Racing to returm May 1st.

My presumption is that the lockdown is to reduce (not eliminate) transmission and the consequential hospital take up. When the numbers requiring hospitalisation reduce then the argument for the easing of lockdown becomes more clear. However, there is every chance that the cycle will recommence unless we've learnt how to live safely in this new world.

I agree that the same amount of people are going to die whichever way they did it, but, with the herd immunity approach, there would be another bunch of people that would die from the virus that would have survived if the staff hadn't been over-run.

At the moment it is plateauing simply because the virus is running out of victims due to the lock down, once the lock down is released it will have a new stream of people to infect, but this is unavoidable, all we can do is enable the stream of infected be funneled through the hospitals at a manageable rate and if and when they die let it be down to the fact that everything was able to be done to save them and not because the staff were completely knocked over by it.

the pies has got to the crust of the problem.

out future over next few months,wks till vaccine will be about keeping infections under NHS capacity

apps and testing may make that easier possibly

ben96 12 Apr 20 16:58 

Apr 12, 2020 -- 4:35PM, ItsMeSwaddle wrote:

' ............Is it also a fact theoretically after 15 days if you haven't shown symptoms you either haven't got it or the effects were that mild you didnt notice?....Say you become ill after 14 days...what is the max period you can take to perish or beat the virus?IE is it possible to have the virus for 17 odd days and still be unwell?So theoretically if after 17 days thats 1 month...making it pointless to use a lockdown for more than a 30 day period?
-------------------

This is what I cant understand the lockdown should now be having more of an affect than it is.

--------------

Not YET - ben96

Deaths reported today - are actually from up to a few days AGO - as Post-Mortems can, and are, involved in many cases.

Somebody reported as a Death today = Died 3 or 4 days ago

They could/would have been in hospital for a week/10 days/a fortnight -

- previous to hospital admission, more than likely, had a minimum, of a rough week to 10 days at home (as in the Prime Minister, classic case) -

- been infected from a low of 5 days up to around 14 days BEFORE that period -

- so people reported as a DEATH TODAY - would have actually BEEN INFECTED around a minimum  30 to 40 days ago.

Less than that time-span will be the Exception, rather than the Rule.

The Lockdown has only been in place for 20 days, tomorrow.

that 1.04 is still 12L clear with 10yds to run.

Ok theoretically what is the maximum or are you saying there isnt one.

1.05*

dont get 4% with the Halifax steve

mark,im not sure i'd take 1000 yes.

nobody can possibly know swad

another month for infections to drop sufficiently then what , it will never ever be eradicated so todays statistics are a possibility again down the line

until most of uk have had it i imagine then life will be easier

if deaths from covid are say minimum 1% , we have 10,000 so that would suggest a million infected , population 68 million

i made that up tbh but its not worst theory in world , but if anywhere even remotely close to truth theres a long way to go to keep NHS capacity manageable

so,statisically without a lockdown potentially 600,000 deaths

who knows willie just a guess from me there , know way of knowing , would just say too many deaths imo and certiainly no way NHS could cope

we are in management phase now , be a while getting it down , or on off lockdown to stay on top tho how that works is anyones guess

i wouldnt like to be the one to make the call.

Bound to be watching the US Trumps going to do something stupid and open the US on may 1st,then we will see..

he will, they are **** it.

Apr 12, 2020 -- 2:24PM, Willie Shafter. wrote:

so,statisically without a lockdown potentially 600,000 deaths

That's roughly what the Imperial College model was saying before lockdown was implemented (think it was 520,000).

The Economist saying there’s a major rift in the cabinet behind the scenes.

Apparently that sunak Asian chancellor dude didn’t expect lockdown to cost as much as it is and you could say he’s turning whiter by the hour.
Somebody got to pay for the big state subsidy and austerity been tried already only tax hikes really left and the tories balk at those.

