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Clan Des Obeaux is a max lay in King George
Clan Des Obeaux is a max lay in King George
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Replies: 129
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^^^^^ frodon needs to find more but should set the pace , waiting patiently been missing longer than lord lucan .talented but a big ask .
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Good luck with your bet Foyles. 11/2 is a good bet and one I would be interested in if available today.
Every horse has a lay and back price. It’s the probability of winning that you use your judgement on. Epatante who is currently 1/3 is a max back at 4/7 and max lay at 1/5. I’ve laid CDO at 3.15 but can easily backed at 3.4 now....maybe I’ll back at 3.6 or so if it drifts more and someone convinces me I’m wrong. At the moment I agree totally with your summary of the race. When I backed Santini ew at 8/1 on Tuesday it was in the hope there would be only 6 or 7 runners and he could hit the frame. He’s too short now at 11/2 with 7 horses with plausible chances. |
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San Quentin Lol ,as I said some ridiculous posts throughout 2020 ,this perhaps tops the lot,only time will tell.
I read the first post and seriously thought it was a wind up. I'm still not completely sure, although subsequent posts seem to be justifying the nonsense! Clan Des Obeaux: About the only thing I can agree with is that he is not a prolific winner. His race record however is 23 runs 8 wins, 7 seconds, 1 third. As a chaser he clearly needs his comeback race He is particularly suited by Kempton He has run to ratings of mid 170's at Kempton twice, Haydock and Ascot Concentrating on optimum conditions (not comeback race, righthanded, flat track, soft ground, chase three miles), his form is 8 runs 5 wins, 1 second, 1 third The Kempton times do not suggest poor King George races. Looking at the race this year: Ground, might not suit Santini or Black Op Age, Waiting Patiently and Black Op are nine, older than most winners Distance Saint Calvados, Waiting Patiently and Real Steel might not stay Santini and Black Op might need further I will confidently rule out Santini as not suited by track or distance Cyrname and/or Lostintranslation might improve on last years disappointing runs in the race and they need to! But I have no hesitation in siding with Clan Des Obeaux, a great jumper perfectly suited by track and conditions, but of course he was bigger price @ 9/4 ante post a couple of weeks ago. |
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Horses for courses; CDO is proven at the track, distance and race (2x). He's the best credentials of the runners in the race; Cyrname his main market opponent achieved a ludicrous rating beating Altior (over a new trip) and very heavy ground.
The main danger to CDO is Lostintranslation, if he's on song. He stays and he can quicken; trip is ideal, and good to soft is no problem. Only question is his mentality on saturday. |
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Storm,
If someone posted, Enable max lay Arc or Tiger Roll max lay cross country would they be less ridiculous? They were both much shorter than CDO ? |
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No Hibore, they would be after timers!
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15/8? ,you can't lay that on here.
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I was in Down Royal last year and backed Reel Steel , one of Nicholls set an unreal pace for nearly 2 mile but you just knew Reel would pick him up when he wanted to , when Paul sent him after the Nicholls horse he left him for dead and won pulling a cart, it brings me back to his run in the G.C. and with two to jump he was right in the firing line . He likes going right handed and he should have the race run to suit and @ 16/1 on here looks a fair bet ...
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surely a future King George winner
would'nt be finishing behind Itchy Feet? GL |
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Just had £20 win @ 16/1 and £20 place @ 3.8.
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i saw him win his beginners chase at fairyhouse workrider it was not much of a race but i just saw something about him showed plenty of speed after the last,i was a bit disappointed with him in the jlt ,last season his two poor runs were in the john durkan and the red mills both on bad ground,i backed him yesterday at 18/1 ew for the reason you point out the fact that two out in the gold cup he looked a very possible winner ,it was no surprise he didnt get the test the gold cup is.his comeback at ascot was ok the winner at ascot is a very good horse 18/1 16/1 is a very fair price.
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The one thing that would put me off laying CDO is history. Since 1980, 17 runnings of the King George have been won by a horse that had won the race before - it's the ultimate course specialist race in the calendar.
Having said that, only three horses have won it more than twice in that period - Wayward Lad, Desert Orchid and Kauto Star, which is pretty exclusive company CDO is hoping to join. Personally, I think it'll be one of the front two in the market, simply because I can't see either Lostintranslation or Santini ever being able to win a Grade 1 chase on a right handed track. Which makes it a watch don't bet race for me, so good luck to backers and layers alike - and I enjoyed the OP, as strong opinions (as we see here) provoke comments and produce interesting threads. |
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those are the two i could not have also anorak not just for the right hand track reason.
