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Andrews 2021 Lay Thread
Andrews 2021 Lay Thread
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Looked in trouble but ran on well.
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Ashleigh/Hologon
A close finish, in fact the 5 were separated by neck, nose, neck and neck on the line, but the lay selection won so it might just as well have been 10L. Verne Castle led as expected, setting a decent pace and in the home straight i thought he may hold on but the pack was running on strongly and unfortunately for layers the fav stayed on the better of the field, albeit only just.  |
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Missed that
 (swings & roundabouts, miss some winners, miss some losers). |
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PHS
I wish i had missed it.  Due to covid issues at the DLR i was working remote (home office) today so it gave me more time to review the RP. I had already layed Fighter Allen in Ireland so losses on the lay selection were reduced, but it's still annoying as i don't like losing on the thread P/L. Maybe it was karma, reading the RP when i should have been working.  |
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Would be interesting to know what the figures would be if you just did all of them. Must be a right pain putting a succesful unoffical lay up followed by an unsuccesful official. Couldn't be doing with that if it was me doing them.
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Obv, DLR is not Docklands Light Railway
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PHS
When i startred the lay threads back in 2018 i deliberately set out some basic rules, one of them was only a single selection in any one day. If the selection wins, so be it, no chasing to try and rescue the loss. I've had some good runs, the best being 14 straight, but laying at 5/2 or under is a risk and of course i'm going to hit winners over the year, today was such a day. I actually sent a whatsapp message to the poster bitbybit stating i had laid Fighter Allen, but wasn't sure if i was going to post it. C'est la vie. As for DLR, correct. It's actually Deutsches Zentrum für Luft und Raumfahrt (German Aerospace and Space Centre) situated west of München. |
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Good morning Guys,
No time for rewiewing the RP this morning (busy) but i noticed the Navan card is the same as the abandoned one from last weekend. This was the venue of my Saturday Banker selection, so to reiterate my post (with amended time) : Navan 12.20 Riviere D'etel Yet another young French import for Gordon Elliott, lightly raced and improved from an average debut run to finish runner-up (beaten 1.5L) in a fillies listed hurdle race at Auteuil. It's difficult to know what to make of the form as the winner hasn't run since and half the field didn't finish (although the 3rd was 21.5L back). There are some snippets of place form by a few that have run since. Made her Irish hurdle debut in a maiden hurdle (mixed) over 16f at Punchestown last month and was heavily backed down to 8/15f. Always up with the pace, a little keen in the early stages and was a bit sketchy at a couple of flights (specially the 3rd last) but rounding the bend he had the field off the bridle and was travelling really well (Jack Kennedy looking for non-existing dangers) clearly the best horse in the race. I doubt she beat anything out of the ordinary, but the manner of her win was impressive and it was easily the best time of the day based on standard times in very wintry conditions. She's receiving all the allowances and although facing better rivals i think she will be up to the task and put herself amongst fancied runners for the Triumph hurdle. Either that or i've over estimated her and will end up a few bob poorer. I thought she would win last week and feel the same this afternoon. Good luck all. |
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Managed to nick a good bit of 2.0 plus Andrew, good luck....
I'm in agreement.  |
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Thanks for posting Andrew
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Much shorter odds now than i expected earlier, it was 2.48 last week with the same field (ref my post on Saturday).
Sophie, WD with the 2.00 +. Good luck. Hologon, thanks. |
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Very disappointing today,way too keen in the hood again.The extra 1.5 furlongs didn't help either.
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Market spoke volumes at off.
Very poor run, even stranger ride imo.... zero assistance from saddle. |
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Followed by another dreadful ride Kennedy.
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Punchestown/Sophie
I haven't seen the VR and after seeing the result i'm not sure i want to (i will watch later). Very disappointing, i thought she was better than that. It's a long uphill run-in at Navan but i didn't think the course would be an issue. She ran over slightly further at Auteuil (albeit a flat track) and she certainly wasn't stopping at Punchestown. Probably best left next time out, maybe she only beat trees LTO. Sorry Sophie and it will not be any consolation stating i also lost. It was also my nap in the daily comp although that's never a guide. |
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I thought she looked about as keen as a Spurs fan invited to attend a seminar on VAR.
