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elisjohn
17 Jun 19 19:06
Joined:
Date Joined: 15 Jun 03
| Topic/replies: 17,201 | Blogger: elisjohn's blog
betfred r ascot specials. head to head, JG TO TRAIN A GROUP1 WINNER 4/5.   too darn hot    around 9/4, king of comedy 6/1, strad gold cup 13/8. DO THE MATHS.
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Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 17, 2019 7:13 PM BST
elisjohn,

But will one of them Wink
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 17, 2019 7:14 PM BST
win
Report elisjohn June 17, 2019 7:16 PM BST
doesnt matter does it, you can make a profit .
Report SlippyBlue June 17, 2019 7:16 PM BST
I don't fancy Too Darn Hot, that is not a bet for me personally.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 17, 2019 7:20 PM BST
Likewise Slippy
Report elisjohn June 17, 2019 7:24 PM BST
so lay it, then you still have strad and koc running for you. , lay them as well , you have so many options, but hurry when fred sees this itll be 2/5
Report ashleigh June 17, 2019 7:24 PM BST
arbing with who?
Report SlippyBlue June 17, 2019 7:31 PM BST
2/5 Laugh Are you for real elisjohn?Shocked
Report elisjohn June 17, 2019 7:33 PM BST
back 4/5 with fred, then just lay the jg horses on here , work your maths out its . .eg lay both tomorrow say tdh 200 at 9/4 and koc 50 at 7 , then worse scenario is losing 400, so you break even with your 4/5 fred bet. if both tomorrow lose then youve got 250 in the bank, then lay strad for say 250 , he wins cost you 375,    which youve already got 250 , plus now 400 with fred. if he loses you break even on the bet.
Report elisjohn June 17, 2019 7:33 PM BST
well what price do you make j gosden to train 1 group 1 winner this week
Report SlippyBlue June 17, 2019 7:34 PM BST
Too Darn Hot will not win tomorrow, it's a max lay for me.
Report elisjohn June 17, 2019 7:37 PM BST
ps forgot to put 500quid on the 4/5 in above post.
Report elisjohn June 17, 2019 7:41 PM BST
im only telling you this, coz i cant get on online with them, and not able to get to shop, i.ll be backing this to whatever i can if still 4/5 in morning. { the only bad scenario is if too darn hot/ strad is a nr]
Report elise June 17, 2019 8:03 PM BST
is this a wind up?
Report elisjohn June 17, 2019 8:09 PM BST
no. j gosden to train a group 1 winner this week is 4/5, considering tdarn hot is around 9/4 and strad is 6/4 , come on lads 4/5  with fred is steal of the century.{ or am i missing something here }.youve also got ko comedy running for you.
Report equine flew June 17, 2019 8:11 PM BST
If it is steal of the century, just take all the 4/5 and dont bother laying.... no like an arber.
Report elisjohn June 17, 2019 8:14 PM BST
youve all got me thinking here if my maths is bonkers, so i,ll ask  on another thread.
Report screaming from beneaththewaves June 17, 2019 8:28 PM BST
Andrew.in.Sweden 17 Jun 19 19:13 Joined: 22 Apr 19 | Topic/replies: 465 | Blogger: Andrew.in.Sweden's blog
elisjohn,

But will one of them win?


What's that got to do with it?

SlippyBlue 17 Jun 19 19:34 Joined: 11 Jun 12 | Topic/replies: 28,097 | Blogger: SlippyBlue's blog
Too Darn Hot will not win tomorrow, it's a max lay for me.


What's that got to do with it?
Report elisjohn June 17, 2019 8:36 PM BST
exactly, at least one that understands, thought i was going senile.
Report elisjohn June 17, 2019 8:38 PM BST
too darn hot win/ lose got nothing to do with it, strad win/ lose as well . there is money to be made, that my post.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 17, 2019 8:41 PM BST
elisjohn,

I understand the logic now, i wasn't thinking straight.

Good luck.
Report screaming from beneaththewaves June 17, 2019 8:51 PM BST
Too Darn Hot 3.35 to lay = 30%
Stradivarius 2.5 to lay = 40%

So just those two come to 70%, i.e. a 4/9 shot.

