Good afternoon Guys and Girls on a pleasant and mild day in München.

Not a bad day for this thread with the lay and Sunday thought selections, although the latter was limited due to time constraints in Sweden (arrived back last night and with my bag this time).

Today is my first full day back in the office since early December (been in for sporadic periods) and as a consequence a little busy playing catch up, so no lay selection today.

Lay selection summary

After the 2 NR’s in the race (one of them the 2nd favourite) I was obviously concerned by a weaker field, but in the end my decision to not cancel the post was the correct one. I’ve had NR’s in lay selection races before on both threads and didn’t cancel then, so if only for clarity it was the logical route to follow.

In the race itself Mymilan (6/4f) raced prominently, seemed to jump OK and looked to be going well 2 fences out (must have been short IR) but he did weaken in the last half furlong. I suspect the run from the last fence (last two omitted due to low sun) was a long slog in heavy going and he was simply outstayed by a much more experienced rival (beaten 2L). The winner actually did it well, coming from a long way back and was very game at the finish (must have been high odds IR). Although Mymilan finished 2nd, with the two NR’s in the field he could have effectively been 4th, but it didn’t matter in the end anyway.

A perfect start to 2020 with 3/3 lays and 11 successful from the last 12. PL table up later this evening.

Sunday thoughts summary (original text in italics)

Although it's Sunday the Kelso card is not too bad and there's even a class 3 handicap on the AW dross at Southwell, but the better meeting is over at the Emerald Isle courtesy of Punchestown with a couple of graded races.

Going back to Southwell, Angel Lane could win the best race on the card even though she's up in class and 6 lb higher than LTO. I mentioned this one on my first lay post of the year and she won well enough, although the runner up has been beaten since and she does have a tendency to hang right on the run for home (IR players take note). She's improved significantly for racing on the fibresand and i think she can win again, but for my Sunday shortie (currently 2/2) i have selected a runner over the jumps.

Angel Lane (2/1) was beaten fair and square by a better horse (well backed favourite). She did hang to the right again as she had in previous races (it didn’t make any difference to the result) and although she ran well enough, there were no excuses.

Cheddleton (Kelso 1.25) won very easily LTO (eased down) and will love the going, On paper it appears to be a 2 horse race and Jabbaar will not be a push over, but i was surprised to see the latter was favourite earlier.

My Sunday shortie Cheddleton won at 4/6 (3/3 this year). He was a bit keen early, but raced up with the pace and soon settled into a nice rhythm. Made a mistake at the last, but it didn’t really unbalance him and he pulled away on the run-in to win by 4L. He can win again. I stated I was surprised to see Jabbaar favourite at time of posting (Cheddletoin was 2.5) but the latter was well backed all afternoon. This race was a good for me as I also selected Jabbaar as my lay on Stridings competition, but i’m not doing that well and needed a result (and quite a few more similar).

Andy Dufresne should win at Punchestown to strengthen Gordon Elliotts Cheltenham Supreme Novice challenge (as if he needs it) but it will be priced accordingly.

Andy Dufresne won (8/15f) albeit possibly by courtesy of a mistake at the last by his main rival, although I doubt he will be running in the Supreme at Cheltenham as Gordon intimated before the race. Although it was a close finish, the two did pull well away from the field and will win races, but I doubt we saw a Cheltenham 2020 festival winner.

Good luck and have a nice Monday all.

Early Morning Riser,

Early Morning Riser      12 Jan 20 13:28

Andrew, your lay is fancied by another tipster today. This is what he writes.

MYMILAN 2.30 Kelso

Maiden pointer (placed once on heavy ground and in second place when falling on heavy again on another from 5 starts) who was picked up cheaply by shrewd connections.

Given four hurdle outings (50/1 + in all four) before exploiting a ridiculous opening handicap mark of just 89 on handicap chase debut over 2 miles.

That was over an inadequate 2 miles and today's trip, just shy of 3 miles, looks sure to suit this very lightly raced son of Milan and he can go in again with a clear round off just 95.

Smart trainer with handicap chasers, especially in winter N/H season with a phenomenal record of 30 winners from 147 starts a ROI of 53.7% profit to SP. 23 of those 30 winners are since 2016 (26% strike rate with A/E 1.5 and 67% ROI)

Thank you for posting the above. It’s odd how race readers can have such an opposing opinion on something based on fact and there in Black and White. I appreciate the tipsters point of view (all valid) but much of my reasoning was not what he achieved as a P2P and hurdler, but as a chaser. He had only jumped 5 fences in public (7 omitted due to low sun) in a novice chase LTO on chase debut. Whilst he won well enough (by just over a length) he was upped in trip by 7.5f, racing against much more experience chasers (not a novice race) and on a track with completely differing characteristics and fences. I certainly didn’t see him as a 6/4 bet even after the 2 NR’s. Having said that, the games all about opinions, i got it right yesterday, but in future he/she will in similar circumstances.

