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Thread Duration: Oct 26th - December 31st
Quite simply I will be selecting 3YOs I've notebooked on the Flat who go juvenile hurdling.
On my last level stakes thread, I set a target of 100 pts profit, but I won't be doing that this time because there will be far fewer selections and frankly, I'll settle for any profit!
A running P/L will be kept.
As I will need all the help I can get, BOG will apply.
There is just one qualifying race today, the 2.05 Galway
Guinevere, 1pt win @ 16-1
Guinevere has a current Flat rating off 72, and goes juvenile hurdling after a staying on second in a handicap over 1 mile on heavy at Gowran Park when shaping as though in need of a stiffer test.
Who knows if she'll take to it or be one for further down the line, but she appears to have the size to go jumping.
Quite simply I will be selecting 3YOs I've notebooked on the Flat who go juvenile hurdling.
On my last level stakes thread, I set a target of 100 pts profit, but I won't be doing that this time because there will be far fewer selections and frankly, I'll settle for any profit!
A running P/L will be kept.
As I will need all the help I can get, BOG will apply.
There is just one qualifying race today, the 2.05 Galway
Guinevere, 1pt win @ 16-1
Guinevere has a current Flat rating off 72, and goes juvenile hurdling after a staying on second in a handicap over 1 mile on heavy at Gowran Park when shaping as though in need of a stiffer test.
Who knows if she'll take to it or be one for further down the line, but she appears to have the size to go jumping.
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Cheers sageform, interesting that he went unsold this year. Maybe he didn't meet a reserve?
Joseph takes in 50-odd rated horses like Marylebone that they've picked up for peanuts, so presume he must have plenty of space!?
Apparently Donnacha is going to have a much smaller string and concentrate solely on the Flat.
Joseph takes in 50-odd rated horses like Marylebone that they've picked up for peanuts, so presume he must have plenty of space!?
Apparently Donnacha is going to have a much smaller string and concentrate solely on the Flat.
And having watched the Sastruga ride last night, Anorak, clearly a yard to be wary of, IMO.
I've decided to have a second selection, this time on a more speculative one
Twpsyn, 1pt EW @ 66-1, 12.20 Warwick
Twpsyn has a bit to find on Flat ratings with a few of these, but he comes here fit off the Flat having won easily over 12f at Southwell last month, and while his sole turf success to date came only in a 3 runner affair in Guernsey, he might have scored at Windsor over 11.5f at Windsor in July, but for unseating his rider 2f out when seemingly travelling the best.
The ground is an unknown, but he should be fine stamina-wise, and while he disappointed back at Southwell on his latest start, hopefully with the visor being kept on, he's not running today just for the experience.
Twpsyn, 1pt EW @ 66-1, 12.20 Warwick
Twpsyn has a bit to find on Flat ratings with a few of these, but he comes here fit off the Flat having won easily over 12f at Southwell last month, and while his sole turf success to date came only in a 3 runner affair in Guernsey, he might have scored at Windsor over 11.5f at Windsor in July, but for unseating his rider 2f out when seemingly travelling the best.
The ground is an unknown, but he should be fine stamina-wise, and while he disappointed back at Southwell on his latest start, hopefully with the visor being kept on, he's not running today just for the experience.
GL George interesting Stuart Edmunds pitching one in against Nicky (the former with the higher rated runner from flat).
We saw he has a good record in these races with newcomers, a well backed winner earlier on the fred.
We saw he has a good record in these races with newcomers, a well backed winner earlier on the fred.
Good luck with that George. I am staying with Rowland Ward but it is a minimum bet race with hopefully some good ones to follow next time out.
Market makes it look a 2 horse race with Hydroplane the only other one backed. Some nice prices if you fancy anything else.
His first string was running a promising effort when falling off a pretty quiet ride from the rear early, hopefully horse ok.
Fillies allowance and recent experience in bumpers paid off. Right trainer, wrong horse. I thought that Rowland Ward ran OK considering he was a long way back at halfway. Making ground in that mud is impossible.
They pulled Rowland Ward out last month because of the ground but let him run this time, though tbf, it was given as good to soft in places, but clearly it had deteriorated through the morning.
The market got it right regarding which of the Flat recruits would fare best and Palladium pulled well clear of the rest, but a twice-raced bumper filly proved just too good.
As for Kangaroo Valley, they rode him with a bit of restraint and all he did was plug on to finish on the heels of the placed horses.
I took a flyer with Twpsyn, but of my eligible 'rags' it was Tronada which fared best in 4th.
The market got it right regarding which of the Flat recruits would fare best and Palladium pulled well clear of the rest, but a twice-raced bumper filly proved just too good.
As for Kangaroo Valley, they rode him with a bit of restraint and all he did was plug on to finish on the heels of the placed horses.
I took a flyer with Twpsyn, but of my eligible 'rags' it was Tronada which fared best in 4th.
I thought it had travelled fine on the ground GEORGE tbh as Sage alluded to just given a quiet run from the back and very difficult to make up to much ground.
I wouldn't be surprised if the fall has not dented it's confidence to see much more to come there.
Post race Stuart basically saying you don't want to make up too much ground there today but he wanted to get Rowland ward settled. His other runner obviously ridden completely different to suit conditions.
Easy to say after a 55 winner but have mentioned on here previously he is under rated in these races
I wouldn't be surprised if the fall has not dented it's confidence to see much more to come there.
Post race Stuart basically saying you don't want to make up too much ground there today but he wanted to get Rowland ward settled. His other runner obviously ridden completely different to suit conditions.
Easy to say after a 55 winner but have mentioned on here previously he is under rated in these races
The moral of the story, striding, if you were doing a Stuart Edmunds Juvenile Hurdler + / - thread, let the prices dictate and there'd be a + 54 going into the P/L column 
Thankfully these are not my races George as intent is often questionable and the ?? are often endless, I think your approach is certainly as good as any for such races.
55.0 shots for you are like even money punts for others, real shorties.
55.0 shots for you are like even money punts for others, real shorties.
Thankfully managed to a find of couple of winning longshots since the thread started, striding, or else it would have been x-rated stuff 
Three juvenile races on Saturday, a Grade 2 at Doncaster, a Class 2 at Cheltenham, and a maiden 3YO hurdle at Fairyhouse.
Running P/L: +196.2
Three juvenile races on Saturday, a Grade 2 at Doncaster, a Class 2 at Cheltenham, and a maiden 3YO hurdle at Fairyhouse.
Running P/L: +196.2
He's not one of my qualifiers, James, but with a Flat rating of 91, he's obviously potentially useful if he takes to it, and they're throwing him straight in at the deep end.
Spittin' also runs George Ridsdale (also not one of my qualifiers) in the opener at Donny tomorrow in a handicap, he was a bit disappointing last time at Catterick, but maybe the combination of bad ground and penalty did for him. His previous win at Musselburgh is working out with the runner-up El Picador winning easily recently.
I see the sole 3YO in the field, Repetito (8-1), won the 1.20 at Cheltenham today.
Spittin' also runs George Ridsdale (also not one of my qualifiers) in the opener at Donny tomorrow in a handicap, he was a bit disappointing last time at Catterick, but maybe the combination of bad ground and penalty did for him. His previous win at Musselburgh is working out with the runner-up El Picador winning easily recently.