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Alan
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Lay Post
Newbury 2.25 - Marie's Rock A 5 year old Milan mare trained by Nicky Henderson in Lambourn, Berkshire. Dam was ordinary during her racing career (3/29) although not so in breeding terms with a couple of offspring both winning. Most readers will be familiar with the mare who ran up a hat-trick of wins in 2019, the first in a lowly mares only bumper at Ffos Las (16f). Average form at best with only a single winner coming from the field since. Was given an almost 7 month break and improved next time out winning a reasonably good introductory (mixed sex) hurdle race at Haydock (15.5f) although she was receiving 12 lb from the runner-up. To give her credit, this was a half-decent performance. Reverted to mares only company winning well enough in a listed race (16.5f) at Taunton next time out, but 5 of the flights were omitted so it was more or less a bumper with 4 flights. Ruled out of the Dawn Run Mares novice at the Cheltenham festival last year and since had a wind operation. Obviously had issues being off almost 11 months before her run LTO in the Gerry Fielden at Newbury (16.5f) finishing 7th (beaten 12.25L) behind her stablemate Floressa who reopposes this afternoon. She was a bit keen in the early stages and although landing awkwardly 3 out and being hampered before the next was beaten at the time. She was a lay thread selection in this race. Up in grade this afternoon (Grade 2) and although a small field of 6, all bar one has the form to win. On OR she is 2 lb below the top two. Wearing a first time hood and tongue-tie. Nico rode her last time but swaps her for Floressa although i wouldn't read too much into this. The risk is she will improve for the run in November and the head accesories make a difference but in my opinion i think she's a tad overrated based on her 2019 listed win (in essence more of a flat race) and her run last time adds a little support to this, hence the lay selection. Lay @ 3.30 Good luck all. 30-Jan-21 08:21:23 14:05 Doncaster Maries Rock - 2m Grd 2 Mares Hrd Betfair Bet ID 1:223022346271 | Matched: 30-Jan-21 08:23:41 Lay 3.30 50.00 -- 115.00 50.00 Matched |
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Newbury 2.25
Might be better if layed for the Doncaster 2.05 |
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Morning Andrew. Had our jabs last week so raring to go, somewhere.
A quick question. Why wouldn't you read anything into Nico riding Floressa instead of Marie's Rock? I would have thought that was hugely significant. I think you are right, by the way but that point missed me. |
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Morning Laurie
No covid vaccination for yours truely yet and to be honest i don't expect it until mid-to-late Spring although i have registered. With respect to Nico i don't read too much into stable jockey bookings, look at AOB to name one. He's ridden Floressa in most of her races and she is rated 2 lb higher. The latter also ran well over CD behind Lady Buttons last year. I understand him riding Maries Rock LTO she was an unbeaten favourite at the time and he had also ridden her in previous runs. Good luck. |
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# truly
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Good luck, never seen such low volume on BF for a Saturday. Is everyone in Dubai? Less than 20k matched on many races!
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Trusty
Thanks. I agree with respect to early liquidity. In April 2018 when i started these lay threads we could get matched easily early morning and for larger amounts than the designated stake, not now and in mid-week it's even worse. |
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well done andrew, never in doubt.
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as ashleigh said
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Thanks Ashleigh and PHS
Listening to Fitz is almost laughable sometimes, it's as though he daren't say a bad word about a Nicky runner. |
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well done Andrew, good pick
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Good Call Andrew.
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.... Think Walshy was right about the horse when he said it looks likely something physically wrong with the horse.
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WD Andrew. Everything pointed to this one, including jockey choice.