And Fred is apparently offering 4/5.

Yet there are punters out there whose first reaction genuinely is "I don't fancy one of them" and "I've never understood this arbing lark."
Report elisjohn June 17, 2019 8:54 PM BST
so add k o com approx 7/1 to the mix , then whats  the approx odds , thx scream. still 4/5 online
Report screaming from beneaththewaves June 17, 2019 8:56 PM BST
Sorry, Andrew. Didn't see your last post.
Report screaming from beneaththewaves June 17, 2019 8:58 PM BST
If you can lay King at 8.0 (12.5%), then it's 82.5% (about 2/11).

A/Cs closed, and SP only in his shops for me, but there you go.
Report equine flew June 17, 2019 8:58 PM BST
Easiest way to think about this sort of probability questions is to consider, what is the odds on none of the above winning.   So this would be a straight forward treble at reverse the odds.  4/6, 4/9 and 1/7.   This would pay 7/4.

So the converse of none of them winning, is at least one of them winning, so the odds would be 4/7
Report screaming from beneaththewaves June 17, 2019 9:02 PM BST
You're omitting the three possibilities of two of them winning, as well as the possibility of all three winning.

It's a patent rather than a treble.
Report equine flew June 17, 2019 9:04 PM BST
Your maths are wrong screaming.  You cannot combine the probabilities in the way you have done, as these are independent events and not in the same market.
Report elisjohn June 17, 2019 9:05 PM BST
no 3 cant win, kocom same race as tdhot, but he might have another runner in a g1, checked but  i dont think he has [ might have missed one]
Report equine flew June 17, 2019 9:06 PM BST
No I am not, I am taking the inverse of no winners (which is one or more winners).  Both these probabilities must = 1.0.

So if no winners is 4/7, the inverse is 7/4
Report elisjohn June 17, 2019 9:07 PM BST
im lost with the % etc , but top my head 4/5 was value .
Report screaming from beneaththewaves June 17, 2019 9:08 PM BST
I'd forgotten King Of Comedy was in the same race. I just looked at the two shorties, and that was enough to make Fred's offer a mad price.
Report screaming from beneaththewaves June 17, 2019 9:11 PM BST
Equine Flew: "one or more winners" is not the inverse of the "to lose" treble. It's the inverse of the singles, doubles and treble.

That's if they were all in different races, which they're not anyway.
Report elisjohn June 17, 2019 9:13 PM BST
thx for thisequine/ screaming, thought with the earlier posts that i was losing it.
Report elisjohn June 17, 2019 9:18 PM BST
so the best way to maximise  the 4/5, would be lay both tomorrow and hoping .  both lose ,  and then lay stra , and hoping he wins. [ i think]Confused.
Report elisjohn June 17, 2019 9:44 PM BST
has anyone had the 4/5 ?, still available
Report elisjohn June 18, 2019 12:10 PM BST
backed j gosden to train a group 1 winner this week £200 max at 4/5.
layed too darn hot £80 at 3.25     liability £150 .layed king of comedy £30 at 7, liability £100. so if tdh wins i win £10 on the bet, if koc wins i win £60.   neither win i win £110 with stradvarious  to come.                        ,
Report Brian June 18, 2019 12:50 PM BST
Nice one Elisjohn.
Report SlippyBlue June 18, 2019 4:36 PM BST

Jun 17, 2019 -- 1:34PM, SlippyBlue wrote:


Too Darn Hot will not win tomorrow, it's a max lay for me.


Told you.

