There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 123 comments are related to the topic:
kamala harris next usa president
kamala harris next usa president
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 123
|
By:
fck it
|
|
By:
a dot in the line underneath
|
|
By:
underneath being the key word as a £ $ or € sign will also work
|
|
By:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/what-happens-if-a-presidential-candidate-dies-20201009-p563nf.html
, |
|
By:
ta, my text is screwed, if i try to go underneath it posts the line above instantly, no idea what happened to it
|
|
By:
still re the bf rules the question is on where they decide "projected" sits, i initially took it as first to get to 270 but once trump starts challenging in court i'm no longer sure where that now is
|
|
By:
in any case there isn't a route for harris to win- if biden has the required number of states his backers get paid.
|
|
By:
Dave
if you have backed him in the shops I think you will have to wait a long time to collect a month at the very earliest. hope you are well have a nice evening regards Ronnie. |
|
By:
betfair rules aren't shop rules - so that would be correct, BF rules are designed to pay out as soon as the votes are counted.
have a good evening also |
|
By:
and i haven't had a bet in that market in any case
|
|
By:
05-Nov-20
11:42:25 USA - Presidential Election 2020 Kamala Harris - Next President Betfair Bet ID 1:215902438450 | Matched: 05-Nov-20 11:42:26 Back 1000.00 80.00 -- -- 79,920.00 Matched |
|
By:
what you going to spend it on?
|
|
By:
New Porch
|
|
By:
do you need someone with some taste to help pick a colour?
|
|
By:
As the market rules are written, it is possible that Betfair will end up paying out on the "Next President" market on a candidate who does not become the next president, which would be unfortunate, to say the least.
As we saw with the massive confusion over the Theresa May resignation market, the people at Betfair who write the rules for these political bets are not constitutional experts, and they cannot be relied on to draw up rules in a coherent and watertight way. Anyway, a bet on Kamala Harris could be interesting if, as we expect, the result of the election is legally contested by Team Trump, probably going all the way to the Supreme Court. The electoral officials in the States which are contested by Trump will most likely NOT able to certify their results (and appoint electors) to the Electoral College UNTIL the legal proceedings are concluded. Even if the mainstream media is claiming that Biden has won, it is hard to see how Betfair could settle the "projected Electoral College votes" whilst the correct number of College Electors in one, or several, states is still being officially determined. Now, if Biden croaked before the Supreme Court decision (which theoretically might not be until mid-December) and Kamala Harris stepped in for Biden, then the "projected" Biden Electors would become Harris Electors, and the Electoral College would nominate Harris as the next President. In that instance, Betfair should pay out on Harris, not Biden. |
|
By:
If a horse dies after the winning line the bet still pays. The betfair market is designed to be settled on the projected EC votes after the election and not the actual after the EC process. In addition the market rules ignore "subsequent events". The rules are designed to pay out quickly and they will do so, citing their rules as the justification.
|
|
By:
There have been a total of 165[3] instances of faithlessness as of 2016, 63 of which occurred in 1872 when Horace Greeley died after Election Day but before the Electoral College convened. Nearly all have voted for third party candidates or non-candidates, as opposed to switching their support to a major opposing candidate.
given the above and the betfair rules on faithless electors, it is impossible for harris to win |
|
By:
the "next president" in the title is whats confusing you all (except Dave and a couple of others). ignore that cos that's not what youre betting on.
|
|
By:
longbridge 05 Nov 20 14:04 Joined: 25 Nov 10 | Topic/replies: 2,669 | Blogger: longbridge's blog Not a 1000/1 shot. Not even a million-to-1 shot. The market rules say "This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election." There is literally no way that can be anyone other than Biden or Trump. And yes, the market name and market rules being different things is not exactly ideal yep, sorry, didn't see this posted earlier. |
|
By:
She has the same chance as Rolf Harris as being paid out on here as the winner.
|
|
By:
won't stop them trading her, any uncertainty creates trades and they're not interested in the final result just the green
|
|
By:
true, I think that was why betfair deleted the thread on politics where an idividual who we will call mr ramper (not his real name) was very vigorous in his arguments.
|
|
By:
was that fxdux that got deleted? the graph tells the story, but if you look at the unmatched chunks sitting at 4.0 and below one or more people are sitting on a big payoff if she steams
|
|
By:
be worth seeing the level of panic if biden get c19
|
|
By:
As I've said before, I think BF will close the market ASAP. Their rules allow them to do it and they can use the "subsequent events are irrelevant" rule to quash any dissent.
|
|
By:
i tend to agree, the first chance might be later today when a couple more declare, can't see a trump phone call happening though he's in complete denial
|
|
By:
Bush/Gore took a MOTNH to resolve so BF should not close the market IMO
|
|
By:
I think they will respect official recounts, but ignore trump's spurious legal challenges. They haven't closed michigan state yet as trump has indicated he wants a recount, but not sure if he has paid the money, $3m, yet.
|
|
By:
shud i green up?
|
|
By:
I understand all the arguments that Harris won't be settled as the winner in any way. But ... imagine the stories in the press from disgruntled 999/1 backers if Harris does become president and their bets are settled as losers.
You've got a market with the title USA - Presidential Election 2020 - Next President, and Betfair would be paying out on a man six foot under and pushing up the daisies. |
|
By:
It doesn't help that they've left the market up with dozens of candidates other than Biden and Trump listed. If those candidates can't win according to the rules, why haven't they all been settled as losers, and their names removed?
Betfair do that in other ante-post markets. Look at the IPL market, for instance: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/cricket/market/1.168634253 Betfair have settled and removed the four teams already knocked out. So why haven't they done it here, if Harris et al. genuinely have been knocked out of the race? |
|
By:
hoping for a mis click?
|
|
By:
All they're going to get is a photo in the Daily Mail of gutted Tyneside punter Richard Dangleflaps, standing outside a motor dealer's with his 999/1 voucher and gazing mournfully at the porch he'd always dreamed of.
|
|
By:
I have bets on here and Korals in UK (including 'cover' bets on Pence and Harris)
As far as i'm concerend, when i placed the bets, i assumed it was for the man/woman standing as President on January 21st 2021, but if BF pay out before then i'm certainly not complaining. |
|
By:
Please note that candidates in this market will not be partially settled and will remain in the market until it is fully settled. This is to allow customers to continue trading candidates that they have positions on and because each candidate is still a valid runner in this market.
This might explain why other candidates still show, it's in the rules..... |
|
By:
each candidate is still a valid runner in this market.
 ... but they can't win it.  |
|
By:
No wonder customer support is so busy presently!
 |
|
By:
@screaming..
"If those candidates can't win according to the rules, why haven't they all been settled as losers, and their names removed?" Because it's bad enough when they do that in the Premiership Winner market, and this one is orders of magnitude bigger. If you have green-booked the market, but they settle your losing selections before your winning selection, you have to fund those losses from your balance (or live with being in negative balance and unable to bet) until the winner gets settled - and for the size of some people's positions on a half-bilion-pound-matched market, that's a lot of funds to find for potentially weeks of time. The best answer might be what they do with antepost Racing markets, where the dead horses or those not entered etc are hidden from the market and backers' exposure freed up, but not settled until the winner is known? |
|
By:
Yes, longbridge. That's the solution.
But leaving them in, and explicitly stating that "each candidate is still a valid runner in this market", is surely leaving a great big stinking can of worms open. |
|
By:
maybe but it stops them having to make decisions - and remember it is possible for US voters to simply write the name of their choice on the ballot, so on that basis everyone is live until the final counts.
|