I see the sole 3YO in the field, Repetito (8-1), won the 1.20 at Cheltenham today.
Grade 2, 2.45 Doncaster
My only qualifier in the Grade 2 at Doncaster is Robeam, who won comfortably on his hurdles and stable debut at Sedgefield when well backed, in what probably wasn't the strongest of races, and I picked him last time at Newcastle on heavy ground under a penalty when he was up against Navajo Pass (who was worn down only close home under his penalty, and also runs here) and some other much higher-rated recruits off the Flat, and he wasn't good enough.
So unless the better ground makes a difference, it's hard to see where the improvement is going to come from, and not surprisingly he's been put in as the outsider of the six runners.
The intriguing one is French import Tombee Du Ciel, who's being pitched into a Grade 2 on his debut for Nicky Henderson, with James Reveley over to ride him, and no surprise that he has been put in the short-priced favourite.
Lord Lamington was the beneficiary at Market Rasen when the heavily backed Zoffee made one mistake too many, but he travelled well through the race despite the doubt about soft ground based on his Flat form, and who knows, maybe he'd have won whatever.
No selection
The bad news is I probably will be posting selections for the other two 3YO races
My only qualifier in the Grade 2 at Doncaster is Robeam, who won comfortably on his hurdles and stable debut at Sedgefield when well backed, in what probably wasn't the strongest of races, and I picked him last time at Newcastle on heavy ground under a penalty when he was up against Navajo Pass (who was worn down only close home under his penalty, and also runs here) and some other much higher-rated recruits off the Flat, and he wasn't good enough.
So unless the better ground makes a difference, it's hard to see where the improvement is going to come from, and not surprisingly he's been put in as the outsider of the six runners.
The intriguing one is French import Tombee Du Ciel, who's being pitched into a Grade 2 on his debut for Nicky Henderson, with James Reveley over to ride him, and no surprise that he has been put in the short-priced favourite.
Lord Lamington was the beneficiary at Market Rasen when the heavily backed Zoffee made one mistake too many, but he travelled well through the race despite the doubt about soft ground based on his Flat form, and who knows, maybe he'd have won whatever.
No selection
The bad news is I probably will be posting selections for the other two 3YO races
George,
You may already know, but Tremwedge, declared for the Cheltenham race, changed hands for £80k at the Cheltenham sale this evening. New trainer is Alan King. Might still run but it seems unlikely.
You may already know, but Tremwedge, declared for the Cheltenham race, changed hands for £80k at the Cheltenham sale this evening. New trainer is Alan King. Might still run but it seems unlikely.
Cheers, Anorak. Obviously King already has Group Stage declared to run, so it would be a surprise if they both are allowed to take their chance.
Group Stage, 1pt win @ 15-2, 12.10 Cheltenham
I've just the one qualifier at Cheltenham and it's Group Stage. He's only rated 68 on the Flat, though his form did include finishing second to a subsequent Listed winner.
He took time to get on top when winning making a winning debut over hurdles at Ludlow, but was strong at the finish, and the form is working out OK, with the runner-up since finishing placed in the recent Aintree Listed fillies' race, and the third horse winning the other day at Fontwell.
This is obviously a lot tougher and he's carrying 4lb penalty too, but he appeals as the sort his yard could do well with in this sphere.
Wee Jim, 1pt EW @ 50-1, 12.30 Fairhouse
Majority Share, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 12.30 Fairyhouse
I have three qualifiers in the opener at Fairyhouse: Wolf Prince, Wee Jim and Majority Share
It takes a big leap of faith to support Wee Jim, who was initially rated 92 at the end of his 2YO season under the care of Jason Ward, but he's been disappointing this year in Ireland for his current yard and his mark has fallen to 70. He's a qualifier and he's a big price, so I'll take a chance in the hope the switch of code can bring out the latent talent that he possesses.
Wolf Prince and Majority Share both ran in the race won by the impressive Aspire Tower at Punchestown last month when I wrote beforehand :
Wolf Prince, who is currently rated 77, has returned from a 10 month absence this year to run two good races in defeat from three efforts for Amy Murphy, and has now joined Gavin Cromwell. Soft ground and stamina are unlikely to be an issue, and he looks an interesting recruit for his respected stable, with Conor McNamara taking 7lb off. However, he has been weak in the betting and his new stable also run the seemingly more fancied Yafordadoe, who makes his hurdling debut on the back of two 7f wins and is now rated 78 on the level.
Majority Share ran well from the front in a maiden race at Clonmel back in April, and although she just failed to hang on for a place, the time was the quickest of six races at the trip on the day, and the winner Encapsulation subsequently went onto Listed success. I suppose therefore it's disappointing she's been well held in three handicaps since off relatively low marks (though might have needed her latest run at Dundalk after a few weeks break).
Her hurdling debut at Gowran over 7 weeks ago came in a race that might not have been the strongest because even though she finished second in a field of sixteen starters, she was beaten 33 lengths and was left second only after an unseat at the second last. However, while it's easy pick holes in the form as the easy winner Leahman has been beaten twice since (though ran respectably under a penalty on his latest start), it could be he needs good ground to be seen to best effect which he hasn't had since.
Majority Share looks up against it on Flat ratings and could do with hurdling better, but easier ground may help this daughter of Born To Sea, and it wouldn't totally surprise if she outruns her odds.
Wolf Prince ran well to finish 3rd, albeit no match for the winner, but Majority Share didn't get very far, racing freely and soon pulled up with a slipped saddle. I'll give another chance to Majority Share at the prices, in the hope she's more relaxed this time.
I've just the one qualifier at Cheltenham and it's Group Stage. He's only rated 68 on the Flat, though his form did include finishing second to a subsequent Listed winner.
He took time to get on top when winning making a winning debut over hurdles at Ludlow, but was strong at the finish, and the form is working out OK, with the runner-up since finishing placed in the recent Aintree Listed fillies' race, and the third horse winning the other day at Fontwell.
This is obviously a lot tougher and he's carrying 4lb penalty too, but he appeals as the sort his yard could do well with in this sphere.
Wee Jim, 1pt EW @ 50-1, 12.30 Fairhouse
Majority Share, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 12.30 Fairyhouse
I have three qualifiers in the opener at Fairyhouse: Wolf Prince, Wee Jim and Majority Share
It takes a big leap of faith to support Wee Jim, who was initially rated 92 at the end of his 2YO season under the care of Jason Ward, but he's been disappointing this year in Ireland for his current yard and his mark has fallen to 70. He's a qualifier and he's a big price, so I'll take a chance in the hope the switch of code can bring out the latent talent that he possesses.
Wolf Prince and Majority Share both ran in the race won by the impressive Aspire Tower at Punchestown last month when I wrote beforehand :
Wolf Prince, who is currently rated 77, has returned from a 10 month absence this year to run two good races in defeat from three efforts for Amy Murphy, and has now joined Gavin Cromwell. Soft ground and stamina are unlikely to be an issue, and he looks an interesting recruit for his respected stable, with Conor McNamara taking 7lb off. However, he has been weak in the betting and his new stable also run the seemingly more fancied Yafordadoe, who makes his hurdling debut on the back of two 7f wins and is now rated 78 on the level.
