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04 Jun 20 08:44
Date Joined: 25 Nov 01
| Topic/replies: 2,400 | Blogger: driver2's blog
Ladbrokes, Corals, Bet Victor, all laying 10-11. Has Christmas come early or do they know something we don't? Pinatubo was 1-3 both times that he met and defeated 2nd fav Arizona comfortably which leaves Kameko the only other challenger on a single digit price.
Having said all that, I'm inclined to believe that he can't win at that kind of price. Can't wait to hear what Charlie's got to say.
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Report Deltâ June 4, 2020 9:59 AM BST
All of them might be relying on Pinatubo falling short of the dazzling standards he set last year and Appleby wasn't giving them much cause for optimism on Wednesday as he gave the thumbs up to the favourite's preparation.

"He's done everything right," said Appleby. "I'm very happy with him. He's eating, drinking and looking well. I wouldn't change my script about him from 12 months ago – he just goes out and gets the job done. I can't fault him."
Report driver2 June 4, 2020 10:19 AM BST
I missed that Delta, I'm surprised that the layers haven't taken note as C.A. has always struck me as being a pretty honest guy.
Report layingisthewayforward June 4, 2020 11:23 AM BST
Standard trainer speak, he's hardly going to say he hasn't trained on is he?
Report tanglefoot June 4, 2020 11:29 AM BST
The fact that there hasn’t been much rain,and Pinatubo love give in the ground,should be reason to treat carefully
Report GAZO June 4, 2020 11:49 AM BST
pretty quick ground at the curragh and his best performance
Report layingisthewayforward June 4, 2020 11:51 AM BST
You beat me to it Gazo.
Report layingisthewayforward June 4, 2020 11:52 AM BST
Tanglefoot, what makes you say he loves give in the ground? 3 of his 6 wins have been on good, good to firm in places.
Report tanglefoot June 4, 2020 11:57 AM BST
Just an impression I got,maybe I am wrong.
Report acey deucy June 4, 2020 1:50 PM BST
Pinatubo was a natural two year old and i will be very surprised if he hits any heigts as a three year old....I could be talking rubbish but that is what i think.Plain
Report impossible123 June 4, 2020 1:55 PM BST
I hope you're wrong. I like to see an outstanding colt this season. Pinatubo apart there does not seem to be any outstanding from last season.
Report howard June 4, 2020 1:56 PM BST
be very surprised if you are not talking rubbish Laugh
Report dr . atkins June 4, 2020 1:57 PM BST
the horse never been one to work like a champion on the gallops so if people been watching it on the gallops they would not have been impressed
Report FOYLESWAR June 4, 2020 2:03 PM BST
last year charlie said "he shows very little at home "  if he still shows not a lot at home how would they know if he had trained on or not . if he has improved then its game over but if he has not progressed some of the others may have improved past him.
Report duffy June 4, 2020 2:03 PM BST
If it's a genuine issue about it being a race against time to when the rest catch up with him then Guineas a month later has just helped the rest catch up that little bit more, the old adage that the Guineas is the last 2 year old race of the season doesn't apply this year.

Also wasn't Appleby a bit mealy mouthed a while back in comments he made about the horse training on.?
Report Angela Rebecchi June 4, 2020 2:04 PM BST
Usually look opposing these but don't see any reason to at the prices. Looks the clear best in the field.
Report FOYLESWAR June 4, 2020 2:07 PM BST
can see where ya coming from angela but the price ? ,bookmakers not known for giving it away.
Report impossible123 June 4, 2020 2:20 PM BST
Unless one thinks Pinatubo is unlikely to have trained on Pinatubo is outstanding value, and the good to firm ground is no issue either; the Dewhurst was run on soft ground after a scintillating run in Ireland just 3 weeks before; 2nd fav Arizona prefers softer ground; Kameko is held on a line with Positive.

Wichita for the forecast with the fav (as saver).
Report driver2 June 5, 2020 10:45 AM BST
layingisthewayforward 04 Jun 20 10:23 
Standard trainer speak, he's hardly going to say he hasn't trained on is he?

Charlie Appleby is not known for "trainer speak" and is always worth listening to. There has been no better example than yesterday when he was ssked how well his 2 y olds had progressed. They're ok he said, but the fillies are a bit behind the colts! He was spot on and I would imagine many punters, including me, benefitted from the info.
Hopefully he'll give us more "trainer speak" soon!
Report differentdrum June 5, 2020 10:46 PM BST
Seems strange to me that very few bookmakers are betting without the favourite. Do they want business?

Favourite is by far the most likely winner but there is always a chance that he might not reproduce last year's form. He wasn't overly impressive in the Dewhurst but perhaps that was one race too many?

I backed Wichita last season but although he looks the part I can't see him staying. Obviously, Frankie isn't a disadvantage.

