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Andrews' New Random Day Lay Thread
Andrews' New Random Day Lay Thread
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Good morning Andrew. No I haven't followed all of your 'lays' because I have not always been around. For this reason I have not followed them religiously because, knowing my luck, I would miss the wrong ones, if you get my meaning? I am impressed with your reasoning though and the point I raised was merely a discussion piece. I have my rules and I do try to stick to them but I am a punter and stray sometimes. As I have been known to say to my wife on occasion 'it is only an observation not a criticism'.
Keep up the good work. |
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No specific rules relating to the reasoning that generally concentrates on weight/rating, going, trip and course et all, pretty much as most of us would do.
Good morning gents I know you don't use them Andrew, but what are your views on speed ratings? |
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Laurie
Thanks  Nick I rarely use them in the lay post reasoning, but i do read Simon Rowlands sectional blogs occasionally (not so much Lawrence Taylor speed figures). I'm not sure speed ratings are significantly beneficial, but to be honest i'm not the best person to ask. I was all over Ten Sovereigns as a 2 year old and i mentioned on my first thread his sectionals were very good. He ran to a group race standard on debut ! |
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Lay Post
Ludlow 2.10 - Dustin Des Motles A 7 year old Kapgarde gelding trained by Dr. Richard Newland in Clains, Worestershire. Winner of 3 hurdles and a chase in France (2016-2018) prior to being transferred to the current stable. Last win was in June 2018. Since then a maiden in 9 races, 8 of them chases, generally over 18f/20f. Ran OK in his penultimate race (18f/class 3) although the form has been let down by the winner in 2 subsequent runs. Ran off a mark of 128 and was raised 4 lb to 132 for the effort, but disappointed LTO (20f/class 3) finishing well down the field. Dropped a pound since. Consistent, running off marks in a range of 128-134 since his first run on these shores. Best runs have been on soft and may be the going could be a little too lively for him. Ludlow favours the speedy types that i don't see this one is, additionally dropping back in trip that i also don't think is a positive. First time headgear. A total of 6 runners, but only 3 have a realistic chance of winning notwithstanding fallers of course. His main rivals include winner of this in 2017 and the other who receives 17 lb (on ratings). The risk is if he reproduces his penultimate run down in trip and on a sharper course, but i feel his task is not easy against a couple of others who are in much better form. I think he needs a little help from the handicapper to pick up his first win over here. Lay @ 3.05. Good luck all. 23-Nov-20 10:21:22 14:10 Ludlow Dustin Des Mottes - 2m Hcap Chs Betfair Bet ID 1:217464698078 | Matched: 23-Nov-20 10:30:00 Lay 3.05 50.00 -- 102.50 50.00 Matched |
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WD Andrew and thanks for the reply.
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Thanks Andrew
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Well done Andrew,
Never looked like winning the race all the way around. |
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WD Andrew.
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Many thanks for the comments Guys, much appreciated.
I'm working remote (home) today, so i connected my laptop to the TV (via HDMI) and watched the BF/LV. Beaten from some way out and although this was a class 3 race he will need more help from the handicapper and a longer trip over a galloping course aka Ascot to get a win out of him. |
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well done Andrew, another good pick
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Macintoshmatty
Thank you, i wish all my lay selections ran like this one did.  |
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Good morning Guys.
RP report Paul Nicholls has announced the retirement of Laurina after the star mare bled following her disappointing debut for her new yard in the Coral Hurdle at Ascot on Saturday. Laurina joined Nicholls this summer following a fine tenure with Willie Mullins, during which she won seven races including a Grade 1 and an easy success in the mares' novice hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. Sent off the 11-8 favourite at Ascot, Laurina was never travelling under Harry Cobden and eventually finished 46 lengths behind the winner Song For Someone. Owned by Jared Sullivan, Laurina will now go to the Tattersalls Ireland sale on December 14. Not a total surprise, but sad nevertheless. Changing the subject, i noticed another ex-Sullivan Bloodstock/PN horse Getareason was beaten at Kempton yesterday. |
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Lay Post
Chelmsford 5.30 - Ayr Harbour A 3 year old Harbour Watch colt trained by Michael Appleby in Oakham, Rutland. Dam was a two time winner on turf. A couple of offspring, both producing wins. Overall win record of 3/13, but all wins on AW (from 8 runs). Started 2020 well enough winning his first couple of races, but then didn’t show much next time out in a class 2 race and form tailed off somewhat thereafter. Returned to AW after 5 runs on the turf (not as proficient) winning LTO (off a mark of 80) in a 7 runner class 4 handicap at Southwell. Won well, but from those that have run since, the 2nd, 3rd, 6th and 7th have all been beaten. Has run off marks ranging between 74 and 84, highest winning mark is 80 (sand). Best win on Polytrack was off a mark of 77. The handicapper has raised him 7lb (to 87) for the win, so needs to produce his best performance. Up in grade and never won in class 2. A small field of 6 runners, but an open handicap and none of the field can be ignored. I think The Gill Brothers can win, but it’s not a backing race in my opinion. The risk is a good AW record and he did win well enough LTO (albeit lower class) but can he reproduce his previous run (on sand) back on a polytrack surface at Chelmsford (never run there before) against mostly better runners. Lay @ 3.30 Good luck all. 26-Nov-20 16:30:25 17:30 Chelmsford City Ayr Harbour - 1m Hcap Betfair Bet ID 1:217755289362 | Matched: 26-Nov-20 16:30:26 Lay 3.30 50.00 -- 115.00 50.00 Matched |
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Agree with this, looked too short earlier given that it's up in class and its win last time could be expected given that it had put in some poor turf runs to get the mark down. I've backed War Glory in the 2TBP market.