Majority Share ran well from the front in a maiden race at Clonmel back in April, and although she just failed to hang on for a place, the time was the quickest of six races at the trip on the day, and the winner Encapsulation subsequently went onto Listed success. I suppose therefore it's disappointing she's been well held in three handicaps since off relatively low marks (though might have needed her latest run at Dundalk after a few weeks break).
Her hurdling debut at Gowran over 7 weeks ago came in a race that might not have been the strongest because even though she finished second in a field of sixteen starters, she was beaten 33 lengths and was left second only after an unseat at the second last. However, while it's easy pick holes in the form as the easy winner Leahman has been beaten twice since (though ran respectably under a penalty on his latest start), it could be he needs good ground to be seen to best effect which he hasn't had since.
Majority Share looks up against it on Flat ratings and could do with hurdling better, but easier ground may help this daughter of Born To Sea, and it wouldn't totally surprise if she outruns her odds.
Wolf Prince ran well to finish 3rd, albeit no match for the winner, but Majority Share didn't get very far, racing freely and soon pulled up with a slipped saddle. I'll give another chance to Majority Share at the prices, in the hope she's more relaxed this time.
8-1 at the time of posting chav with 2 major firms, but if you want to have a barstewards enquiry about it and knock me back to 15-2, I'm not going to protest too much for the sake of half a point!
Hopefully he'll drift anyway and I'll claim the BOG price!
Hopefully he'll drift anyway and I'll claim the BOG price!
I also chose Group Stage before reading your thread George so here's hoping.
Good luck to us both, sageform
Unlike Spittin's that just ran at Donny, the market vibes for this Elysian Flame are positive
Unlike Spittin's that just ran at Donny, the market vibes for this Elysian Flame are positive
Short of speed. Elysian Flame very promising for next time.
A poor day. Group Stage ran OK, losing third place late on. Majority Share seemed to have an easy enough time on the front end but didn't stay on the heavy ground..
The next juvenile hurdle is at Catterick on Tuesday.
Running P/L: +191.2
The next juvenile hurdle is at Catterick on Tuesday.
Running P/L: +191.2
Bullion Boss, 1pt win @ 9-1, 12.55 Catterick
Cawthorne Lad, 1pt win @ 25-1, 12.55 Catterick
I have 5 qualifiers: Bullion Boss, Cawthorne Lad, Fume, Glorious Dane and Sea Art.
Bullion Boss disappointed on his stable and hurdle debut at Musselburgh when well backed, but I took a chance on him last time at Wetherby and he shaped a lot better, not knocked about from the home turn but still keeping on well enough for 4th, finishing not far behind the second placed horse Artistic Language, who reopposes today and is the current favourite, with My Strong Man, who also runs here, fifth.
A 5lb claimer takes over in the saddle and he wants this for a mark, so it will be interesting to see which way he goes in the betting.
Glorious Dane was another selected on this thread last time out when he finished a well held 5th at Market Rasen; that was behind two relatively highly rated recruits off the Flat, one of which (Lord Lamington) finished a good second in the Grade 2 at Doncaster on Staurday.
This is easier and of those with hurdling experience he comes out top on the ratings, but another who wants this for a mark, and as he doesn't look the biggest, not sure how much scope he has for this game.
Sea Art has a bit to find on Flat ratings with a few of these, but he looks an interesting recruit for the John Quinn yard, having signed off for William Knight with a 13f win round Bath on good to soft. He clearly stayed well on the Flat and one wonders if he may need a stiffer test over hurdles, and it will be interesting to gauge market expectations.
Fume is by Frankel but out of a Camacho mare and he had been kept mainly to 6/7f on the Flat, until his latest start 73 days ago when returning from a break and upped markedly in trip to 12f at Wolverhampton, but after pulling hard he failed to see the trip out, so stamina is a query now hurdling.
He's currently rated 65 on the Flat, but had a peak rating of 75, and while he's been kept away from soft ground thus far, he does have soft ground influences in his pedigree.
Cawthorne Lad has plenty to find on Flat ratings and is another with stamina to prove given his win came over 7f and he has yet to race beyond a mile on the Flat. My notebook run for him came over a mile on soft ground at Thirsk as a 2YO, when he wasn't helped by being hampered 2f out and then lugging to his left, but I thought he kept on quite well, and the dam's side of his pedigree is encouraging for staying longer trips.
Summary Sea Art looks an interesting contender, but at the prices I'll take a couple of the others against the field. Bullion Boss has nearly 5 lengths to make up on Artistic Language on their Wetherby run from last time, and given Bullion Boss wasn't given a hard ride perhaps he'll be one for handicaps in due course, but a chance is taken at the odds.
Cawthorne Lad has a good bit to find on Flat ratings and maybe he'll need this initial hurdling experience, but from my notebook run and the dam's side of his pedigree, I suspect he has more stamina than may be apparent from his Flat form.
Cawthorne Lad, 1pt win @ 25-1, 12.55 Catterick
I have 5 qualifiers: Bullion Boss, Cawthorne Lad, Fume, Glorious Dane and Sea Art.
Bullion Boss disappointed on his stable and hurdle debut at Musselburgh when well backed, but I took a chance on him last time at Wetherby and he shaped a lot better, not knocked about from the home turn but still keeping on well enough for 4th, finishing not far behind the second placed horse Artistic Language, who reopposes today and is the current favourite, with My Strong Man, who also runs here, fifth.
A 5lb claimer takes over in the saddle and he wants this for a mark, so it will be interesting to see which way he goes in the betting.
Glorious Dane was another selected on this thread last time out when he finished a well held 5th at Market Rasen; that was behind two relatively highly rated recruits off the Flat, one of which (Lord Lamington) finished a good second in the Grade 2 at Doncaster on Staurday.
This is easier and of those with hurdling experience he comes out top on the ratings, but another who wants this for a mark, and as he doesn't look the biggest, not sure how much scope he has for this game.
Sea Art has a bit to find on Flat ratings with a few of these, but he looks an interesting recruit for the John Quinn yard, having signed off for William Knight with a 13f win round Bath on good to soft. He clearly stayed well on the Flat and one wonders if he may need a stiffer test over hurdles, and it will be interesting to gauge market expectations.
Fume is by Frankel but out of a Camacho mare and he had been kept mainly to 6/7f on the Flat, until his latest start 73 days ago when returning from a break and upped markedly in trip to 12f at Wolverhampton, but after pulling hard he failed to see the trip out, so stamina is a query now hurdling.
He's currently rated 65 on the Flat, but had a peak rating of 75, and while he's been kept away from soft ground thus far, he does have soft ground influences in his pedigree.
Cawthorne Lad has plenty to find on Flat ratings and is another with stamina to prove given his win came over 7f and he has yet to race beyond a mile on the Flat. My notebook run for him came over a mile on soft ground at Thirsk as a 2YO, when he wasn't helped by being hampered 2f out and then lugging to his left, but I thought he kept on quite well, and the dam's side of his pedigree is encouraging for staying longer trips.
