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Willie Shafter.
04 Apr 20 20:32
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Date Joined: 15 Jul 04
| Topic/replies: 38,852 | Blogger: Willie Shafter.'s blog
Where iyo would the infection numbers have to be in this country before the lockdown restrictions are lifted and normality returns?
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Report Movewiththetimes April 4, 2020 8:38 PM BST
Below 50 new cases a day imo
Report Movewiththetimes April 4, 2020 8:39 PM BST
Which looks a long way off right now
Report hello :-) April 4, 2020 8:44 PM BST
probably gauged by watching countries ahead of us right now mainly china , they opened cinemas then closed them again quickly recently

way i see it the situation we are in now stemmed from a few infections , so you need to assume it could again from a few infections so would imagine rate would need to be very low


Unless everyone starts getting tested or a phone app or something would declare who is safe now , that would be the big changer

they asked that tonite at press conf and medic couldn't really answer , also couldn't state a plan for exit


no expert but we got another month of this ahead i think
Report fluffchucker April 4, 2020 8:48 PM BST
Unfortunately it seems to have gone past infections, and focused on fatalities.
It does seem to have similarities to the Spanish flu of the First World War and that was worst the following year!
Report sparrow April 4, 2020 8:50 PM BST
The arrival of a vaccine might be a game changer is my guess and that's all anyone is doing.
Report hello :-) April 4, 2020 8:51 PM BST
watched a docu about Spanish flu recently , horrific

one thing i will always remember is the female scientist

said you could line up a 100,000 of these germs and it wouldn't even stretch across your fingernail , made me think anyway
Report Andrew.in.Sweden April 4, 2020 8:56 PM BST
I think it will take longer than many of us think, specially in England.

I'm in Bavaria and was under a 2 week lock-down initially, but now it's been extended to April 19th as a minimum and expected to be extended again, this from an area with only 370 fatalities and far more testing than UK.

I cant see the guineas meeting in early May going ahead.
Report gdrj April 4, 2020 9:00 PM BST
I'm in Ireland,landlords a garda,he said tonight that ,in his opinion,could go on here into the summer,time will tell I suppose.
Report leif April 4, 2020 9:03 PM BST
3 months minimum at a guess.

Cry

Chinese walking around with masks on maintaining social distancing. They are 3 months on after intensive lockdown although they must be a poor model to follow for several reasons.

Italy and Spain a fair way away from normality.

Germany appear to have  handle on it but not out of the woods.

Sweden doing their own thing but may be proven right as to their approach.

A vaccine against a virus that'll probably mutate into several strains at least 12 months away perhaps.

Just have to wait until Boris has squashed the 'sombrero' with his Hungry Hippo Hammer.

early July with a lowish 'active case' situation.

,,,,and then it all kicks off again in the Winter Sad
Report leif April 4, 2020 9:07 PM BST
****Meant to say that china are 3 months on from identifying the Rona
Report themightymac April 4, 2020 9:16 PM BST
When they lift the ban it`s possible that people, living in isolation for so long, will fall into a false sense of safety and head out in their droves and the country will be hit by a second wave.
Report gdrj April 4, 2020 9:31 PM BST
Apologies,didn't read the op properly,regarding numbers.
Personally I don't believe the present numbers given by governments to be accurate. And I don't think we'll ever know. I hope there isn't many more.
Report Willie Shafter. April 4, 2020 11:40 PM BST
so,hypothetical of course,if the countries infections was down to 50 lets say..would you then be happy to carry on as normal?
Report ekbalko April 4, 2020 11:56 PM BST
This goes on till it either dies out or a vaccine is found imo. BTW if a vaccine is found and 20000 people a day were given it,it would take 3000 days to vaccinate the population
Report Willie Shafter. April 4, 2020 11:58 PM BST
your 1st sentence is my only way of thinking.
Report stewarty b April 5, 2020 4:15 AM BST
Personally I don't believe the present numbers given by governments to be accurate



That is indeed correct but of no fault of any government. I'ts literally impossible to tell. ie: In this country alone there are tens of thousands who have it....but don't know it yet.
Report duffy April 5, 2020 4:31 AM BST
Reaching the peak is just the start, once you get to that point there then needs to be a further period of time with the lock down in place in order to let the virus starve itself today so to speak. If we all come out to play again too soon before it's fizzled out it will just breathe new life into it, because of this concern they will err on the side of caution.

