Andrews' New Random Day Lay Thread

Have a VERY HAPPY CHRISTMAS everyone.

Keep a smile on your face and you’ll make all those around you HAPPY too.

XXX

Don’t fight over the kisses.

Happy Xmas and New Year All.

Happy Christmas evening guys, i hope you all had a wonderful festive day with your loved ones.

A welcome respite from racing for a few days, but boxing day tomorrow is a date synonymous with the sport at this time of the year and one welcomed by many NH fans. A total of 7 Graded races (including 5 Grade 1's) spread over a couple of courses each side of the Irish sea, the primary meeting being Kempton (no offence to the Irish) where we get to see some quality novice/experienced chasers and a hurdler who could turn out to be one of the all time greats.

Sadly the current covid pandemic has ruled out public attendance at the course (much to my disappointment) so many of us will be tuning in to 'love him or hate him' Matt Chapman (who is actually quite knowledgeable) with the seductive elegance of Francesca providing glamour, at least to my eyes.

Here are a few Saturday thoughts, mostly for some of the major races.

Kempton 1.15 - Novices Handicap

I mentioned some time ago that the ex-Sullivan Bloodstock horses transferred from WPM to Paul Nicholls in the summer were not winning and that hasn't changed recently, in fact i can't remember the last one that won. Another couple run in this race (although one is with Nicky Henderson) and i can't see Getareason winning although you have to be brave to lay at 10.5 on here.

Kempton 1.50 - Kauto Star Novices Chase

A race named after one of the all time greats (some say the greatest) albeit the roll call of winners is not exactly endowed with upper echelons of novice chasers, but Gloria Victis (who won this race in 1999 when it was the Feltham Novices' Chase) had the potential to be, but sadly suffered a fatal fall in a Cheltenham Gold Cup the following year. An often brilliant jumper in his races, he had led most of the way (a few minor errors) and although jumping out to the right at almost every fence he was still in the lead and going well enough when he fell 2 out. Only a 6 year old he had a good future and Tony McCoy always speaks in glowing terms of him.

In recent years Long Run and Coneygree were decent winners that spring to mind although blood vessel issues and injury respectively hindered their careers. For those that like racing trivia, Lizzie Kelly won the race on Tea For Two in 2015 ensuring she would go down in NH folklore as the first female jockey to win a grade 1 race in the UK.

OK enough facts and figures, who is going to win tomorrow ? I have no idea, but when i saw the field a couple of days ago my initial thought was The Big Breakaway couldn't and wouldn't win, and as he was trading at 3.50 (matched, albeit for buttons) could be a potential lay selection, but he's drifted to 4.20. I would still be a layer at those odds, but not higher and as they exceed my thread limit is not eligible for a selection anyway.

Kempton 2.25 - Christmas Hurdle

Not much to be mentioned here and i certainly wouldn't expect plaudits for putting up Epatante who in my opinion is probably a better hurdler (in terms of technique) than her illustrious stablemate Buveur D'Air twice winner of the Cheltenham champion hurdle. It's not a case of will she win, she will win, but at odds around 2/7 at best it's only a bet for money buyers.

There are those that don't play odds-on and fair enough, but on this occasion i really can't see a shock result at all, she has everything, is close to a good thing today, and it's difficult to see what can beat her at Cheltenham in 2021 adding yet another win in the race for JP McManus who has owned 5 of the last 7 winners. I rate the WPM trained Saint Roi highly but he has to improve to trouble the mare giving her 7 lb.

Kempton 3.00 - King George VI Chase

A race that many of us have differing opinions of this year and probably the one most are looking forward to on Saturday. I covered this race on another thread, so to save typing, a copy, cut, amend and paste is below.
                                                           
I was at Ascot for the Cyrname v Altior duel and backed the latter as (a) one of my favourite chasers and (b) i've never really been a fan of the other and thought his rating was a little exaggerated, primarily based on a couple of wins in races that were definitely questionable, impressive though he was. The only thing i got right about Altior that day was the ante-post and early odds (i wouldn't have backed at SP) but even 2 fences out i had a feeling he was tired and didn't appear to be running as i expected. I think this form should be ignored, in fact, it probably favours Altior that he got so close.

The handicapper raised Cyrname a pound for the win (177) and he's run to a similar mark since (177 and 176) but he fell in one (well beaten at the time) and does a win in an 'ordinary' Charlie Hall really redeem him.

I'm not convinced he really wants 3 miles although we've only had 2 runs to find out and in one of them he was comprehensively beaten by Clan Des Obeaux. Cyrname is clearly useful, but CDO comes alive at Kempton, it's akin to Liverpool playing at home and although his strike rate is only 35%, his form on flat tracks is generally good. Cyrname has the highest rating, but only two as such have won in the last 10 runnings of the race.

I think Clan Des Obeaux will win and with no Irish runners i think it's a duel.

Leopardstown 1.05 - Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle

Racing makes fools of us on occasion and i was certainly on the receiving end last month when i suggested Zanahiyr (todays favourite) was a potential lay at under 3.0. He drifted throughout the morning and i thought my opinion was being endorsed as a result, but how wrong i was. In the race he turned it into an almost procession from the 2nd last flight and the further they went, the better he looked.

Having said that and impressive though he was, what did he beat ? The runner-up was having his first run since coming over from France and the 3rd home surely didn't run to form. This is a much better race and WPM introduces yet another French import with the jockey wearing the familiar Pink silks of Mrs Ricci and her sunglass wearing owner husband.