Summary Sea Art looks an interesting contender, but at the prices I'll take a couple of the others against the field. Bullion Boss has nearly 5 lengths to make up on Artistic Language on their Wetherby run from last time, and given Bullion Boss wasn't given a hard ride perhaps he'll be one for handicaps in due course, but a chance is taken at the odds.
Cawthorne Lad has a good bit to find on Flat ratings and maybe he'll need this initial hurdling experience, but from my notebook run and the dam's side of his pedigree, I suspect he has more stamina than may be apparent from his Flat form.
Thanks for the kind words, Foyles
The interesting one from the current market is Fume, despite the stamina doubts he's only around 10-1 on here
The interesting one from the current market is Fume, despite the stamina doubts he's only around 10-1 on here
Unfortunately Mad, I opted not to select him EW, thinking it would be all or nothing, but at least he proved my comments about his stamina to be correct 
yep i backed cawthorn to win ! win or nothing for me ,unlucky george .
It's not our day Foyles when a totally unfancied Jonjo hoss does ya
I suppose the disappointment was Sea Art, who had a nice position turning in but was readily left behind.
The Wetherby form didn't hold up at all, but at least Bullion Boss should have a workable mark now, and being by War Command, my suspicion is he wants better ground, despite having run OK on softer.
I wasn't sure what to expect from Glorious Dane, but a good run and he franked the MR form.
I suppose the disappointment was Sea Art, who had a nice position turning in but was readily left behind.
The Wetherby form didn't hold up at all, but at least Bullion Boss should have a workable mark now, and being by War Command, my suspicion is he wants better ground, despite having run OK on softer.
I wasn't sure what to expect from Glorious Dane, but a good run and he franked the MR form.
it's always annoying Virgin when one of ya picks hits the frame at big odds and you didn't have it EW, still that's the psychology of it, we move on 
There's a juvenile hurdle to open the card at Newbury tomorrow
Running P/L: +188.2
There's a juvenile hurdle to open the card at Newbury tomorrow
Running P/L: +188.2
Deplasterer, I think the best way to do it if you're doing a thread like this, is to make a decision at the start, say for example, 20-1 or bigger, go EW, anything under 20s, straight win
Of course the counterargument is that longterm you'd be better off having the 2pts on the win every time, but take for example, Geyser, the thread's big winner, I was never going to have 2pts on the win, but going EW got 30 pts profit for the place, so perhaps they should be treated as two separate approaches.
Of course the counterargument is that longterm you'd be better off having the 2pts on the win every time, but take for example, Geyser, the thread's big winner, I was never going to have 2pts on the win, but going EW got 30 pts profit for the place, so perhaps they should be treated as two separate approaches.
Yeah, swings and roundabouts with ew George. 190 pts is fantastic for 2 months, keep up the good work
Ta Deplasterer. The thread ends on Dec 31, as stated in the opening post, so hopefully not too much more damage can be done to the thread's P/L!
* I've robbed myself of a point, 2 pts lost today, not 3 
Running P/L: +189.2
Running P/L: +189.2
John Betjeman, 1pt win @ 11-2, 12.20 Newbury
I've just the one qualifier and it's John Betjeman. He was eligible for selection when he placed at Fontwell last week at decent odds, but I bottled it due to a combination of his stamina being a query, and the presence of short-priced French import. As it turned out, he seemed to stay the trip well enough to finish second despite having been keen enough, and although that race probably lacked depth, the winner had previously run well behind Group Stage, who has since run respectably in a stronger race at Cheltenham under a penalty.
Fraser Island has joined Nicky Henderson from Mark Johnston, and while he only has 2lb in hand of John Betjeman on current Flat ratings, he was rated a good bit higher previously.
The run of Rafiot looked too bad to be true last time at Huntingdon, but his previous third at Kempton hasn't worked out too badly given the runner up has since won and then run well in Grade 2 company. Rafiot has the highest current Flat rating of these based on his French form, and while stamina is a slight query, he would have claims if back to his Kempton form.
Deebee has a bit to find on current Flat ratings, but has undergone wind surgery and joined Jonjo O'Neill's stable, which was successful with a stable debutant in the juvenile hurdle at Catterick yesterday.
Sir Canford has plenty to find on Flat ratings, but is unexposed on turf, and is a half-brother to a 125-rated winning hurdler.
I've just the one qualifier and it's John Betjeman. He was eligible for selection when he placed at Fontwell last week at decent odds, but I bottled it due to a combination of his stamina being a query, and the presence of short-priced French import. As it turned out, he seemed to stay the trip well enough to finish second despite having been keen enough, and although that race probably lacked depth, the winner had previously run well behind Group Stage, who has since run respectably in a stronger race at Cheltenham under a penalty.
Fraser Island has joined Nicky Henderson from Mark Johnston, and while he only has 2lb in hand of John Betjeman on current Flat ratings, he was rated a good bit higher previously.
The run of Rafiot looked too bad to be true last time at Huntingdon, but his previous third at Kempton hasn't worked out too badly given the runner up has since won and then run well in Grade 2 company. Rafiot has the highest current Flat rating of these based on his French form, and while stamina is a slight query, he would have claims if back to his Kempton form.
Deebee has a bit to find on current Flat ratings, but has undergone wind surgery and joined Jonjo O'Neill's stable, which was successful with a stable debutant in the juvenile hurdle at Catterick yesterday.
Sir Canford has plenty to find on Flat ratings, but is unexposed on turf, and is a half-brother to a 125-rated winning hurdler.
JB ran alright to make the frame but was no match for Fraser Island.
I think that's it for juvenile hurdles this side of Christmas, so unless I have any qualifiers running in handicaps, a break of at least a week.
Running P/L: +188.2
I think that's it for juvenile hurdles this side of Christmas, so unless I have any qualifiers running in handicaps, a break of at least a week.
Running P/L: +188.2
Three juvenile races on Boxing Day, including a Grade 2 at Leopardstown.
I don't have any qualifiers at Limerick, and my only qualifier at Fontwell is Manucci, who I selected on his hurdles debut over C/D, when he ran into Goshen
There's nothing of Goshen's calibre in this field, though he is up against the experienced French import I Like Him, who ran well to be third at Warwick on his UK debut.
Manucci is currently top priced 5-4, so happy to pass on this occasion.
Post for Leopardstown to follow shortly.
I don't have any qualifiers at Limerick, and my only qualifier at Fontwell is Manucci, who I selected on his hurdles debut over C/D, when he ran into Goshen
There's nothing of Goshen's calibre in this field, though he is up against the experienced French import I Like Him, who ran well to be third at Warwick on his UK debut.
Manucci is currently top priced 5-4, so happy to pass on this occasion.
Post for Leopardstown to follow shortly.
Wolf Prince, 1pt EW @ 12-1
Clemencia, 1pt win @ 8-1
I have 4 qualifiers in this Grade 2, A Wave Of The Sea, Aspire Tower, Clemencia and Wolf Prince.
