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05 Nov 20
12:40
Joined:
Date Joined:
07 Sep 18
£62,000 @1000
£31,000.000 tied up..
anywun in ear?
£31,000.000 tied up..
anywun in ear?
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Replies: 123
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joe dies before january ...kamala becomes president
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Seen worse 1000/1 shots?
Betting on a 77 yo getting seriously ill within the space of the next 2 months? A horrible thing to bet on but surely its a better chance than 1 in 1000. See 23 avail at 980! |
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Not a 1000/1 shot. Not even a million-to-1 shot.
The market rules say "This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election." There is literally no way that can be anyone other than Biden or Trump. And yes, the market name and market rules being different things is not exactly ideal. |
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Exactly,
even if Biden was to croak right now, I doubt it would matter as his name is on the ballot. Yanks are not unknown to elect dead people in any case. |
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big gamble in progress..
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Its Hulk.
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Now trading between 200 and 300
Either someone hasn't read the rules or someone (a) has better insight in how the market will settle in bizarre circumstances and (b) knows something. I will always choose ****-up over conspiracy :) |
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oh wow - not only can you not say "Purple" on here, you cannot say "willy" either...
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Strange as I have often said purple on here.
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dwayne Johnson plenty matched 1000
any chance of the rock taking over ? |
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rico wishes he'd laid johnson at 1000, and the rest. probably in the panic room right now whacking himself off at the thought.
he snoozed, he losed  |
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i had £80 on her @1000 earlier...pondering whether to trade out.
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well as that's the only way you'll get paid..
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i had £80 on her @1000 earlier...pondering whether to trade out.
more aftertiming !! wac  |
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WD Greentoof nice payout
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We're 100% sure that Biden's electoral college votes wouldn't be transferred to his running mate should he kick the bucket?
Just asking ... |
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yes they could is my understanding screaming, but the contentious point in the rules is that they say they pay on the projected college vote
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The actual implications for the real world would be ffs, but as soon as biden hits 270 betfair pay out on him dead or alive.
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dead ppl stay in the market also
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just to add a bit of intrigue, i'm not sure if people are aware, but the ballot paper is marked biden/harris and trump/pence, not just the presidential nominee, i'm not involved re the trading that's happening currently, i'd imagine some is speculative in case something happens to biden and everyone panics crashing her price
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Ah, I see. Thanks, elise.
Still wouldn't want to be laying a thousand on that wording ... |
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Whathappensifhediesbeforethe270?????
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before 270 i think it's harris as the nominee
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its projected votes so the states would still declare.
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some of this stuff has never been properly tested in law and you have to remember who is also on the other side
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but that might not matter because betfair rules do not match the us election rules
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What if Biden croaks it, or Trump gets him committed to the bin, BEFORE he hits 270?
I mean, they're still counting, aren't they? |
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If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.
Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time if Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. DOASYOULIKEY. |
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dave , i can't rem the date but the proper declaration date is early december to go before the senate?
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i'll look it up one sec
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rico ..you've lost £80 if you don't
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mostly questions answered here https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/what-happens-if-a-presidential-candidate-dies-20201009-p563nf.html
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and the rest https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/what-happens-if-a-presidential-candidate-dies-20201009-p563nf.html
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ffs betfair ... ndidate-dies-20201009-p563nf.html
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Minefield of a market
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shouldn't be really, but in law if the demcs win the vote in theory she has more of a chance of being president than trump
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put a dot on the line underneath and the link will show
the thing is that the rules are set so that betfair can pay out as soon as the candidate with the most EC votes is projected and subsequent events don't matter. The only issue would be biden dying AND the states stopping counting. |
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https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/what-happens-if-a-presidential-candidate-dies-20201009-p563nf.html ............................................................................ put extra just in case lol
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