So I wouldn’t rule out racing coming back earlier than you might have thought behind closed doors obvs.

turning white by the hour

that comment for some reason reminds me of a comment on a snooker match someone posted on here few years back,
there was a televised match and rory mcleod the bearded chap was playing, and god he was really slow, worse than steady eddie , anyway on the forum someone said
"im sure rory was clean shaven when this match started", very simple but i still chuckle when i remember it

Spain happy to gradually release the lockdown on 517 deaths yesterday, sounds feckin crazy to me, will be interesting watching the numbers next few weeks.

a desperately fragile economy depending on summer tourism
trying to save their people from endless poverty
anyway isnt there hot spot madrid so the costas fine to visit

Don't really matter when the lock up ends,as soon as we are free to roam everyone will get it in some form this is about slowing the spread not stopping it altogether........

Lockdown another 4 weeks, Closed doors more Like June the 1st ,The virus is not going anywhere

and Vaccine could be a year away , buy your masks while you can

Tourism is important in Spain but in Phuket it employs 90% of the population apparently.

So I wouldn’t rule out racing coming back earlier than you might have thought behind closed doors obvs.

plenty 20's available.

dusty, are you implying that racing will solve the budget deficit on its own? I expect racing to be one of the very last things to resume. The media, rightly or wrongly, have got it in for us after Cheltenham (they seem to have ignored Uttoxeter, Kelso and Ireland carrying on for another 5 days). Cheltenham and Aintree are the only jumping meetings the general media have heard of.

1.04 is as free as the birds..doent anywun bet certs anymore?

remember when the eyes of the world were on Italy

now these eyes are on the uk and our Government given the situation developing here

talk is now about a second wave , no chances will be taken this is well under control and that 100% wont be in 2 weeks

even racing is starting to look at compensation over revenue now i think

Yes 46.0

No 1.02

101 cases showing virus for the second time.

1.01
but they have been beaten before

Yes 50.0

No 1.01

adge • April 13, 2020 7:28 PM BST
1.01
but they have been beaten before

Not this time though Alan!

Hope you are well!

bored , bored , bored mafia....I don't expect to be working again this year..

Giggs, i heard about that on 5live radio last night, I am not sure if it was the uk or not but the  " Expert " at

the time said there were cases of people having it Twice.

adge • April 13, 2020 7:36 PM BST
bored , bored , bored mafia....I don't expect to be working again this year..

We all are Alan, I see no end to it all!

Stay safe!

thegiggilo 12 Apr 20 22:24 
Bound to be watching the US Trumps going to do something stupid and open the US on may 1st,then we will see..Shocked


There will be fireworks tonight in the PC with Trump declaring that he's been "fretting over Fauci for a while" in the wake of the 36 year director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases claim that U.S. were too slow to act.!!

Just watched this alternative take on  goings on, good luck all is all I can say.   https://youtu.be/HB00mLArYBQ

i think that was in korea Glasgow , incidences of getting it a second time appearing

also seen scientist saying its wrong to assume you can only get it once as so little is known about how long immunity lasts for

Also covid are showing false negatives when tested as well,so unless people are tested twice long term it will all be a waste of time opening anything up too early..

South Korea has reported that at least 116 people initially cleared of the new coronavirus have tested positive again.

Officials are looking into the cause of the apparent relapses but Jeong Eun-kyeong, director of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), says the virus may have been reactivated rather than the patients being re-infected.

Dogs will come back 1st

It seems far wiser men than me have plotted the course, Good luck all and I mean it, I bow to my masters!

I have come around to you thinking, do i get the vaccine if I get the app and passport? any help please?

Well folks I see no reason or alternative on show,  and universe please prevent it, that second wave or even third I hear our hearts say.

we think you will be immune to it after catching it but we cant be certain , just seen scientist say that , coincidently

and tiger is right also it may have been a flare up if your system never got fully rid of it first time

as with most things virus no one knows for sure


macron taking no chances tho , extended lockdown till 11th may , gatherings and restaurants june or july

You seen the video Hello?

have they weighed in yet please?

no john what one mate ?

watching the video this could be a long punishment - https://youtu.be/HB00mLArYBQ

before Enlightenment.