A Wave Of The Sea went down by 2.25 lengths when giving 4lb to his stablemate Cerberus in a Grade 3 at Fairyhouse last time, and RPRs have him 5lb and upwards clear of his rivals today, but he has been weak in the betting, perhaps because Mark Walsh has seemingly opted to ride the other JP McManus-owned runner Aramax, who makes his debut here for Gordon Elliott, having previously been with Guillaume Macaire, for whom he won a 6-runner affair at Vittel nearly six months ago.
Of those with an official UK / Ire Flat rating, Aspire Tower is rated the highest, and he made an impressive hurdling debut for Henry de Bromhead at Punchestown, when powering clear in the home straight from a well backed rival, with today's opponent Wolf Prince in third.
Wolf Prince has since easily won in testing ground at Fairyhouse, and while he looks up against it to reverse previous form with Aspire Tower, he hasn't been with Gavin Cromwell for long and there could be improvement to come.
Clemencia did the thread a big favour (33-1 morning price) when winning at Cork on his second hurdles start, and while he has plenty to find on Flat ratings with some of his rivals today, he impressed with his hurdling and how he pulled clear of Pasley, who had previously finished in front of Tremwedge, who subsequently finished third behind Cerberus and A Wave Of The Sea at Fairyhouse.
Sacchoandvanzetti was carrying a 7lb penalty when beating Pasley and Tremwedge at Punchestown, and even though he's been put in as one of the outsiders for this, I wouldn't want to underestimate him.
Echoes Of Rain won twice on the Flat in France from 5 starts, including when last seen when ridden by an 8lb claimer, and while she obviously warrants respect being pitched in at this level on her hurdles debut by her powerful yard, she appears to face a tough task.
Conclusion: Aspire Tower not surprisingly has been backed into favouritism on the back of his impressive hurdling debut, and while A Wave Of The Sea has been easy to back, he still looks the one to beat, particularly as he isn't penalised this time and has the cheekpieces on perhaps in an attempt to improve his hurdling.
As usual I'm going to let the prices dictate: Wolf Prince would appear well up against it with Aspire Tower on their Punchestown meeting, but he hasn't been with Gavin Cromwell long and their may be improvement to come having since won easily at Fairyhouse 12 days ago.
Clemencia has plenty to find on Flat ratings with a few of these, but impressed with his hurdling when scooting clear at Cork and justifying solid market support.
Clemencia, 1pt win @ 8-1
I have 4 qualifiers in this Grade 2, A Wave Of The Sea, Aspire Tower, Clemencia and Wolf Prince.
A Wave Of The Sea went down by 2.25 lengths when giving 4lb to his stablemate Cerberus in a Grade 3 at Fairyhouse last time, and RPRs have him 5lb and upwards clear of his rivals today, but he has been weak in the betting, perhaps because Mark Walsh has seemingly opted to ride the other JP McManus-owned runner Aramax, who makes his debut here for Gordon Elliott, having previously been with Guillaume Macaire, for whom he won a 6-runner affair at Vittel nearly six months ago.
Of those with an official UK / Ire Flat rating, Aspire Tower is rated the highest, and he made an impressive hurdling debut for Henry de Bromhead at Punchestown, when powering clear in the home straight from a well backed rival, with today's opponent Wolf Prince in third.
Wolf Prince has since easily won in testing ground at Fairyhouse, and while he looks up against it to reverse previous form with Aspire Tower, he hasn't been with Gavin Cromwell for long and there could be improvement to come.
Clemencia did the thread a big favour (33-1 morning price) when winning at Cork on his second hurdles start, and while he has plenty to find on Flat ratings with some of his rivals today, he impressed with his hurdling and how he pulled clear of Pasley, who had previously finished in front of Tremwedge, who subsequently finished third behind Cerberus and A Wave Of The Sea at Fairyhouse.
Sacchoandvanzetti was carrying a 7lb penalty when beating Pasley and Tremwedge at Punchestown, and even though he's been put in as one of the outsiders for this, I wouldn't want to underestimate him.
Echoes Of Rain won twice on the Flat in France from 5 starts, including when last seen when ridden by an 8lb claimer, and while she obviously warrants respect being pitched in at this level on her hurdles debut by her powerful yard, she appears to face a tough task.
Conclusion: Aspire Tower not surprisingly has been backed into favouritism on the back of his impressive hurdling debut, and while A Wave Of The Sea has been easy to back, he still looks the one to beat, particularly as he isn't penalised this time and has the cheekpieces on perhaps in an attempt to improve his hurdling.
As usual I'm going to let the prices dictate: Wolf Prince would appear well up against it with Aspire Tower on their Punchestown meeting, but he hasn't been with Gavin Cromwell long and their may be improvement to come having since won easily at Fairyhouse 12 days ago.
Clemencia has plenty to find on Flat ratings with a few of these, but impressed with his hurdling when scooting clear at Cork and justifying solid market support.
No damage done as Wolf Prince finished second, albeit no match for the strong staying Aspire Tower.
Clemencia ran alright, fading out of the places late on, to finish behind three who have plenty in hand on him on Flat ratings, and perhaps he'll be seen to better effect on better ground.
Busy day tomorrow with the Grade 1 Finale hurdle at Chepstow (but no Goshen
), a 22 runner juvenile hurdle to kick the card off at Leopardstown, and races at Kempton and Wetherby too.
Running P/L: +188.6
Clemencia ran alright, fading out of the places late on, to finish behind three who have plenty in hand on him on Flat ratings, and perhaps he'll be seen to better effect on better ground.
Busy day tomorrow with the Grade 1 Finale hurdle at Chepstow (but no Goshen
), a 22 runner juvenile hurdle to kick the card off at Leopardstown, and races at Kempton and Wetherby too.Running P/L: +188.6
My two qualifiers in the Finale Hurdle are the first two in the betting Allmakind and Cerberus, so easy enough to pass at the prices.
Rowland Ward is my only qualifier in the Kempton juvenile race. This is potentially a stronger race than he ran in at Warwick, where he fell when making some headway from a poor position, and there is a question about whether soft ground is ideal. So another pass.
Cawthorne Lad, 1pt win @ 4-1, 1.30 Wetherby
At Wetherby my only qualifier is Cawthorne Lad, who I selected at Catterick on his hurdles debut when he finished runner-up at a big price, but unfortunately I didn't take the EW option on that occasion. His jumping could have been better, and there was a suspicion he was flattered to an extent having not been put into the heat of the battle before making late headway past beaten horses, but he's unexposed at longer trips having not raced beyond a mile on the Flat, and he's entitled to improve for that initial experience, particularly in the hurdling department.
Goobinator has been put in at odds-on following a ready win over C/D on his hurdling debut. The second, third and fifth from that race, however, finished well behind Cawthorne Lad at Catterick, so it will be disappointing if he can't go close in receipt of 6lb from the favourite.
Rowland Ward is my only qualifier in the Kempton juvenile race. This is potentially a stronger race than he ran in at Warwick, where he fell when making some headway from a poor position, and there is a question about whether soft ground is ideal. So another pass.