I wouldn't back or lay Zanahiyr tomorrow, but noticed he is a top priced 4/1 for the Triumph Hurdle that to me is simply ridiculous, On what basis, apart from the usual hype and connections. I would certainly be a layer at these odds.

Limerick 2.35 - Faugheen Novice Chase

Asterion Forlonge will be all the rage here, but i prefer Pencilfulloflead who is improving and won well LTO. Having said that it's not a bad novice field and the bet would be a lay of the favourite (currently 2.18) as i wasn't impressed with his jumping.

Wincanton 12.59 - EBF Mares Novice Chase

Moving away from Black type runners i will be laying the Paul Nichols trained Cill Anna who is making her chase debut and drops back in trip, Currently around 3.10 so one for a layselection short list at least.

I was hoping to be in London now (thanks to Boris and Angela for quarantine restrictions) and readers of this thread recently will know i fully expected Epatante and Saint Roi to pay the expenses. I actually think the latter is the festive season banker (of those at odds against) but that's for Ireland on Tuesday and another thread.

Punchestown

Many thanks for your kind words.

Happysandwich and Glasgow in Chester

Many thanks.

Good luck tomorrow and have a nice Christmas evening all.

Happy Christmas everyone, and a prosperous New Year.

Christmas greetings Andrew and all
Looking forward to this afternoon
FWIW maybe Flimsy and tenuous stat on the first at kempton but in the last nine runnings every time the fav has been a 5 yo and 6/4 or shorter it has won
I fancy it anyway so good enough for me, any coincidence helps
Good luck today

Good morning Laurie, Lucky and everyone.

Hope you all had a nice Christmas day with family members although i guess numbers are restricted in much the same way they are here in Germany.

I posted my Kempton and Leopardstown thoughts yesterday and don't need to add to them.

Looking forward to ITV racing with a couple of beers and home made Lussekatter (Swedish Saffron buns) later. I think Clans De Obeuax will win the KG and surely Epatante wins cosily enough without having a hard race. I was matched at 1.28 yesterday, but some got 1.41.

Lucky

Good luck with favorite in the opener, irrespective of stats you're on the best horse.

Lay Post

Limerick 2.35 - Asterion Forlonge

A 6 year old Coastal Path gelding trained by Willie Mullins in Munine Bheag, County Carlow.

Dam was unraced. A total of 4 offspring producing winners from a couple.

Winner of a 20f P2P in early 2018 followed by a win in a 16f bumper at Thurles last November (1/4f).

3 runs in 2020, the first in a 16f maiden hurdle where he actually beat one of todays rivals Pencilfulloflead (has improved since). Jumped to the right at times.

Upped in grade next time out winning a Grade 1 novice hurdle beating Easywork but again jumped to the right at times.

Was 9/4 favourite for the Supreme Hurdle at Cheltenham, but finished 4th beaten 14L. Once again jumped to the right although held every chance at the last. Outpaced on the run-in.

Good overall form over hurdles to be fair, but not all horses convert the same level to fences.

Made his debut in a beginners chase at Punchestown LTO and won it well enough, although it was a very winnable race and he was the 4/11f. There wasn't a lot of strength in depth to the race and although a couple in the field have won since all other runners (and quite a few) have not franked the form at all.

Chasing hasn't negated his trait of jumping to the right and he looked a little novicey at some of the fences. He steps into grade 1 company this afternoon and it's not a bad field, all 5 runners being closely matched, at least on RPR.

Limerick is a right handed track that may suit him better than Punchestown, but jumping to one side over fences is not so forgiving (additionally losing a little ground) and there are 5 in a row down the back straight.

The risk is obvious, trained by one of the best and he could be a class above these, but fences are there to be jumped (on heavy going) and at 11/10 i feel he's underpriced in a reasonable field. WPM appeared to be a little bullish about his chances, but i'm not totally convinced this afternoon, hence the lay selection.

Lay @ 2.14

Good luck all.

26-Dec-20
13:10:23    14:35 Limerick
Asterion Forlonge - 2m4f Grd1 Nov Chs
Betfair Bet ID 1:220337742168 | Matched: 26-Dec-20 13:14:05    Lay    2.14    50.00    --    57.00
50.00
Matched

Fell 4/6f

Missed this, shame...very un AIS to lay at odds-on! WD

WD with the lay Andrew

Trusty

Thanks.

I layed Asterion Forlonge @ 2.14, but it was heavily backed close to race time. The lays i mentioned in my thoughts post yesterday included this one. He didn't look a natural LTO (jumped better today) but it was too early to say he would have won or not.

Did OK with my lays this afternoon and backed CDO in a match bet with Cyrname, but Epatante running poorly has ensured a losing day.

PHS

Thanks. I didn't see your post earlier.

The P/L a little more in profit after Asterion Forlonge

Dec 26, 2020 -- 3:28PM, Andrew.in.Sweden wrote:

PHSThanks. I didn't see your post earlier. The P/L a little more in profit after Asterion Forlonge

It is Andrew. Up 2.2% in 2.5 years; I'm sure that'll get better in 2021.

PHS

2.2% ? Based on what ? Previous 3 threads. This one is also up (albeit small)

Daily Lay Thread 2018 (Spring/Summer)
Total 66 selections (including Saturday and Sunday thread)
Success 55/66
Strike rate 83%
Overall profit +£1657 to level max stake £50 per day (less commission)

Random Daily Lay Thread 2018 (Summer/Winter)
Total 64 selections
Success 46/64
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£425 to level max stake £50 per day (less commission)

Daily Lay Thread 2019 (various months)
Total 78 selections
Success 56/78
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£81 to level max stake £50 per day (after commission). To be confirmed.