If this goes wrong????Adult only viewing and no depressives please CW

Far right on the growth in Germany? man they can organize

but no Government call the tune did they?

Could the far right in USA, the nuts not the humanists capitalists, could they give it up?

I must stop this kind of viewing. keep smiling

1.01 to back this morning, where's the 1.2 gone!

Sageform

No racing is just a drop in the ocean, but all industries essentially exist in their own universe.
To racing, racing matters and so will look to re start as soon as possible.
I think it will re-start in Ireland first. When your GDP is largely built on the lowest common denominator of being a tax haven then it suggests they are pretty desperate.

The emphasis will shift. We all know the rhetoric of politicians saying things like ‘there is no price on life’ is illogical due to ring fencing of financing the likes of the NHS but everyone still nods their heads when they say it.
At some point the economics will take over.
Trump has already shown he worships the stock market while being in denial.

This covid-19 will go down as the biggest scandal that has hit the western societies in a generation. The numbers of fatalities arn’t transparent, governments were found to be incompetent, PPE stock was insufficient and all because the race to the bottom left the governments incapable of sufficiently confining the virus and the private sector fell on its arse leading to big state policy having to save the day.
I don’t entirely trust China’s figures, but compared to what the results will ultimately look like in the free world they will look total success.

Wise words dusty.

I don’t believe China’s fatalities for one second, and I don’t think we will ever know their true number. Could easily be tens of thousands.

Can't believe our fatalities either ...

av telts yas..me ma telts iz when i was born,son,believe nothing you read or told..and everything you see..

you waint gan far rong.

me ma waz rite.

still plenty wun o wun their if you got spair funds.

Weighed in weighed in

Weighed in weighed in

The public sector is the one which fell on its arse in this country.

Germany, with its private hospitals and private labs, has performed 4 times as many tests as the UK's Nationalized Health Service. Meanwhile, our Nationalized Health Service is still refusing point-blank to use the UK's private labs. And it can't even organize protective gear for its vast staff, while refusing to allow individual hospitals to order their own.

Just like in China, the UK public sector doesn't seem to care how many lives are sacrificed in the cause of socialism.

Defo no racing 1st May, weighed in:

https://www.racingpost.com/news/coronavirus/bha-extends-suspension-of-racing-in-britain-with-no-date-set-for-sports-return/431695

With German Racing coming back first of May, 1.8 about UK in June seems reasonable.







post me bet, ta

still not settled

Apr 15, 2020 -- 3:05PM, Willie Shafter. wrote:

still not settled

Clean out the couple of quid at 250s?

Might send the message fru.

im not that despo for a fiver

Twenny two bob available to the naked eye.

im not sure i'd be @rsed locking 2 grand per fiver up for over 2 weeks either

tis as free as it gets..so was the 1.2

Stance on

8/11 YES
13/10 NO

JUNE?

Apr 15, 2020 -- 4:10PM, elise wrote:

im not sure i'd be @rsed locking 2 grand per fiver up for over 2 weeks either

No sorry thats not right.

Officially weighed in.

Screaming gone stir crazy on lockdown

The NHS misses targets all year round under the tories’ piecemeal attempts at privatising it while underfunding to required levels.
The point is the tory government are shambolic and we’re ill prepared.
They have sold so much to the private sector that they can only resort to playing cap and fiddle (just like when their are worker disputes the government have no say in the outcome)
Trump threatened 3M to stop selling PPE to Britain, among other countries so gathering resources became sporadic.

Had it not been for big state policy half the country would be already sacked and destitute.
The trains, which were already failing and being nationalised one by one are now effectively nationalised, with busses and perhaps even air travel
Industry (what’s left of it) like British Steel could easily have to be nationalised.
Utilities have been capped (Milliband was scoffed at when he said do it, this happened before the virus)

Wholesale private sector workers including self employed bailed out by the state to tune of 350bn because we saw the cut of the private sectors gib.
All dandy while profits can be stripped, but as soon as the workers are forced to stop those who have ran off with the money feel no responsibility towards those who did the work and abandoned them to the state.