Also, the notion of "partial" lifting of restrictions and such like is unworkable, you can't give mixed messages, it's all or nothing and it won't be soon IMO.
Report duffy April 5, 2020 4:38 AM BST
The other thing to consider is that we are all on a lockdown together but we are not all at the same point together regarding infection, this thing is going to improve in some parts as it takes hold in other parts, if you start opening up some parts of the country it will just allow people to travel into and out of infected areas once again.
Report RothmanMike April 5, 2020 4:56 AM BST
Think the Medical experts would have thought of that.
This is a war situation and all eventualities would have been considered by someone or other.
Report Willie Shafter. April 5, 2020 9:01 AM BST
can you answer my opening question please.
Report big aitch April 5, 2020 10:08 AM BST
only someone who has access to the current situation would know when it's safe to go about your usual business, the rest is just speculation Willie and no-one can give you a definitive answer.
Report Willie Shafter. April 5, 2020 10:15 AM BST
H

so,hypothetical of course,if the countries infections was down to 50 lets say..would you then be happy to carry on as normal?
Report big aitch April 5, 2020 12:07 PM BST
I don't know what an acceptable level would be and hope those in authority have a good stab at it
Report big aitch April 5, 2020 12:07 PM BST
Although I am not confident they will.
Report Willie Shafter. April 5, 2020 12:31 PM BST
so,if the authorities got the number of people infected down to 50,then advised everyone to go back to normal,what potentially could be a likely scenario?
Report koikeeper April 5, 2020 12:32 PM BST
If they were down to 50 a day and lifted the lockdown,
it's guaranteed it will kick off again, so many people mixing etc.
Report Willie Shafter. April 5, 2020 12:36 PM BST
correct koi...so,back to my opening question Grin
Report hello :-) April 5, 2020 12:49 PM BST
china were first to have it , and tbh they got themselves incredibly well organised

they are still getting new cases , i think its assumed either vaccine or everyone getting it is only way back to normal tho no one is going to admit that to public

if you thot you would be like this months would you be able to mentally handle it ? esp if your in city

the only reason we are allowed out a bit is they know its only way folk will accept a lot more
Report hello :-) April 5, 2020 12:55 PM BST
Exit strategy
Also on the BBC's Andrew Marr show, Prof Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College London, said he could not predict when the lockdown would be lifted.

He said there was "no point" in releasing the lockdown "at a point where case numbers are still high and will resurge even faster than we have seen before."

Prof Ferguson added: "We want case numbers to get to a low point where we can start substituting other measures for the most intrusive and economically costly aspects of the current lockdown.

"Almost certainly those additional measures will involve massively ramped-up testing, going back to trying to identify contacts of cases and stopping chains of transmission.

"That can only feasibly be done when we have many fewer cases per day than we have at the moment."



that's the latest on exit , long way to go i think sadly
Report stewarty b April 5, 2020 1:03 PM BST
steve doesn't get it. Thick as Mandingo's c0ck.
Report Willie Shafter. April 5, 2020 1:08 PM BST
coming from a tatey who still cant grasp what an av price is on a site he's used for yrs..cringe#.
Report hello :-) April 5, 2020 1:11 PM BST
Scottish chief medic

takes family trip to second home , after telling nation to stay indoors

has to step down
Report stewarty b April 5, 2020 1:20 PM BST
Willie Shafter.
Date Joined: 15 Jul 04
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05 Apr 20 12:08Joined: 15 Jul 04 | Topic/replies: 35,631 | Blogger: Willie Shafter.'s blog
coming from a tatey who still cant grasp what an av price is on a site he's used for yrs..cringe#.




Bearing in mind you had to ask the question in the first place proves your ignorance. btw your brain transplant has been cancelled. The hamster died.
Report koikeeper April 5, 2020 1:52 PM BST
It's not down to us.
How long are they prepared to let the lockdown go on.
The economy will come 1st, so I have no idea of the numbers
But it won't be 0, that's a fact.
Report DOUBLED April 5, 2020 2:01 PM BST
This lock down is not about eradicating the virus. There will not be a point where there is zero infection and we can all get back to "normal". Even if we had a vaccine would take many years to get everyone immunised and the country would be bankrupt.
Report hello :-) April 5, 2020 2:07 PM BST
it has to end sometime that's a given

will need a vaccine , testing or app that increases safety by identifying those who had it

nothing will change until above is available en mass

you also have herd immunity as time passes, a long time under current circumstances , but who wants to go down that route right now  ?