Since Jun 2018. I must've missed quite a few, as I only have 110 on my spreadsheet - I'll have missed some of your Spring/Summer ones as I only started 08/06/18, and didn't you make a really good start on that first thread, which could account for the difference.

^that should have said I'll have missed some of your 2018 Spring/Summer ones as I only started 08/06/18.

Hi Andrew

I never saw your post until too late but I see you overlooked mentioning the fact that the only mare in the race, a race run on heavy ground, Coolreevy won it at 5/1. It wasn't missed in this quarter.

Also in the first race three fillies were running and one won at 100/1. Of course I missed that.

Good morning Guys from a beautiful, sunny (albeit chilly) West of München.

Hi PHS

Correct, you must have missed many selections if you only have 110 on a spreadsheet. There was a total of 208 on the first 3 threads (i will put up this thread P/L later).

I finished the first thread (66 selections) in early summer 2018 as i was visiting my daughter in Indonesia for several weeks. I started again on my return from 0 (on the same thread) and made 64 selections. The next (and new thread) was 78 selections. The first thread record was good, but i had 5 weeks at home and consequently much more free time.

I didn't exactly excel myself in subsequent threads but at least they all finished in profit. The poster Striding Edge created a spreadsheet of my selections and posted a link in early days and the same for poster Bitbybit who has also done this recently (my thanks to both). I wasn't having a pop by the way, just surprised when i saw 2.2% profit in 2.5 years.

Hi Laurie

Yes i noticed there was a mare in my lay selection race (and i know you have a theory about mares in heavy ground) but i actually thought Pencilfulloflead was a possible winner (2nd @ 13/2 beaten 0.5L) as i stated in my Saturday thoughts post. I was surprised at the lay SP (4/6f).

Good luck.

Good morning Andrew. From a beautiful, quiet, if somewhat chilly, Uffington, South Oxfordshire. Officially Tier 4. I do have a theory about fillies and mares in heavy ground and, with so many mares races about the girls that take on the boys often do pretty well. I think she would have won more easily yesterday, she was just going clear when she made a right mess of the second last but when they were on the flat I was confident she would run past the second horse. She was at least 8s on Bf as well. It is not a golden bullet but I do find it something to watch out for when having a bet in desperate ground. And that goes for backing or laying.
Have a good day and a happy new year.

Hi Guys

Very doubtful of a lay post today, 2 meetings off and many races outside the 5/2 limit.

I did have a shortlist including the 2 below (with a match bet option) but not with any real conviction so probably a free day and i can watch ITV.

12.25 Leopardstown - Defi Blue

1.45 Leopardstown. Appreciate It (lay) in a match bet with Ballyadam

3.35 Wolverhampton - Midnight In Paris

Good luck all

Laurie

Likewise a Happy New Year 2021 to you and family.

Good morning Guys from a chilly West München.

Today is the day i’ve been waiting for several weeks (since November 15th actually) at least from a racing perspective and regular readers will know what i mean as i’ve stuck my head on the block several times on here (and a couple of other threads) by mentioning i considered a runner at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting as the best festive season bet (not including the odds-on runners of course).

The race in question is the Grade 1 Matheson Hurdle at Leopardstown (2.25) previously known as the December Festival Hurdle (and the Istabraq). Looking at previous winners, it’s a good guide to the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle with Istabraq (a 4 time winner) Brave Inca (twice) and Hurricane (4 times) no less, even the great chaser Moscow Flyer won it. Whether there is anything in the field of their standard this afternoon remains to be seen, but it wouldn’t be totally out of question.

The horse is question is the 5 year old Saint Roi trained by the Master of Closutton in County Carlow. He first came to prominence (the horse, not Willie ) at least to me when he won the County Hurdle at the Festival earlier this year. I didn’t back him but watched the race and was impressed with the run (off a mark of 137) more so as he was a lightly raced 5 year old coming off the back of a win in a maiden hurdle at Tramore. He was well backed down to 11-2f and showed a good turn of foot on the run-in. The handicapped was also impressed raising him 14 lb.

He didn’t have to improve in his next run even though it was Grade 3 (4/7f). He travelled well, quickened from 2 out and won cosily enough. He wasn’t foot perfect at some of the flights, but never really looked like falling. I actually put him on this thread as a 12/1 EW bet for the CH before this race (best price 5/1 now).

He was up in Grade (and rating to 156) for the top level Morgiana Hurdle LTO, but was beaten a neck into 2nd place. Whatever you feel about the race i felt he was unlucky and although i’m not in a habit of criticising jockeys, it wasn’t Mark Walsh’s best ride by a long way. He wasn’t fluent at the last couple of flights (didn’t lose so much momentum) but he was short of room after the bend and switched to the rail on the run-in. I didn’t think the latter move was beneficial at the time, but Mark is a better jockey than me and he did quicken up, unfortunately it’s a short run in at Punchestown and in a few more strides he would have won.

It’s a decent field this afternoon and the race will give NH fans a better idea if he’s the real deal (as i think). Am i confident ? Yes, at least as much as i can be in a race of this stature (although not on a Ten Sovereigns scale in the Middle Park). I backed him last night @ 2.92 and this was actually better than i expected, i will be surprised if he’s around these odds later. He’s not a certainty by any means, but he isn’t odds-on either.