Cawthorne Lad, 1pt win @ 4-1, 1.30 Wetherby
At Wetherby my only qualifier is Cawthorne Lad, who I selected at Catterick on his hurdles debut when he finished runner-up at a big price, but unfortunately I didn't take the EW option on that occasion
. His jumping could have been better, and there was a suspicion he was flattered to an extent having not been put into the heat of the battle before making late headway past beaten horses, but he's unexposed at longer trips having not raced beyond a mile on the Flat, and he's entitled to improve for that initial experience, particularly in the hurdling department.Goobinator has been put in at odds-on following a ready win over C/D on his hurdling debut. The second, third and fifth from that race, however, finished well behind Cawthorne Lad at Catterick, so it will be disappointing if he can't go close in receipt of 6lb from the favourite.
A fair shout but I'm far from convinced that Cawthorne has the stamina for the winter game. He might need a sharp 2m like Catt or Muss to poss get away with it
Good luck though
Good luck though
You may be right, intheknow, and I as said in my little write up, there was a suspicion he was just running past beaten horses having been held on to at Catterick, but there is stamina on his dam's side of the pedigree and I suspected from my notebook run for him, that he might have more stamina than his Flat form would suggest.
Pepperoni Pete, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 12.05 Leopardstown
Theatre Of War, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 12.05 Leopardstown
I have 4 qualifiers: Takarengo, Pepperoni Pete, Theatre Of War and Travel On.
Takarengo progressed well on the Flat this year and was put up 9lb to a mark of 84 after winning at Leopardstown over 12f when last seen in October. He won't fail for stamina or soft ground, and looks an interesting recruit.
It remains to be seen which way Travel On goes ability wise, given blinkers were resorted to on his final start for John Gosden, when he finished a tailed off last of seven at Newmarket. He had previously run well off a mark of 93 at Ascot in September, so the ability is there and relatively recently, if his new stable can get him back to that level. He cost his new connections 65,000 gns, and the stable did do well with the Ex-Gosden inmate Raa Atoll on the Flat earlier this year.
Theatre Of War has clearly had issues jumping but he has shown enough to suggest he has a future in this sphere. He has been kept to a soundish surface so far in his four hurdle starts for Gavin Cromwell, but he ran well enough on soft / heavy on the Flat for his previous yard to suggest he should be fine on softer ground.
Pepperoni Pete had been running well round Dundalk until his latest start when again he was keen enough. He was a bit disappointing on his sole hurdles start to date back in August, sent off at 7-2 in a field of 16 at Roscommon, when soft ground shouldn't have been issue judged from his Flat form, but perhaps stamina was. He could do with settling better, and his jockey Paddy Kennedy has only ridden two winners from 88 rides so far this Irish jumps season, but a chance is taken at the prices given he at least comes here fit after recent runs on the Flat.
Conclusion: A big field and track position / luck in running could make a difference. Of my 4 possibles, Takarengo is perhaps the most interesting if ready to go after a short break, but as usual the prices dictate the selections, and I'll take Theatre Of War and Pepperoni Pete EW against the field.
Theatre Of War, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 12.05 Leopardstown
I have 4 qualifiers: Takarengo, Pepperoni Pete, Theatre Of War and Travel On.
Takarengo progressed well on the Flat this year and was put up 9lb to a mark of 84 after winning at Leopardstown over 12f when last seen in October. He won't fail for stamina or soft ground, and looks an interesting recruit.
It remains to be seen which way Travel On goes ability wise, given blinkers were resorted to on his final start for John Gosden, when he finished a tailed off last of seven at Newmarket. He had previously run well off a mark of 93 at Ascot in September, so the ability is there and relatively recently, if his new stable can get him back to that level. He cost his new connections 65,000 gns, and the stable did do well with the Ex-Gosden inmate Raa Atoll on the Flat earlier this year.
Theatre Of War has clearly had issues jumping but he has shown enough to suggest he has a future in this sphere. He has been kept to a soundish surface so far in his four hurdle starts for Gavin Cromwell, but he ran well enough on soft / heavy on the Flat for his previous yard to suggest he should be fine on softer ground.
Pepperoni Pete had been running well round Dundalk until his latest start when again he was keen enough. He was a bit disappointing on his sole hurdles start to date back in August, sent off at 7-2 in a field of 16 at Roscommon, when soft ground shouldn't have been issue judged from his Flat form, but perhaps stamina was. He could do with settling better, and his jockey Paddy Kennedy has only ridden two winners from 88 rides so far this Irish jumps season, but a chance is taken at the prices given he at least comes here fit after recent runs on the Flat.
Conclusion: A big field and track position / luck in running could make a difference. Of my 4 possibles, Takarengo is perhaps the most interesting if ready to go after a short break, but as usual the prices dictate the selections, and I'll take Theatre Of War and Pepperoni Pete EW against the field.
Cheers striding and Mad'.
It looked like he had loads left given how spring heeled he was at the last (touched around 1.33 in the run) but unfortunately couldn't get past the eventual winner. He went off over 12-1 for the place on here.
Pepperoni Pete was again too keen, probably went for home too soon (touched around 3s in the run?) and didn't see it out.
This Cawthorne Lad has been very easy to back and has drifted to 7-1 on here
It looked like he had loads left given how spring heeled he was at the last (touched around 1.33 in the run) but unfortunately couldn't get past the eventual winner. He went off over 12-1 for the place on here.
Pepperoni Pete was again too keen, probably went for home too soon (touched around 3s in the run?) and didn't see it out.
This Cawthorne Lad has been very easy to back and has drifted to 7-1 on here
I hope Sage had a few quid on that Stuart Edmunds winner there at Kempton we mentioned how very promising that debut was when falling.
I just don't play these races but he may well have done so at a nice price there today.
I just don't play these races but he may well have done so at a nice price there today.
A typical quiet one last time out for such a contest when the stablemate won with a positive ride.
If my only qualifier wins at 9-1 and I didn't pick it, it's a balls up.
He wasn't that big earlier, but I made a call and got it wrong.
The stablemate who won the race at Warwick, runs in the Grade 1 at Chepstow, currently 25-1.
He wasn't that big earlier, but I made a call and got it wrong.
The stablemate who won the race at Warwick, runs in the Grade 1 at Chepstow, currently 25-1.
You can afford to let one off the line now and then with your record
When I saw the 9-1 flash up Mad', it was one of these moments
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I didn't think you got out of bed for less than 50.0 George.
Another break even day, with Theatre of War's placing covering the day's 5 pts stake.
Cawthorne Lad looked like he was held between the last two flights, but was running on and closing after the last when having switch to all over the shop. We'll never know if it was the difference between winning and losing.
There's a 17 runner juvenile hurdle to look forward to at Newbury tomorrow
Running P/L: +188.6
Cawthorne Lad looked like he was held between the last two flights, but was running on and closing after the last when having switch to all over the shop. We'll never know if it was the difference between winning and losing.
There's a 17 runner juvenile hurdle to look forward to at Newbury tomorrow
Running P/L: +188.6
Correction, there's a 3YO and upwards "Introductory" hurdle at Newbury tomorrow, for which I have no qualifiers.
The next all 3YO hurdle is for fillies at Doncaster on Sunday.
The next all 3YO hurdle is for fillies at Doncaster on Sunday.
