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punts
19 Nov 20 20:57
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Date Joined: 16 Feb 06
| Topic/replies: 4,574 | Blogger: punts's blog
I was looking at tomorrows Ascot Maiden hurdle and it seems way too competitive with top yards competing with some nice types.

I thought "no bet" but then I saw Alan King's record at Ascot in Maiden Hurdles:

20 runners, 5 winners (25%), ROI: 250%.

That is some record. He last struck in 2014 (with Simply A Legend) and since then a few placed efforts.

He runs: Royal Pretender (by Great Pretender) and it's 20/1!

This is my idea of a (small) bet in the race. I think its great value. Other than that your guess is as good as mine....
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Report Tiger Tiger November 19, 2020 9:11 PM GMT
Royal Pretender went into my notebook after rattling home last time out, still running green and finished fourth, this is tougher, much tougher but at the price, worth a win and place bet with in running lay off.
Report punts November 19, 2020 9:12 PM GMT
cheers for that Tiger... I couldn't venture picking between the other 3 so this seems like a good idea for a small bet £ to enjoy the race!

G/L tomorrow, Tiger. I will have more thoughts in the morning!
Report punts November 19, 2020 9:32 PM GMT
Any rain will be a big plus for this French bred. 'Showers' are expected.
Report ronnie rails November 19, 2020 9:34 PM GMT
Tiger Punts
I am trying to pick you brain if the fav bolts up in the race what price would it be for the Albert Bartlett and what price should it be today for the ab TIA

have a nice evening

regarda
Ronnie.
Report punts November 19, 2020 9:40 PM GMT
Hi Ronnie,

For those backing the Fav the form of the Henderson yard has to be a concern. This is why I see this race being wide open including King's having a shot at a crazy price.

I would not put anyone off any of the 4.

It's a tough one to call...

G/L
Report Tiger Tiger November 19, 2020 9:45 PM GMT
Ronnie, the AB is the most gruelling race of the festival imo when you take into account the ages of the entrants and that they are all novices. Should the Henderson horse win tomorrow you would still want to see 50/1, unless tomorrows performance is something special which looks unlikely, the horse so far has proved to be dodgy at his hurdles.
Report ronnie rails November 19, 2020 9:47 PM GMT
Punts

thank you

the reason I asked I want a score on fav to win the albert Bartlett but not one firm or ex have got him priced up.
thanks again
Ronnie.
Report ronnie rails November 19, 2020 9:48 PM GMT
Tiger

thank you

have a nice evening

regards

Ronnie.
Report punts November 19, 2020 9:58 PM GMT
Tiger: Will there be a 3 TBP market tomorrow? If backing the place do it in that because of the previous runners King has had in races like this a lot have come 3/6 etc.
Report Tiger Tiger November 19, 2020 10:12 PM GMT
Its hard to trade out in the minor markets.
Report FOYLESWAR November 19, 2020 10:43 PM GMT
good luck ,i like the shape of the 1.30 ascot might be some value once the markets sort themselves out ,interesting race ,
Report mrcombustible November 20, 2020 8:03 AM GMT
Punts I can't find anything in the pedigree to get excited about. Great Pretender isn't exactly a stand out NH sire unlike Flemensfirth, Getaway and even Scorpion. The dam and grand dam have not produced anything decent.


The Edgar Wallace is a half brother to Black Hercules

Time Flies By, the dam has produced 4 good winners and the granddam Celestial Gold and Fiveforthree

Good luck with your bet.
Report punts November 20, 2020 8:09 AM GMT
Thanks mrcombustible it's just a value bet. King has the best record in Maidens @ Ascot in the race Cool & I can't choose between the others..
Report punts November 20, 2020 10:32 AM GMT
Now 12/1 .........
Report gibo1981 November 20, 2020 10:58 AM GMT
Punts - Where do you source your stats? Interesting. I only have access to the last five seasons data
Report punts November 20, 2020 11:08 AM GMT
gibo: do you have email? post it
Report gibo1981 November 20, 2020 4:33 PM GMT
Punts can you direct message me on here?
Report punts November 20, 2020 4:39 PM GMT
Done gibo. I think. 

I had to switch to new community etc. I hope you got it?
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