I’ve been wrong before and i will be in future, but racing is all about opinions and mine is he should be backed this afternoon.

If i get it wrong, so be it and as my daughter arrives in München at lunchtime after 3 flights and 32 hours from Australia (via Sydney and Doha) as a surprise return to Europe it will still be a superb day.

Good luck to all that play.

We should see exactly how good he is today (Saint Roi) as he has at least 4 tough horses to beat today who have won at Grade 1 level and the other 2 at Grade 2.

I agree it was a poor ride LTO by Walsh on the horse but I don't expect any such hard luck today as I think it's a bit fairer at Leopardstown.

Saldier could be interesting although not seen since winning last years Morgiana at Punchestown which was after a 370 day break so can go well fresh.Has a run against the ill fated Espoir D'Allen in a Grade 3 (upsides when fell at the last) in late 2018 which puts him in the mix.

Punchestown

I totally agree it's a tough race, if fact if i wasn't so strong on Saint Roi could probably make a case for any of the field. Take out Sharjah who has won this race of the 2 previous years, there's only 7 lb between the rest.

I'm not a fan of Abacadabras and think Aspire Tower is the danger.

Good luck.

# in fact

Saint Roi ran his race and I think we have to face up to the fact that it is not as good as thought by a lot of people (including me),thought Aspire Tower ran a cracker for a second season hurdler and only found the enigma that is Sharjah too good on the day.

Saldier looked like getting involved 2 out but ran out of puff which I suppose at this level is understandable.
Abacadabras was a major disappointment.

Was it chilly in Slough? So cold another new thread required for 2021 maybe?

Good evening Guys

Not much to say about Saint Roi and probably the less said the better. I can handle the financial loss, we have to take it on the chin after a loss, but it was a disappointing result, i really thought he was better than that.

I didn't see the race live as i was on the way home with my daughter, but i watched the VR this evening. A decent pace (the winning time was easily the best compared to standard times on the day). He wasn't fluent at a few flights, but well in contention after the bend and seemingly going OK although Paul was travelling much better on the winner.

He didn't quicken on the run-in like he has in the past either being caught for 3rd and the ground can't be a reason.

No excuses (or didn't appear to be) maybe that's as good as he is and he will not be winning the champion hurdle if this is the case. I can't back him again until he shows better form.

C'est la vie, that's racing and i hold my hands up.

Punchestown

Thanks for the post.

As mentioned in my earlier post i thought Aspire Tower was the danger and i agree he ran well. The winner obviously loves Leopardstown winning the race for the 3rd time (and a little more readily than it may have looked) horses for courses etc.

Good luck.

Toby

There will be a new lay thread on January 1st, as there is every year.

As for Slough, the only connection i have with that crap-hole of a town is i used to have Greyhounds running there (trained by Paddy Pierce) when i lived in UK (pre-1984). I wouldn't live there now if you paid for my accommodation.

As for continuation of your silly games, give it a rest, you're becoming boring and making yourself look a tw@t. Want me to post a photo of my residency papers ? Get a life.

Good morning Guys from a beautiful day West of München.

4 days R&R for me and a short week to follow (January 6th is a holiday in Bavaria).

The last day for this lay thread and although in profit (small) i would like to post a selection if i can find one even though i would risk finishing on a negative.

A new thread will start tomorrow, exactly the same concept as always (5/2 or under, matched to win 50 and max one selection per day). Covid and mega workload has restricted the number of selections, but hopefully 2021 will be better.

I always enjoy reading your thoughts Andrew,Have a good New Year with your daughter.I am sure the 2021 thread will show a profit.

Good morning Andrew and a very HAPPY NEW YEAR to you and all your followers.

It’s a grey day in London but that’s par for this time of the year.

My advice is to go out winning and risk starting the new year on a loser.

But what do I know?

Second Again

Many thanks.

We can't do much here in Germany, everything is closed/under lockdown and there is a curfew after 21.00 anyway. There's also a blanket ban on the sale/use of fireworks within the Mittlerer Ring so i don't know what will occur (if anything) at 00.00. We will watch on TV out of curiosity.

Irrespective of the above it's good to have my daughter home, the last time i saw her was January 9th when she went back to Australia. She will be here for some time, then uni in England to finish her Masters.

Have a happy new year 2021 with your loved ones.

Happysandwich

Likewise a happy new year to you and H. Please pass on my best wishes to her. A nice day here and actually quite a few people walking by the lake earlier. Even the Turkish Kebab place was open (for takeaway).

As for advice you could be right, let's see, the cards are ordinary anyway.

If i did post a lay it would be a shortie considering this threads small profit level and one in particular i looked at earlier was fav in the 1.35 Punchestown - Rivieri Detel.

The form in it's debut race hasn't worked out and although it finished runner-up in a listed race on his only other start it was a newcomers race and many didn't finish. It ran well enough but Gordons are a bit hit and miss at the moment. It could sluice up, but at even money i wouldn't be a backer.

As for an EW, i thought Twilight Girl in the 1.05 Punchestown was worth a fun bet, currently 29 on here for the win, but 4TBP could also be an option. Lightly raced and only a couple of runs over chases (placed each occasion). Acts on heavy and running off a low mark on handicap chase debut. May have to improve a little but his run LTO was as such and this longer trip could suit.