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Pulled hard and traded out to >21, exactly the same as Ghalyoon in the previous race, but both were in the right place at the line!
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Just logged on to forum, I layed it too
Appelbys horses seem to have sprung back to life today Mohareb backed and ran really well earlier on the card New carrots?? |
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for the class of race the time was comparatively slow compared to the three previous races, confirming the visual impression that they had crawled and was why they were in a heap at the finish.
There appeared to be quite a gamble on Franny's mount, and I would say he got the fractions wrong as I doubt a sprint would be any good to Mosakhar, who seems to stay a mile strongly when he's in form. |
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 Thanks for the comments guys. I didn't see the race, i got the result from bitbybit. Apparently didn't settle and 55 IR. Got it wrong. |
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This is exactly what happens with my lays, that's why I suggest backing at 50 IR, especially when there's 20% or more of the race left.
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Good morning guys from a miserable looking, fog bound West München.
So much for my previous lay selection, disappointing to say the least i thought i was back on a roll. Reading another thread it went 55 IR (albeit a small stake) so i thought it must have been out the back, but after watching the VR i was surprised, those odds were way too high. To be honest i think he was probably a 10/1 shot at very best after failing to settle for several furlongs (ran keen). Even at the furlong pole it looked as though he was going to be caught by several, but to his credit stayed on well with the first 5 home covered by a length. C'est la vie, no excuses, i simply got it wrong, but i hate losing on the P/L selections. OK we move on and a good afternoon for NH followers at least (regular readers know i'm not a fan of the AW) with the Hennessy Cognac Gold (3.00) cup being the primary highlight. I know it's the Ladbrokes trophy these days, but i'm a traditionalist and i suspect many on here still refer to the race as it's former title. The roll call of previous winners is like reading a history of horse racing, Mandarin, Arkle, Mill House, Burrough Hill Lad, One Man, Teeton Mill and the fabulous Denman to name a few. Not bad for a Grade 3 handicap. I doubt there's anything in the field that will go on to the heights achieved by the notable list above, but this doesn't detract that it's a decent race. Trying to find the winner is akin to looking for sh*t in a cuckoo clock, but i think there's an EW bet at profitable odds in Potterman (currently 18 on here). Consistent, only 5 times out of the places in 22 races, winning 8 (and 6 seconds) and the trip is ideal for this strong stayer. Has been running well since racing resumed with form figures of 0-2-1-2-2. His BHA rating is now 147, but runs off a mark of 142 so is effectively 5 lb well in, additionally is 6 lb better off with the fancied Secret Investor for a 7L beating in his penultimate run. I managed to post Coole Cody (BSP 15) winner of the big handicap a couple of weeks ago, hopefully i can do the same with this one as it's my last realistic chance in the daily naps competition. The WPM runners transferred to Paul Nicholls this season haven't been performing that well, in particular those owned by Sullivan Bloodstock (Laurina being the recent high profile runner). We get chance to see a couple more today, Estelle Ma Belle (one who has won) and Next Destination (different owner) who PN expects to run well according to reports. Personally i wouldn't be interested in backing either and would be a layer of the latter at short odds as it's a decent field. Over at Newcastle (2.05) Epitante can win the Fighting Fifth in receipt of 7lb (mares allowance) from Sceau Royal although you would want evens at least. Runs well fresh so lack of a run shouldn't be an issue. Sceau Royal appears to be a better hurdler than a chaser and was probably fed up of seeing Altior in front at the winning line in 4 runs, nevertheless, i feel form in his last couple of wins is short of what is required to win a champion hurdle and possibly even this afternoon. Cornerstone Lad caused a shock winning this race last year making all and beating the Nicky Henderson trained 2/13f Buveur D'Air, but that was on heavy going and the favourite went lame (not run since). I can't see him in the frame this afternoon. Across the Irish sea, Fairyhouse kick off the 2 day winter meeting with a reasonable card although they can be forgiven as tomorrows is worth waiting for. It looks like a WPM and Elliott benefit meeting (as so often) and Monksfield will surely win the opener (11.30) if he can jump although odds of 1.40 are not for everyone. If there is an odds-on lay i suggest Stolen Silver in the opener at Bangor (12.15). Highest rated and already ran in a couple of novice chases, but is Bangor the right track for him. Having said that he could make all the running and hose up, but at the price i feel he's worth a small lay. Mind you Sam appears to be riding 6 favourites so it may not be an all bad day for him. OK enough for now, a coffee, the Opening Show, then checking out flights to Sweden in early December (not been back since March)  . After this i can look for a lay selection to try to redeem myself from Thursday.Good luck and have a nice Saturday all. |