I have added Kenzai Warrior four places. His maiden worked out as well as any and he backed it up on different ground. I expect him to give his running but the big question is whether he is good enough.
Report dr . atkins June 5, 2020 10:51 PM BST
even more strange people not mention charlie's other runner in the race i wonder what charlie will say if someone on itv racing would ask him how it been going at home
Report Schraderbrau June 6, 2020 6:55 AM BST
Written in the stars for Charlie and William to win a Guineas, especially with a superstar hoss like Pinatubo. Nothing for me to suggest he wouldn't have trained on, just to what degree? and has any other trained on significantly more over the winter months. Appleby has been pure class for this high profile operation that was tainted by that diQhed Al Zarooni.
Report driver2 June 6, 2020 7:33 AM BST
Well said Schraderbrau, Charlie Appleby is pure class!
Report brigust1 June 6, 2020 12:05 PM BST
Anyone else think the 8s about the Derby is not bad price? I have already backed the fav before today but I do think the Derby could be his next race if he wins so I have jumped before being pushed. His trainer said today has already earmarked Ghaiyyath for the Eclipse and I really cannot see the Sheikh going for the St James Palace in a couple of weeks time so I do think the Derby is the aim providing everything goes well today.

It is 50 years this year to Nijinsky winning the 2000 Guineas and then the Derby and he was also 8s for the Derby just before the Guineas. Like Pinatubo Nijinsky's first wins were over 6 furlongs and he ended up winning the Dewhurst. Nijinsky was not a certain stayer on breeding but  O'Brien thought he would win the Guineas so trained him for the Derby from the start of is 3 year old career.

I think if he wins today in the style he should that 8's will look pretty big.
Report saxon farm June 6, 2020 12:08 PM BST
No 3 year olds in The Eclipse this year brigust1.
Report impossible123 June 6, 2020 12:12 PM BST
Did Appleby not hint if triumphant (today), no Epsom, but St James's Palace; if stuffed Derby/Prince Of Wales/King George would be more likely.
Report June 6, 2020 12:15 PM BST
Pinatubo can't run in the Prince Of Wales
Report brigust1 June 6, 2020 12:49 PM BST
Are these reasons all not good reasons why the Derby could be next on the agenda? The timing would be right and if they keep him to a mile the next is the Sussex Stakes end of July. If, as some say, the others will catch him up as the season progresses the best thing is to strike early.
Report Schraderbrau June 6, 2020 1:02 PM BST
He's handily enough bred for the Derby but if he wins well today then the St. James Palace, a race neither Appleby or Buick have won, which is a prestigious race in itself, would be the obvious option.
Report GAZO June 6, 2020 1:06 PM BST
the horse would go were the owner wants
Report Schraderbrau June 6, 2020 1:09 PM BST
I think the owner would want the best winning chance of a group 1, which if he does win well today, would be the St. James.
Report Schraderbrau June 6, 2020 1:10 PM BST
all conjecture at the moment of course
Report brigust1 June 6, 2020 1:37 PM BST
There is only one Derby. To go to Ascot would not only be pretty quick after today but would rule out Epsom.
Report tanglefoot June 6, 2020 3:46 PM BST
As I suspected,likes more easy in going,will be back on his going
Report hulk23 June 6, 2020 3:49 PM BST
ran a great race according to francesca, i'm guessing she didn't have 44 grand on to win 40 ....
Report howard June 6, 2020 3:49 PM BST
Beaten by a very good miler today. Pinatubo should prefer 10f+ and better ground.
Report carrot1960 June 6, 2020 3:50 PM BST
Hard to figure who was the most tired late on the horse or buick
Report Whippin Piccadilly June 6, 2020 3:51 PM BST
"Better than Frankel" Laugh
Report wondersobright June 6, 2020 3:56 PM BST
Report casemoney June 6, 2020 3:56 PM BST
Every Chance one paced final furlong looked like it didnt stay to me Plain
Report Platini June 6, 2020 4:05 PM BST
Yep, looked more like a non-stayer than a horse that hasn't trained on.
Report metro john June 6, 2020 4:07 PM BST
Tricky race to rate but the time surprisingly good, I got Kameko 127/128 make of that what you will?
Report grendel June 6, 2020 5:05 PM BST
Nonsense, about 115 I reckon ... time was slow side for guineas
Report wondersobright June 6, 2020 5:11 PM BST
Report wondersobright June 6, 2020 5:12 PM BST
kameko 1m 34.72 = fastest time ever recorded in the 2000 guineas
Report grendel June 6, 2020 5:13 PM BST
So what? .... other races were fast too, 1m 4f course record yesterday.... its the times compared to other races that is important.
Report wondersobright June 6, 2020 5:16 PM BST
are you aware its a different course to yesterday & also that its rained since yesterday also?
Report wondersobright June 6, 2020 5:17 PM BST
v few top class races run over 1m 4f on rowley also
Report grendel June 6, 2020 5:18 PM BST
Are you aware that it was only 0.44 secs faster than the 4:10 won by 89 rated horse?
Report grendel June 6, 2020 5:24 PM BST
..... thought not #wondernotsobright
Report brigust1 June 6, 2020 5:26 PM BST
The fav has run faster than that on two occasions before so he may have either not stayed or got tired.
Report wondersobright June 6, 2020 5:27 PM BST
well if you'll let me fkin reply 1st...I am but you have committed your 3rd faux pas in this conversation already by pegging your analysis to 1 other race...if you are wrong about the 4.10pm you are wrong about the guineas too

