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04 Apr 20
20:32
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15 Jul 04
Where iyo would the infection numbers have to be in this country before the lockdown restrictions are lifted and normality returns?
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Below 50 new cases a day imo
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Which looks a long way off right now
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probably gauged by watching countries ahead of us right now mainly china , they opened cinemas then closed them again quickly recently
way i see it the situation we are in now stemmed from a few infections , so you need to assume it could again from a few infections so would imagine rate would need to be very low Unless everyone starts getting tested or a phone app or something would declare who is safe now , that would be the big changer they asked that tonite at press conf and medic couldn't really answer , also couldn't state a plan for exit no expert but we got another month of this ahead i think |
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Unfortunately it seems to have gone past infections, and focused on fatalities.
It does seem to have similarities to the Spanish flu of the First World War and that was worst the following year! |
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The arrival of a vaccine might be a game changer is my guess and that's all anyone is doing.
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watched a docu about Spanish flu recently , horrific
one thing i will always remember is the female scientist said you could line up a 100,000 of these germs and it wouldn't even stretch across your fingernail , made me think anyway |
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I think it will take longer than many of us think, specially in England.
I'm in Bavaria and was under a 2 week lock-down initially, but now it's been extended to April 19th as a minimum and expected to be extended again, this from an area with only 370 fatalities and far more testing than UK. I cant see the guineas meeting in early May going ahead. |
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I'm in Ireland,landlords a garda,he said tonight that ,in his opinion,could go on here into the summer,time will tell I suppose.
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3 months minimum at a guess.
 Chinese walking around with masks on maintaining social distancing. They are 3 months on after intensive lockdown although they must be a poor model to follow for several reasons. Italy and Spain a fair way away from normality. Germany appear to have handle on it but not out of the woods. Sweden doing their own thing but may be proven right as to their approach. A vaccine against a virus that'll probably mutate into several strains at least 12 months away perhaps. Just have to wait until Boris has squashed the 'sombrero' with his Hungry Hippo Hammer. early July with a lowish 'active case' situation. ,,,,and then it all kicks off again in the Winter  |
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****Meant to say that china are 3 months on from identifying the Rona
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When they lift the ban it`s possible that people, living in isolation for so long, will fall into a false sense of safety and head out in their droves and the country will be hit by a second wave.
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Apologies,didn't read the op properly,regarding numbers.
Personally I don't believe the present numbers given by governments to be accurate. And I don't think we'll ever know. I hope there isn't many more. |
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so,hypothetical of course,if the countries infections was down to 50 lets say..would you then be happy to carry on as normal?
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This goes on till it either dies out or a vaccine is found imo. BTW if a vaccine is found and 20000 people a day were given it,it would take 3000 days to vaccinate the population
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your 1st sentence is my only way of thinking.
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Personally I don't believe the present numbers given by governments to be accurate
That is indeed correct but of no fault of any government. I'ts literally impossible to tell. ie: In this country alone there are tens of thousands who have it....but don't know it yet. |
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Reaching the peak is just the start, once you get to that point there then needs to be a further period of time with the lock down in place in order to let the virus starve itself today so to speak. If we all come out to play again too soon before it's fizzled out it will just breathe new life into it, because of this concern they will err on the side of caution.
Also, the notion of "partial" lifting of restrictions and such like is unworkable, you can't give mixed messages, it's all or nothing and it won't be soon IMO. |
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The other thing to consider is that we are all on a lockdown together but we are not all at the same point together regarding infection, this thing is going to improve in some parts as it takes hold in other parts, if you start opening up some parts of the country it will just allow people to travel into and out of infected areas once again.
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Think the Medical experts would have thought of that.
This is a war situation and all eventualities would have been considered by someone or other. |
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can you answer my opening question please.
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only someone who has access to the current situation would know when it's safe to go about your usual business, the rest is just speculation Willie and no-one can give you a definitive answer.
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H
so,hypothetical of course,if the countries infections was down to 50 lets say..would you then be happy to carry on as normal? |
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I don't know what an acceptable level would be and hope those in authority have a good stab at it
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Although I am not confident they will.
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so,if the authorities got the number of people infected down to 50,then advised everyone to go back to normal,what potentially could be a likely scenario?
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If they were down to 50 a day and lifted the lockdown,
it's guaranteed it will kick off again, so many people mixing etc. |
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correct koi...so,back to my opening question
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china were first to have it , and tbh they got themselves incredibly well organised
they are still getting new cases , i think its assumed either vaccine or everyone getting it is only way back to normal tho no one is going to admit that to public if you thot you would be like this months would you be able to mentally handle it ? esp if your in city the only reason we are allowed out a bit is they know its only way folk will accept a lot more |
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Exit strategy
Also on the BBC's Andrew Marr show, Prof Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College London, said he could not predict when the lockdown would be lifted. He said there was "no point" in releasing the lockdown "at a point where case numbers are still high and will resurge even faster than we have seen before." Prof Ferguson added: "We want case numbers to get to a low point where we can start substituting other measures for the most intrusive and economically costly aspects of the current lockdown. "Almost certainly those additional measures will involve massively ramped-up testing, going back to trying to identify contacts of cases and stopping chains of transmission. "That can only feasibly be done when we have many fewer cases per day than we have at the moment." that's the latest on exit , long way to go i think sadly |
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steve doesn't get it. Thick as Mandingo's c0ck.
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coming from a tatey who still cant grasp what an av price is on a site he's used for yrs..cringe#.
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Scottish chief medic
takes family trip to second home , after telling nation to stay indoors has to step down |
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Willie Shafter.
Date Joined: 15 Jul 04 Add contact | Send message 05 Apr 20 12:08Joined: 15 Jul 04 | Topic/replies: 35,631 | Blogger: Willie Shafter.'s blog coming from a tatey who still cant grasp what an av price is on a site he's used for yrs..cringe#. Bearing in mind you had to ask the question in the first place proves your ignorance. btw your brain transplant has been cancelled. The hamster died. |
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It's not down to us.
How long are they prepared to let the lockdown go on. The economy will come 1st, so I have no idea of the numbers But it won't be 0, that's a fact. |
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This lock down is not about eradicating the virus. There will not be a point where there is zero infection and we can all get back to "normal". Even if we had a vaccine would take many years to get everyone immunised and the country would be bankrupt.
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it has to end sometime that's a given
will need a vaccine , testing or app that increases safety by identifying those who had it nothing will change until above is available en mass you also have herd immunity as time passes, a long time under current circumstances , but who wants to go down that route right now ? that's the question that will divide us eventually , whether loss of life is worth return to normal |
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I went around and got the Sunday paper and never realised until I read a piece about it that when I was 3 years old Asian Flu was claiming many lives, glad I wasn't aware of it at the time, my Mum and Dad must have been quite worried.
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The Scottish chief medic's position is totally untenable and should resign/be sacked immediately.
Love it when people talk about a minimum of 50 new cases a day..that will occur sometime on the 2030s so normality will return sooner rather than later( a bit vague) but if you don't fancy your chances stay indoors for ever |
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pandemics are likely to happen from time to time because of hygiene in certain countries isnt that strict, china started this pandemic tried to cover up the guy that blew the whistle then he dies and they are still covering up the numbers, china population 1.4 billion only 82k cases USA population 328 million , 311k cases even the uk has more deaths than china but only half the cases
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