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probably wrong but agree with the fall apart scenario seems to happen every year in KG only one horse supposedly running its race
no idea which but almost certain one of pumpkins top 2 underperforms,the shootouts never seem to materialise , back last years winner ew at 11 to 2 so couldnt back it a 2,s,backed cyrname for 1st time at weth because of its price,not sure where to go santini looked good ew bet at 6,s but looks like been backed wait till the off they could all drift 3,s the field job |
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Hibore -If someone posted, Enable max lay Arc or Tiger Roll max lay cross country would they be less ridiculous? They were both much shorter than CDO ?
No problem with your opinion, that's what is is all about. Strongly disagreed with reasons given though i.e. CDO form away from Kempton and quality of last two King Georges. And BDM is a serious horse at Haydock and CDO out up an excellent performance against him last time, first time out. |
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Ground would be a issue if it stays heavy Jimnast, you actually stood beside me at Fairyhouse when it won I'd backed it as well as yourself..
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it wont be heavy workrider soft at worse even so kempton is never bad ground ,that day the card at fairyhouse produced 2 future festival winners honeysuckle who was just starting to get a name for herself and chosen mate,more interestingly a champion hurdle runner up,darver star and not to forget the 16 year old see double you also ran.
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A decent thread and as already pointed out it's all about opinions in what is probably the most anticipated race over the Christmas festive period.
I was at Ascot for the Cyrname race v Altior duel and backed the latter as (a) one of my favourite chasers and (b) i've never really been a fan of the other and thought his rating was a little exaggerated, primarily based on a couple of wins in races that were definitely questionable, impressive though he was. The only thing i got right about Altior was the ante-post odds (i wouldn't have backed at SP) but even 2 fences out i had a feeling he was tired. I think this form should be ignored, in fact, it probably favours Altior that he got so close. The handicapper raised Cyrname a pound for the win (177) and he's run to a similar mark since (177 and 176) but he fell in one (well beaten at the time) and does a win in an 'ordinary' Charlie Hall really redeem him. I'm not convinced he really wants 3 miles although we've only had 2 runs to find out and in one of them he was comprehensively beaten by CDO. Cyrname is clearly useful, but CDO comes alive at Kempton, it's akin to Liverpool playing at home (sorry Alan  ) and although his strike rate is only 35% his form on flat tracks is generally good. Cyrname has the highest rating, but only two as such have won in the last 10 runnings of the race. I wouldn't be a layer of CDO, in fact i think he will win, but good luck to all players and let's hope it's a good race. Personally i think Saint Roi is the festive season banker (similar odds) but that's for Ireland on Tuesday and another thread. |
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the first race i ever watched with you workrider was also at fairyhouse from your excellent viewing position the winner that day has already achieved plenty including taking advantage of the incredible saga at punchestown when paul townend had his brain storm,the storyteller.
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looking forward to that race on tuesday andrew.
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Jimnast
Me too, probably more so than Kempton on Boxing day. I like Saint Roi and was disappointed (and poorer) after his last run. I rarely blame jockeys, but it wasn't Marks finest hour and he should have won cosily enough, although it means we may get a slightly better odds on Tuesday and i will be backing him. In my opinion he's the danger to the mare in the Cheltenham CH. Good luck. |
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And the winner of the race did so despite doing everything possible on the run to the line to avoid doing so, there has been a lot of coverage about Saint Roi's hard luck story and very little about how Abas also did not have the race run to suit. Hopefully Petit Mouchoir will set this up perfectly for the closers and they all get a fair run through.
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future champions novice hurdle also to look forward to as well on a cracking few days of quality racing both sides of the pond .
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as foyles says andrew some great racing both sides of the irish sea including a cracking novice chase at limerick on boxing day ,regarding the matheson i think duffy has summed it up perfect.
good luck |
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i see petit mouchoir has changed ownership i like that horse.
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No work at Kempton this year 'foxy'. Any chance of a rebate ? Best regards to you and your good lady.
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I always remember John Francome saying that everyone seems to think that Kempton is an easy track... WRONG!! He said it`s run at such a fast rate and always on the turn, that you can`t get a breather into a horse.
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Santini getting well backed...you gone in again,Hibore?
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Just from a form point of view this race only involves 2 horses on ability that can win this race, the rest are priced up accordingly from a betting point of view...