Good luck all.

it finished runner-up in a listed race on her only other start i

A good run from Twilight Girl (BSP around 30) she made a few jumping errors and one at the last probably cost her 3rd place. Made a lot of the running and just faded after the last fence. I think she finished 5th (bunch finish). A pity as i backed a small win and 4TBP.

It could sluice up, but at even money i wouldn't be a backer.

Rivieri Detel did sluice up, but the 2nd fav was a NR (31.3% RF) and another withdrawn, hence the 8/15f SP.

Andrew, Happy and all readers and contributors   
Happy and prosperous New Year guys

Andrew,
At least a nice end to this sh*t year to have your daughter spending time with you, more than makes up for Epatante and Saint Roi I've not had a good last few days betting wise but we move on.
My daughter I'm pleased to say is still here, was going back to Southampton but after a family meeting the sensible decision was reached    

Hopefully 2021 we can meet up with Happysandwich on a racecourse, not to much to ask !!

Stay safe all

Hello Andrew

Keep up the good work.

Ignore the idiotic trolls, I have a few who pursue me also, not sure if it's some weird jealousy or just a basic low level of intelligence but a real problem on here imo.

Should be dealt with but as we all know Betfair doesnt really do customer relations, doesn't need too.

Only does advertising and media....

Anyway Happy New Year, and remember, gambling could tame Lions. It's a difficult difficult thing.

Enjoy the time with your daughter also, I have a daughter in her twenties who has been travelling all over the world also, now settled along the road in Edinburgh and it's great to spend time together in these strangest of years..

Idiotic trolls Jedi? Lucky guess at Slough IYO not too mention sudden visits from Australia to the West End of Munich that NOBODY in Munchen has ever referred to as "The West End",that apart according to a very good friend the city has been in "Lockdown" this month?

the West End of Munich that NOBODY in Munchen has ever referred to as "The West End

Andrew.in.Sweden Dec 20 11:02 

Good morning Guys from a beautiful day West of München

according to a very good friend the city has been in "Lockdown" this month?

Andrew.in.Sweden 31 Dec 20 13:10 

We can't do much here in Germany, everything is closed/under lockdown and there is a curfew after 21.00 anyway. There's also a blanket ban on the sale/use of fireworks within the Mittlerer Ring so i don't know what will occur (if anything) at 00.00. We will watch on TV out of curiosity.

Keep digging

how long how long have you lived in Germany a.d from Sweden have you tired the uk or is that out of limits from tomorrow?

La La Land boga,he picked the wrong City to become resident!!!

His name is Dieter,he says he will happily meet you in 20 minutes Andre?

Reiter btw,he will be very pleased he just told me!!!

BIG night in Munchen,lots of socially distanced fireworks according to Dieter,are you going Andrew?

Boga

I left UK in June 1984 and went to work for Fokker BV at Schiphol (there for 2 years). Worked in quite a few countries since (on 3 continents) but spent most of my years in Linköping, Sweden as a freelance consultant for Saab Aerospace. Now seconded on a dual contract down here since early 2019, but still do 'remote' work.

I'm currently living West of München close to Lake Ammersee but work nearer the city at the DLR (German Aerospace Centre). I will probably be here most, if not all of 2021 then return to Sweden, or i could be given an option to stay as it's an ongoing project. I still go home to Sweden once a month (or did until Covid prevented it, but was there over 2 weeks ago).

Brexit is not a problem for me in either country, i have residency in both, tax and VAT numbers, and each country has informed me of the process. Down here i simply have to re-register before June 2021.

In Sweden i could easily get a Svenska passport if necessary due to the years i've lived and worked up there but i don't have plans to. There's actually a lot of ex-UK families living in Linköping (and a few guys at Saab). I had to go to a Brexit meeting at the city hall a couple of years ago and was surprised at how many.

When you left is irrelevant,the truth would do YOu more favours or do you think respect from lying is your bag?

BTW..............BREXIT is not a problem for someone who told the FORUM that every EX Pat was going to have their Bank Accounts closed?

Toby Mug

From a website

Firework rules in Germany

Fireworks are classed into four different categories (Klassen) in Germany, from F1 to F4. Category F1 fireworks are smaller fireworks that contain the smallest amount of explosives and are generally sold all year round. They include sparklers, poppers and streamers.

Category F2 fireworks are your typical garden fireworks, including small rockets and fountains. F3 fireworks are designated as display fireworks; you need a special license to buy them. Finally, F4 fireworks are professional fireworks and are only available to professional pyrotechnicians.

In normal years, F1 fireworks can be bought all year round by anyone over the age of 12, while bigger fireworks are usually only sold at licenced shops. The only exception to this is the period between December 28 and 30, when bigger fireworks can be bought in shops all over the country.

Any fireworks that fall into the F2 category or higher can usually only be set off from December 31 to January 1 in Germany; although you can apply for the use of fireworks at certain events like birthdays or weddings. They cannot be set off near hospitals, churches, care homes or houses with thatched roofs.

Firework rules for 2020

In 2020, however, the German government has implemented a blanket ban on the sale of fireworks, as part of their sweeping restrictions aimed at tackling the spread of coronavirus. The government has also placed a nationwide ban on gatherings on Silvester and New Year’s Day, so big fireworks displays will not take place.

The nationwide measures do not necessarily prohibit people from setting off fireworks, although it is strongly discouraged (and in some states prohibited - see below).