hint: wait for the sectional times before you make your (bogus) conclusions
Report sageform June 6, 2020 5:33 PM BST
Following wind would have helped but as he didn't get a clear passage, Kameko is capable of knocking another second off that.
Report colonelflay June 6, 2020 5:41 PM BST
LOL. Bookies had a good day, as usual.
Report sageform June 6, 2020 5:45 PM BST
Not really. First and second would have been strong e/w bets on the day. Plenty of other fancied winners.
Report metro john June 6, 2020 5:55 PM BST

Jun 6, 2020 -- 11:26AM, brigust1 wrote:

The fav has run faster than that on two occasions before so he may have either not stayed or got tired.

yes got tired, not putting much faith in the time of the race myself, it was what it was??

Report Number9 June 6, 2020 6:04 PM BST
Is there any difference between "not stayed" and "got tired"?
Report colonelflay June 6, 2020 6:05 PM BST
Yeah and what about a welter of anteposts on the nose? they put the f***ing thing on PAGE OF THE TIMES ON THURSDAY!
Report brigust1 June 6, 2020 6:27 PM BST
Number8 did Stradivarius not stay yesterday or did he get tired?
Report metro john June 6, 2020 6:34 PM BST
The thing which bothers me a little about the form is Wichita?  The sire No Nay Never having some success over a trip one would wrongly think too far?? Will be scratching my head on that. mean rating for front 5 122, median 124, 127 for the winner.
Report hello :-) June 6, 2020 6:50 PM BST
best ever guineas performance , and kameko wasn't stopping

well above average horse , you seen that when it walked past good horses at Newcastle
Report impossible123 June 6, 2020 6:52 PM BST
I think Pinatubo would not have won if the race was over 7f - he just did not pick up and run to the line like previously. Unless something untoward could be found over the next few days or was not as fit as his trainer had thought then I believed others eg Wichita and Kameko (line thro' Positive) had caught up and surpassed him this season.

However, I'm not sure he did not stay 8f on the evidence of his wins in Ireland and The Dewhurst over much softer ground; 6/4 for the The James's Palace Stakes, with 7/4 Wichita.
Report metro john June 6, 2020 7:24 PM BST
Think Nadal in the US looks better than these, before retirement.
Report Number9 June 6, 2020 7:53 PM BST
impossible 123
I'm sure you understand the definition of insanity, but I would be happy to oblige you if you think it doesn't apply to 3yo Pinatubo v 3yo Wichita (nb if by any chance you're considering placing any of your hard-earned on the St James Palace stakes, think very carefully, mate, honestly)
Report Number9 June 6, 2020 7:54 PM BST
Brigusti : you jest.
Report Diff-rent June 6, 2020 11:15 PM BST
I've seen the race on YouTube and they are saying it was a fast run classic.

Personally I will be amazed if the top miler this year ran in that race today. Times have been fast all weekend at Newmarket and the wind was behind them on fresh ground.

Brilliant to see a Balding back on the big stage.

But let's not get to carried away with today's form. As for Pinatubo he ran a solid race but wasn't good enough.
Report impossible123 June 7, 2020 12:24 PM BST
I'll not back him unless he's 5/1 (at least) as I believe others have caught up with him and/or 8f stretches his stamina to breaking point.
Report irishone June 7, 2020 1:01 PM BST
Oh dear Impossible ... you believed Pinatubo was the second coming, pinning your shirt to the mast and raising it high, see if you can learn something from this! your pocket is empty, you have done yer nuts , and you no doubt put up a load of cr4pp on here about the winner . This will not stop you from pontificating about the future however,  despite your reasoning on most subjects being constantly exposed as false. have a good look in the mirror mate and start trying to believe how ugly you look.
Report howard June 7, 2020 1:31 PM BST
Those that question his stamina could be right but I wouldn't be in that camp yet. He is very much bred to get 10 furlongs. He got 7f on soft very well as a 2-y-o. I think he ran a good race yesterday when the quick ground was not ideal.
Report DOUBLED June 7, 2020 2:03 PM BST
I agree Howard ... ran well and probably will improve quite a bit for the run. Think once headed he stayed on all the way to the line and the winner just had a better turn of foot. Would like to see over 10f.
Report Diff-rent June 7, 2020 4:01 PM BST
1000G winner only just slower than the yesterday's winner and you could argue today's times not as fast as yesterday.

So for those boasting about race times yesterday don't go over board please. As for Pinatubo beating Love no chance.
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