Whilst i deal with figures in my work, i'm not really a stats guy for horse racing, although i respect those that use them. 30 winners in 147 starts is indeed impressive, but as a layer, they can also be interpreted as 117 losers in 147 starts.  

Happysandwich,

happysandwich         12 Jan 20 14:53 

Well done Andrew,

Looked all over the winner before it started wandering about in the last furlong.

....and with Jabbaar - 1.25 Kelso in Striding’s Lay comp.

Thank you.

I agree he looked the winner with 2 fences to jump, but he wasn’t really wandering, although finishing tired and was simply outstayed after what was  a long slog on heavy going after the last.

G Hall,

G Hall        12 Jan 20 10:49   

Thanks for posting Andrew I always enjoy reading about your jet setting life, and of course your bets.

Thank you.

I’m not sure a return trip to Sweden once a month (occasionally twice) constitutes jet-setting, but I do enjoy it and treat it as a mini vacation. I’m very well travelled anyway, seen all 6 continents and worked in 3 of them; several countries in Europe, but also Brasil and Indonesia on opposing sides of the world. Although I love the lifestyle (and more so my work) it wouldn’t suit everyone. Being an engineering nomad has positives, but downsides too, specially with families, uprooting children from schooling (not my daughter) moving from friends and family in UK, dealing with foreign cultures and languages, food, a high divorce rate, not knowing where you will be next year etc, although the latter is actually exciting to a degree (at least to me) even though I guess I will still be in Sweden/Germany. I was actually offered a consultancy contract with Mitsubishi Aerospace (MITAC) in Nagoya Japan last year, but I turned it down, i’m happy enough where I am for the time being.

and the daughter  ,,dont forget her please,,,

Good evening Guys and Girls.

Lay P/L Status

Current Progress	3/3
Running Form	WWW
Daily Profit	£50
Running P/L	+£150

Andrew, did you see who posted on it

Joined: 26 Mar 19
| Topic/replies: 3,568 | Blogger: mymumsfinethankyou's blog
listen a bit of advice for you pal,, get a job wages in hand,, sign on at the same time ,,but tell no one,, credits all payed,, no tax to pay,, i did it all my life,,  and everything is free,, they even give you a bus pass free in scotland[  to get to interviews]  i use it to get to work,, money in hand work,,,

mymumsfinethankyou 25 Nov 19 20:42   
feck do what i did,, refuse all work,,,  only work when money in hand,,,[  done it for 40 years,, but keep signing  on ,, either the dole  or sickness bebefit,,,stamps all still paid,,, yabba dabba do,,,when im asked what i do for a living,, i tell anyone  ,,, im an artist[  i draw the dole,,,


He never told us he was Banksy mkII.

and phack the tele licence as well..

travel up to scotland twice a week with the **** for the kids,,,  bank manager is wondering where all the money is coming from,,,  i tell him im a gambler , and winning thousands,,  happy days,,,

Early Morning Riser,

Thank you for posting. It's not a surprise, but the guy is so proud of being a liar and a benefit cheat he actually advertises it on a public forum (not the sharpest pencil in the box). I suspect some of it is exaggerated anyway to gain attention and provoke responses, but irrespective of this, it shows he's a loser in life, and hasn't achieved anything worthwhile. Each to their own.

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mymumsfinethankyou
mymumsfinethankyou

To: Andrew.in.Sweden

hi andrew pal
Jan 14, 09:11AM
if you have me blocked ,, how is it you are accepting this pm ,,your telling porkies andrew

These characters display predatory characteristics which is somewhat creepy.  I wonder if their families really know what content they are churning-out, day in, day out !!!

ohh forgot , happy new year not been on here for ages ,  but dont worry i will no doubt be around a little more ,

Kemo Sabe, you need help, your delusional, a fantasist and suffering from ''The Dunning-Kruger effect'' plus your a throbber

^^^^

"plus you're a throbber"

Is that a ‘tea leaf’ with a lisp ?

A quite pathetic individual is Kemo, unreal that these people exist!

Please don't make things up Mumsy - you're lying again!

... Correct Trusty.

Yep agree

kemo sabe   
kemo sabe
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Member Since: 13 Sep 03
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cardenden   
cardenden
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mymumsfinethankyou   
mymumsfinethankyou
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can you explain yr decision to start another thread coincided with my posting yr actual  losses both on yr lay a day and yr chasing with other even multipuls ,

i assume you just thought ok ive failed so lets forget that and  take a few weeks  and then it does two things it gets rid of kemo posting the totality of my losses   and gives him a chance to re invent himself ;

he says its now a success ive no idea as i said  ive not read the thread  since it started,, if he hadnt posted on the petition i wdnt have noticed him ;

live and let live is how i live my life