I have to say I haven’t bought any of the nonsense about cyrname and his ability to to stay the distance, has to run at ascot and all the other junk written about this top class chaser and I’ve certainly paid to find out today...yes you can argue he collapsed cheaper than a cheap millets tent in last years race, a race I had my maximum ew on cyrname at the 6/1 ante post but their were 3 mitigating circumstances which lead to that defeat imo... 1, was clearly the hard race he had against Altior, himself an exceptional chaser, the conspiracy theorists will have you believe Altior didn’t get home that day but I thought he did, he just got beat by a better class horse, with more class than him on that day...the time although it didn’t look it the way the race was run, on the day was very quick, eluding to the fact both horses ran right up to their best and quickly in doing it, the race had consequences however with both trainers saying both had hard races 2, if you look at the race at kempton last year, if you look closely, notice the recalcitrant way in which cyrname behaves, at the start he doesn’t want to jump off with the field and he also try’s to duck out with a circuit to run...now some, in fact many will say he didn’t get home/stay the distance that day(he didn’t) but to any informed eye this horse never went a yard in that race....some of the nonsense written has been some of the biggest nonsense I have read in my 25 years, in regards using last years race in order to criticise the horse 3, Paul nicholls backed clan des obeux to win last years race and imo his training of cyrname affected cyrname’s performance to maximum affect, in order to win his bet... people will argue l talk nonsense in this regard but when you had the bet I’d had you listen to everything in the lead up to a race, to know you have struck the right wager...when cyrname beat Altior last year nicholls turned round and said in the week after the race he’s fine he’s been up the gallop 3 times this week? I said to my mate why is he training this horse hard after that hard race, after all he’s already fit? The horse should be resting I said not working hard, then in the week leading up to the race I find out nicholls has backed his other runner...anyway he ran like a recalcitrant pig last year, he couldn’t even lift a leg to race Venetia Williams horse early in the race, so people dissecting him and his ability to stay need their head testing, judging him on last years running Today is the day cyrname needs judging, his form and his ability to stay off of a good preparation this time will tell us how good he is and you are getting the right price today... I personally didn’t dissect that wetherby run to much as it was a mere confidence booster to get the horse back on track... expect a huge performance from the horse today imo... I honestly think he can run to 183 today, it has to remembered vautour got nailed close home in this race after running huge and he was top class but I don’t see any cue cards in this today...the only other horse on ability I see racing him is waiting patiently, whose always been a top class but comes in with risk attached, as he is in off the lay off but is in good hands with a perfectly capable trainer who can ready one add to which the horse has performed near his best off the lay off If these 2 don’t run to form I see it as being very open from a handicapping point of view and they all have a chance on that front, with no stand out...I’m not a clan des obeux fan so if he wins I’ll be surprised, as he isn’t that good for anyone that reads a form book, he won’t be getting a trot round today that’s a sure fact but I’ll be the first to tip my cap if he wins today and happily Chuck the books in the bin but I won’t be betting him in this competitive heat that is a sure fact |
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Think Real Steel could run well @ a big price . Ran a stormer in the gold cup came there cruising 2 out (despite being taken a tour of prestbury park wide by hughes) cantering all over Santini/Lostintranslation /Clan/. As stated by many cant have Santini over this track and distance and a poor price lay to back i/r anyway
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CDO is value; 2x winner and at 5/2 is a good introduction for 2021.
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nicholls didnt train cyrname well to win his bet,that must be the biggest load of nonsense you have read in the last 25 years
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Timeform have top rated Cyrname, 7 clear of CDO
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For beating Altior (over a new trip and heavy grund), bonkers!
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CDO biggest drifter of the day - Matt Chapman.
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Harry, thanks for taking the time to write that piece, I always admire someone who lays it down in black and white even if sometimes i don't agree with their opinion. You have stated your case well, having backed Reel Steel e/w for small money I'll be more a watcher than punter, as its a race I really like so had to have a little punt . Again I thank you for the write up and good luck today...
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If I remember correctly Paisley Park was a drifter too against Thyme Hill; Cyrname and Santini probably bookies/pundits red herring.
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Cheers work rider I appreciate it, yes opinionated I am but when you live and breath It like I do, I don’t like all that gets said by any amount of guessers in the game in regards a horse like cyrname...yes he’s got to go and do it but for me he is an exceptional chaser that gets a hard press from invalid reasoning
Ok the quirky creature may get beat and everyone will be right but this time they will be right for the right reasons and not the wrong reasons Plenty of others with chances including real Steele and I’m more keen on the wrags for varying reasons, than I am with the others at top of the market outside cyrname and maybe the tizzards horse. I actually like black op to sneak in the 4 at good odds...It is a very open betting heat and if cyrname blobs and finishes out the back of the telly plenty don’t have much to find on the book with each other but I swear a top class performance is hidden behind the quirky creature and hopefully he can bring that brilliance to the table today at very fair odds, if he doesn’t we can dissect him after the race, as it is d-day for the horse, with no excuses today |
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CDO was 13/8 om Wednesday.
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I will add I do expect clan des obeux to be around 4.2 or 4.3 mark on here before the race as that is his actual chances of winning the race...with cyrname around 2.72 because that is his chance...good luck with the wagering
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