Local authorities have been given the power to ban fireworks from certain public places in an attempt to stop people from gathering. This is not an uncommon practice; individual federal states and cities usually implement bans on setting off fireworks in certain public areas to protect historically important buildings or medieval town centres. Here's an overview of the rules in the different federal states:

Baden-Württemberg: Fireworks prohibited in public places; curfew also applies from 8 pm to 5 am on New Year's Eve. You can only let off fireworks in your own garden or from a balcony.

Bavaria: Curfew applies from 9 pm to 5 am on New Year's Eve. You can only let off fireworks on private property; in Munich a blanket ban applies within the Mittlerer Ring.

Keep digging

The Hole and the whole get deeper,why the years of trolling Andrew,why the lies you continue to perpetuate when YOU know you have been EXPOSED?

"Toby Mug"................ask Dieter,he is YOUR Mayor btw!!!!!!!!!! HTH

Gone quiete Andre,some might wonder why they have looked and accepted it for so long? YOU know your fantasy,are you going to continue to pretend otherwise?

I only live my life because it was what I chose to do,right or wrong,mostly to do right,facts I can ALWAYS supply,YOU still lie and troll to your own benefit?????????

Lets all hope the new year brings the end of this eejit tobymug

Glentoby...

Yes idiotic trolls!

On reading today's posts I would suggest your one of them you losing clown...

I can only assume your maybe a tad lonely, maybe a tad sad, fill your time on here?

Start your own thread and perpetuate it you numpty...

BTW Andrew et al,self explanatory why I am engaging on here on the last day of the year,the next means little to me in terms of a future life.

Even so I do not understand a perpetual lie which is so sad in the concept but still tries to deceive others who may be newcomers to this Forum?

Welcome to Challenge JEDI,have a debate of lies or facts?

If you could put up one strand of truth in your fantasy life then it may be different
Until then just a joke

Have a laugh then MADHATTERS........POINT OUT A LIE?

ONE SINGLE LIE that does NOT expose YOU and "Friends" as the TROLLS or are you all sub IQ?

Only one troll about
Check your mirror

State a fact then we will see
You have none
So waste of breath

So you are saying that Andrew has no voice of his own,my opinion has no validity?

Come on Montalbano
Stick some evidence up

Oh you havent got any

FACT............ANDREW is NOT IN MUNICH..........FACT..........MY Friend DIETER is waiting to welcome him and his daughter!!!!!!!!!!!!!

what did you study at university Andrew? sounds like you should bring a book out can i have a signed copy? was you ever a professional gambler during your life? you know your trots in Sweden made me a few quid in lockdown Garcia amigo.....

AIS has replied on many occasion but guess just bored with you
See todays post

Your opinion has no validity as you carry no weight or truth

Unfact you thick fecker
How do you know ?
Evidence ?
Not forthcoming - once again

How long do you make the mayor wait?

FFFS get lst

Bored with you too now
Surprised i wasted so much on an amoeba

So just accept YOU are a none Swedish troll.buona fortuna cagino!!!

Waiting R SOLE?

Boga

I never went to University, it's one of my life regrets actually, but i did OK after a few years of being a kn@b and thinking i knew it all.

I left school with zilch, not even an O level, but was offered an engineering apprenticeship at an aerospace company. I did my City and Guilds (5 years) in mechanical engineering. Attained a few more aerospace related qualifications since and i'm a MRAeS.

As for trotting i used to go with Swedish friends but got fed up of it after a couple of years (probably lost a few quid as well). I do remember good ones like Mack Lobell and Queen L, both won me a nice few quid at the Eliteloppet in Sovalla, a once a year weekend meeting like our Royal Ascot. I never go these days.

Never been a pro-gambler and to be honest not sure i could be. Whatever some say on here it's so difficult to win pre-race over a course of years and it must take a completely different mindset and discipline to be successful. Thankfully i love my work so i don't have to.

I've had some decent bets in my time (specially on Frankel and Sprinter Sacre) but i would consider myself a recreational player.

Tobymug

Nobody can meet in München after 21.00 and that includes the mayor.

Get a life.

Get reality AIS,far too late to claim anything,Dieter is already there,where are YOU???? Happy NEW YEAR YSDC!!!

Good evening Guys

I went through this thread earlier in order to update the P/L. I think i got everything covered and hopefully i haven't made any mistakes (i don't think so).

Final 2020 P/L Status

Starting with the last posted record on September 2nd (page 30 of this thread) for clarity.

Note that W or L refers to the matched bet, not the finishing place.

September 2nd

Wolverhampton 8.15 - Party Planner @ 3.65

Current Progress	15/21
Running Form	WWWLLWLWWLLLWWWWWWWWW
Daily Profit	+£50
Running P/L	+£109

October 9th

Downpatrick 2.52 - Farceur Du Large @ 3.50

Current Progress	15/22
Running Form	WWWLLWLWWLLLWWWWWWWWWL
Daily Loss	-£125
Running P/L	-£16

October 24th

Kelso 4-18 - Cedar Hill @ 3.10

Current Progress	15/23
Running Form	WWWLLWLWWLLLWWWWWWWWWLL
Daily Loss	-£105
Running P/L	-£121

October 31st

Wolverhampton 8.30 - Love Love @ 2.60

Current Progress	15/24
Running Form	WWWLLWLWWLLLWWWWWWWWWLLL
Daily Loss	-£80
Running P/L	-£201

November 3rd

Newcastle 7.45 - Mutalahef @ 3.70

Current Progress	16/25
Running Form	WWWLLWLWWLLLWWWWWWWWWLLLW
Daily Profit	+£50
Running P/L	-£151