Report StillLearning June 18, 2019 4:41 PM BST
good shout elisjohn
Report elisjohn June 18, 2019 4:43 PM BST
ok latest after the sjpalace, ive won 110 on that race[, less comm], so now i have layed stradivarius 100 at 2.32, so  if stradivarius wins my profit will be 160 from bfred, and 110 today minus the lay of strad 132. profit £138.. if stradivarius loses i break even .[ more or less].
Report elise June 18, 2019 4:48 PM BST
i'll clarify my post, how the feck can you get on with an online book for that amount?
Report elisjohn June 18, 2019 4:51 PM BST
ive had 200 quid win with fred this morning, ive layed on here, i told you yesterday, it was a no brainer.
Report elisjohn June 18, 2019 4:53 PM BST
andrew and screaming  understood it , wasnt rocket science
Report elisjohn June 18, 2019 4:55 PM BST
listen, fair play i posted this for you all yesterday to get on
Report ProSniper June 18, 2019 4:58 PM BST
Quite a bit of work for some crumbs. Besides, you shouldn't be encouraging more arbing filth. Them and pig bookies make the gambling arena a much sadder place.
Report elise June 18, 2019 4:59 PM BST
you still don't understand, how do you get on, I can't get 2 quid with them?
Report elisjohn June 18, 2019 5:04 PM BST
i dont get on  online, wasnt any work really. but pro, my thread said for arbers , crumbs yes,  rather but some might have had a few thousand on the 4/5 for odds that should have been 2/5 or more, see screaming posts then there was nice money to be had .
Report mmmalushka June 18, 2019 5:37 PM BST
So after commission if Stradivarious loses you break even,if it wins you get £33 from trading or £13ish  if you arb it.
Report elisjohn June 18, 2019 6:28 PM BST
after commission if strad loses yes break even , but if strad win i make £160 from bfred, plus the £ 110 today =£270 minus the £ 132  i will lose to betfair profit £138.
Report sands of time June 19, 2019 8:15 AM BST
ok latest after the sjpalace, ive won 110 on that race[, less comm], so now i have layed stradivarius 100 at 2.32, so  if stradivarius wins my profit will be 160 from bfred, and 110 today minus the lay of strad 132. profit £138.. if stradivarius loses i break even .[ more or less].

betfair shows 47 traded at 2.32
Report elisjohn June 19, 2019 8:28 AM BST
layed strad here , sorry it was £ 90 at 2.32 and 2.38 15.12 yesterday on here sorry about the con, , that how i was breaking even, i thought i did  £ 100    . have a look. im not trying to be a clever dick, all i wanted to do was help you people get a nice bet.{ there is a  scenario though , if strad gets pulled out I WILL LOSE 90 ON THE BET, Sshould have done it ante post] so im not as clever as i thought Grin.
Report elisjohn June 19, 2019 8:30 AM BST
has gosden another entry in a group 1 fri/ sat, that would be ideal ?
Report elisjohn June 19, 2019 8:33 AM BST
oops liability not !£132 but £ 122.24 exact, need new glasses
Report elisjohn June 20, 2019 4:21 PM BST
strad 8/11, layed to soon,[]  but 4/5 to train a group 1 winner.Laugh.and another 2 to go fri/sat.but i,ll lay at 11/10 now , profit approx £ 65 win or lose, idealfor me strad to lose and 1 of them outsiders fri/ sat to win .ps fancy raymond . tusk to win the race,£10 at 80s, and   £5 at magic circle 38
Report Burkey1885 June 20, 2019 4:31 PM BST
Big eeeeechheeee will be scrambling to make a quid
Report elisjohn June 20, 2019 7:45 PM BST
slippy blue. 17/06/19. 2/5 Laugh Are you for realShocked       i gave you a 4/5 shot, when the true odds with 2 still to run(admittedly no hopers)tomorrow and sat was probably nearer 1/4Cool .(9/2, evens,9/4,20/1,33/1  at lease one winner one} , someone might get me the proper odds on that occuring.
Report elisjohn June 20, 2019 7:47 PM BST
Did anyone else do the bet?
Report ashleigh June 20, 2019 7:55 PM BST
well done elisjohn, not my sort of bet, even with fred.Cool
Report elisjohn June 20, 2019 8:10 PM BST
i admit i will trade in running, and if i have a good bet i will trade/ arb it off. anyone who never done id say is a liar.  I did the arb on this to try to explain the bet to show some doubters. just read my post 7.45   be more like 1/6 than 1/4  . anyway thx ash,  . had £ 50 quid on sparkle roll at 12s today, didnt trade that off, must have hit around evs               .
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