The homeless were found homes within a few days too.
The whole tory ideology fell flat. There’s a tory government in power with barely a tory policy.
Even before the virus dishevelled de pfeffel proposed ‘levelling up and ‘one nation’ politics (who knows what the would have been we won’t be seeing it now) which itself implied Keynesian economics which isn’t tory either.

The first job boris has after having his life saved by the NHS is to tell the nation he’s begging Brussels for an extension in negotiations, he has until end of July, if he is brave we crash out...add that to an economy that’s shrank perhaps 25%

No sorry thats not right.

Officially weighed in.

let me know if they pay out before 23:59 on may 1st

mee too.

dustybin 16 Apr 20 05:51 
Screaming gone stir crazy on lockdown

The NHS misses targets all year round under the tories’ piecemeal attempts at privatising it while underfunding to required levels.
The point is the tory government are shambolic and we’re ill prepared.
They have sold so much to the private sector that they can only resort to playing cap and fiddle (just like when their are worker disputes the government have no say in the outcome)

were & there.


disappointed gray..not often there are holes to pick

Willie I know you keep asking how many are coming into Heathrow each day well I can now tell you around 15,000 untested.

Excellent post dustybin and the very best I have seen on here during this crisis.

Aye WS
Sometimes I’m ahead of myself and miss the sitters

elise 16 Apr 20 06:19 
No sorry thats not right.

Officially weighed in.

let me know if they pay out before 23:59 on may 1st

PAID OUT PAID OUT

THREAD CLOSED.

wd steve, how much you managed to bag ?

2100.

July 1 st is up now

No argument that Boris Johnson is the most left-wing Prime Minister this country has ever elected (or ever will elect).

It certainly explains why we've been left at the mercy of an ideologically-driven, shambolic Nationalized Health Service, in contrast to the private hospitals and labs of, for example, Germany.

It also explains the insane socialist bailing out of every failing "business" in the country, with half the country living the life of Riley on 80% wages while poor sods in supermarkets, care homes and hospitals have to labour on.

I'm guessing a lot of those on 80% would rather be grafting than sitting on their hands...

Possibly. But they're not.

Yes 11kv, I would much rather be working than those on furlough with a very likely possibility they will not have a job to return to at the end of this.

SFBTW, the government has no other option, it is cheaper than letting this people go on the dole.

If businesses folding and workers losing their jobs means that loans and mortgages and rent wouldn't get paid, then let the banks and the landlords take the hit, not the shelf-stacker paying income tax.

This is going to be 2008 all over again, with businesses and households and landlords who refused to put money aside in the good times retaining their assets and their artificially inflated valuations.

Those who do the right thing - put money aside for the bad times, or continue in poorly paid essential jobs - will still find themselves frozen out of decently priced housing at the end of it.

That, to me, is what nationalizing industries and socialism always turn out to be about. Keeping the comfy in the life they're accustomed to, and keeping the workers down there in their place.

SFBTW, the government has no other option, it is cheaper than letting this people go on the dole.

Well, we're conducting a hell of an experiment to find out. For £350 billion you could give every man, woman and child in the country 6 grand.

What surprises me is that online orders can be transported from one end of the country to the other with no restrictions while private drivers are fined for going 10 miles from home. Any sort of van or lorry delivery seems fine if what passes my window is typical. 90% of traffic apart from farm tractors and landrovers are delivering things.

Not sure it is cheaper week by week with the average furlough getting around £15000 compared to unemployment at less than half that. It should be easier to get back to normal though.

Depends on whether you want to get back to normal, with homeownership impossibly unaffordable for nurses, and pretend businesses in shiny premises being subsidized by zero-percent interest rates.

A few months with thousands not paying rent to landlords would solve the first problem, and men in suits being forced to face the consequences of setting up a "business" with no plan for an unforeseen event would free up resources in the second.

my universal credit been sorted in 6 days..very suprised.