hurry , a present for arbers .

elisjohn,

But will one of them

win

doesnt matter does it, you can make a profit .

I don't fancy Too Darn Hot, that is not a bet for me personally.

Likewise Slippy

so lay it, then you still have strad and koc running for you. , lay them as well , you have so many options, but hurry when fred sees this itll be 2/5

arbing with who?

2/5 Are you for real elisjohn?

back 4/5 with fred, then just lay the jg horses on here , work your maths out its . .eg lay both tomorrow say tdh 200 at 9/4 and koc 50 at 7 , then worse scenario is losing 400, so you break even with your 4/5 fred bet. if both tomorrow lose then youve got 250 in the bank, then lay strad for say 250 , he wins cost you 375,    which youve already got 250 , plus now 400 with fred. if he loses you break even on the bet.

well what price do you make j gosden to train 1 group 1 winner this week

Too Darn Hot will not win tomorrow, it's a max lay for me.

ps forgot to put 500quid on the 4/5 in above post.

im only telling you this, coz i cant get on online with them, and not able to get to shop, i.ll be backing this to whatever i can if still 4/5 in morning. { the only bad scenario is if too darn hot/ strad is a nr]

is this a wind up?

no. j gosden to train a group 1 winner this week is 4/5, considering tdarn hot is around 9/4 and strad is 6/4 , come on lads 4/5  with fred is steal of the century.{ or am i missing something here }.youve also got ko comedy running for you.

If it is steal of the century, just take all the 4/5 and dont bother laying.... no like an arber.

youve all got me thinking here if my maths is bonkers, so i,ll ask  on another thread.

Andrew.in.Sweden 17 Jun 19 19:13 Joined: 22 Apr 19 | Topic/replies: 465 | Blogger: Andrew.in.Sweden's blog
elisjohn,

But will one of them win?

What's that got to do with it?

SlippyBlue 17 Jun 19 19:34 Joined: 11 Jun 12 | Topic/replies: 28,097 | Blogger: SlippyBlue's blog
Too Darn Hot will not win tomorrow, it's a max lay for me.


What's that got to do with it?

exactly, at least one that understands, thought i was going senile.

too darn hot win/ lose got nothing to do with it, strad win/ lose as well . there is money to be made, that my post.

elisjohn,

I understand the logic now, i wasn't thinking straight.

Good luck.

Too Darn Hot 3.35 to lay = 30%
Stradivarius 2.5 to lay = 40%

So just those two come to 70%, i.e. a 4/9 shot.

And Fred is apparently offering 4/5.

Yet there are punters out there whose first reaction genuinely is "I don't fancy one of them" and "I've never understood this arbing lark."

so add k o com approx 7/1 to the mix , then whats  the approx odds , thx scream. still 4/5 online

Sorry, Andrew. Didn't see your last post.

If you can lay King at 8.0 (12.5%), then it's 82.5% (about 2/11).

A/Cs closed, and SP only in his shops for me, but there you go.

Easiest way to think about this sort of probability questions is to consider, what is the odds on none of the above winning.   So this would be a straight forward treble at reverse the odds.  4/6, 4/9 and 1/7.   This would pay 7/4.

So the converse of none of them winning, is at least one of them winning, so the odds would be 4/7

You're omitting the three possibilities of two of them winning, as well as the possibility of all three winning.

It's a patent rather than a treble.

Your maths are wrong screaming.  You cannot combine the probabilities in the way you have done, as these are independent events and not in the same market.

no 3 cant win, kocom same race as tdhot, but he might have another runner in a g1, checked but  i dont think he has [ might have missed one]

No I am not, I am taking the inverse of no winners (which is one or more winners).  Both these probabilities must = 1.0.

So if no winners is 4/7, the inverse is 7/4

im lost with the % etc , but top my head 4/5 was value .

I'd forgotten King Of Comedy was in the same race. I just looked at the two shorties, and that was enough to make Fred's offer a mad price.

Equine Flew: "one or more winners" is not the inverse of the "to lose" treble. It's the inverse of the singles, doubles and treble.