that's the question that will divide us eventually  , whether loss of life is worth return to normal
Report big aitch April 5, 2020 2:08 PM BST
I went around and got the Sunday paper and never realised until I read a piece about it that when I was 3 years old Asian Flu was claiming many lives, glad I wasn't aware of it at the time, my Mum and Dad must have been quite worried.
Report isleham April 5, 2020 2:12 PM BST
The Scottish chief medic's position is totally untenable and should resign/be sacked immediately.
Love it when people talk about a minimum of 50 new cases a day..that will occur sometime on the 2030s so normality will return sooner rather than later( a bit vague) but if you don't fancy your chances stay indoors for ever
Report lord skywalker April 5, 2020 2:17 PM BST
pandemics are likely to happen from time to time because of hygiene in certain countries isnt that strict, china started this pandemic tried to cover up the guy that blew the whistle then he dies and they are still covering up the numbers, china population 1.4 billion only 82k cases USA population 328 million , 311k cases even the uk has more deaths than china but only half the cases
Report impossible123 April 5, 2020 2:47 PM BST
The government of China is a pathological liar. Not much come out of their mouthpiece is not sh1t. And now they are financially rewarded - what a perverse world we are living in?
Report Willie Shafter. April 5, 2020 2:51 PM BST
for once i concur wiv 123.
Report Willie Shafter. April 6, 2020 10:31 AM BST
A..A lockdown is necessary to limit the spread of the virus and save lives, but it is
not feasible or practical to prolong it for too long. A long lockdown will wipe
out large swathes of the economy. There will be a negative impact both
financially and mentally on too many people.

v

B..Some say the lockdown must not end until no-one can infect anyone again and
thus ensure no-one dies.

i understand the implications of both..but,surely B takes priority.
Report hello :-) April 6, 2020 11:07 AM BST
economy v human life

tough one Happy


And no one in world has an exit strategy yet , I read china opened cinemas recently but almost immediately closed them , no reason but obviously infection fears

attendance while open was very low seemingly , so possibly even after exit fear could linger for most anyway in uk
Report Willie Shafter. April 6, 2020 11:09 AM BST
they closed becos they were showing zombie apocalypse.
Report isleham April 6, 2020 11:14 AM BST
if you believe B will be the answer
than you really dont understand this mainly capitalistic world we live in

and Shafter it was only a couple days ago you were posting china as the source of the virus was not proven
make your mind up
Report ooO{Alpha Centauri}Ooo April 6, 2020 11:16 AM BST
A..A lockdown is necessary to limit the spread of the virus and save lives, but it is
not feasible or practical to prolong it for too long. A long lockdown will wipe
out large swathes of the economy. There will be a negative impact both
financially and mentally on too many people.

v

B..Some say the lockdown must not end until no-one can infect anyone again and
thus ensure no-one dies.

i understand the implications of both..but,surely B takes priority.


Morally B, but I think A more likely to sway the decision, there is a point where the failure of the economy totally, deaths through isolation (old people, suicides etc) and civil unrest, mean that the economy has to be started again, certain other groups returning to work (manufacturing first I imagine) and an easing of lockdown measures (which may get more severe first).
Report DOUBLED April 6, 2020 11:19 AM BST
B..Some say the lockdown must not end until no-one can infect anyone again and
thus ensure no-one dies.

Laughcomedy gold
Report FOYLESWAR April 6, 2020 11:20 AM BST
they are saying june ,areas and workers to be released from lockdown with june the target according to a report .
Report penzance April 6, 2020 11:22 AM BST
read that some tigers have tested positive
in a New York zoo.
Didnt know this affected animals aswell.
Man made or natural?
Report isleham April 6, 2020 11:28 AM BST
anyway if anyone thinks the lockdown is bad just watching the film Buried
man buried alive in a coffin in Iraq !!
Report hello :-) April 6, 2020 11:30 AM BST
isleham

virus started in china , source isn't 100% proved

wet markets a possibility but also reports virus started far earlier but logged as pneumonia , also possible bat to animal transfer originally

most of early cases had no connection to Wuhan market , as with everything related to virus we don't yet know everything its only been 3/4 months
Report FOYLESWAR April 6, 2020 11:30 AM BST
uk  losing 2 billion a day
Report Movewiththetimes April 6, 2020 11:55 AM BST
Trump already thinking of getting the people back to work as he knows if they don't America might never recover, 95% recover I guess it's not long before country v dead wood will come in force.
Report hello :-) April 6, 2020 12:01 PM BST
I can believe that

trump just doing his bit to boost markets a little tbh

who would really risk the deaths of god knows how many , I think most now know this is a dangerous enemy and not one to ignore lightly
Report isleham April 6, 2020 12:38 PM BST
hello
just because you hate trump you cant disagree with everything he says/does
thats a totally subjective viewpoint..ofc not saying hes right but..
a broken clock will be right twice a day
Report isleham April 6, 2020 12:41 PM BST
and a few days ago i mentioned australia were managing to stage horse racing
and was told forcibly perhaps they were not taking the virus seriously.
well looking at their graph of new cases,at the moment,they look to have got
their approach very right
Report hello :-) April 6, 2020 1:43 PM BST
I don't hate trump mate i just think he is dangerous and led by vanity also