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Morning Andrew
Could substitute London for Munich pretty much the same weather wise Thanks for write up interesting as usual GL today, looking forward to settling down and watching it all. Fancy Brian Hughes having a fair day and the opposite for paddy Brennen, (on a few short ones) |
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Morning Lucky
I'm close to Lake Ammersee, the weather conditions are normal for this time of the year, in fact there were 'freezing fog' warnings for München area earlier. It's improving now, but still a Grey, soulless sort of day. Likewise i will be watching on ITV later. The Tingle Creek was on a bucket list for December although i always thought a ticket would be Gold dust so i'm going back to my 'adopted' home Linköping in Sweden instead, albeit a week later (11th). Looking forward to seeing friends again and hoping squatters have not moved in to my apartment.  Going to London on 24th (5 days) for an English Christmas and Kempton on Boxing day is an option, but again tickets permitting and it may not be an option anyway. Good luck with your bets today. |
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It looks like a WPM and Elliott benefit meeting (as so often) and Monksfield will surely win the opener (11.30) if he can jump although odds of 1.40 are not for everyone.
Monksfield would have done well to win at 48 years old. Obviously i had my nostalgia head on (it was meant to be Monkfish) |
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stolen silver,
CastelGandolfo(brennen) Ascot De Bruyer (hughes) |
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well done with the lay, back on track
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Lucky
WD Macintoshmatty Thanks, but not one for the P/L (sadly) although i will be posting one later. |
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Lay Post
Newbury 2.25 - Marie's Rock A 5 year old Milan mare trained by Nicky Henderson in Lambourn, Berkshire. Dam was ordinary during her racing career (3/29) but not so in breeding terms with a couple of offspring both winning. Most readers will be aware of the mare who is undefeated in 3 runs, the first in a lowly mares only bumper at Ffos Las (16f) although average form at best with only a single winner coming from the field since. Was given an almost 7 month break and improved next time out winning a reasonably good introductory (mixed sex) hurdle race at Haydock (15.5f) although she was receiving 12 lb from the runner-up. To give her credit, this was a half decent performance. Back to a mares only listed race LTO winning well enough (16.5f) at Taunton, but 5 of the flights were omitted so it was more or less a bumper with a few hurdles. Was ruled out of the Dawn Run Mares novice at the Cheltenham festival earlier this year and since had a wind operation. Obviously had issues being off almost 11 months. A decent listed race of 9 runners, several of whom are equal or higher rated (141). Is this a race to bring her on with a future career in mind, i can't imagine she's going to be knocked about on her seasons debut. She may also be better with give in the going and it could be a little lively for her today. The risk is she could be anything of course and although she should improve for the run i don't think she will be winning this afternoon, hence the lay selection. Lay @ 2.82. Good luck all. 28-Nov-20 13:03:14 14:25 Newbury Maries Rock - 2m Listed Hrd Betfair Bet ID 1:217931202992 | Matched: 28-Nov-20 13:03:14 Lay 2.82 50.00 -- 91.00 50.00 Matched |
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Thank ANDREW G/L
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Not sighted - well done AIS
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Never a moments worry.
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well done with the lay, back on track
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Spot on again well done
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Well done with the lay, never too much to worry about and drifted massively just before the off.
Thoroughly enjoyed the racing today and nice to see Yorkhill winning, no didn't back him but did back another outsider in the race that finished 7th and last, had a wining day thanks to poor old Paddy Brennan having a mare Getting tickets for Kempton either day will be impossible so looks like 2021 Guineas meeting unless you are over before. I'm hoping to go Cheltenham but being realistic not holding out much hope. Have to be a little meeting over the jumps at Lingfield if there are any in the early a part of the new year |
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Good evening Guys.