That's if they were all in different races, which they're not anyway.

thx for thisequine/ screaming, thought with the earlier posts that i was losing it.

so the best way to maximise  the 4/5, would be lay both tomorrow and hoping .  both lose ,  and then lay stra , and hoping he wins. [ i think].

has anyone had the 4/5 ?, still available

backed j gosden to train a group 1 winner this week £200 max at 4/5.
layed too darn hot £80 at 3.25     liability £150 .layed king of comedy £30 at 7, liability £100. so if tdh wins i win £10 on the bet, if koc wins i win £60.   neither win i win £110 with stradvarious  to come.                        ,

Nice one Elisjohn.

Jun 17, 2019 -- 7:34PM, SlippyBlue wrote:

Too Darn Hot will not win tomorrow, it's a max lay for me.

Told you.

good shout elisjohn

ok latest after the sjpalace, ive won 110 on that race[, less comm], so now i have layed stradivarius 100 at 2.32, so  if stradivarius wins my profit will be 160 from bfred, and 110 today minus the lay of strad 132. profit £138.. if stradivarius loses i break even .[ more or less].

i'll clarify my post, how the feck can you get on with an online book for that amount?

ive had 200 quid win with fred this morning, ive layed on here, i told you yesterday, it was a no brainer.

andrew and screaming  understood it , wasnt rocket science

listen, fair play i posted this for you all yesterday to get on

Quite a bit of work for some crumbs. Besides, you shouldn't be encouraging more arbing filth. Them and pig bookies make the gambling arena a much sadder place.

you still don't understand, how do you get on, I can't get 2 quid with them?

i dont get on  online, wasnt any work really. but pro, my thread said for arbers , crumbs yes,  rather but some might have had a few thousand on the 4/5 for odds that should have been 2/5 or more, see screaming posts then there was nice money to be had .

So after commission if Stradivarious loses you break even,if it wins you get £33 from trading or £13ish  if you arb it.

after commission if strad loses yes break even , but if strad win i make £160 from bfred, plus the £ 110 today =£270 minus the £ 132  i will lose to betfair profit £138.

ok latest after the sjpalace, ive won 110 on that race[, less comm], so now i have layed stradivarius 100 at 2.32, so  if stradivarius wins my profit will be 160 from bfred, and 110 today minus the lay of strad 132. profit £138.. if stradivarius loses i break even .[ more or less].

betfair shows 47 traded at 2.32

layed strad here , sorry it was £ 90 at 2.32 and 2.38 15.12 yesterday on here sorry about the con, , that how i was breaking even, i thought i did  £ 100    . have a look. im not trying to be a clever dick, all i wanted to do was help you people get a nice bet.{ there is a  scenario though , if strad gets pulled out I WILL LOSE 90 ON THE BET, Sshould have done it ante post] so im not as clever as i thought .

has gosden another entry in a group 1 fri/ sat, that would be ideal ?

oops liability not !£132 but £ 122.24 exact, need new glasses

strad 8/11, layed to soon,[]  but 4/5 to train a group 1 winner..and another 2 to go fri/sat.but i,ll lay at 11/10 now , profit approx £ 65 win or lose, idealfor me strad to lose and 1 of them outsiders fri/ sat to win .ps fancy raymond . tusk to win the race,£10 at 80s, and   £5 at magic circle 38

Big eeeeechheeee will be scrambling to make a quid

slippy blue. 17/06/19. 2/5 Are you for real       i gave you a 4/5 shot, when the true odds with 2 still to run(admittedly no hopers)tomorrow and sat was probably nearer 1/4 .(9/2, evens,9/4,20/1,33/1  at lease one winner one} , someone might get me the proper odds on that occuring.

Did anyone else do the bet?

well done elisjohn, not my sort of bet, even with fred.

i admit i will trade in running, and if i have a good bet i will trade/ arb it off. anyone who never done id say is a liar.  I did the arb on this to try to explain the bet to show some doubters. just read my post 7.45   be more like 1/6 than 1/4  . anyway thx ash,  . had £ 50 quid on sparkle roll at 12s today, didnt trade that off, must have hit around evs               .