The betting hardly split the Henderson two initially but as soon as they saw her horrible head carriage she started drifting. |
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Good evening Guys,
Matty, Glasgow and Laurie, many thanks for the comments, much appreciated. Lay selection summary Maries Rock 3rd @ 3.30 (SP 5/2). Generally switched off at the rear of the field for most of the race (as expected) and although making a little headway after the final bend i never thought she was travelling well enough to win. Didn't jump as fluently as her stablemate, clipping a few and was high at several. At the 2nd last she was struggling, not making any impression at all on the front pair and plugged on at the one pace to be beaten 22L in 3rd place. I put her up as a lay selection in her penultimate race, part of the reasoning was i think she's over-rated for reasons already stated. I maintain that stance and when i saw she was favourite for the race last night, i knew i had a lay selection for today. I actually thought she was beaten 4 flights out but prior to this i was surprised to hear Fitz being positive during the race commentary, we must have been watching different mares. It wouldn't surprise me if she was still feeling something from a previous injury that resulted in an 11 month break. Glasgowcalling also intimated this in an earlier post. Mind you Fitz rarely has a bad word to say about a Henderson runner anyway. I appreciate his connection with the stable over the years, but why not say it as it is, rather than the eulogizing waffle he often comes out with. This result brings the thread back into a small profit after two previous losses this month cost it £173 (effectively reducing the maximum profit by £273) but playing catch-up is something layers have to contend with sometimes. Onwards and upwards (hopefully). Laurie I understand what you mean about the jockey booking but like Ryan on AOB runners, i rarely read too much into it. She was the original favourite and if Nico had stayed with Maries Rock i would still have posted, he didn't win the race anyway. I actually fancied the winner although i didn't back it, but made it my nap in the daily competition. Good luck and have a nice evening all. |
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Regarding Mick Fitz (and most ex jockeys) it's a pity they can't be a bit more objective/critical of former colleagues when they are on air and after all they're being paid to analyse the days proceedings and not just constantly patronise us constantly.
The likes of Carragher and Neville or Keane in the football scene will put the boot in if their former team or colleagues are swinging the lead but ex jockeys can't see fault in anything their ex stable or weight room mates do.I'd give Ruby Walsh a pass on this as I've heard him say stuff that the likes of Fitz and McCoy would baulk at. It has got to stage where I've given up hope. |
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Good morning Andrew. I get what you are saying about Ryan Moore and AOB because they have so many runners in each race. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Ryan isn't on a winners percentage no matter what wins. It would hard to be such a bad chooser otherwise.
However in better class races I think the jockey selection is important. Not in handicaps and the like but Listed and better races. Of course they still get beaten but the generally beat their stable companion unless something unusual goes wrong. Take care and keep up the good work. |
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Good morning Guys
Punchestown I totally agree. The role of a media pundit is surely to provide a knowledgeable, impartial and analytical appraisal of the subject in question, in this case a Saturday afternoons horse racing. Micks' achievements in the saddle are well documentated, he's one of the most successful NH jockeys in history of the game, but presenting on a TV program requires completely different skills. He adds an ex-jockey perspective to the show of course, but the fawning over anything related to the Henderson stable is unnecessary and tiresome listening. I appreciate he loves the game and often overly eulogizes, but an occasional honest critique of a horses performance (past and present) or jockey ride wouldn't go amiss. I'm not only referring to Maries Rock yesterday, it's every Saturday when Nicky has a fancied runner and most have "been schooling brilliantly". You made a valid point with the pre-named footballers and this is the type of media presenting that's interesting and sincere, occasionally outspoken. Mick should take a leaf out of their book and it can be done without being disrespectful to Nicky and connections. Anyway my Sunday morning short rant is over. Over at Nass there is a WPM shortie i feel is a lay this afternoon (and have done). Bachasson (1.15). I think this is Willie simply trying to keep the horse fit for Cheltenham as it seems an odd entry to me (he never rings me for advice ). A 10 year old, out-and-out stayer who has won over 22f (also ran in the 2018 Gold Cup) and drops back in trip significantly to 15.5f (just short of 2 miles). The last time he even ran over such a trip was over 5 years ago. I appreciate the uphill finish at Naas is a test on heavy going but the field is far from the egg and spoon race he won LTO over 19.5f (30/100f) and where the runner up jumped poorly. A better chaser than a hurdler, not the most fluent, and in 11 races won over rules 10 of them came on a right handed track. Having said this, one point to consider for layers is the winning strike rate for trainer/jockey at the course over the previous 3 years, 41% and 45% respectively, impressive to say the least. Bachasson also has a touch of class but in my opinion odds of 2.46 are too short. I will decide later whether to post this one but i really don't think he will win. Good luck all. Laurie Good morning and thank you. |