Yes, Cawthorne might be considered a bit unlucky and sure proved me wrong with doubts about its stamina
Sorry for aftertiming but as Striding said, I was keen on Rowland Ward and had a small bet at 9/1. I was away for 2 days so limited access to the internet but 3yo's in Aspire Tower yesterday and RW and Allmankind today saved me from a losing 2 days. I haven't seen any live racing apart from Slate House (won) and the KG (lost) so no idea how well the 3yos won until I have time to watch replays.
Red Archangel, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 1.00 Doncaster
Cuban Sun, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 1.00 Doncaster
I have two qualifiers, Red Archangel and Cuban Sun.
Red Archangel is only rated 55 on the Flat, but was set a difficult task on her hurdling debut when pitched into Listed company at Aintree earlier this month, when having chased the leaders for a fair way, she weakened quickly in the home straight. She's in calmer waters here and entitled to improve for that initial experience, which came after a near four month break, so hopefully will be more competitive today at the business end.
Cuban Sun attained a peak official rating of 75 on the Flat after beating 13 rivals over 10f on good to soft at Nottingham (inner track) back in April, but ran to form only once in six subsequent starts, when finishing second of six over 10f on soft ground back at Nottingham on the outer track in August. It's possible the step up to twelve furlongs might have partially been to blame for a couple of those defeats (weakened having led / raced prominently), so stamina is a query on this switch of codes.
Cuban Sun has left James Given and joined Kelly Morgan, who I don't know much about, but 11 winners from 52 runners NH / Flat combined so far in the UK sounds a decent strike rate to be going on with!
Cuban Sun, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 1.00 Doncaster
I have two qualifiers, Red Archangel and Cuban Sun.
Red Archangel is only rated 55 on the Flat, but was set a difficult task on her hurdling debut when pitched into Listed company at Aintree earlier this month, when having chased the leaders for a fair way, she weakened quickly in the home straight. She's in calmer waters here and entitled to improve for that initial experience, which came after a near four month break, so hopefully will be more competitive today at the business end.
Cuban Sun attained a peak official rating of 75 on the Flat after beating 13 rivals over 10f on good to soft at Nottingham (inner track) back in April, but ran to form only once in six subsequent starts, when finishing second of six over 10f on soft ground back at Nottingham on the outer track in August. It's possible the step up to twelve furlongs might have partially been to blame for a couple of those defeats (weakened having led / raced prominently), so stamina is a query on this switch of codes.
Cuban Sun has left James Given and joined Kelly Morgan, who I don't know much about, but 11 winners from 52 runners NH / Flat combined so far in the UK sounds a decent strike rate to be going on with!
Can't get enthused about a fillies race at Doncaster so I will have to study Taunton once the entries are confirmed.
George,
Kelly Morgan is the second daughter of ex trainer Kevin Morgan to take out a licence - her sister is Laura Morgan, who trains at the same yard as her father and Laura was previously travelling head girl for Jonjo O'Neill.
Kelly seems to be operating as a private trainer for Johnny Weatherby - no wonder their admin charges are so high if us owners have to support his growing string of nags! She trained a runner-up in the Cheltenham Foxhunters, Top Wood, a cheap purchase from Ascot sales before taking ot a full licence.
Kelly Morgan is the second daughter of ex trainer Kevin Morgan to take out a licence - her sister is Laura Morgan, who trains at the same yard as her father and Laura was previously travelling head girl for Jonjo O'Neill.
Kelly seems to be operating as a private trainer for Johnny Weatherby - no wonder their admin charges are so high if us owners have to support his growing string of nags! She trained a runner-up in the Cheltenham Foxhunters, Top Wood, a cheap purchase from Ascot sales before taking ot a full licence.
Anorak, thanks for the info on the trainer's background, she appears to have made a bright start to her training career.
There seems to be a bit of support around for Cuban Sun, obviously I'm hoping it turns out to be well placed!
My other pick has been drifting in the betting all morning.
There seems to be a bit of support around for Cuban Sun, obviously I'm hoping it turns out to be well placed!
My other pick has been drifting in the betting all morning.
Tough luck there George, got the EW money but feels like you deserved much better
Well done George - the places keep the thread ticking over. Miss Morgan might be a name to remember if she can produce results with horses as different as elderly staying chasers and juvenile filly hurdlers.
Cheers.
Lucky, no complaints really, she seemed to get a soft enough time close to the lead, and didn't fail for stamina given how she rallied for second.
Both traded short in the run, Cuban Sun at odds-on, probably thanks to the dodgy camera angle at the last which excluded the eventual winner?
Red Archangel moved upsides looking a real threat, but either hung fire or didn't stay or both.
Thanks Anorak, I'll keep an eye on her runners.
Lucky, no complaints really, she seemed to get a soft enough time close to the lead, and didn't fail for stamina given how she rallied for second.
Both traded short in the run, Cuban Sun at odds-on, probably thanks to the dodgy camera angle at the last which excluded the eventual winner?
Red Archangel moved upsides looking a real threat, but either hung fire or didn't stay or both.
Thanks Anorak, I'll keep an eye on her runners.
Bad luck George, it is looking like a fall first time out is the key to finding 3yo winners.
sageform, not sure about that, but it will probably help the price next time.
There's a juvenile hurdle to kick the card off at Taunton tomorrow, and I also have a qualifier in the Listed fillies and mares hurdle.
Running P/L: 190.6
There's a juvenile hurdle to kick the card off at Taunton tomorrow, and I also have a qualifier in the Listed fillies and mares hurdle.
Running P/L: 190.6
what about the ones that didn't win next time after falling on debut?
Falling first time out in a juvenile hurdle didn't produce a next time out win for Desert Orchid, but I suppose he made up for that in the long run!
Plenty of those I'm sure. It does mean experience gained without having to fight out a finish so long as it is not a bad fall.
I'm sure striding won't mind checking the actual p/l, saying going back 5 seasons, for juveniles winning second time out over hurdles after falling on their debuts.
You may be proven right, sageform.
You may be proven right, sageform.
Zoffee looks very hard to beat at Taunton. 91 on the flat and 110 over hurdles is a long way clear of the rest unless the French imports are any good.
I've got two qualifiers in the juvenile hurdle, Zoffee and Hurricane Hero. Zoffee not surprisingly is odds-on given his Flat rating and how his hurdling debut at Market Rasen has worked out. Hurricane Hero is my kind of price at 80-1, but makes no appeal at this stage.
Midnights' Gift, 1pt win @ 10-1, 2.25 Taunton
Midnights Gift looks up against on ratings and being penalised 5lb, taking on her elders for the first time in this Listed contest, particularly as the ground may be softer than ideal. She has doubled in price since last night, so I'm going to risk a point at the prices, given her limitations have yet to be exposed.
Midnights' Gift, 1pt win @ 10-1, 2.25 Taunton
Midnights Gift looks up against on ratings and being penalised 5lb, taking on her elders for the first time in this Listed contest, particularly as the ground may be softer than ideal. She has doubled in price since last night, so I'm going to risk a point at the prices, given her limitations have yet to be exposed.
French form trumps me again. King and Hobbs both good with 3yos so that could be decent form to follow.
Unlucky, sageform.