Many thanks for the comments post the lay race, much appreciated. Not a bad day really with the early thoughts post and the lay selection finishing unplaced. Backed down to 11/8f, but close to race time drifted to 2/1f as Lucky Luciano intimated. In the race itself she pulled hard, never really got into a rhythm and made a couple of mistakes. Beaten from some way out even allowing for a messy race where she was hampered late on. She will improve (lightly raced) but it may transpire in time that she's not as good as her unbeaten record may have given credence to earlier today. Unfortunately my EW selection Potterman (backed down to 11/1) UR in the Hennessy Gold Cup. He was running well enough in mid-field, but the jockey went flying at the 13th, a pity as the horse had never fallen or unseated the jockey in 22 races. Only 11 runners actually finished so a place may have been possible if he had finished the course, but i doubt he would have beaten the winner anyway who couldn't have won any easier and could go well in next years Grand National. Epitante duly won the Fighting Fifth and how impressive was she, although as with the Hennessy it was a messy race with 2 runners lost at the first flight. I can't see her getting beat in the Christmas hurdle at Kempton, but she will be priced accordingly. Lucky WD on your winning day. I agree it was a good days racing at least those on ITV. I was also happy Yorkhill won, but more so as i layed the 2/1f (small stake) and i thought the winner would weaken on the run-in. As for Kempton, yes tickets will be almost impossible, but i would love to go, i've never been to the Boxing day meeting before. Never mind i can find a High St shop to watch the racing or maybe go and bang on Happysandwich's door but i doubt he would be too happy, he and his wife are on the 'high risk' list.Difficult to say when i'll be over in early 2021, i guess it depends on the Covid situation and each time i travel i can't return to the office without a test certificate, although i can do this locally at short notice. I suspect i will be over before the Guineas meeting, but the latter is very possible, and we could meet up with Ed Thompson, i haven't seen him in a while. Good luck and have a nice evening all. |
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Nice work Andrew.
Epatante looked the real deal today. I also liked Mullins 2 Monkfish and Concertista. Always an eye on Cheltenham. All 3 course winners. |
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Hi Sophie
I think Epitante looked the real deal in the champion last year to be honest. She's 8/10 now and one of the defeats came on debut in a 12.5f French bumper. The race fell apart at the first as we all saw and she didn't really have to be at her best to win yesterday, but the way she quickened past the only danger on the run-in was impressive. Aiden took his time and knew he had a lot of horse under him before jumping the last. A quick and efficient hurdler, the winning time was good as well. She's going to be short odds to win the Christmas hurdle and i think her and Saint Roi in Ireland are going to pay the ex's when i'm over for a few festive days, well that's the thinking anyway. Consertista won as expected although there wasn't much depth in the field. She won the mares race that Marie's Rock was ruled out of at the Cheltenham festival last year and it could take a decent one to beat her there again in 2021, the track really suits her. |
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morning Andrew hope this message finds you in good form and good spirit;read your posts yesterday and I had monkfish a 1/7 chance and as you flagged him up I doubled my stake £800 @ 1.37 so chuffed with that .epitante I made a 2/7 chance particularly with the mares allowance and the evens on here scared me off I thought if it sounds too good to be true then it must be and sadly never had a shilling on .please god the world looks a different place in the spring and would be absolutely fantastic to see you at guineas weekend Andrew nxt time we meet defo exchange numbers best ED T
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as a footnote Andrew a great card in Ireland today and my favourite nh horse in training runs today honeysuckle and will be my only bet today currently 1.48 which seems very fair to me if she's 3/4 fit
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Afternoon Ed.
Good to hear from you. Sure, i can imagine you're pissed off with this pandemic not being able to stand anywhere although Sandown looks good for you next week. I did have a bucket list thought to go over for the Tingle Creek and Altior (the last bet i had with you) but you will have read on here that i'm going to Sweden instead, albeit the weekend after. In London for the festive days, but not the NY. I will probably be over before the Guineas meeting, covid issues permitting of course. Monkfish didn't have anything to beat yesterday and was a bet even at the restricted odds. Made a couple of sketchy jumps but never looked like losing. A good card at Fairyhouse this afternoon and a day for backers in my opinion, although having said that i couldn't believe Zanahiyr was under 3.0 last night. I would have seriously considered posting a lay (albeit risky) at those odds, but not at 3.95. Honeysuckle should win although it's a better field than she met last year winning this race. I can PM you my telephone/WhatsApp numbers. Good luck this afternoon. |