November 8th

Ffos Las 2.25 - Ask Me Early @ 3.20

Current Progress	17/26
Running Form	WWWLLWLWWLLLWWWWWWWWWLLLWW
Daily Profit	+£50
Running P/L	-£101

November 15th

Southwell 1.45 - Model Guest @ 3.10

Current Progress	17/27
Running Form	WWWLLWLWWLLLWWWWWWWWWLLLWWL
Daily Loss	-£105
Running P/L	-£206

November 19th

Chelmsford 7.00 - Invincible Larne @ 3.60

Current Progress	18/28
Running Form	WWWLLWLWWLLLWWWWWWWWWLLLWWLW
Daily Profit	+£50
Running P/L	-£156

November 21st

Ascot 2.40 - Laurina @ 2.64

Current Progress	19/29
Running Form	WWWLLWLWWLLLWWWWWWWWWLLLWWLWW
Daily Profit	+£50
Running P/L	-£106

November 23rd

Ludlow 2.10 - Dustin Des Motles @ 3.05

Current Progress	20/30
Running Form	WWWLLWLWWLLLWWWWWWWWWLLLWWLWWW
Daily Profit	+£50
Running P/L	-£56

November 26th

Chelmsford 5.30 - Ayr Harbour @ 3.30

Current Progress	20/31
Running Form	WWWLLWLWWLLLWWWWWWWWWLLLWWLWWWL
Daily Loss	+£115
Running P/L	-£171

November 28th

Newbury 2.25 - Marie's Rock @ 2.82

Current Progress	21/32
Running Form	WWWLLWLWWLLLWWWWWWWWWLLLWWLWWWLW
Daily Profit	+£50
Running P/L	-£121

December 4th

Dundalk 7.30 - Pulse Of Shanghai @ 2.88

Current Progress	22/33
Running Form	WWWLLWLWWLLLWWWWWWWWWLLLWWLWWWLWW
Daily Profit	+£50
Running P/L	-£71

December 6th

Punchestown 12.35 - Crossfire @ 2.76

Current Progress	23/34
Running Form	WWWLLWLWWLLLWWWWWWWWWLLLWWLWWWLWWW
Daily Profit	+£50
Running P/L	-£21

December 17th

Hereford 12.55 - Everything Now @ 2.98

Current Progress	24/35
Running Form	WWWLLWLWWLLLWWWWWWWWWLLLWWLWWWLWWWW
Daily Profit	+£50
Running P/L	+£29

December 26th

Limerick 2.35 - Asterion Forlonge @ 2.14

Current Progress	25/36
Running Form	WWWLLWLWWLLLWWWWWWWWWLLLWWLWWWLWWWWW
Daily Profit	+£50
Running P/L	+£79

Final profit £79

A small profit over the year but i didn't really excel this time around, albeit from a much reduced quantity of selections, covid and a mega workload playing a part. Compared to my first lay thread where i posted 66 selections in 70 days (4 NR's) !

Laying is not a road to untold riches and you only need a run of 3 losses (as i did) at say 2/1 odds and you need 6 successful lays to get back. At least i managed to claw my way back.

Hopefully i can do better in 2021 with a lot more regular selections.

Good luck all and have a nice NY eve with loved ones.

Lucky and Sophie, i will respond in the morning as the Mayor of Bavaria is at the front door

Complete lay threads record (all proofed on here)

Daily Lay Thread 2018 (Spring/Summer)
Total 66 selections (including Saturday and Sunday thread)
Success 55/66
Strike rate 83%
Overall profit +£1657 to level max stake £50 per day

Random Daily Lay Thread 2018 (late Summer/Winter)
Total 64 selections
Success 46/64
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£425 to level max stake £50 per day (less commission)

Daily Lay Thread 2019 (reduced selections)
Total 78 selections
Success 56/78
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£81 to level max stake £50 per day

Random Lay Thread 2020 (reduced selections)
Total 36 selections
Success 25/36
Strike rate 69%
Overall profit +£79 to level max stake £50 per day

The above is pre-commission

Good morning Guys, Happy New Year 2021 to everyone.

Lucky Luciano

Thanks

Yes a complete surprise my daughter decided to return (i knew before she left Australia) but i suspect Brexit has played a part as she can stay in EU without the 90 day limit now. She certainly did make up for defeats of Epatante and Saint Roi although my losses were not the type to keep me awake at night. C'est la vie and it was last year.

Hopefully we can get Happysandwich and Bitbybit out for a race meeting soon, i'm good to come over at short notice anyway as i have a few bob to pick up on a Joe Biden bet and BA vouchers to use from my cancelled Christmas trip.

I looked at the BHA race fixtures yesterday, it appears there are spectator restrictions for the next couple of months but i guess that's based on current information and the situation could change. Sandown on February 6th or Ascot on 20th would be decent meetings (Ed Thompson stands at the former).

Sophie

Thanks

Your daughter is lucky being you in Edinburgh, i think i'm correct in thinking you have free university courses up there ? My daughter has a full UK passport, but is classed as an international student (and higher fees) where she's going (she has actually already started, but it's all online due to the pandemic).

As for trolls, it's part and parcel of life on social media these days, most of us are probably subjected to it at some stage. Kemo Sabe, Glentoby and Bigmart (all in various guises) have played their part on here, although to be fair Mart was never abusive towards me and actually made me laugh on occasions with some of the comical stuff he posted.