For the leader of America to encourage severe xenophobia is plain crazy , not what you want or expect from a leader 

whatever your view of virus origins you just cant label an entire nation for the actions of a few , theres enough hate in the world already

America is messed up enough without alienating a further 4 million people
Report Willie Shafter. April 6, 2020 1:48 PM BST
isleham 06 Apr 20 10:14 
if you believe B will be the answer
than you really dont understand this mainly capitalistic world we live in

and Shafter it was only a couple days ago you were posting china as the source of the virus was not proven
make your mind up

show me where i posted this?
Report Willie Shafter. April 6, 2020 1:50 PM BST
DOUBLED 06 Apr 20 10:19 
B..Some say the lockdown must not end until no-one can infect anyone again and
thus ensure no-one dies.

comedy gold

you make plenty criticism dave..whats your solution?
Report hello :-) April 6, 2020 1:50 PM BST
isleham Laugh

nobody disputing country of origin , only location it started mate
Report Willie Shafter. April 6, 2020 1:59 PM BST
even if i did post it..whats got to do with A v B ?
Report chavman April 6, 2020 2:17 PM BST
population density could play a major part in the australian profile in that it has a poulation of just under half of hours with a land mass over 30 times bigger and as such it is much easier to contain the spread.

uk average 710 people per sq m
aus average 3 people per sq m
Report Willie Shafter. April 6, 2020 2:18 PM BST
correct craig.
Report Willie Shafter. April 6, 2020 2:19 PM BST
do the aborigines have testing equipment?
Report Coachbuster April 6, 2020 2:21 PM BST
chavman ..Australia doesn't have much land mass at all ...it's almost as crowded as here   ...it's a huge issue over there
Report Coachbuster April 6, 2020 2:22 PM BST
same would apply to Greenland  if you stuck a few million people there
Report chavman April 6, 2020 2:24 PM BST
2,969,907 sq miles not enough for the cnts?...how much they want for christs sake
Report isleham April 6, 2020 2:26 PM BST
sorry didnt know we couldnt go off piste on a thread (shafter laying down the forum rules now!!!)
and in answer to your aboriginal question my experience would be if alcohol is a deterrant to the
virus they will be ok allegedly
Report chavman April 6, 2020 2:26 PM BST
we only got 93,788 and still won 1 world cup and 2 world wars.
Report howard April 6, 2020 2:28 PM BST
Maybe most animals can catch it. Tigers lions Apes certainly. Domestic cats you would think so. At the moment they are saying we can't catch it from them. Sounds like BS to me.
Report Coachbuster April 6, 2020 2:31 PM BST
2,969,907 sq miles
____________________

lol
Report isleham April 6, 2020 2:31 PM BST
lots of reports throughout europe of dogs with symptoms having exercised in open spaces
Report Coachbuster April 6, 2020 2:33 PM BST
you can't just build a town in the middle of the outback  Laugh
Report chavman April 6, 2020 2:34 PM BST
worryingly social distancing from tigers and apes remains at 2 metres Shocked
Report hello :-) April 6, 2020 2:35 PM BST
very few abos left  , years of persecution and slaughter taken its toll

80/90% wiped out little wonder they take a dram tbh
Report howard April 6, 2020 2:38 PM BST
I suppose dogs could have caught it from asymptomatic owners like tigers/lions at Bronx Zoo apparently did.
Report Willie Shafter. April 6, 2020 2:41 PM BST
isleham 06 Apr 20 10:14
if you believe B will be the answer
than you really dont understand this mainly capitalistic world we live in

and Shafter it was only a couple days ago you were posting china as the source of the virus was not proven
make your mind up


show me where i posted this?
Report isleham April 6, 2020 3:00 PM BST
i see you post on average 6000 times a month and at the moment
you are probably x10 that number so sorry im not spending my days
searching through the topics but you know you did or very close to
that effect
Report EastLower Gooner April 6, 2020 3:06 PM BST
A few of these countries had mass gatherings or completely stupid ideas that has warped the figures

Germany - Smurf invasion (you read that right)
Spain - women’s right March
Italy - had a hug a Chinese person day (you also read that right)
England - Cheltenham, Football, Tube

So let’s see how the lock down goes...infections could start coming down just as fast as they went up.
Report Willie Shafter. April 6, 2020 3:12 PM BST
isleham,stop posting abso nonsense.
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