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Morning Andrew,
I believe the key problem with Mick Fitz as a TV presenter/pundit, is that he has absolutely no sense of humour. Have you ever seen him laughing on screen? This produces two problems - one is that he appears uncomfortable when the people around him are being light hearted and joking - and two, it means he is unable to laugh at himself. And if you're going to be giving opinions on something as inherently unpredictable as a horse race, it's essential to be able to laugh off your mistakes. Otherwise known as self deprecation. |
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Morning Alan,
Correct, but maybe this is to be expected from a guy who once stated winning the Grand National was "better than sex". He should take lessons from Peter Casey (RIP).With all due respect to AP, he has similar traits with respect to lack of a sense of humour although probably to a lessor extent. Very wealthy, secure marriage (presumably) and family, superb house and grounds, all the trappings of success, yet he never gives the impression he's totally happy standing with a micophone in his hand (at least to me). |
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Lay Post
Naas 1.15 - Bachasson A 10 year old French bred Voix Du Nord gelding trained by Willie Mullins in County Carlow. Dam was unraced, total of 3 offspring, Bachasson the best of them by far. A decent type with winning form in all 3 disciplines of NH racing, bumper, hurdle and chase. A typical staying type (ran in the 2018 Cheltenham Gold Cup) and has an entry in the stayers hurdle this year. As stated in an earlier post i thought it was on odd entry dropping down to 15.5f even allowing that Naas with a stiff finish on heavy going will certainly bring his stamina into play. The last time he even ran at close to 16f was in December 2015. Rated 160 over chases and better over the larger obstacles. A 50% strike rate over hurdles although this record is less impressive taking in his last 8 runs (2 wins). From his 11 Irish NH wins, all bar one was achieved on a right hand course (going left this afternoon) although this may not be an issue. Never ran at Naas. Going for a 4-time this afternoon (2 chases and 1 hurdle win previously) but the latter wasn't a strong field (30/100f) and he was assisted by the runner-ups jumping. He's also prone to errors. Favoured by the weights with most and although a small field of 5 (reduced by the earlier NR) his main rivals are not pushovers by any means particularly Beacon Edge (the latter a pound worse in). The couple of outsiders have it all to do but are not out of it completely. Generally races up with the pace and i suspect he will lead this afternoon with the others close up. Not much change throughout (assuming no fallers) and i see the finish being a sprint from the 2nd last on a shortish run-in. The risk is he does have a touch of class and the strike rate of trainer and jockey at Naas over the last 3 years is impressive at 41% and 45% respectively. At 10 years old, does he have the speed to cope with the younger brigade and he will have to hurdle quicker and more fluently than LTO. I may have underestimated his class but i'm not convinced this is the right race for him and certainly felt the earlier odds of 2.46 were too short (prior to the NR) hence the lay selection. Lay @ 2.38 Good luck all. 31-Jan-21 11:45:34 13:15 Naas Bachasson - 1m7f Grd3 Hrd Betfair Bet ID 1:223164597622 | Matched: 31-Jan-21 11:46:51 Lay 2.38 50.00 -- 69.00 50.00 Matched |
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It's almost like Fitzgerald is a representative of the Henderson yard and is there as their spokesman on TV as opposed to giving his own personal opinion on something.Because of the time spent at the yard you would forgive a lean towards Nicky H's horses but to be so blinkered in his comments render him useless in his current role.
Interesting lay Andrew,it does seem to favour going right handed alright but curiously has never raced at this track before.Beacon Edge might not appreciate the drop in trip either so this could be a good watch. The weights for this race are even more curious and the fav is well in considering. |
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Punchestown
It's a risky selection and i probably only have a couple running for me but i was always going to oppose it when i saw the race/field/odds last night. Beacon Edge is also stepping back (was running over 16f last year) but i feel he's got the better tactical speed for this field. He's subject to the weight penalty structure (winning since July 2019) but is only a lb worse off with Bachasson. Grand Roi is also in this. I sense WPM is using this race as a 'sighter' to decide if he wants to stick with his stayers hurdle entry, a race that is more suited to him in my opinion. Good luck. |