There are a couple of common denominators with the 3 of them, the first is pure 'fantasy' related to countrywide stable connections, owners, squirrels and molerats, the other is they all post a zillion threads over time (none with a P./L) although there is a reason for this. Toby has a bee in his bonnet with everyone to be honest, we are all trolls if we disagree with him, and in his head everyone has an alternative moniker.

Each to their own i guess.

I will start a new thread today if i see a lay that looks good for a 2021 debut, if not tomorrow. What happened to all the NY meetings we used to have in the past, there's only 4 today from 3 countries.

Good luck and have a nice New Years Day all.

Andrew,
Just a couple of name errors in your list;

23/11 Dustin Des Mottes not Dustin Des Motles
06/12 Crosshill not Crossfire

Thanks Andrew

Another profitable year for you (although I missed a couple). Well done!

I'll try and update the googledocs today so everyone can see the results and download them if they wish.

Definitely up for a meeting catchup post Covid.

All the best to us all in 2021!

PHS

As always they are deliberate speeling errors to see if anyone reads this thread

Seriously, many thanks.

Bitbybit

Many thanks for the spreadsheet, but don't worry about it today. Grab a few beers we have ITV racing later.

Happy New Year Andrew ,look forward to your selections/tips in 2021 ,a pleasure to read your threads ,ignore the troll ,and have a good one.

AIS  - I am sure snowymoon speaks for many of us who enjoy your posts - keep 'em coming!!!

and "snowynoon" too!!

WD AIS,much appreciated.

Happy New Year Andrew, always enjoy reading your posts, here's to a more enjoyable 2021 for everyone

13:55 Musselburgh
Blakeney Point - 1m7f Hcap Hrd
Betfair Bet ID 1:220749559789 | Matched: 01-Jan-21 13:54:29    Back    36.00    10.00    --    --
350.00
Matched
Afternoon Andrew
After timing so apologies but I’ve backed this a few times and you may remember I put him up on here last year at york at a big price finished tailed off
Good start to the year, taking the dog out now

If you don't put a Lay up soon Andrew this is going to turn into the £10 after "timer's thread"?



Happy New Year, Lucky

Keep it going in that direction.

Back (Bet For)
Odds Stake Profit
Al Boum Photo
1.28
£10.00
£2.80
Ref: 220752355612 Matched: 14:42 01-Jan-21

Good morning Guys/Girls.

Many thanks for the kind comments since my previous post, much appreciated.

Lucky

VWD, a nice winner and what a start to the year, you don't need a lot on on 35/1. It was a good price considering he had run well LTO, and although making a hurdle handicap in a better race he had a low weight. I'm not suggesting i would have backed it though.

Happysandwich



2 meetings lost yesterday and there wasn't many races i could have chosen from anyway (5/2 limit and no odds-on).

The night before i thought Miranda (same race as Lucky won on) was a viable choice, but it was around the 4.0 mark most of the morning.

I have a couple on a short list for a new thread later.

Good luck

Morning Andrew
Thanks for the reply I’ve backed it before including when it hacked up at bangor and at that price couldn’t let it run without an interest.
I was thinking you are optimistic re Sandown and Ascot in February, but let’s hope things are definitely looking up by then

Morning Happy
Good to see you had a good start to the year as well 
Have you turned professional

Good luck today

Lucky

I guess i could be optimistic hoping for us all to meet up at Sandown or Ascot in February, but aren't all gamblers optimistic ?

Ascot is still 7 weeks away so lets hope Boris has a change of heart.

We can let this thread drop off to sleep now and use the new one.

You could have let it drop off AIS but too many questioning WHY YOU continue to tell LIES?

How is YOUR selection thread going Glentoby? - I haven't seen you update your P&L lately!

It just won TM with NAP next to it,did you miss it?

I saw you tip up two or three - when it went t1ts up you disappeared. You started another thread the next day, same thing happened.

As I have told you before - there is a VERY OBVIOUS reason that you don't put all of your "snippets" on one thread and keep a running P&L

Is my "Selection" thread important to you and AIS with P & L? Is not TRUTH a more important issue given that every selection I have ever posted is on here for posterity or as long as the data is retained?

Post your FACTS TM,I have no issues with answering you or anyone else to specifics!!!?

I couldn't give a monkeys t0ss about your selections.

Quite simply if you put all you selections and drunken ramblings on ONE THREAD it would be much easier for me and all the other sane people to avoid them.

As for the P&L - If you kept a running P&L, I suspect that after about 10 days EVEN YOU would be too embarrassed to continue.

Entitled to your opinion TM but YOU are the critic who stated it WAS important? Go back all the years and point out a direct "Lie" from me regarding ANY subject?

Do not stop there though,as you will see going back over a decade you will see posts that state I do not keep P & L records,no point unless one is losing,I have not had a losing year since 1999 and neither have my posted advices.HTH

Are you going to deny your other user names or back up AIS in Munchen in the same post,again?

A simple question Andrew,who supplies your proxy and/or VPN?

snowynoon01 Jan 21 13:09Joined: 15 Feb 19 | Topic/replies: 627 | Blogger: snowynoon's blog
Happy New Year Andrew ,look forward to your selections/tips in 2021 ,a pleasure to read your threads ,ignore the troll ,and have a good one.

I'm gonna do like snowymoon suggests now - and leave you alone with your delusions.

Is that why YOU suggested to put everything on ONE thread in order that YOU and others could AVOID them?

Forgive me asking "Did anyone demand you read any thread I started"? If you read them,why?