery looked to be going well enough but didn’t find much in the straight and faded in the final furling. I appreciate it was a 3+ year old fillies maiden race (not the best betting type of race) but she had run well in previous outings. She was simply not good enough. It may well be she didn't stay the extra distance.

A loss on the day and a pity as my recent form had been good but as we say in engineering ‘back to the drawing board’.

The Dragon

Thank you.

Alan/Cork

Thank you for the Chris Wright/Willie Carson information. I remember Chriselliam, but wasn’t aware Willie was a part-owner or the stud farm connection. I may have had a losing day but i learnt something as compensation. Wink

Good luck and have a nice Monday all.
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