Ran well, Mad, and suppose it was a bit disappointing she didn't win given the race went her way with them probably cutting each others throats up front, but the winner, who pulled hard on the way to post and took a tug in the race itself (good ride to get her covered up imo), found loads up the straight and was helped further by MG's mistake at the last.
Ran well, Mad, and suppose it was a bit disappointing she didn't win given the race went her way with them probably cutting each others throats up front, but the winner, who pulled hard on the way to post and took a tug in the race itself (good ride to get her covered up imo), found loads up the straight and was helped further by MG's mistake at the last.
Onwards to Musselburgh on Wednesday. El Picador did me a favour last time so that will do if it runs.
There is a 20 runner 3YO hurdle at Punchestown tomorrow but I don't have any qualifiers, which means, as stated in the opening post that the thread would end on December 31st, that is it.
P/L at the early prices / BOG: +189.6
P/L at Betfair SP after deduction of 2% commission: +207.59
Geyser's win at Sedgefield was the one that catapulted the thread towards a 200 pt profit, and without it the figures would have looked pretty ordinary!
P/L at the early prices / BOG: +189.6
P/L at Betfair SP after deduction of 2% commission: +207.59
Geyser's win at Sedgefield was the one that catapulted the thread towards a 200 pt profit, and without it the figures would have looked pretty ordinary!
| Date | Horse | Early Odds / BOG | Stake | finish pos | P/L | IR Low / High | BSP Profit - 2% Comm |
| 26-Oct | Guinevere | 17 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 4.4 | -1 |
| 26-Oct | Early Strike | 26 | 1 EW | 0 | -2 | -2 | |
| 27-Oct | Twenty Years On | 6.5 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3.9 | -1 |
| 30-Oct | Whistler Bowl | 8 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 4 | -1 |
| 30-Oct | Two Blondes | 10 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1.7 | -1 |
| 01-Nov | Half Bolly | 34 | 1 EW | 0 | -2 | -2 | |
| 06-Nov | Three Castles | 11 | 1 | F | -1 | 1.39 | -1 |
| 07-Nov | Geyser | 151 | 1 EW | 1 | 180 | 270 | 218.52 |
| 07-Nov | Neileta | 101 | 1 EW | 0 | -2 | -2 | |
| 08-Nov | Langholm | 8.5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | |
| 11-Nov | Catch The Cuban | 6.5 | 1 | 1 | 5.5 | 9.6 | 4.41 |
| 12-Nov | Guinevere | 29 | 1 EW | 3 | 4.6 | 5.09 | |
| 14-Nov | Say The Word | 23 | 1 EW | 0 | -2 | 4.2 | -2 |
| 16-Nov | Allmankind | 6.5 | 1 | 1 | 5.5 | 10 | 2.78 |
| 17-Nov | Manucci | 10 | 1 | 2 | -1 | -1 | |
| 17-Nov | Isle Of Wolves | 23 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | |
| 22-Nov | Neileta | 51 | 1 EW | 0 | -2 | -2 | |
| 22-Nov | Dragons Will rise | 67 | 1EW | 0 | -2 | -2 | |
| 26-Nov | Morph | 34 | 1 EW | 0 | -2 | -2 | |
| 26-Nov | Majority Share | 31 | 1 EW | 0 | -2 | -2 | |
| 27-Nov | Bullion Boss | 11 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | |
| 27-Nov | You Little Beauty | 201 | 1 EW | 0 | -2 | -2 | |
| 30-Nov | Robeam | 5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | |
| 01-Dec | Guinevere | 81 | 1 EW | 0 | -2 | -2 | |
| 01-Dec | Hammersmith | 41 | 1 EW | 0 | -2 | -2 | |
| 05-Dec | Glorious Dane | 21 | 1 EW | 0 | -2 | -2 | |
| 08-Dec | Hazran | 26 | 1 EW | 0 | -2 | -2 | |
| 08-Dec | Clemencia | 34 | 1 EW | 1 | 39.6 | 12 | 16.82 |
| 09-Dec | Kangaroo Valley | 9 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | |
| 09-Dec | Twpsyn | 67 | 1 EW | 0 | -2 | -2 | |
| 14-Dec | Group Stage | 8.5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | |
| 14-Dec | Wee Jim | 51 | 1 EW | 0 | -2 | -2 | |
| 14-Dec | Majority Share | 26 | 1 EW | 0 | -2 | -2 | |
| 17-Dec | Bullion Boss | 10 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | |
| 17-Dec | Cawthorne Lad | 29 | 1 | 2 | -1 | -1 | |
| 18-Dec | John Betjeman | 6.5 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 3.05 | -1 |
| 26-Dec | Wolf Prince | 13 | 1 EW | 2 | 1.4 | 3.85 | 0.74 |
| 26-Dec | Clemencia | 9 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 4.5 | -1 |
| 27-Dec | Pepperoni Pete | 26 | 1 EW | 0 | -2 | 3 | -2 |
| 27-Dec | Theatre of War | 21 | 1 EW | 2 | 3 | 1.34 | 11.52 |
| 27-Dec | Cawthorne Lad | 5 | 1 | 3 | -1 | -1 | |
| 29-Dec | Cuban Sun | 26 | 1 EW | 2 | 4 | 2.1 | 1.71 |
| 29-Dec | Red Archangel | 21 | 1 EW | 0 | -2 | -2 | |
| 30-Dec | Midnights Gift | 11 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2.02 | -1 |
| 189.6 | 207.59 |
Your thread encouraged a few of us to look harder at the 3yo hurdles and it has been a good exercise. I have always found a few winners with Heighlin winning the Triumph at 50/1 the highlight closely followed by another Elsworth star in Oh So Risky. That was when most good 3yos were from English or Irish yards and had good flat form. The increasing number of French and junior bumper horses have replaced the flat ones that end up on the AW or in Dubai but are much harder to rate.
WD GEORGE on another successful venture. I look forward to your next unlucky 15 thread where I will stick my beak in perhaps twice a week.
Usual stakes....£1 lucky 15 and a £2.50p EW acca. When does it begin GEORGE or have you yet to decide?
Anyways it's good to take the p1ss out of chavbow....a king without a crown.
Or should that read clown?
Usual stakes....£1 lucky 15 and a £2.50p EW acca. When does it begin GEORGE or have you yet to decide?
Anyways it's good to take the p1ss out of chavbow....a king without a crown.
Or should that read clown?
george is a bit more highbrow these days..he fraternizes with pottsy these days.
you should start a thread stewy
you should start a thread stewy
Thanks for the kind words
stewy, my next venture will indeed be the unlucky 15 / level steaks fred, and I envisage it will kick off some time during the Flat turf season in the summer, and it will be more of the same, long losing runs, hope to fluke the occasional big priced winner!
stewy, my next venture will indeed be the unlucky 15 / level steaks fred, and I envisage it will kick off some time during the Flat turf season in the summer, and it will be more of the same, long losing runs, hope to fluke the occasional big priced winner!
I look forward to participating on your new thread GEORGE. You always get a good laugh with chavers 10p lucky 31's, albeit he takes away the actual meaning of the thread. That said we need idiots like him to post more often imo.
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